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Scot McCloughan on Kirk Cousins: "I Don't See Special" - Headed for UFA


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On 1/19/2018 at 6:09 PM, GoBills808 said:

Of course he doesn't. Him and Snyder are the reason Cousin is going to be available. Using a McCloughan quote on Cousins is laughable. 

 

Have you seen this guy's drafts, either with the Niners or Washington? He doesn't see special period.

Are you kidding me?  If it weren't for him being a drunk that sometimes goes AWOL he'd be one of the most coveted Front Office people in the NFL.  He is responsible for building the Seahawks into a juggernaut (Russell Wilson, Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, etc.) and turning the Redskins from a team with bloated veteran FA contracts into a younger more talented team.

 

Like all guys that are GMs he didn't always knock it out of the park in the draft, but he is talented at putting together a roster that wins.

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Buffalo Bills
 
If the Jaguars seemed like a quarterback away from the Super Bowl, that was legitimately the case for the Bills. Remember: This is the same outfit that thought so little of Tyrod Taylor that first-year coach Sean McDermott benched him in Week 11 for rookie Nathan Peterman, who promptly threw five interceptions in 30 minutes. McDermott had no choice but to reinsert Taylor, who started the rest of the season. But his lackluster performance in the playoffs reinforced the idea that the Bills, who returned to the postseason for the first time since 1999, needed a franchise quarterback and that would be at the top of the offseason to-do list. Buffalo has playmakers in LeSean McCoy, Zay Jones, Kelvin Benjamin and Charles Clay, and Cousins would add some much-needed balance to a one-dimensional offense.
 
The Bills have $30.9 million in cap space in 2018, according to Spotrac.
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1 minute ago, prissythecat said:

 

If true,  am sure that will disappoint many here who want Cousins

 

I believe it's philosophical with Beane building via the draft with young cost controlled players as he's stated on several occasions in addition to salary cap considerations that have been complicated by Wood's unanticipated retirement. 

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5 hours ago, Ayjent said:

Are you kidding me?  If it weren't for him being a drunk that sometimes goes AWOL he'd be one of the most coveted Front Office people in the NFL.  He is responsible for building the Seahawks into a juggernaut (Russell Wilson, Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, etc.) and turning the Redskins from a team with bloated veteran FA contracts into a younger more talented team.

 

Like all guys that are GMs he didn't always knock it out of the park in the draft, but he is talented at putting together a roster that wins.

 

McCloughan would like that to be the story "he is responsible for building the Seahawks into a juggernaut"

Remember John Schneider was the GM and Carroll has a lot of say on personnel matters too.

 

I'm not saying he isn't a gifted personnel talent evaluater, but to transition that into "most coveted FO people" is IMO a stretch.  Personally I think he may be one of those guys like Whaley (except better) who can evaluate talent but a few pieces short of the strategic/business aspect of building a team.

 

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5 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

 

I'm sorry, but even if you don't love cousins, you need to at least bring him in for a workout, talk to him, see what he's all about.

I'll be very disappointed in the front office if they don't at least give him a good look.

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4 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I'm sorry, but even if you don't love cousins, you need to at least bring him in for a workout, talk to him, see what he's all about.

I'll be very disappointed in the front office if they don't at least give him a good look.

 

That will be totally up to him.  He sounds like the kind of guy who will do his homework on all teams interested in his services. 

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Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

That will be totally up to him.  He sounds like the kind of guy who will do his homework on all teams interested in his services. 

 

Fair.

I mean I think I'd be disappointed if we didn't try to at least pursue him.

Obviously if he's not interested that's his prerogative.

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2 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Fair.

I mean I think I'd be disappointed if we didn't try to at least pursue him.

Obviously if he's not interested that's his prerogative.

Of course he and his agent are interested into talking to everyone, doesn't that increase the likelihood of getting a better deal.

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9 hours ago, Ayjent said:

Of course he and his agent are interested into talking to everyone, doesn't that increase the likelihood of getting a better deal.

it does.  Also ..... 

http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/268120/an-nfl-trade-in-january-why-the-alex-smith-deal-was-possible

 

discussing the announcement of the "trade" 

How could this happen in January?

I didn't say it was the first moment teams could discuss trades. It's perfectly legal, and more common than you might realize, for teams to exchange ideas about potential deals in the days, weeks and even months leading up to the official start of the trading period. The only thing they can't do is finalize the paperwork. That means neither team can discuss it publicly, but there's nothing stopping Smith from doing so.

 

If the paperwork hasn't been done yet, are we sure the deal will happen?

No, not with 100 percent certainty. Either side could back out without penalty, given that the trade hasn't officially happened. This is a verbal agreement. But now that the news has leaked, backing out would do real and serious damage to a team's credibility. What team, player or agent would feel comfortable doing a future deal with a partner that has a known history of reneging?

 

Is that why the news was leaked?

I honestly don't know why and how it was leaked. But the public nature of the terms seems to me like a pretty strong guardrail against cold feet

 

 

----  Dunkirk Chanwhack went rogue

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THE VERDICT

If the Bills do indeed move on from Taylor, I understand there aren’t many other terrific options that appear available for the team to take a step forward at quarterback.  But drafting one with pick 21 or 22, or trading up to get one in the middle of the first round, will allow them to pick their own player probably 6-7 years younger than Cousins and develop him how they see fit.  Also, due to the rookie wage scale, the cost of that QB on their cap (if picked at #21) starts at roughly $2.1 million and taps out at $3.7 million at the end of his first contract in four years.  That’s an extra $22-25 million per year they could spend on other positions to help put as many resources around their young, hopeful franchise QB.

 

That said, even though I like Cousins and will be the first to tell you he's an immediate upgrade at the position for them, I don’t think the Bills should pursue him at these prices.  Head coach Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane have done a good job sticking with their own plan and process of acquiring draft picks, building the team through the draft, shedding hugh contracts, and setting themselves up for a much better model for long-term success.  

 

Stick with the plan.

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3 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

THE VERDICT

If the Bills do indeed move on from Taylor, I understand there aren’t many other terrific options that appear available for the team to take a step forward at quarterback.  But drafting one with pick 21 or 22, or trading up to get one in the middle of the first round, will allow them to pick their own player probably 6-7 years younger than Cousins and develop him how they see fit.  Also, due to the rookie wage scale, the cost of that QB on their cap (if picked at #21) starts at roughly $2.1 million and taps out at $3.7 million at the end of his first contract in four years.  That’s an extra $22-25 million per year they could spend on other positions to help put as many resources around their young, hopeful franchise QB.

 

That said, even though I like Cousins and will be the first to tell you he's an immediate upgrade at the position for them, I don’t think the Bills should pursue him at these prices.  Head coach Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane have done a good job sticking with their own plan and process of acquiring draft picks, building the team through the draft, shedding hugh contracts, and setting themselves up for a much better model for long-term success.  

 

Stick with the plan.

This is a really good article, as far as it goes.   It's really good in laying out the cap situation, what Cousins has done in his career so far, etc.  

 

It's really good about the contract the Cousins will get.   His stats put him in the top 10, and his contract will put him there.   Sure, he'll be at the top of the list, but that's only because the value of QB contracts keeps going up.   What he will get isn't going to be out of line.  

 

But it's pretty weak on analysis.   He concludes that McBeane should "stick with the plan," but McBeane have never said that the plan is to get a QB in the draft.   They have said they want to build through draft with some free agents added in.   So signing a free agent quarterback isn't necessarily contrary to the plan.  

 

He also just says McBeane would like to have a rookie whom they can develop the way they want, and that way they'll have a younger guy.   Well, 

 

What we need to know, and we don't, is what kind of quarterback McBeane want.  If Cousins is exactly what they're looking for, why wouldn't they sign him?   Maybe it's Bridgewater.   I don't know, but Sal doesn't explain why McBeane wouldn't sign a free agent QB.   

 

He also says McBeane would prefer to draft a rookie whom they can develop the way they want, and that rookie would be several years younger.   He doesn't discuss the downside of that approach.    First, if you get the wrong guy, you have nothing three or four  years from now.   If you have Cousins, you've already gotten three or four good years from him, and you probably have three or four more good ones.   Plenty of time to develop someone.   Second, even if you have the right guy, it might take 3 or 4 years to get him to top 10 performance.   It took Brady that long, Luck isn't there yet.   Sal doesn't take into consideration how long it will take for the drafted guy to be worth it, and he doesn't take into consideration the odds that the guy won't ever develop.  Plus, by the time the rookie gets good, he'll need a new contract, and all the cap space you've saved by not signing Cousins and then spent of others will be gone, and you'll need to be managing cap for a $30 or $35 million contract.  

 

Essentially, all he's said is that he'd take his chances in the draft.   Doing that gives some higher upside potential but also gives him higher likelihood that his QB doesn't pan out.   

 

Fact is, we're not going to know anything until we see what McBeane do.   They're not going to tell us what's important to them, and without than, we just don't know. 

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4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This is a really good article, as far as it goes.   It's really good in laying out the cap situation, what Cousins has done in his career so far, etc.  

 

It's really good about the contract the Cousins will get.   His stats put him in the top 10, and his contract will put him there.   Sure, he'll be at the top of the list, but that's only because the value of QB contracts keeps going up.   What he will get isn't going to be out of line.  

 

But it's pretty weak on analysis.   He concludes that McBeane should "stick with the plan," but McBeane have never said that the plan is to get a QB in the draft.   They have said they want to build through draft with some free agents added in.   So signing a free agent quarterback isn't necessarily contrary to the plan.  

 

He also just says McBeane would like to have a rookie whom they can develop the way they want, and that way they'll have a younger guy.   Well, 

 

What we need to know, and we don't, is what kind of quarterback McBeane want.  If Cousins is exactly what they're looking for, why wouldn't they sign him?   Maybe it's Bridgewater.   I don't know, but Sal doesn't explain why McBeane wouldn't sign a free agent QB.   

 

He also says McBeane would prefer to draft a rookie whom they can develop the way they want, and that rookie would be several years younger.   He doesn't discuss the downside of that approach.    First, if you get the wrong guy, you have nothing three or four  years from now.   If you have Cousins, you've already gotten three or four good years from him, and you probably have three or four more good ones.   Plenty of time to develop someone.   Second, even if you have the right guy, it might take 3 or 4 years to get him to top 10 performance.   It took Brady that long, Luck isn't there yet.   Sal doesn't take into consideration how long it will take for the drafted guy to be worth it, and he doesn't take into consideration the odds that the guy won't ever develop.  Plus, by the time the rookie gets good, he'll need a new contract, and all the cap space you've saved by not signing Cousins and then spent of others will be gone, and you'll need to be managing cap for a $30 or $35 million contract.  

 

Essentially, all he's said is that he'd take his chances in the draft.   Doing that gives some higher upside potential but also gives him higher likelihood that his QB doesn't pan out.   

 

Fact is, we're not going to know anything until we see what McBeane do.   They're not going to tell us what's important to them, and without than, we just don't know. 

As usual, nice analysis! The Bills would be crazy not to at least consider going after Cousins. The opportunity to get a good QB, who could be on the rise, without having to give up picks is unusual. I just like the idea of building with all those draft picks, and not having to risk that your drafted QB doesn't pan out. 

 

My second preference, has been, and remains a trade for Andruw Luck.

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3 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Can you site a couple of examples of how he can win in the clutch?  I haven't seen it. 

So it was a little work, but Pro Football Reference has data about 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives.    You can find the games, if you want, but just looking at the totals, Cousins is your guy. 

 

2015 through 2017, 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives:   Matt Stafford had 15.  Cousins and Carr had 12.  Ryan and Palmer had 10.   Brees, Wilson and Eli had 9.   Beside the fact that Cousins is second on the list, notice anything else?   They're all big names, all guys you'd ordinarily put in the top 10 or, in Eli's case, has won two Super Bowls.   These are good QBs.   

 

Cousins?  Clutch?   Check that box.    

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49 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

So it was a little work, but Pro Football Reference has data about 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives.    You can find the games, if you want, but just looking at the totals, Cousins is your guy. 

 

2015 through 2017, 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives:   Matt Stafford had 15.  Cousins and Carr had 12.  Ryan and Palmer had 10.   Brees, Wilson and Eli had 9.   Beside the fact that Cousins is second on the list, notice anything else?   They're all big names, all guys you'd ordinarily put in the top 10 or, in Eli's case, has won two Super Bowls.   These are good QBs.   

 

Cousins?  Clutch?   Check that box.    

 

Thanks for the research.

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3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I was surprised and I'd guess you were too.  

 

I was. But admittedly I only watch him when he's on MNF or TNF.  Last time I saw him it wasn't so good when he threw a pick in the 4th while they still had a chance to win.  But I saw Jim Kelly do that a few times too. But more power to him.

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