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What are the Expectations in the end for a Traded Up for QB?


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3 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

The expectation is that within 3 yrs you will have a QB that can win you the Super Bowl and make you a contender for many years to come.  It's not all about instant gratification

  The point is if everybody knows that they are bidding on a Corvette then they will be offering more than Chevette type money.  The Bills are not getting Rosen, Darnold, etc.  with 3 first round picks if 3/4 of the league thinks the ceiling on these guys is 4,500 yards, 30 TD's, etc..  The Bills can't throw throw a half dozen high picks at getting such a prospect and not have it effect building the team in general.  Even with big cap room next year I don't see a sure thing FA that will come here without breaking the bank.  I really don't see much in the way in sure FA period.  At least not like in the days when we got guys like Chris Spielman and Bryce Paup to come here.

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2 hours ago, SoTier said:

I don't believe you.  Look at all the whining about Watkins "not being worth 2 firsts".  If the Bills gave up a boatload of picks to move into the Top 5 to take a QB and he wasn't at least as good as Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees (ie, an elite QB), he'd be crucified, so the OP's criteria is probably far more realistic about fans' expectations than yours. 

 

 

I never once asked you to believe me nor do I care if you do or don't. Cheers. 

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I would try and get a guy who is a accurate passer and can anticipate routes and get the ball to a spot where the WR will be. I would like a QB who is dedicated to the position and is always trying to get better with film study and practice. A guy who is easy to coach and understands what his coach wants him to do within the offense.  

 

The QB's I like are Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen and Luke Falk.

 

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25 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  The point is if everybody knows that they are bidding on a Corvette then they will be offering more than Chevette type money.  The Bills are not getting Rosen, Darnold, etc.  with 3 first round picks if 3/4 of the league thinks the ceiling on these guys is 4,500 yards, 30 TD's, etc..  The Bills can't throw throw a half dozen high picks at getting such a prospect and not have it effect building the team in general.  Even with big cap room next year I don't see a sure thing FA that will come here without breaking the bank.  I really don't see much in the way in sure FA period.  At least not like in the days when we got guys like Chris Spielman and Bryce Paup to come here.

most other teams have a QB.  who can outbid us when we have 2x 1st round picks and 2x 2nd round picks this year?  Rosen is absolutely a future 4000 yard passer.  He's going to at the very least be better than Cousins who is going to make $30 mil per season but we are going to get him for about 1/3 the price.  use the rest of that money to fill whatever holes you can't fill in the draft over the next 2 years.  it's a no brainer

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10 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

I would need:

1.). 15-16 Seaons as the starter

 

2.). Playing in over 248-250 games

 

3.). 10 seasons of playoff appearances

 

4.). 7-8 Division Titles

 

5.). 2-3 Super Bowl Appearances

 

6.). Super Bowl Victory is a must.

Bills QB standard during drought:

 

1. >1-3 as a starter

2. Playing in under 48-50 games

3. 0 playoff app

4. 0 division titles

5. 0 SB app

6. 0 SB wins

 

Come on man, there has to be a happy  medium here!

 

Maybe 10-12 years

150-200 Games

5-7 playoffs

3-5 divisions

2-3 SB app

1-2 SB

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10 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

most other teams have a QB.  who can outbid us when we have 2x 1st round picks and 2x 2nd round picks this year?  Rosen is absolutely a future 4000 yard passer.  He's going to at the very least be better than Cousins who is going to make $30 mil per season but we are going to get him for about 1/3 the price.  use the rest of that money to fill whatever holes you can't fill in the draft over the next 2 years.  it's a no brainer

  For a team like Miami or Cincy their single first round pick is near equal to our two first round picks.  The same with their single second  is close to what our two seconds are worth.  Either the Bengals or the Dolphins can match us and only give up two picks while we would have to give up a minimum of four.  For a 4,000-4,500 yard passer I would think our competition would give up more picks like next year's first and third.  For us to match that then we would have to give up 5 picks minimum.  I would not take 3/4 of the league to see the bidding go wild.  I could see it with just 4 or 5 very serious teams.  Further, I would bet that most of the top 5 teams are not interested in trading down or least going much past number 6 or 7.  I still think the Giants take their guy to groom as Eli's replacement.  Maybe they work something out with Cleveland but they are not going to drop below the Jets or Broncos.

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42 minutes ago, rodneykm said:

 

I never once asked you to believe me nor do I care if you do or don't. Cheers. 

 

Dude, I'm much more tolerant of QBs than a lot of posters here -- I know this simply because I don't hate Tyrod or Fitzy simply because they weren't franchise QBs -- but if the Bills gave up 4 or 5 picks to move up to the top of the draft and all they got was somebody only about as good as Cutler, Flacco, Dalton or Tannehill, I'd be po'd big time.  I wouldn't be upset if the Bills sat at 21 and got a clone of one of them, but giving up the tops of two drafts for a Flacco or Tannehilll is criminal by any standard anyone could possibly devise ... and the Buffalo Bills fan base in general isn't nearly as tolerant as I am.

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2 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Dude, I'm much more tolerant of QBs than a lot of posters here -- I know this simply because I don't hate Tyrod or Fitzy simply because they weren't franchise QBs -- but if the Bills gave up 4 or 5 picks to move up to the top of the draft and all they got was somebody only about as good as Cutler, Flacco, Dalton or Tannehill, I'd be po'd big time.  I wouldn't be upset if the Bills sat at 21 and got a clone of one of them, but giving up the tops of two drafts for a Flacco or Tannehilll is criminal by any standard anyone could possibly devise ... and the Buffalo Bills fan base in general isn't nearly as tolerant as I am.

  Getting somebody as good as Cutler, Dalton, etc. is probably the most reasonable expectation here.  

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48 minutes ago, horned dogs said:

Bills QB standard during drought:

 

1. >1-3 as a starter

2. Playing in under 48-50 games

3. 0 playoff app

4. 0 division titles

5. 0 SB app

6. 0 SB wins

 

Come on man, there has to be a happy  medium here!

 

Maybe 10-12 years

150-200 Games

5-7 playoffs

3-5 divisions

2-3 SB app

1-2 SB

 

We always look at trades and try to debate who won the trade?  Was it a win for Buffalo? McCoy Trade was a win for Buffalo.

 

so how does trading everything for A QB become a win?

 

looking to get people’s idea of what a win would be for Buffalo.

 

maybe I went overboard with my expectations.  But this QB needs to seriously move the needle.

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11 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

I would need:

1.). 15-16 Seaons as the starter

 

2.). Playing in over 248-250 games

 

3.). 10 seasons of playoff appearances

 

4.). 7-8 Division Titles

 

5.). 2-3 Super Bowl Appearances

 

6.). Super Bowl Victory is a must.

 

That's it?  I would add 7.). Cure Cancer

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5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that it would be interesting to see how many QBs meet that criteria and how many were drafted in a trade up. Maybe Eli? Maybe Elway? 

Since 1990 the merger in 1970, only 3 (I think) meet the criteria. Favre, Peyton, and Brady. I'm not sure if Favre hit the division title number or not and I didn't feel like checking, but he hit everything else.

Edited by BuffaloHokie13
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To think that any QB we trade up for this year will have the ability to come in and compete at a high level right away is few and far between. We saw Deshaun Watson come in a few games in and dominate. Wentz and Goff took a year before they started showing what they could do. This could be a rough year for Buffalo even if we trade up for a high pick. Rosen is probably the most pro ready QB and even he will have a learning curve.

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The question is a valid one, in that you want to try project your return on investment. But, while the QB should elevate the team, more specifically the Offense in general, I'm not sure you can place entire team responsibility on one guy even the QB. Not to turn this into another nauseating thread about Tyrod, but as an example I think most think the Defense was "good enough" to win at least 2 more games, nullifying the need for the Cincinnati Comeback, and probably winning the game against the Jags. Just to show I'm not pulling just from recent Bills history, in 2002 Bledsoe had 4,300 yards and 24 TDs, but if you remember that season you remember watching so many wins slip away to a bad Defense. The next year the Defense was good and the Offense couldn't get it done. 

 

Point being, to measure just the QB and the Offense in general, I think the R.O.I. would need to be:

 

Offense ranked consistently in top 10, and specifically in passing yards, passing TDs, and total yards

Demonstrating consistent "comeback" wins by leading a drive in the 4th Quarter or OT to win the game in some fashion

Marked improvement in overall TDs, passing and rushing because I'm assuming the new QB can audible to a run in the Red Zone when warranted

A 12 year full year starter...10 would be marginally acceptable if shortened due to injuries within the season (even Brady had one)

Passing yards approaching or over 4,000 yards (it's the the modern NFL, Alex Smith just did it) every single year 

An ability to gut through minor injuries to start every game, because you can't be great if you don't play (refer to 4th point)

A decent citizen in Buffalo community (not a choir boy, but a decent guy) 

An easily recognized leader of the entire team on and off the field

I'd say Pro Bowler over multiple years, but it's just so hard now with Twitter, it is much more the popularity vote than anything else.

 

IMHO, these types of categories place the responsibility on him alone, and doesn't require him to play Defense / Special Teams or for the GM to get it right every single Draft or FA season....it allows him to shine and show that he's doing his part, which is ALL we can ask. It's up to the GM / FO staff / Coaches to maximize the rest of the players and take the whole team approach to win Super Bowls. 

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5 hours ago, billsredneck1 said:

 

i think rosen's a thin skinned california liberal that will probably always have some minor nagging injury.

not a good fit for the cold in buffalo...pass

 

the only qb i'd move up for is mayfield. if not sit tight and take rudolph.

Your Rosen assessment is perfect.  I wouldn't touch Baker but if Rudolph fell to us I take him.

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2 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  Getting somebody as good as Cutler, Dalton, etc. is probably the most reasonable expectation here.  

 

It might be realistic but fans aren't realistic.  Unless the team was good enough to win a Super Bowl or two (like Eli), my guess most would be very unforgiving.

 

2 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

 

We always look at trades and try to debate who won the trade?  Was it a win for Buffalo? McCoy Trade was a win for Buffalo.

 

so how does trading everything for A QB become a win?

 

looking to get people’s idea of what a win would be for Buffalo.

 

maybe I went overboard with my expectations.  But this QB needs to seriously move the needle.

 

Getting an elite QB is the only way to "win" after giving up a bunch of picks to trade up to the top 5 for a QB. 

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