MAJBobby Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 zzzzz Isnt Kiper supposed to retire already after his Jimmy Clausen " I will retire if he is not good comment" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luxy312 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said: I'm not arguing, but I'm not following your math. If there were 44 QBs picked in the top 20 in that time period and of those times, there were 6 occurrences of teams that also signed a FA QB, then I think the raw probability is 6/44 or a bit over 13%. Even with that, I think you have to consider the FA QBs that were available as well as what QBs were picked in the draft and how early/late they were selected. In the case of a team who was planning to draft a QB in round 1, whether they also signed a FA QB would have depended on what FA QBs were available and what veteran QB(s) that team already had on their roster. I think each situation has to be considered separately. Denver, for example, currently has Paxton Lynch and Trevor Simeon. They also currently have an excellent defense and a good amount of talent on offense as well. I think it may be that Denver says, "we know that Case Keenum is better than what we currently have, but we think Baker Mayfield has much better long-term potential. We also don't think Mayfield is quite ready to start". If they think that way, it would make sense for them to sign a vet like Keenum AND draft a QB at 5. Now, no debate, if Denver signs Cousins to a big contract, they won't likely take a QB early. The Jets, on the other hand, are not so close to being a contender and likely would not see value in signing a veteran AND drafting a QB. If they were inclined to go that route, they'd just keep McCown as that veteran and draft a young QB. Beyond the Broncos and Jets, Miami (11), Cinci (12), Washington (13) and Arizona (15) could all consider a QB in round 1. Of those teams, I think only Arizona would consider signing a FA QB because I don't think the FA QBs (other than Cousins) are clear upgrades over Tannehill, Dalton and Alex Smith. Yet, I don't think any of those teams are so sold on their current QB that they would not strongly consider taking a QB. You do realize that Washington just gave Alex Smith a huge contract worth over $20m per year and $60m in guarantees right? They're not drafting a QB in the first round. I'll guarantee you that right now. Cinci's contract with Dalton goes through 2020 and is cap friendly. I would rate that a solid "NO" as well. The speculation was originally about the possibility of McCarron becoming the starter, and he's now a free agent. It was also coupled with the speculation of a potential head coaching change, and the team signed Marvin Lewis to a 2-year deal just a month ago. Actual statistics would also tell you that the free agents out there are not necessarily an upgrade over Dalton, unless you're talking about Cousins. The TBD's right now in my opinion are Minnesota who, if they don't go after Cousins, will sign at least one or two of the guys on the roster last season. For the Broncos, Jets, Dolphins, and Cardinals there's no doubt they need a QB. The Broncos and Jets both also have need of a left tackle. I guess I just find the notion that all of these teams are going to reach for a QB, when they have other pressing issues is a big reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Luxy312 said: You do realize that Washington just gave Alex Smith a huge contract worth over $20m per year and $60m in guarantees right? They're not drafting a QB in the first round. I'll guarantee you that right now. Cinci's contract with Dalton goes through 2020 and is cap friendly. I would rate that a solid "NO" as well. The speculation was originally about the possibility of McCarron becoming the starter, and he's now a free agent. It was also coupled with the speculation of a potential head coaching change, and the team signed Marvin Lewis to a 2-year deal just a month ago. Actual statistics would also tell you that the free agents out there are not necessarily an upgrade over Dalton, unless you're talking about Cousins. The TBD's right now in my opinion are Minnesota who, if they don't go after Cousins, will sign at least one or two of the guys on the roster last season. For the Broncos, Jets, Dolphins, and Cardinals there's no doubt they need a QB. The Broncos and Jets both also have need of a left tackle. I guess I just find the notion that all of these teams are going to reach for a QB, when they have other pressing issues is a big reach. Sorry didn’t read your post closely enough earlier. If all that holds true, Miami and Cards could both take QBs before Buffalo picks. Even if Denver or Jets sign Cousins, I think Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield will all be gone before a pick that the Bills could realistically get to without giving up a King's ransom. My mental picture of those 3 is: Rudolph: highest floor, lowest ceiling but could be decent to good starter, Jackson and Allen: Highest ceilings, but lowest floors - could be great, or never even be a decent starter. I think that Darnold and Rosen will at least be competent starters at the least. I like Mayfield a lot, but there is some chance that he doesn't make it because of his size. Edited February 21, 2018 by OldTimer1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay_Fixit Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 4 hours ago, joesixpack said: Absolutely WORST possible outcome for the bills. Darnold to the Jets, Rosen to the fish, Bills take OL and CB in 1st round. I'd have to kill kittens WITH puppies if this was the outcome. Good thing it’s a mock. By Mel Kiper. Mocks = terrible (no matter who does them) Mel Kiper = terrible Mock + Mel Kiper = Flat earther 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 (edited) 4 hours ago, joesixpack said: Absolutely WORST possible outcome for the bills. Darnold to the Jets, Rosen to the fish, Bills take OL and CB in 1st round. I'd have to kill kittens WITH puppies if this was the outcome. Honestly, Kiper is utterly terrible at mocking drafts. His mocks (literally all versions each draft year) he does every year are never anywhere close to what actually happens. He is about as successful at mocking the picks as that nut job Jim Cramer is at picking winners in the stock market. Might as well just throw darts at pictures. Edited February 21, 2018 by Alphadawg7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Beebe Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 4 hours ago, H2o said: I have wondered how Kiper has kept his job for a looooong time. McShay, who also is not the greatest by any means, makes Kiper look stupid over and over. It kind of reminds me of the scouting department version of John Clayton\Sean Salisbury. I remember when we drafted Thurman Thomas in the 2nd round and Kiper said Thurman was a waste of a pick. I have laughed about Kiper since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Da webster guy Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 The second I see a mock with Bills taking a center I ignore the rest of the guy's picks. We have a solid guy in Groy and a hundred other holes to fill. Mayock was head and shoulders better than anyone in terms of his mock accuracy last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffAlone Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Better yet it cbs' latest mock. Bills get Mayfield at 5, and Vea at 22. I'd do backflips if this happened! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luxy312 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, BuffAlone said: Better yet it cbs' latest mock. Bills get Mayfield at 5, and Vea at 22. I'd do backflips if this happened! I would personally lose my mind. Friday will be a vacation day if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloaggie Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 As everyone ponders moving up in the draft, here are the draft values of the Bills' picks R1-800 R1-780 R2-370 R2-350 R3-116 R4-60 R5-31.4 R5-28.2 Total is 2535, #2 pick has a 2600 value. 1400 is #8 pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffAlone Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 1 minute ago, buffaloaggie said: As everyone ponders moving up in the draft, here are the draft values of the Bills' picks R1-800 R1-780 R2-370 R2-350 R3-116 R4-60 R5-31.4 R5-28.2 Total is 2535, #2 pick has a 2600 value. 1400 is #8 pick. Cool...let's not forget next year's picks tho. Also, this mock had us trading up to 5, not 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, buffaloaggie said: As everyone ponders moving up in the draft, here are the draft values of the Bills' picks R1-800 R1-780 R2-370 R2-350 R3-116 R4-60 R5-31.4 R5-28.2 Total is 2535, #2 pick has a 2600 value. 1400 is #8 pick. That looks like old Jimmy Johnson values. Some may use them, but they're a bit outdated since the wage scale came into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
par73 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Worst mock I've seen for the Bills. A center in the 1st and another DB? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloaggie Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: That looks like old Jimmy Johnson values. Some may use them, but they're a bit outdated since the wage scale came into play. Agreed. Bills would give up more for not as high a pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 1 minute ago, buffaloaggie said: Agreed. Bills would give up more for not as high a pick. Not really. The new chart values + trade up tax puts our first 2 picks at equal value with pick 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloaggie Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Not really. The new chart values + trade up tax puts our first 2 picks at equal value with pick 5 The tax burden is on the Bills, so I'd only see a #7 for our two 1st rounders. Where is the new draft value chart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xRUSHx Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 5 hours ago, joesixpack said: Absolutely WORST possible outcome for the bills. Darnold to the Jets, Rosen to the fish, Bills take OL and CB in 1st round. I'd have to kill kittens WITH puppies if this was the outcome. Sadly this could be true, we could end up in the same OBD way of drafting. I wanted to point to Whaley as the QB purgatory enabler but sadly this could be a OBD issue. If they don't move up we will know who to point at when they miss out on a QB again. I agree by far the worse scenario to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misterbluesky Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 5 hours ago, joesixpack said: Absolutely WORST possible outcome for the bills. Darnold to the Jets, Rosen to the fish, Bills take OL and CB in 1st round. I'd have to kill kittens WITH puppies if this was the outcome. I could see part of that working..Daniels at RG.But a corner? How does he know if the Beane counter will or will not pay bank to Gaines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, buffaloaggie said: The tax burden is on the Bills, so I'd only see a #7 for our two 1st rounders. Where is the new draft value chart? Rich Hill released it last year around draft time. And yes, I know the tax burden is on the team moving up. 21 + 22 is worth ~110% of pick number 5 based on every draft trade made from 2011-2016. In that same time period trading into the top 2 has carried an average tax of 28%, trading into the top 5 has carried an average tax of 9% and trading into the top 10 has had an average tax of 4%. He actually put out 2 and they're different, not sure why. But this one is the only one I've found where if you go back and check any trade since 2011 the values actually make sense in the end. because of that, it is definitely my preferred one. Edited February 21, 2018 by BuffaloHokie13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yard Monkey Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Don Beebe said: I remember when we drafted Thurman Thomas in the 2nd round and Kiper said Thurman was a waste of a pick. I have laughed about Kiper since then. Your post brought back memories of that draft so I looked it up and found this article> http://articles.latimes.com/1988-04-25/sports/sp-1164_1_nfl-draft Funny how wrong the writer is about pretty much everything related to the draft! Other than "Mel Kiper, whoever he is, and his 200-word sentences" Wonder if he would have believed that the draft would turn into a 3+ day event and newspapers would be out of business in 30 years (vs. his prediction that draft are to be covered by newspapers and not TV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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