What went wrong in 2011?

[Wayne Arnold]

 

He got hit in the back of the head by a trailing defender softer than my young kid hits my 55+ yr old head every day several times with no concussion, stars, or dizziness.

 

Yep. That was the scary part about it. Goes to show how messed up his brain already was. I feel for the guy and hope he's getting through okay.

[eball]

I didn't read this thread but assume I'm repeating what others have said about 2011. There was a thread at the time that the Bills' method of winning "was not sustainable" and while a lot of folks (probably myself included) didn't want to believe it, it was pretty obvious the defense was terrible and they were winning with late-game heroics and fluke plays. Fitz regressed to his mean, FredEx got hurt, and they were exposed.

[GunnerBill]

 

 

Big difference is the 2017 defense isn't the bend but don't break version they featured in 2011. At the same time, neither the 2011 or 2017 defenses were/are generating a lot of pass rush.

 

The difference is this D can get people off the field without turnovers. The 2011 D ONLY got people off the field with takeaways.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

First, awesome game and team win. This team looks solid and has far exceeded my expectations at this point this year.

 

I can't help but think of the last time we started out 5-2 back in 2011. Ironically that year too they played the Jets in Week 9, hopefully this year will produce a much better result! If you recall that game was at The Ralph where the fans tried to have a White Out. It was an epic disaster that day, we got smashed.

 

But what went wrong that year? They just got exposed as being not that deep? Freddie was also out I believe the second half of the year and teams knew how to play against Gailey and Fitz's game plan more I think.

 

I'd imagine this team has more depth.

 

1) The Bills finished the year with the #30 defense on PA. They gave up astounding amounts of yards - >400 yards in 5 of their first 6 games, including 3 of the 4 they won.

We had George Edwards as DC and Nick Barnett, 30 and past his best, was by far our best LB. If we couldn't get a pick we couldn't stop anyone, especially the run. We were like 28th in the league for rush yards given up. Once teams figured that out, they ran the ball down our throats and dared us to stop them.

 

Time remains to tell if we'll be able to continue to stop the run this year without Dareus and improve our pass D.

 

2) We had Ryan Fitzpatrick as QB, and under Gailey, were basically asking him to carry the team on his arm. Which he tried to do, at the cost of 5 games with 3 or more INTs. Especially after Fitz reportedly cracked ribs in the win vs Washington, that may have contributed to the next 6 losses. But ribs or no ribs, Fitz is NOT the QB who can carry a team on his arm. Give him a decent D and a decent run game and ask him to pass enough to keep the opposition honest. Why Gailey continued to call games as though he had Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees under center, is a total mystery. I guess he just couldn't compromise.

 

3) FredEx was pretty much our run game, and we lost him after game 10 for the rest of the season, which put a big crimp in our rushing game. We had one horrid game with 46 rush yards and two others with <100

 

So will this year be different? The long-term wisdom of Castillo's blocking schemes and Dennison's play calling remains to be determined. Certainly Tyrod is not the guy to win a game with his arm throwing for >300 yds week after week.

But he won't throw it away like Fitz either. We do seem able to get some stops on D, and our run D is pretty stout which is promising - but we have given up >300 pass yards the last 3 games, which is NOT.

 

We need to improve on D, especially we need some pass rush from somewhere. We're like tied for 5th fewest sacks achieved.

Edited October 31, 2017 by Hapless Bills Fan

[corta765]

The Bills were simply a below-average team, who played above their heads early in the season. They had a couple close wins that could have gone either way. Ryan Fitzpatrick was playing better than any other point during his career. Eventually it was bound to collapse. Seasons like 2011 are one of the reasons I remain a hardcore skeptic with the Bills. I'm (very slowly) starting to believe in this team. But it's really hard not to worry things will eventually fall apart.

 

The signs that a good start is "fluky" usually include:

- Playing weak opponents

- Winning lots of close games

- Being the beneficiary of an unusual amount of penalty calls, fumbles and "lucky" plays

- Staying virtually injury free

- Normally average or bad players suddenly looking great

 

 

The 2017 Bills have some of the warning signs. Almost all of their wins have been very close. They have gotten huge contributions from guys with less than stellar careers (Jordan Poyer, EJ Gaines, Micah Hyde, Ramon Humber, Deonte Thompson, etc.) They have gotten a ridiculous amount of fumbles and tipped interceptions. But they have also managed to beat some pretty good teams, overcome lots of injuries and most of their turnovers have been a result of being in great position.

 

Not trying to start a pissing match but Micah Hyde was a quite well respected SAF league wide and GB hated losing him. Gaines actually was quite good in previous seasons minus injuries and a year with bad scheme but that was the Rams D in general.

 

Otherwise agree with what you said on warning signs.

[corta765]

 

1) The Bills finished the year with the #30 defense on PA. They gave up astounding amounts of yards - >400 yards in 5 of their first 6 games, including 3 of the 4 they won.

We had George Edwards as DC and Nick Barnett, 30 and past his best, was by far our best LB. If we couldn't get a pick we couldn't stop anyone, especially the run. We were like 28th in the league for rush yards given up. Once teams figured that out, they ran the ball down our throats and dared us to stop them.

 

Time remains to tell if we'll be able to continue to stop the run this year without Dareus and improve our pass D.

 

2) We had Ryan Fitzpatrick as QB, and under Gailey, were basically asking him to carry the team on his arm. Which he tried to do, at the cost of 5 games with 3 or more INTs. Especially after Fitz reportedly cracked ribs in the win vs Washington, that may have contributed to the next 6 losses. But ribs or no ribs, Fitz is NOT the QB who can carry a team on his arm. Give him a decent D and a decent run game and ask him to pass enough to keep the opposition honest. Why Gailey continued to call games as though he had Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees under center, is a total mystery. I guess he just couldn't compromise.

 

3) FredEx was pretty much our run game, and we lost him after game 10 for the rest of the season, which put a big crimp in our rushing game. We had one horrid game with 46 rush yards and two others with <100

 

So will this year be different? The long-term wisdom of Castillo's blocking schemes and Dennison's play calling remains to be determined. Certainly Tyrod is not the guy to win a game with his arm throwing for >300 yds week after week.

But he won't throw it away like Fitz either. We do seem able to get some stops on D, and our run D is pretty stout which is promising - but we have given up >300 pass yards the last 3 games, which is NOT.

 

We need to improve on D, especially we need some pass rush from somewhere. We're like tied for 5th fewest sacks achieved.

 

Sorry but the 300 yard passing freakout take is really poorly constructed. Carr had to throw the ball nearly 50 times to hit over 300 yds and most of his yardage ended up being garbage. After the Bills scored to make it 27-14 Carr was only at 178 yards by the start of the 4th. I know beacuse I was there and literally saw the scoreboard say as much once we scored. Buffalo basically said sure go ahead and try to score we aren't giving anything big up. All of Carr's yard were basically underneath throws to the RB after. Against the Bengals the Bills allowed two very bad deep plays to Green which basically came down to White being a rookie. It happens against All pro WR's like Green and with how well White shadow'd Cooper I would say he adjusted quite well.

 

In regards to pass rush the Bills just faced Carr who gets the ball out nearly as fast as Brady. Good luck getting pressure the key is what they did, no big plays and force bad passes to get 3 and outs. Winston wasn't much different.

 

If your going to freak about the defense it should be because the LB core still is questionable in coverage and if Gaines/Poyer are out an extended period at some point the secondary will have a holes at points in coverage.

[Wayne Arnold]

Here are the Bills record around the time of the 5-2 start.

 

The secondary was pretty good, but the front seven was a train wreck from both a talent and scheme fit standpoint. Especially when Kyle Williams was out with an injury.

 

The offense roster was equally as bad.

[Nuncha]

Fitz got paid....

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Here are the Bills record around the time of the 5-2 start.

 

The secondary was pretty good, but the front seven was a train wreck from both a talent and scheme fit standpoint. Especially when Kyle Williams was out with an injury.

 

The offense roster was equally as bad.

 

 

I think im more surprised that the 2011 team won 5 games looking at that roster... yikes.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I also feel like Fitz was dealing with an injury sustained against the Redskins at Rogers. I don't think it was ever disclosed, but I believe he was dealing with a rib injury.

 

It was disclosed the off season. Cracked ribs.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

Sorry but the 300 yard passing freakout take is really poorly constructed. Carr had to throw the ball nearly 50 times to hit over 300 yds and most of his yardage ended up being garbage. After the Bills scored to make it 27-14 Carr was only at 178 yards by the start of the 4th. I know beacuse I was there and literally saw the scoreboard say as much once we scored. Buffalo basically said sure go ahead and try to score we aren't giving anything big up. All of Carr's yard were basically underneath throws to the RB after. Against the Bengals the Bills allowed two very bad deep plays to Green which basically came down to White being a rookie. It happens against All pro WR's like Green and with how well White shadow'd Cooper I would say he adjusted quite well.

 

In regards to pass rush the Bills just faced Carr who gets the ball out nearly as fast as Brady. Good luck getting pressure the key is what they did, no big plays and force bad passes to get 3 and outs. Winston wasn't much different.

 

If your going to freak about the defense it should be because the LB core still is questionable in coverage and if Gaines/Poyer are out an extended period at some point the secondary will have a holes at points in coverage.

 

I'm trying to figure out if this post is actually a response to anything I wrote. I think it's a cherry-pick on about 2 sentences.

 

To say we have given up >300 passing yards in the last 3 games is not a "freak out take" nor is it just about Carr. It is a fact. Jamais Winston and Andy Dalton lit us up also.

People who know me here know I have a nit to pick with the "Garbage time" concept - "Garbage time" is a made-up term for a comeback that falls short. We gave up 2 TD and let TB take the lead with 3 minutes left in the 4Q. You take a lead into the 4th Q and your D gives it up, it's a problem.

 

I didn't provide any detail about what I think is wrong with the pass defense, but yes, the secondary DOES have holes at points right now in coverage because we have a talent fall-off without Gaines and Poyer, and yes, the LB are questionable in coverage. A lot of NFL QB get the ball out quickly. It's what good NFL QB do, and long-term winning teams have to cope.

 

If you want to talk about "freaking out" the flip side is "making homer excuses". My point is neither - the OP was to discuss what went wrong in 2011 and whether/how this year may be different.

[bbb]

HIstory repeats itself.

[Another Fan]

HIstory repeats itself.

 

Yeah. I woke up this morning a little more level headed about this year. At the beginning of the year I expected a rebuild year. 5-3 actually wouldn't look too bad then.

 

Still last night showed there not a playoff team. Just like the Week 9 game in 2011 versus the Jets they were down by 3 at halftime and the final score wasn't indicative of how they got slammed. Bad games and fluky stuff could happen but being completely manhandled like that in an important game shows their not a playoff team yet like in 2011.

[Another Fan]

Yikes, in week 10 that year they lost to the Cowboys by 37 points.  This year they lost to the Saints by 37 points in week 10.  Making it 5-4 in both years.

 

Same results

[bbb]

On 11/12/2017 at 6:03 PM, Another Fan said:

Yikes, in week 10 that year they lost to the Cowboys by 37 points.  This year they lost to the Saints by 37 points in week 10.  Making it 5-4 in both years.

 

Same results

 

We don't need to know what went wrong in 2011.  We're watching in real time in 2017. 

[row_33]

Nobody gave a rats butt about Fitz until he started winning and then opposition took special interest in him and found he couldn’t hit a curve ball, so to speak

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Worryingly the thing that sunk us in 2011 (not getting offenses off the field except for turnovers) has been a problem is 3 of the last 4 games - after not being an issue through the first 5 weeks.  We only got the Buccs off the field with turnovers, then we did a good job of it against the Raiders but have not been able to with either the Jets or Saints.