ExiledInIllinois Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Nope. Better choice was the punt. Not sexy by today's standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 28 minutes ago, Captain_Quint said: I'm willing to give McD a pass, because I can tell It'll really piss of Domdab and MrBobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Okay. Put it this way. Why would you let everything ride on one play? Because you are in control of that play? Why not give yourself more plays to control your destiny? Even if that means being on D. That is what a snow game brings to the table more often. He let go. It was gutsy but he did it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardyBoy Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Had the bomb to thompson been incomplete with no pi, it's 4th and 6 on your side of the field. Would you rather have 4th and 1 from their 41, or the chance of having a 4th and anything else farther back with less time left? The saints had a very similar situation, but were down 3 and in field goal range Thurs night. They went for it. The odds of picking up 4th and 1 needing one more first down to kick a fg are better than punting and needing a whole bunch of things to end up happening just right with no real upside if even one thing doesn't go as needed. It was a bad call, very, very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kota Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 And in the end the right one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said: Because after the 2 runs - they were at their 25 with 3 minutes left - how many more runs until the game was over - not enough to get a win - so they had to pass. if they had been at the 41 - the 2 runs move them to the Bills 44 with 3 minutes left - plenty of time to continue to run. I do not believe they ever throw the ball in that case. It completely changes the mindset. Additionally - if they had been stopped on 1st and 2nd down - my guess is Indy runs it on third down - they wanted to chew a bit of clock and try to win. You see the same thing on the last drives in the first half. Teams do not get aggressive until they get that first 1st down - then they start to open up the play book. This is an important point. In this situation, you basically force the Colts into a terrible position. They have to throw the ball to move down the field to have enough time for even a FG chance. In that weather, with Brissett, and based on their passing up to that point, seems like a good bet to get the ball back with good field position and enough time left. And that’s what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, HardyBoy said: Had the bomb to thompson been incomplete with no pi, it's 4th and 6 on your side of the field. Would you rather have 4th and 1 from their 41, or the chance of having a 4th and anything else farther back with less time left? The saints had a very similar situation, but were down 3 and in field goal range Thurs night. They went for it. The odds of picking up 4th and 1 needing one more first down to kick a fg are better than punting and needing a whole bunch of things to end up happening just right with no real upside if even one thing doesn't go as needed. It was a bad call, very, very bad. Also had a situation in the Rams Eagles game today. Rams punted on 4th and 10 with 2:12 left in the 4th. Yes. they got the ball back. With 1 second on the clock. And lost the game. As you would expect. Dumb call. Should have tried to convert the 4th and 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dadonkadonk Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Bad call to punt. Even worse to take the time-out. We got lucky the Colts tried to pass and DT caught that prayer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardyBoy Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, kota said: And in the end the right one. You cannot base the quality of a choice on the outcome, since the outcome is not knowat the time of the choice. Do this, go to the casino, bet red on roulette every time and tell me what happens. Sure you'll win sometimes, but eventually you lose everytime because of 00. If you tell me you are going to become rich playing that strategy, even if you win the first spin, it's the wrong decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 The reason why I think this decision matters so much is because I want a modern coach who knows what the +EV decision is so that we can one day become an elite team. Coaches who do not do this, do not win Super Bowls that often. They are Andy Reid and Ron Rivera - good coaches who time and time again make the wrong game decisions that cost their very talented teams possible championships. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, HardyBoy said: You cannot base the quality of a choice on the outcome, since the outcome is not knowat the time of the choice. Do this, go to the casino, bet red on roulette every time and tell me what happens. Sure you'll win sometimes, but eventually you lose everytime because of 00. If you tell me you are going to become rich playing that strategy, even if you win the first spin, it's the wrong decision. Any casino or or card game analogy is a false one unless you can quote known odds for the situation in the game today, which you cannot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, PolishDave said: Also had a situation in the Rams Eagles game today. Rams punted on 4th and 10 with 2:12 left in the 4th. Yes. they got the ball back. With 1 second on the clock. And lost the game. As you would expect. Dumb call. Should have tried to convert the 4th and 10. No its the right call McD can do no wrong for some here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just now, Domdab99 said: The reason why I think this decision matters so much is because I want a modern coach who knows what the +EV decision is so that we can one day become an elite team. Coaches who do not do this, do not win Super Bowls that often. They are Andy Reid and Ron Rivera - good coaches who time and time again make the wrong game decisions that cost their very talented teams possible championships. I hear your point, but I think it’s totally misplaced with today’s game and in this circumstance. 1 minute ago, MAJBobby said: No its the right call McD can do no wrong for some here MAJadhominem attack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wppete Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 I didn’t like the call to punt. McDermott worries me as a head coach and decision maker. Say that at the end of the day we still won and it worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 19 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said: Okay. Put it this way. Why would you let everything ride on one play? Because you are in control of that play? Why not give yourself more plays to control your destiny? Even if that means being on D. That is what a snow game brings to the table more often. He let go. It was gutsy but he did it! Why do you think it's putting everything on one play? Either you: make it and continue driving don't make it and now have to stop the Colts punt and have to stop the Colts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Did anyone catch McDermott's explanation of why he chose to punt there? I didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 2 hours ago, ExiledInIllinois said: Sure! They have a 5% chance of beating the Cheats. Says who? I love these percent chance things because they're always right. If the Patsies** win, they can say , see 95% chance. And if we win, they can say, well, they did have a 5% chance to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 And... What happened on BFLo's first drive of game? They didn't play field position, aka: "driving safe in the snow." They failed to convert, gave Colts short field and thankfully a missed FG. That would have been game in OT. Don't you think McD stuck to being patient? Be damn the tie. Can't worry about that. 1 minute ago, reddogblitz said: Says who? I love these percent chance things because they're always right. If the Patsies** win, they can say , see 95% chance. And if we win, they can say, well, they did have a 5% chance to win. Says me & Joe Webb or whoever chump they start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, reddogblitz said: Says who? I love these percent chance things because they're always right. If the Patsies** win, they can say , see 95% chance. And if we win, they can say, well, they did have a 5% chance to win. spoken like a man who has no clue about math or probability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Domdab99 said: spoken like a man who has no clue about math or probability You keep posting about math or probability but ive yet to see a coherent argument showing what the probabilities were in that situation for each choice. Except for the ESPN win probability machine. But even with that not a single person has been able to explain how they arrive at those numbers and if their modeling is applicable to the Bills in that situation or not. I get the point you are trying to make, but I don’t think you or anyone else is able to do anything more than quote some models that IMO don’t really apply well to today’s game, given the weather conditions and the teams playing. I’m not saying this is exactly the way to quantify it, but if was like a three standard deviation situation today. Most models don’t do well in those extreme environments. Edited December 11, 2017 by dubs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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