Great MMQB article on Tyrod/Bills decision

[CanadianFan]

Somebody did the work on the stats. We fans SORTA KINDA knew this - that when we get turnovers, we often don't turn them into points, due to the offense's INEPTITUDE. Here is the research how BAD we are at NOT creating points off turnovers:

 

Quote

The Bills are currently on pace to finish the year at +20 in turnover differential. In that 20-year span, 14 teams had done that. The worst point differential among them was the 1999 Chiefs, at +68 (+4.3 per game). The Bills are at -1.3 per game.

 

The rest of the discussion is cherry picking the points we all made in various discussions.

 

[starrymessenger]

I believe him when he says that he has friends who are Bills fans. Refreshing to see someone with legitimate insights on a national media platform. 

Aside from the obvious merit of his basic analysis I do take issue with his comments on how black quarterbacks are disadvantaged as a reflection of systemic socioeconomic prejudice. I'm not buying that line. Its not that I think racism doesn't exist. But I think that the NFL, for all its faults, is perhaps something of an exception to the big picture. And thats because its hypercompetitive nature forces it to be more of a meritocracy. Focussing on Tyrod's case as an example, if he was better at throwing a football he'd be the crown king of Buffalo and he'd be universally recognized as one of the best signal callers in the game, like Russell Wilson. The author seems to acknowledge that the intrinsic geometry of the modern NFL game requires a QB to execute from the pocket, whatever else he can do. Unless he subscribes to a conspiracy theory according to which this requirement is not only optional but but somehow designed to disadvantage players of colour he cannot have it both ways because these perceptions cannot be reconciled.

Another place where he hedges his bets is in his analysis of Peterman (though Peterman is not really the subject of his piece). First, he acknowledges that we don't really know what we have in Peterman. But then he has no difficulty in commenting on his relatively low ceiling and, essentially, positioning him a clear notch below Cousins, and maybe a notch above Jeff Tuel. His assessment might of course be correct but you can't have it both ways. Either you know, or think you know, or you really don't. He is relying for his opinion on what we know about Peterman: that he is a fifth round prospect with something less than ideal measurables. He'd probably feel differently about him if he was two inches taller and 15 lbs heavier, bigger and stronger. 

I prefer to say that we just don't know yet. How smart is he? How well will he continue to see the field at this level of play? Can he improve his tangibles via strength and conditioning? Is his skillset on an upward trajectory despite the step up in competition? What a prospect perhaps lacks in one objectively relevant classification of the job description he can maybe (more than) make up for in another. 

We just don't have the answer to these questions (yet).

 

[BADOLBILZ]

 

 

Has any team ever shed 7 of their recent first and second rounders in mid-career the way the Bills have in just the past 9 months?

 

Browns maybe?

 

PS.......a lot of playoff bound teams say thanks McD!

 

 

 

 

Edited November 19, 2017 by BADOLBILZ

[KD in CA]

5 minutes ago, CanadianFan said:

Somebody did the work on the stats. We fans SORTA KINDA knew this - that when we get turnovers, we often don't turn them into points, due to the offense's INEPTITUDE. Here is the research how BAD we are at NOT creating points off turnovers:

 

 

The rest of the discussion is cherry picking the points we all made in various discussions.

 

 

Yup;  that is the crux of the issue which many here can't understand or refuse to acknowledge. 

 

But hey, at least they don't turn the ball over before punting!   

[BillsFan4]

Thanks for sharing Logic. That was a good, insightful read. 

 

I think this is a good point, and maybe is something some people don't consider when blaming Dennison for the offense's struggles -

 

"With Taylor, you lose a lot of the designed plays, which is a problem not just because of a coach’s ego (though a portion of it is a coach’s ego), but also because your play-caller/play-designer has a strategy to exploit the defensive coordinator’s scheme and strategy. And, as we often forget when we chart individual plays, play-calls are not made in a vacuum. It’s game theory, the end result of an opponent’s tendencies and anticipating how they will react to a certain scenario, and play-calls are often built off previous play-calls. Playing out-of-structure undeniably makes the job of a play-caller more difficult (due to the fact that Taylor is not an aggressive, anticipatory thrower, your play-caller is already working with some limitations.) And, with Taylor, if you fall behind, as Saints DE Cameron Jordan pointed out last week, you’re basically done. Once the threat of the run game is out of the equation, the Bills are too easy to defend."

 

 

I know McDermott claimed it was 100% his decision bench TT but I still think Dennison probably requested the change. Just last season he had success with a rookie 7th round pick starting and I'm sure he feels he can do it again with Peterman. 

[Wayne Arnold]

2 hours ago, PeterGriffin said:

Marrone may be an egomaniac and a dickhead but he's not stupid and highly doubt he has any interest in Tyrod.

 

He's all about protecting the football. Taylor is Marrone's wet dream.

[BADOLBILZ]

11 hours ago, KD in CA said:

It's not written as such, but that article is scathing and spot on regarding Taylor.  The lack of offensive production despite the good turnover fortune is in fact, unprecedented.

 

 

It's actually muddled take.......he says the supporting offensive cast is terrible and that they can't bench the entire defense.......but stops short of simply making that his conclusion because,  I guess, that just sounds kinda' dumb and not article worthy.

 

He says he follows the team closely but there are just a lot of parts that don't fit up right.........if his take was a rush defense it would look a lot like the one the Bills are fielding now.

 

Like talking down the Bills offensive production under Taylor by not mentioning that the Taylor-lead 2016 offense was the best the team has had since 1991.  7th in NFL in scoring and a record for fewest turnovers thru 15 games.......despite a season-long rash of injuries in the WR corps.

 

He says the team couldn't throw the ball downfield for big plays with Tyrod........not mentioning that Watkins was pretty much out the entire season and that the offense STILL LEAD THE ENTIRE NFL IN BIG PLAYS in both 2015 and 2016.......with many more big passing plays in 2015 when Watkins was healthier.

 

He says that Taylor couldn't pass the ball with Watkins and Woods........but when they were both back healthy for the only time in 2016.....against the Dolphins in OP...... when they set a franchise record for offensive yardage production.

 

Then he has Taylor going to a talented contender in Jacksonville.

 

 

 

 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

12 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's actually muddled take.......he says the supporting offensive cast is terrible and that they can't bench the entire defense.......but stops short of simply making that his conclusion because,  I guess, that just sounds kinda' dumb and not article worthy.

 

He says he follows the team closely but there are just a lot of parts that don't fit up right.........if his take was a rush defense it would look a lot like the one the Bills are fielding now.

 

Like talking down the Bills offensive production under Taylor by not mentioning that the Taylor-lead 2016 offense was the best the team has had since 1991.  7th in NFL in scoring and a record for fewest turnovers thru 15 games.......despite a season-long rash of injuries in the WR corps.

 

He says the team couldn't throw the ball downfield for big plays with Tyrod........not mentioning that Watkins was pretty much out the entire season and that the offense STILL LEAD THE ENTIRE NFL IN BIG PLAYS in both 2015 and 2016.......with many more big passing plays in 2015 when Watkins was healthier.

 

He says that Taylor couldn't pass the ball with Watkins and Woods........but when they were both back healthy for the only time in 2016.....against the Dolphins in OP...... when they set a franchise record for offensive yardage production.

 

Then he has Taylor going to a talented contender in Jacksonville.

 

 

 

 

 

 

this post is full of nothing but excuses.

[Shaw66]

It is a good article.  As someone said, a bit harsh.  Maybe better, it's prematurely harsh.  Let's see what the next few weeks bring.  After all, even his article speculates about Bills going 8-8, so how can he say the Bills are bad?  8-8 isn't bad. 

 

When he scrambles Taylor l o KS down field every bit as much as Wilson and Brees and Rodgers.  So he's wrong about that.  But it may be that's he's right about Taylor screwing up the offensive scheme.  I don't know how he knowsnthat, but it sounds credible. 

 

We will see. 

 

 

55 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

 

this post is full of nothing but excuses.

Actually it's really quite good.  Similar to the things I said in that much of what the author says about the team really I don't supported by the evidence.  As I said, I like the conclusions about Taylor being done and not the right guy and Peterman probably not the right guy either, but I think a lot of statements about the Bills don't reflect what the Bills actually have been. 

[Wayne Arnold]

6 hours ago, QCity said:

"I saw the deliciously snarky I guess it's Tyrod's fault the Saints ran for 298 yards takes that were so clever they could have been right out of a Leno monologue. The fact is, the offense’s 118 net yards over nine drives in the Saints game was just as egregiously bad as the defense's performance. They were both awful. You can’t raze your entire defensive roster midseason. If you want to make the kind of drastic change the Bills needed to make, and you think there’s even a chance you might have an upgrade on your roster, the logical spot is at quarterback."

 

Another great quote, and a notion that's been seen quite a bit since the QB change (from people trying to sound clever). So, because the defense has been  worse than the offense the past 2 games, the coach isn't allowed to try to improve the offense? That silly take came from more than one local sports reporter.

 

The hilarity ensues!

 

[Maine-iac]

2 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

I know McDermott claimed it was 100% his decision bench TT but I still think Dennison probably requested the change. Just last season he had success with a rookie 7th round pick starting and I'm sure he feels he can do it again with Peterman. 

 

Define success.  They averaged 20.8 ppg ............. what we are scoring after two horrible games.  I think no matter the QB Dennison is a weak 0C.

[klos63]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Great article. Thanks for posting it. I love this quote:

 

 

"Consider this: Buffalo currently leads the NFL in turnover differential at +11 through nine games. And, incredibly, they have a point differential in the red (-12).

 

"It cannot be overstated just how atrocious you have to be to pick up an extra possession per game and still get outscored on the season. Over the previous 20 seasons, 41 teams have posted a turnover differential of +1 per game or better over the course of a season. If rabid squirrels gnawed off both your hands, you’d still have enough fingers to count how many of those 41 teams had a negative point differential that season (and you know damn well that not a jury in the world would convict those squirrels)."

 

 

 

I am very much a King fan, but that wasn't King, it was Garry Gramling.

Our defense did just give up 81 points in the last 2 games. Not to be overlooked as part of our problems.

[The Frankish Reich]

Excellent work by Peter King. We all know he's a guy who - unlike almost everyone else in the national media - pays attention to the Bills and seems to want them to turn the corner. And it shows in this article. A guy who's actually watched a lot of Tyrod Taylor the last 2.5 years rather than just reading the stats.  Probably the best analysis of why McD and Beane decided they had to go in  a different direction now.  Reminds me of the old Moneyball Oakland A's and the other Mr. Beane:  "the first third of the season is to find out what you have, the second third is to get the pieces you need, the final third is to win with them." That's what happens when you've decided you have a competitive roster to begin with. The other side of the coin - and Billy Beane has done it several times - is when after that first third you decide you don't have the talent to win this year. That's where we are now: the Dareus trade was the first "cold light of day" call, Tyrod is the second. We got fooled by the trade for Benjamin in between, but that was more about 2018 than 2017. ..