Jackson, Rudolph or Pass

[Guest K-GunJimKelly12]

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

USC finished as the #12 team in the country this year.

 

Darnold had a great running back, and a lot of young talent at WR that will wind up in the NFL in a year or two.

Darnold looks like the second coming of Matt Stafford. Great athletes with a big arm who get into trouble trusting their arm strength which leads to turnovers. 

 

I don't think Stafford is a great QB, but Darnold seems like a guy who should be a productive pro who starts for a while. 

That could definitely happen.  I am no expert, I just watch a lot of football.  

Edited January 19, 2018 by K-GunJimKelly12

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said:

That could definitely happen.  I am no expert, I just watch a lot of football.  

 

I'm obviously just guessing. Just pointing out that I see a ton of similarities between Darnold and Stafford. 

[hemma]

Chris Trapasso @ CBS actually has Rudolph as the best QB (overall #10), followed by Jackson, with Rosen and Darnold down the list.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2018-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-mason-rudolph-reclaims-top-qb-spot-roquan-smith-rising/

 

Who knows what our board looks like ... could be a lot closer to Trapasso's than the other 99 'experts'.

I'm guessing that the top 6 or 7 will be invites.

[GunnerBill]

51 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

He did, but he was also impacted by drops more than any other QB in this draft class.

 

Is there a basis for this statement?  It didn't jump off the tape at me the drops I have to say.  Would be interested to see some numbers if this is the case. 

[starrymessenger]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Is there a basis for this statement?  It didn't jump off the tape at me the drops I have to say.  Would be interested to see some numbers if this is the case. 

 

PFF is one source. There may be others idk.

[DCOrange]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Is there a basis for this statement?  It didn't jump off the tape at me the drops I have to say.  Would be interested to see some numbers if this is the case. 

 

ProFootballFocus tracks Drop %:

Mayfield: 8.0%

Rosen: 7.5%

Rudolph: 6.6%

Lamar: 8.5%

Darnold: 4.3%

Allen: 4.8%

 

This is a percentage of drops compared to all attempts (with spikes and throw-aways, and I THINK balls batted at the line removed). I think it's important to note that because for example, Allen's drop % looks very low because his throws are so often off target, but I imagine if you were looking specifically at drop % of catchable balls, Allen's would be much more in line with his peers because his WRs were god awful.

 

But point being, compared to their total adjusted attempts numbers, Lamar had a higher percentage dropped than any of the other top prospects.

 

[Luxy312]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

You're not wrong, but I'm confused why carrying a bad supporting cast to be one of the best offensive teams in the country and a bowl game appearance is viewed as a bad thing. 

 

His numbers are skewed by the fact that he didn't get much help.  Take away his rushing yards and what do you have?  Basically a sub-par passer.  59% this last year was his best completion percentage as a quarterback.  Basically the Louisville offense is built around him as an individual player.  There's no NFL system that's going to be anything close to that, besides, perhaps, what was being run by Dennison this last year.  NFL teams have and will be able to take away the run and make him a pocket passer.  That's not a good thing for whomever puts him under center.

[Rochesterfan]

On 1/18/2018 at 8:23 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

This exercise assumes that the Bills will not trade up and will not have signed Cousins. They will have signed a placeholder guy in this scenario Bradford/Bridgewater/Tyrod/McCown. 

 

We have discussed a lot, the guy(s) that we want. Let’s say that the Bills stay put and the likely scenario or Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield and Allen are off the board. What should the Bills do at 21/22? Should they take Rudolph or Jackson or not draft a QB in the 1st? 

 

This is feels like a relatively realistic scenario. Please don’t provide ridiculous suggestions like “sign Garoppolo or Brees.” Let’s try to be realistic. 

 

 

Based upon your above scenario - I would probably wait, but Rudolph would not be horrible.  I do not want anything to do with Jackson.

[JM57]

4 hours ago, QuoteTheRaven83 said:

 

Good to know you'd never draft Tom Brady if you could go back in time.

Are we comparing Mason Rudolph to Tom Brady?

[End The Drought]

Tough. Voted for Rudolph because I really don't see the arm strength concerns. Jackson is an elite college football playmaker and his speed will translate to the NFL. My question about him is how well he will be able to handle an NFL playbook 

[JM57]

49 minutes ago, Luxy312 said:

 

His numbers are skewed by the fact that he didn't get much help.  Take away his rushing yards and what do you have?  Basically a sub-par passer.  59% this last year was his best completion percentage as a quarterback.  Basically the Louisville offense is built around him as an individual player.  There's no NFL system that's going to be anything close to that, besides, perhaps, what was being run by Dennison this last year.  NFL teams have and will be able to take away the run and make him a pocket passer.  That's not a good thing for whomever puts him under center.

Is it possible that the Louisville scheme designed like that because the skill position players and OL were...not good? If you have one superstar and 10 JAGs...you're gonna scheme that way.

 

I'm fairly sure that once Jackson is drafted, he will be the first offensive skill player from Louisville since Devante Parker. That's not great.

[starrymessenger]

6 minutes ago, End The Drought said:

Tough. Voted for Rudolph because I really don't see the arm strength concerns. Jackson is an elite college football playmaker and his speed will translate to the NFL. My question about him is how well he will be able to handle an NFL playbook 

 

Coach Petrino's playbook is pro style and complicated. Jackson was fully in command of that offence.

1 hour ago, Luxy312 said:

 

His numbers are skewed by the fact that he didn't get much help.  Take away his rushing yards and what do you have?  Basically a sub-par passer.  59% this last year was his best completion percentage as a quarterback.  Basically the Louisville offense is built around him as an individual player.  There's no NFL system that's going to be anything close to that, besides, perhaps, what was being run by Dennison this last year.  NFL teams have and will be able to take away the run and make him a pocket passer.  That's not a good thing for whomever puts him under center.

 

It's not a good thing unless he can execute from the pocket. Whether he projects as being able to do that is the question that has to be answered and that will be answered in due course. Many feel that there is plenty enuf evidence to say that he can. Nobody is drafting a guy high in the first if they see him as a run first QB with limited potential as a passer. Tyrod went in the sixth. 

Making adjustments to an offence when turning the reins over to a rook is absolutely normal as the player gets acclimated. They did it with Ben, with Brady and most notably and most recently with D. Watson. 

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, Luxy312 said:

 

His numbers are skewed by the fact that he didn't get much help.  Take away his rushing yards and what do you have?  Basically a sub-par passer.  59% this last year was his best completion percentage as a quarterback.  Basically the Louisville offense is built around him as an individual player.  There's no NFL system that's going to be anything close to that, besides, perhaps, what was being run by Dennison this last year.  NFL teams have and will be able to take away the run and make him a pocket passer.  That's not a good thing for whomever puts him under center.

Take away his rushing and his passing numbers alone are still on par with Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold.

[jrober38]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

 

ProFootballFocus tracks Drop %:

Mayfield: 8.0%

Rosen: 7.5%

Rudolph: 6.6%

Lamar: 8.5%

Darnold: 4.3%

Allen: 4.8%

 

This is a percentage of drops compared to all attempts (with spikes and throw-aways, and I THINK balls batted at the line removed). I think it's important to note that because for example, Allen's drop % looks very low because his throws are so often off target, but I imagine if you were looking specifically at drop % of catchable balls, Allen's would be much more in line with his peers because his WRs were god awful.

 

But point being, compared to their total adjusted attempts numbers, Lamar had a higher percentage dropped than any of the other top prospects.

 

Allen's drop percentage makes his completion percentage even more scary. 

[DCOrange]

Just now, jrober38 said:

Allen's drop percentage makes his completion percentage even more scary. 

 

It does. It honestly blows my mind. I remember watching one of his games earlier this year where he went 9/19 but I swear like 5 or 6 of those incompletions were drops. I don't know how his drop percentage ended up being so low lol

[Fadingpain]

I like Mason Rudolph.

 

 

[SoTier]

On 1/18/2018 at 10:47 AM, kdiggz said:

Rosen is the best pocket passer since Andrew Luck.  he is a real deal #1 pick but his white priviledge attitude rubs people the wrong way.  Darnold is also a top 15 player in this draft but has some things to work on.  Allen some would argue is a #1 type prospect just based on his rare size and arm strength.  the best arm since JeMarcuss Russel, but it takes more than a big arm to be a QB imo.  I'd put those 3 at the top.  Mayfield obviously had a great college career but if Drew Brees and Russel Wilson don't exist I don't think anyone is talking about him as a top 15 pick.  Guys like him were always typically day 2 picks.  he can be successful, it's just more of a risk than what you typically see out of top 10 players chosen.  if you are picking him that high then you are saying this is my franchise QB for the next 10 yrs.  his size is a real concern.  Drew Brees was a 2nd rounder as a result.  Russel Wilson was a 3rd rounder.  Jackson and Rudolph are day 2 type projects that will get pushed high into the 1st round because they are QB's and teams are desperate.  both may be gone before we pick.  so 6 QB's taken before we even pick is very possible!  i'd only say 3 are worth the picks though, but that's how it goes with QB's!

 

Very well said.       

 

On 1/18/2018 at 1:07 PM, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

 

In all fairness to accuracy stats, I spent most of 2012-2013 beating the Geno Smith drum because he was in a passing offense and had something sick like a 70% completion percentage... and look where that got me/him.

 

I'll give you that Losman was forcing the issue. But we traded down in 2013, so I cant agree we forced it.

 

And additionally, I'd say our biggest mistake was not forcing it enough in 2004, and not doing what it took to convince Houston to trade with us so we could land Rothlisberger.

 

 

 

Neither Losman nor Manuel should have been drafted in the first round, and most likely both would have been available in the 2nd round, and if they weren't, well, no great loss since the Bills could have taken Matt Schaub in 2004 or just passed on a QB entirely in 2013 because none of the prospects was very good.  In both drafts, the Bills were determined to draft a QB in the first round in order to sell tickets, and that's what they did.  That is absolutely "forcing the issue" whether they traded up or traded down to get one.

 

The Bills get no brownie points from me for taking a Day Two prospect in the first round even if they traded down and added an extra pick because that crappy prospect drafted in the first round prevented the team from going after better QB prospects like Bridgewater and Carr because they had Manuel ... just like they couldn't draft Rodgers in 2005 because they'd given up that first rounder for Losman.

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, End The Drought said:

Tough. Voted for Rudolph because I really don't see the arm strength concerns. Jackson is an elite college football playmaker and his speed will translate to the NFL. My question about him is how well he will be able to handle an NFL playbook 

Is it just me or is this question asked because he's an African America QB?

[hemma]

Someone asked Chris Brown (Fan Friday) about Rudolph:

 

"Do you think Rudolph could be a target pick for bills? Keep some draft capital get him at 21?

Brian
@Bhainsy

CB: Right now Rudolph is a bit off the pace as a QB prospect from the top four (Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield), due primarily to the fact that NFL clubs don’t know what his mental processing skills are on a football field. He has all the physical tools to be a pocket passer in the NFL, but he played in a very simple offense. So calling plays, diagnosing coverages, reading progressions, taking snaps under center are all unknowns. That’s why it’s unfortunate that Rudolph won’t be practicing this week at the Senior Bowl. He could’ve begun to answer some of those questions by putting his decision making during team periods of practice on display.

I think at this point it’s very realistic that he’ll be on the board for the Bills in the early 20’s. He’s currently projected as a late one, early two by some of the more respected draft prognosticators."

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, hemma said:

Someone asked Chris Brown (Fan Friday) about Rudolph:

 

"Do you think Rudolph could be a target pick for bills? Keep some draft capital get him at 21?

Brian
@Bhainsy

CB: Right now Rudolph is a bit off the pace as a QB prospect from the top four (Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield), due primarily to the fact that NFL clubs don’t know what his mental processing skills are on a football field. He has all the physical tools to be a pocket passer in the NFL, but he played in a very simple offense. So calling plays, diagnosing coverages, reading progressions, taking snaps under center are all unknowns. That’s why it’s unfortunate that Rudolph won’t be practicing this week at the Senior Bowl. He could’ve begun to answer some of those questions by putting his decision making during team periods of practice on display.

I think at this point it’s very realistic that he’ll be on the board for the Bills in the early 20’s. He’s currently projected as a late one, early two by some of the more respected draft prognosticators."

 

When was Bryce Petty drafted?

 

That'll give you an idea of when Rudolph will get picked...