So, 4-12 predictors...how's that working out?

[Virgil]

Great, now I’m cross eyed 

[OCinBuffalo]

48 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Great, now I’m cross eyed 

Yeah, and your avatar would never have given that away.  Or, is this your attempt at irony?

 

Here's irony: I do my best to explain, today, in the nicest format I am capable of, why 4-12 predictors should brush up on their analytics.

 

And the best you can do: ignore the content and play the process game. 

 

Buddy: take a look around you. This old trick died on PPP 10 years ago. It's dying a death by a 1000 cuts this season on this board, every time the Bills win. I say again: the Bills win...and all Jerry Sullivan can do is ask why Pumpernickel(== a right click spell check on Kaepernick?  ) doesn't have a job?

 

Whataboutism. It's the primary symptom of the cognitive dissonance disease reasonable Bills fans have had to endure from unreasonable fans since preseason. The second thing we've had to endure is a phony QB controversy, when, we've seen ALL of our QBs come in and do an acceptable, if not good job, regardless of circumstance. Only a clown blames Peterson for his starting performance, when he was hit 4 times while throwing, but throws darts when he isn't being hit. And....equally...only a clown blames Tyrod for being forced to play outside his game(if they are man to man, he should look for 1 receiver...then run. Zone, he sits and waits until the underneath guy finds the seam: easy.) Anything else, in the words of Rahm Emanuel, is F'ing Retarded.

 

Enough Whataboutism. We have 3 QBs on this team that can make plays. Contrast that with Denver. The ? is who is going to let them do what they are best at vs why are they going to insist on system over QB core competency?

 

 

 

/////Random Crap

 

EDIT: Don't get me started on why we finally have the power running O line that BillinNYC has been demanding for 10 years...only to try and make it, on some plays, act like the undersized, zone blocking, get to a spot first, then cut, O line that Denver ran when then won the SBs.

 

I am a championship winning coach. In fact, the teams I've coached have never not won the whole thing. In one case, my job forced me to miss the championship game, and that baseball team put up 14 runs, because they were pissed at my bosses, then called me in Cleveland to let me know. 

 

There is never an excuse, ever, to not take the players you have and create the plan around them: see Bill Belechick vs Dennisson. I ran Syracuse's 2-3 D with an 7-9th grade basketball team. Why? Because we had a lot of big, but slow guys. The other coaches went to my ex-JV lacrosse coach, then athletic director to beat it(and keep in mind, I flew back just for practice, never mind games, because I made a commitment to my players). He did. But, remember: JV. I adjusted our D during 1 timeout. And with that adjustment, and the fast break the head coach(my employee who roped me in) engineered off the turnovers the D created, we destroyed teams. Mr. ------- had to sit there and watch, so,   Mr. --------, I still own you.

Edited December 15, 2017 by OCinBuffalo

[xRUSHx]

I said 6 or 7 wins right where we are

[OCinBuffalo]

3 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

I said 6 or 7 wins right where we are

What happens if it's 8?

[xRUSHx]

6 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

What happens if it's 8?

Then its 8, it was a guess, it is still no playoffs. The D will have to be outstanding to squeeze a win this week.

I think this week's game could be a real stinker the way Tyrod has played this year.

Fans can point to last year vrs the fishheads but Tyrod is nowhere even close to last year,. McCoy could get his yards but if they do not score more then 1 TD we will not win.

Edited December 15, 2017 by xRUSHx

[OCinBuffalo]

14 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

Then its 8, it was a guess, it is still no playoffs. The D will have to be outstanding to squeeze a win this week.

I think this week's game could be a real stinker the way Tyrod has played this year.

Fans can point to last year vrs the fishheads but Tyrod is nowhere even close to last year,. McCoy could get his yards but if they do not score more then 1 TD we will not win.

Okay, but, would you agree that you only have at best, a 50% chance on being "right"?

 

See, my problem isn't with your analysis. My problem is with supposed fans that make definitive claims based on 0, or at best tangential, evidence. Tangential: we ran the last playoff team coach of out this town...because he wouldn't wear a headset. All he's done since is be a SB winning D coordinator many times over. 

 

I'm tired of tangential. I'm tired of people using the Bills as a whipping boy for their own life failures. When the Bills win...that forces far too many Bills fans to have to face the reality that their series of life choices suck. See, they need the Bills to lose...because if the Bills lose, they take comfort in at least being "not as bad as the Bills". All inferences are welcome, if not encouraged. Oh sure, they'll come to the games: why wouldn't they want reinforcement? See: inferences.

Edited December 15, 2017 by OCinBuffalo

[xRUSHx]

18 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Okay, but, would agree that you only have at best, a 50% chance on being "right"?

 

See, my problem isn't with your analysis. My problem is with supposed fans that make definitive claims based on 0, or at best tangential, evidence. Tangential: we ran the last playoff team coach of out this town...because he wouldn't wear a headset. All he's done since is be a SB winning D coordinator many times over. 

 

I'm tired of tangential. I'm tired of people using the Bills as a whipping boy for their own life failures. When the Bills win...that forces far too many Bills fans to have to face the reality that their series of life choices suck. See, they need the Bills to lose...because if the Bills lose, they take comfort in at least being "not as bad as the Bills". All inferences are welcome, if not encouraged.

No Man I am sorry but I do not agree with your assessment on your call out thread.

 

Fans picked them to not win much this year because they did not fix enough of the team namely the most important position, QB. I do not see how anyone can think this is a legit playoff team with Baltimore's backup QB as the starter that has failed to get the job done.

 

Fans do not use some kind of witchcraft to will the Bills into losing man, the Bills do that all on their own.

 

Fans want this team to win but if they can not fix the most important piece it will continue down the same failed path IMO, hopefully this years draft will change the perception on this team and fans will change their outlook.

 

Look man I do not want to be a Debby downer but this team has the longest playoffless loser streak in ALL of sports and it is not the fans that have made this team this way it is OBD avoiding fixing it correctly to make it a better team.

 

When Bill P. and Levy came in the Bills stunk worse then now and they fixed it by getting the players to do it and it got better because of a machine gun at QB, Jim Kelly. They dominated the league, did not win a SB but destroyed a ton of teams all throughout the SB glory years.

Edited December 15, 2017 by xRUSHx

[OCinBuffalo]

20 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

No Man I am sorry but I do not agree with your assessment on your call out thread.

 

Fans picked them to not win much this year because they did not fix enough of the team namely the most important position, QB. I do not see how anyone can think this is a legit playiff team with Baltimore's bavkup QB as the starter

That's not what I asked. 

 

Do you think that your analysis points to a propensity of being correct beyond 50%. If so, what's your %? If you give me that, I decide whether to bet against you. That's what I'm taking about. If you say you've got a 50% chance of being right, I don't bet against you. Sure, I might have a 50% chance of you being wrong, but I still wouldn't bet on it. Why would I bet on a coin flip? That's idiocy. How about three flips in a row? Bigger idiocy.

 

No, it's only when you say that you're 80% right(EDIT: or as many clowns here have posited, 100% right  ) , given your fairly weak reasoning above, that I would chose to bet against you. Why? Because in order to get me to bet, you have to give me points. 80% means you're going to give me 4-6 points. That's when I move in and take the bet...and that's why I can, and will, bet you 10k, of the many k, of other people's $ I have taken. Lifetime I'm up over $100k, if you count everything: sports betting, poker, etc. And lifetime is the measurment: you're not a winner if you won today, but are a lifetime loser.

 

The reason for this thread: educating the 4-12 predictors...that they should never gamble. Gambling is literally putting your $ where your mouth is. The difference on this board: nobody loses anything because of their mouth. Thus, a call-out thread is necessary, so that they learn, but also because they lose something: credibility.

Edited December 15, 2017 by OCinBuffalo

[Ol Dirty B]

2 hours ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Just so I don't get accused of de facto....

 

I ask you now: where are the 4-12 predictors going to be, if the Bills DOUBLE their "predicted" win total? (See: 8 wins)

 

As I've said since MAY 2016....the "predictors based on 'math'" people are in a lot of trouble. Look at the words above my avatar: ask yourself, where is their credibility, and why should we believe people who utterly failed at predictive political modeling, about sports propensity?

 

See, clowns, this entire thread has been an effort to attract and confront those who are analytically ignorant. Anyone calling me arrogant? You are merely staring into the ignorant mirror: and it's confusing you. At this point the highest propensity the Bills have is 8-8....which...is the bell curve approach I referred to pages ago, when the Bills were 5-5. This is not arrogance: it's math. You don't get to call me arrogant for educating you on the tenets of statistics.

 

And finally: This is a subset of what I do, but, it's one of my more important skill sets. If we were talking about plumbing, I wouldn't call a plumber speaking directly about why he chose to sweat pipe here/make a joint/place a valve, arrogant. I'd say he was doing his job, then explaining it.

 

That's what I am doing...then explaining it.  You were ignorant before you posted. All I have done is merely try to give you a sense of how one correctly goes about creating a predictive model.

 

EDIT: Well, lets cut the crap. I've been a homer Bills fan who has delighted in crushing the "realists" this season. But, as we've seen the last 24 months, and are absolutely guaranteed to see over the next 12? The "realists' are actually delusional. Events have overtaken their claims, in life, in general. I would spend more time in Elmwood Village confronting the "realists", about all sorts of things, like the stock market, the GDP, the Bills record, etc., ...but...I can do more good ignoring them and continuing my daily activities in the real world...that the "realists" deny. Hey, that's why I don't post as much anymore.

 

Based off of this post, it seems like a better place without your posts.

 

17 years without the playoffs doesn't make mathematical sense.

 

Also gloating about them going 8-8 would make no sense, and the future would have been most likely better with a 4-12 season rather than 8-8 or even 9-7 depending on how you prioritize things.

 

I honestly can't see any advantage or reason to be happy with a team going 8-8 over 4-12 with a team desperate for elite talent other than personal pride. Which you are clearly in dire straights for.

[xRUSHx]

14 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

That's not what I asked. 

 

Do you think that your analysis points to a propensity of being correct beyond 50%. If so, what's your %? If you give me that, I decide whether to bet against you. That's what I'm taking about. If you say you've got a 50% chance of being right, I don't bet against you. Sure, I might have a 50% chance of you being wrong, but I still wouldn't bet on it. Why would I bet on a coin flip? That's idiocy. How about three flips in a row? Bigger idiocy.

 

No, it's only when you say that you're 80% right, given your fairly weak reasoning above, that I would chose to bet against you. Why? Because in order to get me to bet, you have to give me points. 80% means you're going to give me 4-6 points. That's when I move in and take the bet...and that's why I can bet you 10k, of the many k, of other people's $ I have taken. Lifetime I'm up over $100k, if you count everything: sports betting, poker, etc. And lifetime is the measurment: you're not a winner if you won today, but are a lifetime loser.

 

The reason for this thread: educating the 4-12 predictors...that they should never gamble. Gambling is literally putting your $ where your mouth is. The difference on this board: nobody loses anything because of their mouth. Thus, a call-out thread is necessary, so that they learn, but also because they lose something: credibility.

Dude I think you may be crazy, or just losing it with so many years of this teams fail. I think I will let you win by default by not even trying to figure out what you are talking about. This is a MB that fans talk about there favorite team. Going 8-8 is no playoffs and a later round draft pick, it does not help the team at all.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 15, 2017 by xRUSHx

[OCinBuffalo]

1 minute ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

Based off of this post, it seems like a better place without your posts.

 

17 years without the playoffs doesn't make mathematical sense.

 

Also gloating about them going 8-8 would make no sense, and the future would have been most likely better with a 4-12 season rather than 8-8 or even 9-7 depending on how you prioritize things.

 

I honestly can't see any advantage or reason to be happy with a team going 8-8 over 4-12 with a team desperate for elite talent other than personal pride. Which you are clearly in dire straights for.

Yes of course, Bills-beater.

 

You'd rather not be confronted with reality. But, in your case, given your recent posts, that's precisely what you need. Sure, you'd rather that I feed into your delusion. Every delusional does. This would allow you to keep your "hey, I might suck, but the Bill suck worse" pathos. Sorry. I refuse. And, that's actually a helping hand for you, or not. We'll see. And yeah, you can tell me all about the draft...blah. Crapshoot. Position means nothing, # of chances to pick means everything. Or, do you think that RG3 taking up 3 high draft picks == Tom Brady/Peyton Manning/Jim Kelly who each only required: 1. Still laughing, mathematically, at the clowns who supported that idea.

 

Ask anybody that's been here long enough: I do football when football needs to be done. I usually lurk because I fully admit that I leech info off the many excellent posters here. I just don't have the time anymore. However, don't get confused: When necessary I ALWAYS do my own, quality, work. Like right now. Also, I am objective: I NEVER watch college football, so, at draft time, I may serve as an objective voice for those having disputes over players. It's literally Missouri == "show me". 

 

I have yet to "gloat". I have forced people to make corrections, by holding them accountable. There is a HUGE difference. The mere fact that you would use the words "gloating about 8-8" says a lot more about you, than it does me. I am a reasonable person. Of course I wouldn't gloat about 8-8 and I never have. I would gloat about 9-7 and making the playoffs, which as of today we have a 22% chance of, with a MOE of 5 and change %. 

 

I will gloat about my ability to do that math in my head, as I'm writing this, because I can: and you can't. 

 

 

20 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

Dude you are crazy, I think I will let you win by default by not even trying to figure out what you are talking about. This is a MB that fans talk about there favorite team.

 

Yeah, how about some social commentary: I get paid a lot more than you, because I do know what I'm talking about. There's no patriarchy, or conspiracy, or systemic anything. It simply comes down to your post above: You don't even want to try to figure out....most likely because you think trying probably == failing. It's too bad. So, you don't try. Too bad.

 

Hey, ask anybody here: I have a long history of helping EVERY Bills fan whose has ever PMed me about IRL stuff. Even some mods. So, a choice confronts you: I can help you try, and succeed. Or, you can try to use....whatever....to concede defeat and not bother trying.

 

I am willing to make the effort. Actually it's sorta compelling. Part of my job is teaching, and teaching is addictive.

[Ol Dirty B]

40 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Yes of course, Bills-beater.

 

You'd rather not be confronted with reality. But, in your case, given your recent posts, that's precisely what you need. Sure, you'd rather that I feed into your delusion. Every delusional does. This would allow you to keep your "hey, I might suck, but the Bill suck worse" pathos. Sorry. I refuse. And, that's actually a helping hand for you, or not. We'll see. And yeah, you can tell me all about the draft...blah. Crapshoot. Position means nothing, # of chances to pick means everything. Or, do you think that RG3 taking up 3 high draft picks == Tom Brady/Peyton Manning/Jim Kelly who each only required: 1. Still laughing, mathematically, at the clowns who supported that idea.

 

Ask anybody that's been here long enough: I do football when football needs to be done. I usually lurk because I fully admit that I leech info off the many excellent posters here. I just don't have the time anymore. However, don't get confused: When necessary I ALWAYS do my own, quality, work. Like right now. Also, I am objective: I NEVER watch college football, so, at draft time, I may serve as an objective voice for those having disputes over players. It's literally Missouri == "show me". 

 

I have yet to "gloat". I have forced people to make corrections, by holding them accountable. There is a HUGE difference. The mere fact that you would use the words "gloating about 8-8" says a lot more about you, than it does me. I am a reasonable person. Of course I wouldn't gloat about 8-8 and I never have. I would gloat about 9-7 and making the playoffs, which as of today we have a 22% chance of, with a MOE of 5 and change %. 

 

I will gloat about my ability to do that math in my head, as I'm writing this, because I can: and you can't. 

 

 

Yeah, how about some social commentary: I get paid a lot more than you, because I do know what I'm talking about. There's no patriarchy, or conspiracy, or systemic anything. It simply comes down to your post above: You don't even want to try to figure out....most likely because you think trying probably == failing. It's too bad. So, you don't try. Too bad.

 

Hey, ask anybody here: I have a long history of helping EVERY Bills fan whose has ever PMed me about IRL stuff. Even some mods. So, a choice confronts you: I can help you try, and succeed. Or, you can try to use....whatever....to concede defeat and not bother trying.

 

I am willing to make the effort. Actually it's sorta compelling. Part of my job is teaching, and teaching is addictive.

 

Wow... I said this about Dunkirk Don... But have you ever watched the movie, A Beautiful Mind? Because you're on that stuff right now.

 

You talk about my recent posts, I'm not sure what that even means. I've been on here, maybe a month? I'd consider everything I post to be recent. Is Bills-beater a former poster you are referring to? It took me a second, that's out of left field. Because if you think I'm someone else other than ODB, you're wrong. Which seems like something you struggle with ever being and will always.

 

Honestly, you sound like you have some serious problems, you force people to make corrections by being accountable? What exactly are they correcting? We're talking about a football team. I'll say I thought this was a 4-6 win team. Nothing posted on here, I'm not sure what the big deal is about someone holding that opinion.

 

Then you start bringing up incomes and patriarchy... Seriously, are you !@#$ing wacked? You don't know me, what ever makes you feel good about yourself, sure believe I'm broke or whatever. I want you to get this as clear as you can, you come across as a complete !@#$ and I'm doing just fine.

 

We're talking football and you start talking patriarchy. How am I even supposed to take it other than you must be strung out or crazy? Seriously, what the !@#$ are you even talking about? 

 

Honestly, if you are a teacher, you shouldn't be. You have a terrible personality for it. You see others in people when you don't even know them. You go off the deep end talking about your own success. As someone who has been a student and approaches life as a student, I can tell you, you're the person that I dismiss thinking what have they(you) ever done. You're on a message board talking about how you were right about the Bills 8-8 record, talking about holding those who disagreed accountable. Then went on to ramble on about your income, and started talking about GDP. A students like... What the !@#$ does predicting the Bills record do for me or my income. But then again, I'm just poor lil me. My 0's can't compete with you 

 

 

Edited December 15, 2017 by Ol Dirty B

[EasternOHBillsFan]

36 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Yeah, how about some social commentary: I get paid a lot more than you, because I do know what I'm talking about. There's no patriarchy, or conspiracy, or systemic anything. It simply comes down to your post above: You don't even want to try to figure out....most likely because you think trying probably == failing. It's too bad. So, you don't try. Too bad.

 

Hey, ask anybody here: I have a long history of helping EVERY Bills fan whose has ever PMed me about IRL stuff. Even some mods. So, a choice confronts you: I can help you try, and succeed. Or, you can try to use....whatever....to concede defeat and not bother trying.

 

I am willing to make the effort. Actually it's sorta compelling. Part of my job is teaching, and teaching is addictive.

 

I quote you:

 

Quote

But, now that I think about it....how many of you were really going to put your $$$ where your mouth resides? Please. Much easier to S___post on TSW, right? It costs you nothing, but, it costs our time.

 

So, what you are saying is that instead of us admitting we were SO WRONG at predicting a horrible season at 4-12 or thereabouts, your unbridled optimism and your wide open coffers at us missing the playoffs, missing out on savory draft position for a trade, AND going a middling 7-9 or 8-8 is SO much better?

 

Also, now you are BRAGGING about how much MONEY you make as well?

 

Is that all there is to life with you is money and braggadocio? REALLY? Well let me tell you, there are PLENTY of sports franchises out there who have much larger payrolls in other sports that fail regularly and people that get paid a hell of a lot more than I do that fail regularly and/or are miserable human beings. If you want to bring up this constant of $$$$ value uber alles to make a point on a MESSAGE BOARD, then I suggest you look inwards and stop inflicting verbal diarrhea on others here.

 

Teachable moments, right?

Edited December 15, 2017 by EasternOHBillsFan

[Ol Dirty B]

Just now, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

1. I quote you:

 

 

So, what you are saying is that instead of us admitting we were SO WRONG at predicting a horrible season at 4-12 or thereabouts, your unbridled optimism and your wide open coffers at us missing the playoffs, missing out on savory draft position for a trade, AND going a middling 7-9 or 8-8 is SO much better?

 

Also, now you are BRAGGING about how much MONEY you make as well?

 

Is that all there is to life with you is money and braggadocio? REALLY? Well let me tell you, there are PLENTY of sports franchises out there who have much larger payrolls in other sports and people that get paid a hell of a lot more than I do that fail regularly and/or are miserable human beings. If you want to bring up this constant of $$$$ value uber alles to make a point on a MESSAGE BOARD, then I suggest you look inwards in stop inflicting verbal diarrhea on others here.

 

Teachable moments, right?

 

I know we've disagreed before... but this dude is just delusional. I got some insults for him, but I just try not to stoop to that level but I can think of a few things ailing him.

 

The guy has some serious confidence issues. I'll just leave it at that. He's certifiably nuts. That's the first time I've ever felt that about someone on here. I mean just not like wow you're a homer nuts, or I completely disagree with you, I think you're nuts.

 

He is on some hearing voices level of nuts.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

Just now, Ol Dirty B said:

 

I know we've disagreed before... but this dude is just delusional. I got some insults for him, but I just try not to stoop to that level but I can think of a few things ailing him.

 

The guy has some serious confidence issues. I'll just leave it at that. He's certifiably nuts. That's the first time I've ever felt that about someone on here. I mean just not like wow you're a homer nuts, or I completely disagree with you, I think you're nuts.

 

He is on some hearing voices level of nuts.

 

I predicted the Bills would win less than 7 games, based on the new staff and our weaknesses, and I was wrong. Cool. This guy takes that to a whole new level, as if his whole life depended on him being right, which is odd indeed.

 

I know I can be opinionated as hell, but predictions are just that. Not one of us are Nostradamus to be sure. LOL

[OCinBuffalo]

1 minute ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

Wow... I said this about Dunkirk Don... But have you ever watched the movie, A Beautiful Mind? Because you're on that stuff right now.

 

You talk about my recent posts, I'm not sure what that even means. I've been on here, maybe a month? I'd consider everything I post to be recent. Is Bills-beater a former poster you are referring to? It took me a second, that's out of left field. Because if you think I'm someone else other than ODB, you're wrong. Which seems like something you struggle with ever being and will always.

 

Honestly, you sound like you have some serious problems, you force people to make corrections by being accountable. What exactly are they correcting. Look, I'll say I thought this was a 4-6 win team. Nothing posted on here, I'm not sure what the big deal is about someone holding that opinion.

 

Then you start bringing up incomes and patriarchy... Seriously, are you !@#$ing wacked? You don't know me, what ever makes you feel good about yourself, sure believe I'm broke or whatever. I want you to get this as clear as you can, you come across as a complete !@#$ and I'm doing just fine.

 

We're talking football and you start talking patriarchy. How am I even supposed to take it other than you must be strung out or crazy? Seriously, what the !@#$ are you even talking about? 

 

Heh, the above post is an object lesson in why letting people speak as much as possible is optimal. You admit that you thought it was a 4-6 win team...that now has 7 wins. I have corrected you. You're factually incorrect, now you can either own up to it and explain why, or, you can turtle, or...you can write the above.

 

Perhaps you don't understand the term "lurk". I have read your posts, but not responded to them. Thus, I have "lurked". My lack of response doesn't mean I haven't identified a pattern with you, and, you just allocuted to your 4-6 mind-set. I called you a Bills-beater...because it's intrinsic to a wife-beater...but without the divorce, loss of custody, incarceration, fines and community service. 

 

So, it's a better choice than wife-beating, but, that doesn't make it a good choice.

[Ol Dirty B]

1 minute ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

I predicted the Bills would win less than 7 games, based on the new staff and our weaknesses, and I was wrong. Cool. This guy takes that to a whole new level, as if his whole life depended on him being right, which is odd indeed.

 

I know I can be opinionated as hell, but predictions are just that. Not one of us are Nostradamus to be sure. LOL

 

We all get **** wrong, except for this guy apparently.

 

[EasternOHBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

We all get **** wrong, except for this guy apparently.

 

 

I would LOVE to be proven wrong about a Bills QB JUST ONCE... still waiting brother

Edited December 15, 2017 by EasternOHBillsFan

[Ol Dirty B]

7 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Heh, the above post is an object lesson in why letting people speak as much as possible is optimal. You admit that you thought it was a 4-6 win team...that now has 7 wins. I have corrected you. You're factually incorrect, now you can either own up to it and explain why, or, you can turtle, or...you can write the above.

 

Perhaps you don't understand the term "lurk". I have read your posts, but not responded to them. Thus, I have "lurked". My lack of response doesn't mean I haven't identified a pattern with you, and, you just allocuted to your 4-6 mind-set. I called you a Bills-beater...because it's intrinsic to a wife-beater...but without the divorce, loss of custody, incarceration, fines and community service. 

 

So, it's a better choice than wife-beating, but, that doesn't make it a good choice.

 

OK I thought that at first with the Bills beater comment but was lost. I'll say I was wrong... I have no problem admitting it. I could sit here and argue with it, but then I'd be bombarded with being labelled a conspiracy theorist, something about patriarchy, and then insulted about my bank account in regards to yours. They over achieved in my opinion.

 

You're seriously wacked dude, if you want to discuss my posts, let's discuss them. But if you want me to argue against what has happened, I'm simply not going to. The team is at least a 7 win team, so arguing they are a 4-6 win team is simply revisionist history.

 

I've never had an problem admitting I was wrong. You are clearly the person who struggles with that... You're !@#$ed... No ifs, and or buts

 

You compared my opinion of the Bills to beating a woman

Edited December 15, 2017 by Ol Dirty B

[OCinBuffalo]

9 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

I quote you:

 

 

So, what you are saying is that instead of us admitting we were SO WRONG at predicting a horrible season at 4-12 or thereabouts, your unbridled optimism and your wide open coffers at us missing the playoffs, missing out on savory draft position for a trade, AND going a middling 7-9 or 8-8 is SO much better?

 

Also, now you are BRAGGING about how much MONEY you make as well?

 

Is that all there is to life with you is money and braggadocio? REALLY? Well let me tell you, there are PLENTY of sports franchises out there who have much larger payrolls in other sports that fail regularly and people that get paid a hell of a lot more than I do that fail regularly and/or are miserable human beings. If you want to bring up this constant of $$$$ value uber alles to make a point on a MESSAGE BOARD, then I suggest you look inwards and stop inflicting verbal diarrhea on others here.

 

Teachable moments, right?

Yeah: I think the teaching here should begin with why somebody would make a definitive claim that "this is a 4-5-6( they keep moving the goal posts)" team....when...probability, odds, math, reason, basically anything didactic...suggested then, and now, that if they bet their house on that at the beginning of the season, when then made their claims, they'd be living in van, down by the river, right now.

 

Now, the question that confronts you is: would you like to know why predicting 4-12, on any NFL team, in any NFL season, is a loser's bet? Or, do you want to keep living in your van, down by the river?

[Ol Dirty B]

3 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Yeah: I think the teaching here should begin with why somebody would make a definitive claim that "this is a 4-5-6( they keep moving the goal posts)" team....when...probability, odds, math, reason, basically anything didactic...suggested then, and now, that if they bet their house on that at the beginning of the season, when then made their claims, they'd be living in van, down by the river, right now.

 

Now, the question that confronts you is: would you like to know why predicting 4-12, on any NFL team, in any NFL season, is a loser's bet? Or, do you want to keep living in your van, down by the river?

 

Their over under wasn't 4.5 wins... So that was never a bet, anyone ever made this year. He also didn't bet money on 4 wins I'm guessing.

 

Do you suffer from some kind of personality disorder?  You truly are odd.

Edited December 15, 2017 by Ol Dirty B

[OCinBuffalo]

13 minutes ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

I know we've disagreed before... but this dude is just delusional. I got some insults for him, but I just try not to stoop to that level but I can think of a few things ailing him.

 

The guy has some serious confidence issues. I'll just leave it at that. He's certifiably nuts. That's the first time I've ever felt that about someone on here. I mean just not like wow you're a homer nuts, or I completely disagree with you, I think you're nuts.

 

He is on some hearing voices level of nuts.

Blah blah. 

 

Respond to the substance of the post. The trouble is: you can't, can you? The material my assertions are based on should, and I use that word cautiously given today's education system, be available to review in any 11th grade math textbook. We're not doing differential equations here. This is basic probability. The very nature of the NFL means, with regards to schedule prediction/playoff odds, the material in that textbook is all that is required.

 

So, are you forgetting your 11th grade math...or....

15 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

I predicted the Bills would win less than 7 games, based on the new staff and our weaknesses, and I was wrong. Cool. This guy takes that to a whole new level, as if his whole life depended on him being right, which is odd indeed.

 

I know I can be opinionated as hell, but predictions are just that. Not one of us are Nostradamus to be sure. LOL

My point, as simply as I can state it is: that's not what far too many on this board were claiming in September. They in essence, in terms of predicting the season, were not only claiming to be direct decedents of Nostradamus, but to have also created the Philosopher's Stone, figured out Mona Lisa's smile, and to have solved all the Borgia Murders.

 

They "knew" this was a 4-12 team. No, this is at worst a 7-9 team. Wrong is wrong, but definitively screaming from the church spires that you know 4-12...that's idiocy.

[Ol Dirty B]

12 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Blah blah. 

 

Respond to the substance of the post. The trouble is: you can't, can you? The material my assertions are based on should, and I use that word cautiously given today's education system, be available to review in any 11th grade math textbook. We're not doing differential equations here. This is basic probability. The very nature of the NFL means, with regards to schedule prediction/playoff odds, the material in that textbook is all that is required.

 

So, are you forgetting your 11th grade math...or....

My point, as simply as I can state it is: that's not what far too many on this board were claiming in September. They in essence, in terms of predicting the season, were not only claiming to be direct decedents of Nostradamus, but to have also created the Philosopher's Stone, figured out Mona Lisa's smile, and to have solved all the Borgia Murders.

 

They "knew" this was a 4-12 team. No, this is at worst a 7-9 team. Wrong is wrong, but definitively screaming from the church spires that you know 4-12...that's idiocy.

 

I get probability... No problems with it, but you never responded to how the probability of a team missing the playoffs for 17 years straight... Off the top of your head.

 

Anytime someone says something like that you go back to patriarchy, conspiracy or some other bs...

 

You said you lurked my posts and you know'em... then let's discuss them Russel Crowe.

 

Again, you said my opinion of the Bills was intrinsically wife beating. You're nuts dude. Get a grip

Edited December 15, 2017 by Ol Dirty B

[OCinBuffalo]

15 minutes ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

OK I thought that at first with the Bills beater comment but was lost. I'll say I was wrong... I have no problem admitting it. I could sit here and argue with it, but then I'd be bombarded with being labelled a conspiracy theorist, something about patriarchy, and then insulted about my bank account in regards to yours. They over achieved in my opinion.

 

You're seriously wacked dude, if you want to discuss my posts, let's discuss them. But if you want me to argue against what has happened, I'm simply not going to. The team is at least a 7 win team, so arguing they are a 4-6 win team is simply revisionist history.

Nah, just admitting you're wrong is fine. Anything else is surplus to requirements. 

 

Dude, I highly suggest you avoid bringing up history in any context in this discussion. You've already just proven you don't know the definition of revisionist history just now. I'd leave it at: you were wrong, and move on with your day. Also, I'd advise you to refrain from making any definitive statements in future. "We'll see" is the best way to go.

[Ol Dirty B]

4 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Nah, just admitting you're wrong is fine. Anything else is surplus to requirements. 

 

Dude, I highly suggest you avoid bringing up history in any context in this discussion. You've already just proven you don't know the definition of revisionist history just now. I'd leave it at: you were wrong, and move on with your day. Also, I'd advise you to refrain from making any definitive statements in future. "We'll see" is the best way to go.

 

No go on...

 

Let's see what you have to say.

 

You said my opinion of the Bills is the equivalent of domestic abuse. I want to hear what anyone has to say who is that far off the deep end.

 

You have nothing to say... This is why this gets drawn out, and bank accounts, and 11th grade math books get brought up. 

 

This team hasn't made the playoffs in 17 years, since you're a !@#$ing savant tell me what the probability of that is? You've gone on for 5 posts saying absolutely nothing. You know my posts, let's discuss. Enough with this stalling ****.

Edited December 15, 2017 by Ol Dirty B

[OCinBuffalo]

1 hour ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

I get probability... No problems with it, but you never responded to how the probability of a team missing the playoffs for 17 years straight... Off the top of your head.

 

You just proved, in that single statement, that you don't get probability at all.

 

Given the NFL format, it's probable that some(mathematical use here) teams are going to have long playoff droughts, as it is probable that some teams are going to have long playoff runs. While, it's just as probable that some teams will stay "in the hunt" meaning 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 for long periods of time. In fact, "in the hunt" is more probable than anything else, because of a widely accepted statistical tenet: regression towards the mean. Go do some research and find out how often the Bills have deviated from the 7-9 wins mode over the 17 years. Not often. So, the Bills are actually doing the MOST probable thing of any team.

 

During the 17 years...the Seahawks made the playoffs with a 7-9 record. That's an anomaly, but it is true. Meanwhile, we've had an outlying but, no less dependent variable, in our division, the Patriots, who by definition have reduced our chances of making the playoffs, by making it themselves...for 16 of 17 years, with the miss year posting an 11-5 record.

 

The Bills have produced teams that would have made the playoffs if they were in other AFC divisions, and certainly in the NFC, for the last 17 years. This is a matter of fact, not opinion. In fact the Bills not making the playoffs is a statistical outlier, just like them getting never getting 0 wins, and/or being 4-12, that cannot be defined solely by the Bills themselves. Outside variables are obviously in play, which, is to be expected, again, given the NFL model. The Pats being good, our dominance over Miami...these are the are the unusual variables that keep us "in the hunt" == never good, and never bad.

 

Example: This year the Bills are IN the BEST AFC Division, East(.539 win %[all % rounded up]) 

playing the BEST NFC division, South(.577)

playing the 2nd BEST AFC division, West(.477)

It's highly improbable that the Bills have a winning record, but they do: fact.

 

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are IN the 2nd WORST AFC Division, South(.457),

playing the WORST AFC Division, North(.442)

playing 2nd WORST NFC Division(.500), West.

It's highly probable that they should be the #1 seed, but they aren't: fact.

 

These facts confront you: what will you do with them? Turtle? Call me crazy again?  Or will you realize that math...is math, and, even under pressure, regression towards the mean, in this case, dragging the Bills up from expectation, and Jags, down, is how math works? Do you understand that a 4-12 record is much less probable, than an 8-8 record, yet? Thus, do you understand that "knowing" the Bills are a 4-6 win team, before they've even played a single game...is silly, when we actually know that EVERY team is most likely to be a 7-9 win team when the season is done?

 

EDIT: Best of all, you could go do research and realize that in a 3 way tie...strength of schedule favors us for the rest of the season.

Edited December 15, 2017 by OCinBuffalo

[billsfan60]

4 hours ago, OCinBuffalo said:

You just proved, in that single statement, that you don't get probability at all.

 

Given the NFL format, it's probable that some(mathematical use here) teams are going to have long playoff droughts, as it is probable that some teams are going to have long playoff runs. While, it's just as probable that some teams will stay "in the hunt" meaning 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 for long periods of time. In fact, "in the hunt" is more probable than anything else, because of a widely accepted statistical tenet: regression towards the mean. Go do some research and find out how often the Bills have deviated from the 7-9 wins mode over the 17 years. Not often. So, the Bills are actually doing the MOST probable thing of any team.

 

During the 17 years...the Seahawks made the playoffs with a 7-9 record. That's an anomaly, but it is true. Meanwhile, we've had an outlying but, no less dependent variable, in our division, the Patriots, who by definition have reduced our chances of making the playoffs, by making it themselves...for 16 of 17 years, with the miss year posting an 11-5 record.

 

The Bills have produced teams that would have made the playoffs if they were in other AFC divisions, and certainly in the NFC, for the last 17 years. This is a matter of fact, not opinion. In fact the Bills not making the playoffs is a statistical outlier, just like them getting never getting 0 wins, and/or being 4-12, that cannot be defined solely by the Bills themselves. Outside variables are obviously in play, which, is to be expected, again, given the NFL model. The Pats being good, our dominance over Miami...these are the are the unusual variables that keep us "in the hunt" == never good, and never bad.

 

Example: This year the Bills are IN the BEST AFC Division, East(.539 win %[all % rounded up]) 

playing the BEST NFC division, South(.577)

playing the 2nd BEST AFC division, West(.477)

It's highly improbable that the Bills have a winning record, but they do: fact.

 

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are IN the 2nd WORST AFC Division, South(.457),

playing the WORST AFC Division, North(.442)

playing 2nd WORST NFC Division(.500), West.

It's highly probable that they should be the #1 seed, but they aren't: fact.

 

These facts confront you: what will you do with them? Turtle? Call me crazy again?  Or will you realize that math...is math, and, even under pressure, regression towards the mean, in this case, dragging the Bills up from expectation, and Jags, down, is how math works? Do you understand that a 4-12 record is much less probable, than an 8-8 record, yet? Thus, do you understand that "knowing" the Bills are a 4-6 win team, before they've even played a single game...is silly, when we actually know that EVERY team is most likely to be a 7-9 win team when the season is done?

 

EDIT: Best of all, you could go do research and realize that in a 3 way tie...strength of schedule favors us for the rest of the season.

And this, children, is why I tell you to just say "NO" to drugs.

Edited December 15, 2017 by billsfan60

[BringBackOrton]

4 hours ago, OCinBuffalo said:

You just proved, in that single statement, that you don't get probability at all.

 

Given the NFL format, it's probable that some(mathematical use here) teams are going to have long playoff droughts, as it is probable that some teams are going to have long playoff runs. While, it's just as probable that some teams will stay "in the hunt" meaning 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 for long periods of time. In fact, "in the hunt" is more probable than anything else, because of a widely accepted statistical tenet: regression towards the mean. Go do some research and find out how often the Bills have deviated from the 7-9 wins mode over the 17 years. Not often. So, the Bills are actually doing the MOST probable thing of any team.

 

During the 17 years...the Seahawks made the playoffs with a 7-9 record. That's an anomaly, but it is true. Meanwhile, we've had an outlying but, no less dependent variable, in our division, the Patriots, who by definition have reduced our chances of making the playoffs, by making it themselves...for 16 of 17 years, with the miss year posting an 11-5 record.

 

The Bills have produced teams that would have made the playoffs if they were in other AFC divisions, and certainly in the NFC, for the last 17 years. This is a matter of fact, not opinion. In fact the Bills not making the playoffs is a statistical outlier, just like them getting never getting 0 wins, and/or being 4-12, that cannot be defined solely by the Bills themselves. Outside variables are obviously in play, which, is to be expected, again, given the NFL model. The Pats being good, our dominance over Miami...these are the are the unusual variables that keep us "in the hunt" == never good, and never bad.

 

Example: This year the Bills are IN the BEST AFC Division, East(.539 win %[all % rounded up]) 

playing the BEST NFC division, South(.577)

playing the 2nd BEST AFC division, West(.477)

It's highly improbable that the Bills have a winning record, but they do: fact.

 

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are IN the 2nd WORST AFC Division, South(.457),

playing the WORST AFC Division, North(.442)

playing 2nd WORST NFC Division(.500), West.

It's highly probable that they should be the #1 seed, but they aren't: fact.

 

These facts confront you: what will you do with them? Turtle? Call me crazy again?  Or will you realize that math...is math, and, even under pressure, regression towards the mean, in this case, dragging the Bills up from expectation, and Jags, down, is how math works? Do you understand that a 4-12 record is much less probable, than an 8-8 record, yet? Thus, do you understand that "knowing" the Bills are a 4-6 win team, before they've even played a single game...is silly, when we actually know that EVERY team is most likely to be a 7-9 win team when the season is done?

 

EDIT: Best of all, you could go do research and realize that in a 3 way tie...strength of schedule favors us for the rest of the season.

The Jets and the Dolphins have made the postseason multiple times in the last 17 years.

 

"But but but don't they have to play the Pats too?!?!"

 

Enough.

[GunnerBill]

36 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

The Jets and the Dolphins have made the postseason multiple times in the last 17 years.

 

"But but but don't they have to play the Pats too?!?!"

 

Enough.

 

I think you are missing OC's point.  He is not arguing that it was impossible for the Bills to have made the playoffs.  He is arguing that when you look at the factors for why they haven't their own suckitude and poor decision making is only one factor.  The existence of the Patriots and the NFL division system are other variables that need to be accounted for.  No other division in the NFL has had a single team win double figure games for 14 consecutive seasons.  Therefore no other division has consistently has such a high bar for getting in.  The Dolphins and Jets have made it a couple of times each and it is to their credit because they have overcome those odds that make it more probable than not that they don't make it.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Analytics  do not win or lose games.   

 

Earlier in the week I posted what I heard on the local sports radio show. 

 

Washington has a higher DVOA than both Buffalo and Tampa yet have 2 or more losses than the 2.  

 

The 4 win guys were being negative Nancy’s and some of them at the time were high on Taylor.   

 

When hr bottom fell out the 4 winners bumped this thread to brag how right they were.   

Do we really need more LAMP posts?

Edited December 15, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan

[Samwell Tarly]

When you focus on the running game and defense and neglect quarterback, you end up with 6 to 8 wins pretty regularly.

[Sweats]

Hey guys, look at me!!!!!............i'm calling out everyone that ever said 4-12 cause its ridiculous.

 

However, there's nothing wrong with 5-11, 6-10, 7-9, 8-8 cause these are sooooooooooo much better.

[Real McClappy]

5 hours ago, Sweats said:

Hey guys, look at me!!!!!............i'm calling out everyone that ever said 4-12 cause its ridiculous.

 

However, there's nothing wrong with 5-11, 6-10, 7-9, 8-8 cause these are sooooooooooo much better.

IKR!

For a mathematical genius on outliers, you would think he would get why people would predict 4-12 to 8-8 season based off history and the roster coaching, FO, and player turnover?  This guy is calling out everyone as a clown when in fact he is the only clown in this thread. There is no math or science needed to prove this, just what is written.

 

 

Edited December 15, 2017 by Real McCoy

[BringBackOrton]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think you are missing OC's point.  He is not arguing that it was impossible for the Bills to have made the playoffs.  He is arguing that when you look at the factors for why they haven't their own suckitude and poor decision making is only one factor.  The existence of the Patriots and the NFL division system are other variables that need to be accounted for.  No other division in the NFL has had a single team win double figure games for 14 consecutive seasons.  Therefore no other division has consistently has such a high bar for getting in.  The Dolphins and Jets have made it a couple of times each and it is to their credit because they have overcome those odds that make it more probable than not that they don't make it.  

The bar is high to out compete the Pats, not insurmountable. 

 

You know what bar is low? Make the playoffs once in 17 seasons. Gross incompetence is the key factor here. To try to explain it away, "The playoffs are hard! The Pats are too good! The AFC South!" is ridiculous.

 

There are 32 NFL teams, some of them have sucked hard for YEARS. But the Bills and the Bills alone hold the title of longest playoff drought almost ever.

 

The Browns play in one of the strongest divisions year in and year out. The Steelers and Ravens, along with the Bengals sprinkled in, are almost always playoff teams. Do they  have the longest active drought streak? No.

 

Stop. The. Excuses. The Bills #1 problem is and always has been, THE BILLS.

[GoBills808]

So I think it's pretty clear here that the Bills' inability to make the postseason is attributable solely to their fanbases' collective mathematical incompetency. We don't need a QB, we need remedial algebra.

[Virgil]

I like the money pit. That is my answer 

[rodneykm]

To a lot of people "being realistic" means being super negative. Sometimes that makes sense, but not in our case this year. We were a team on the verge of the playoffs last year. I can't not see how anyone would think we'd be less than a 7 to 9 win team. "4 and 10" is just someones way of getting attention. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Playoffs or no playoffs McD has done a really good job in his 1st year as a HC with the players at his disposal. The talent and depth on the roster needs to be upgraded but McD is doing a good job in his 1st year. 

[Ol Dirty B]

20 hours ago, OCinBuffalo said:

You just proved, in that single statement, that you don't get probability at all.

 

Given the NFL format, it's probable that some(mathematical use here) teams are going to have long playoff droughts, as it is probable that some teams are going to have long playoff runs. While, it's just as probable that some teams will stay "in the hunt" meaning 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 for long periods of time. In fact, "in the hunt" is more probable than anything else, because of a widely accepted statistical tenet: regression towards the mean. Go do some research and find out how often the Bills have deviated from the 7-9 wins mode over the 17 years. Not often. So, the Bills are actually doing the MOST probable thing of any team.

 

During the 17 years...the Seahawks made the playoffs with a 7-9 record. That's an anomaly, but it is true. Meanwhile, we've had an outlying but, no less dependent variable, in our division, the Patriots, who by definition have reduced our chances of making the playoffs, by making it themselves...for 16 of 17 years, with the miss year posting an 11-5 record.

 

The Bills have produced teams that would have made the playoffs if they were in other AFC divisions, and certainly in the NFC, for the last 17 years. This is a matter of fact, not opinion. In fact the Bills not making the playoffs is a statistical outlier, just like them getting never getting 0 wins, and/or being 4-12, that cannot be defined solely by the Bills themselves. Outside variables are obviously in play, which, is to be expected, again, given the NFL model. The Pats being good, our dominance over Miami...these are the are the unusual variables that keep us "in the hunt" == never good, and never bad.

 

Example: This year the Bills are IN the BEST AFC Division, East(.539 win %[all % rounded up]) 

playing the BEST NFC division, South(.577)

playing the 2nd BEST AFC division, West(.477)

It's highly improbable that the Bills have a winning record, but they do: fact.

 

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are IN the 2nd WORST AFC Division, South(.457),

playing the WORST AFC Division, North(.442)

playing 2nd WORST NFC Division(.500), West.

It's highly probable that they should be the #1 seed, but they aren't: fact.

 

These facts confront you: what will you do with them? Turtle? Call me crazy again?  Or will you realize that math...is math, and, even under pressure, regression towards the mean, in this case, dragging the Bills up from expectation, and Jags, down, is how math works? Do you understand that a 4-12 record is much less probable, than an 8-8 record, yet? Thus, do you understand that "knowing" the Bills are a 4-6 win team, before they've even played a single game...is silly, when we actually know that EVERY team is most likely to be a 7-9 win team when the season is done?

 

EDIT: Best of all, you could go do research and realize that in a 3 way tie...strength of schedule favors us for the rest of the season.

 

I've said nothing that is counter to this. You talk about my posts, and you've responded to nothing I've ever said.

 

The team had some luck with turnovers, when that well dried up, the over achieving stopped. You should know, since you like to steep yourself into the numbers, that turnover differential, like fumbles, are the most inconsistent statistics, almost random. They change year to year a ton, I'm sure you read Barnwell since you love numbers so much. The Bills got to 5-2 riding a wave of turnovers that just was not going to continue. That's how they got to where they are now. 

 

I also like the fact that you're treating the longest post season drought in North American sports as though it statistically makes sense. Their are always outliers, you should know this. That's what the Bills are. 

 

9 hours ago, rodneykm said:

To a lot of people "being realistic" means being super negative. Sometimes that makes sense, but not in our case this year. We were a team on the verge of the playoffs last year. I can't not see how anyone would think we'd be less than a 7 to 9 win team. "4 and 10" is just someones way of getting attention. 

 

Yea, you'd get a lot of attention if you predicted "4 and 10"

Edited December 16, 2017 by Ol Dirty B

[BeginnersMind]

Was there a link in this thread where he posted his preseason prediction of how they'd do?