WEEK 3 VS. DEN ALL 22- OLINE/QB UNFORCED ERROR REVIEW

[Bocephuz]

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not?

I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did /
How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalties but this should be 95% accurate)

Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field.

DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play)


_______ ______________________

TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 33 - (Last week was 35)

LINE BREAKDOWNS: 8/33 or 24% ( last week was 7/35 or 20% ). In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 24% of his drop backs. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate.. so lets say the O Line (including TEs.. more on that later) was below average against the Broncos

SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 25/33 or 76% (last week was28/35 or 80%). In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 76% of the time.

UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 1/33 or 3% ( last week was 7/35 or 20%) Based on my 2015/16 studies if the Bills' QBs commit 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game their odds of winning are solid. TT had 1 unforced error by my count which historically ties his lowest number. The only other time he had one unforced error was 2015 against the Titans in the comeback game where he got hurt.

BOTTOM LINE

DION DAWKINS - Von Miller blew by Dion Dawkins for a sack on the first play of the game .. and I must admit that scared the hell out of me. To Dawkins credit.. he rallied back and played quite well in pass protect the rest of the game.

 

Q1 12:19 – Von Miller undresses a timid Dion Dawkins

 

 

q2 :19 - Dawkins rallies and uses excellent technique, anchors and holds back 48. TT has time and delivers pass for first down

q2 15:00 - PLAY ACTION PERFECTION - this is what a real NFL offense should look like

- Play action to Shady sucks in Safety 31
- Great protection. Dawkins pancakes 91, Wood, Incognito solid, Mills and Miller seal of right side edge rush
- TT throws strike to Matthews on crossing route to area vacated by safety who was biting on play action

 

RICHIE INCOGNITO – Richie was solid for most of the day in pass protect. His one obviously bad play was when he was bull rushed into TTs lap causing a sack ( q4 4:05)

ERIC WOOD – Wood was generally very solid against Broncs. He had one play where he was late picking up stunt. This was the play in Q4 where Miller came up the middle on a stunt and hit Taylor (and was called for unsportsmanlike conduct

JOHN MILLER – Much better performance today from #76. He had a holding penalty in Q3 .. however.. he was trying to chip in and help out Jordan Mills who was beaten to the inside by Von Miller on a spin move. In other words.. if Mills can hold his own there then Miller would not have needed to hold to help him.

JORDAN MILLS – Turnstile. Mills was beaten in several ways. Of course it was a tough matchup with Von Miller over him some of the time still.. this is embarrasing

 

Lunging too far forward .. losing his balance and giving up the outside

And .. falling on his face as Miller beats him on Outside to Inside move

 

O LINE PASS BLOCK GRADES

DION DAWKINS – B
RICHIE INCOGNITO – B
ERIC WOOD - B
JOHN MILLER – B
JORDAN MILLS – D –

 

TIGHT ENDS STRUGGLE IN PASS PROTECT – Given.. a TE left alone with a DE or Edge Rusher is typically a mismatch and some of this is on Dennison for putting the TE’s in these situations. However.. you would at least like to see the TE put up some kind of resistance. Both Clay and O’Leary were very shaky in pass protect this game and they gave up several pressures. They may be decent run game blockers but the more I watch both TE’s are below avg pass blockers.

 

Q4 10:44 – O’Leary is beaten to the outside.. gives up pressure.. forcing TT to check down

 

Another O’Leary poor effort ( he's lined up next to LT)

TYROD UNFORCED ERRORS – I watched.. and re-watched to make sure I wasn’t missing anything and yes.. TT had 1 unforced error by my count in the Denver game. His footwork was solid (several examples of him hitting 5 step drop, climbing the pocket and letting it go on time) and he generally chose to throw to the open deeper guy over checking down (O’Leary sideline catch for example). Last week TT had 7 unforced errors – several of which were related to not pulling the trigger on intermediate and deep routes that were there. He didn’t really leave anything on the table against the Broncos. The slant throws to Zay Jones that were both dropped were good throws.. they had zip on them .. but a starting NFL receiver needs to pull those down. His one unforced error was q3 4:10 where he sensed phantom pressure, tucked his head down and threw well behind an open Kaelin Clay in the middle of the field.

TT GOOD FOOTWORK, TAKES HIT, GOOD THROW TO KAELIN CLAY -

Q2 14:07 - There are many, many things happening here

- Charles Clay (bottom left) gives a poor effort and 48 beats him to the outside.. hitting TT as he throws
- Play action sucks LB 54 in.. creating a seam for Kaelin Clay to get open in the deep right seam
- TT hits 5 step drop, climbs pocket, delivers throw on time and takes a hit

 

 

GAME SUMMARY
This is one of those games where the O Line was shaky. However, via scheme (play action, bootlegs) and by the QB getting the ball out on time and sticking in the pocket.. the Bills offense was still able to move the ball through the air despite Von Miller AND #48 Shaq Barret giving the Bills’ tackles and Tight Ends trouble most of the day. Denver did not really do much stunting or blitzing.. .relying more on their speedy ends to beat the Bills tackles or TE’s 1 on 1. Von Miller also did an excellent job keeping contain on the naked bootlegs. It was up to TT to account for him and beat him on these plays. Sometimes Von won.. sometimes TT won. On one such play (q2 6:54) – Miller did a great job staying home on the backside, getting in TT’s face and forcing an incompletion. However.. the O’Leary sideline catch was an example where Tyrod rolled out.. had Miller in his face.. but was able to throw around him for a huge 1st down to O’Leary. These naked bootlegs really come down to the QB being able to maneuver his way around whoever is shadowing him.. and Taylor is athletic enough to have a chance to win his share of these situations.

I don’t know if TT can sustain this momentum or not. There were a few glimpses last year where he had games like this.. and it looked like the light bulb was coming on but he would go on to regress the next few weeks. At any rate, as long as the defense is queuing on Shady and biting on play action TT should continue to have open windows to receivers manufactured for him to throw into.. and if he identifies them and pulls the trigger like he did last week going forward this offense could be relatively effective enough to make this a competitive team this year. The jury is still out on TT being a traditional pocket passer who can throw into tight windows.. but if this play action thing continues to work he has a chance to make some plays.

 

I am also very ..very encouraged by Dion Dawkins. Hopefully Glenn gets healthy again and Dawkins can move over to the right side to replace Mills. Or... god forbid.. Glenn gets flipped over to RT and Dawkins stays at LT? At any rate.. the sooner Mills sees the bench the better... however that happens.
__ _____



SIGNIFICANT PLAYS
Q1 – 12:19 – SACK – Dawkins bull rushed and beaten to the inside by Von Miller
Q1 – 6:22 – SACK – TT rolls out, good coverage ..coverage sack
Q2 15:00 - - Play action to Shady sucks in Safety 31
- Great protection. Dawkins pancakes 91, Wood, Incognito solid, Mills and Miller seal of right side edge rush
- TT throws strike to Matthews on crossing route to area vacated by safety who was biting on play action
Q2 14:37 – TT rolls right on bootleg, ..Von Miller does good job of staying home on backside, TT avoids sack but no throw

- Q2 14:07 – Charles Clay (bottom left) gives a poor effort and 48 beats him to the outside.. hitting TT as he throws
- Play action sucks LB 54 in.. creating a seam for Kaelin Clay to get open in the deep right seam
- TT hits 5 step drop, climbs pocket, delivers throw on time and takes a hit

Q2 6:54 – Von Miller stays home on backside of bootleg again… blows up the play and TT throws incompletion.

Q2 4:46 – Mills beaten by Miller – forces TT to scramble

Q2 3:40 - Zay Jones drops a well thrown slant

Q2 :19 – Dion Dawkins does excellent job anchoring and blocking Shaq Barrett allowing for TT completion

Q3 15:00 - SACK – O’Leary poor effort leads to sack

Q3 13:57 –HOLDING – Mills gets beaten by spin move to inside, Miller tries to help out but is called for holding

Q3 7:40 – O’LEARY AMAZING CATCH - TT has Von Miller in his face on a rollout and is able to throw around him .. on the run.. across his body for an incredible completion to O’Leary

Q3 – 6:54- Mills beaten again by outside speed rush.. TT still makes a nice throw to Matthews as he takes a hit.

Q3 4:10 - UNFORCED ERROR – TT sees phantom pressure, tucks his head down and when he pops back up .. makes off target throw in direction of open Kaelin Clay

Q4 : 7:43- Wood is late picking up Von Miller on a stunt.. Miller hits TT and causes incompletion ( and then flagged for Unsportsmanlike Penalty)

Edited September 27, 2017 by Bocephuz

[Royale with Cheese]

Is there seriously not at least a street free agent we can pick up and put at right tackle? He's going to be better than Mills.

I think Dawkins rotates at left tackle the remainder of the year with Glenn's foot issue.

[Kelly the Dog]

Thanks as usual for the awesome threads and work, sir.

 

Seems crazy that on one of the more poor blocking days for the line, TT had one of his best days as a passer. Would obviously seem counterintuitive. I assume it's an aberration. If it's not, TT may just be improving more substantial than most thought.

[NewEra]

Thanks for the work. Best weekly thread on the board imo

[QB Bills]

Great work, as usual.

 

Man, this Taylor guy sucks, eh?

[Bocephuz]

Thanks as usual for the awesome threads and work, sir.

 

Seems crazy that on one of the more poor blocking days for the line, TT had one of his best days as a passer. Would obviously seem counterintuitive. I assume it's an aberration. If it's not, TT may just be improving more substantial than most thought.

 

Does seem counterintuitive.. but the good QB's do it all the time. I've been watching Aaron Rodgers closely the last few weeks (I have football ticket and he is my fantasy QB). He has a horrendous O line..much worse than Bills ..but through his mobility and also by getting the ball out quickly he is able to counter the pressure he sees.

 

I think TT's real issue is fearing the "phantom pressure" more than fearing the real thing as crazy as that sounds. Good news is the phantom pressure only got him once this game... whereas most games it gets him 3 or 4 times.

 

Again.. a lot of this stems from the effective running game and play action which opens up windows for TT to throw into. I'm still not sure how he will do if defenses play the pass straight up and don't bite on Play Action.

Edited September 27, 2017 by Bocephuz

[Kelly the Dog]

Does seem counterintuitive.. but the good QB's do it all the time. I've been watching Aaron Rodgers closely the last few weeks (I have football ticket and he is my fantasy QB). He has a horrendous O line..much worse than Bills ..but though his mobility and also by getting the ball out quickly he is able to counter the pressure he sees.

 

I think TT's real issue is fearing the "phantom pressure" more than fearing the real thing as crazy as that sounds. Good news is the phantom pressure only got him once this game... whereas most games it gets him 3 or 4 times.

 

Again.. a lot of this stems from the effective running game and play action which opens up windows for TT to throw into. I'm still not sure how he will do if defenses play the pass straight up and don't bite on Play Action.

Yep. Good points. And way too early in the Dennison/McD era to know much about the offense. And TT is never going to be anything like Rodgers, obviously, simply because he is much more concerned with protecting the ball.

[eball]

He also missed a wide open Zay Jones in the 2nd quarter...that has to be considered an unforced error.

[Bocephuz]

Yep. Good points. And way too early in the Dennison/McD era to know much about the offense. And TT is never going to be anything like Rodgers, obviously, simply because he is much more concerned with protecting the ball.

 

Yes.. good point. He is way too conservative to every be able to even approach what Rodgers does. Rodgers makes 3 or 4 of those O'Leary throws per game.

He also missed a wide open Zay Jones in the 2nd quarter...that has to be considered an unforced error.

 

Perhaps I missed a play..

 

Like I say in my disclaimer.. I may have missed a snap or two.

Edited September 27, 2017 by Bocephuz

[Kelly the Dog]

He also missed a wide open Zay Jones in the 2nd quarter...that has to be considered an unforced error.

He was wide open and I think he had to make that play because anything within three yards of Zay and it's a catch. But there was a defender right in Tyrod's face if I recall. And hit him. Which clearly caused the misfire. I'm not sure that is an unforced error. He had SO much wiggle room that I think he HAS to make the pass (and I am just going from drinking memory on this, ha), but I thought a defender was right in Tyrod's face as he threw.

[eball]

He was wide open and I think he had to make that play because anything within three yards of Zay and it's a catch. But there was a defender right in Tyrod's face if I recall. And hit him. Which clearly caused the misfire. I'm not sure that is an unforced error. He had SO much wiggle room that I think he HAS to make the pass (and I am just going from drinking memory on this, ha), but I thought a defender was right in Tyrod's face as he threw.

 

I think you're right that a defender was honing in but he just missed it so badly. It was really the only play I cringed at by Tyrod all day; he was excellent.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

EDIT: I just watched it. There was a defender untouched coming right at him. He has to make the pass because Zay was so wide open. But he was being rushed and hurried which caused the bad throw. A quartersecond more time he probably hits it. But it's no excuse. TT has to make that completion. Not sure you would call that an unforced error though.

[Royale with Cheese]

EDIT: I just watched it. There was a defender untouched coming right at him. He has to make the pass because Zay was so wide open. But he was being rushed and hurried which caused the bad throw. A quartersecond more time he probably hits it. But it's no excuse. TT has to make that completion. Not sure you would call that an unforced error though.

 

I remember the play and I agree. Has to make that play but it wasn't easy.

If it was equivalent to baseball, he wouldn't be charged an error but he knows he should have made it.

[Blokestradamus]

I'm glad that I wasn't the only one that picked up the deficient game from the tight ends in pass pro.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

EDIT: I just watched it. There was a defender untouched coming right at him. He has to make the pass because Zay was so wide open. But he was being rushed and hurried which caused the bad throw. A quartersecond more time he probably hits it. But it's no excuse. TT has to make that completion. Not sure you would call that an unforced error though.

 

Yeah, I think an untouched defender who causes a rushed/bad throw is the definition of a forced error, not unforced.

[Kelly the Dog]

Yeah, I think an untouched defender who causes a rushed/bad throw is the definition of a forced error, not unforced.

 

True. But he had so much room for error. I think if you asked Tyrod, even considering the onrushing lineman, he would say I have to hit that pass ten out of ten times. I lean on the side of that play not being an unforced error, and it wasn't easy, it just has to be made every time. So I understand equating that with an unforced error.

[HappyDays]

Awesome stuff as usual. I didn't know the tight ends were part of the pass protection problem but it makes sense. Luckily we just faced arguably the two toughest front 7s in football in a row, so it will get much easier from here on out.

 

EDIT: I just watched it. There was a defender untouched coming right at him. He has to make the pass because Zay was so wide open. But he was being rushed and hurried which caused the bad throw. A quartersecond more time he probably hits it. But it's no excuse. TT has to make that completion. Not sure you would call that an unforced error though.

That play was so frustrating. Like you said he needed a quarter of a second more to make the throw. I don't really hold it against Tyrod but he probably holds it against himself.

[freddyjj]

Thanks for the great work and providing the gifs of plays. It is very telling. I for one would like OBD to consider making 2 changes after Bye week.

 

RG - Look to replace Miller with Ryan Groy who should be better one scheme G and will help run game immediately. Also consider using Dawkins here if Glenn and Henderson play tackle spots.

 

RT - Assuming Cordy Glenn heals up, let Henderson and Dawkins compete and split time at RT. Loser is Swing tackle. or kick Dawkins in to RG and let him compete there too. Most draft experst had him as a G candidate and I believe he is Richie's long term replacement as devastating as a Run blocker

[eball]

True. But he had so much room for error. I think if you asked Tyrod, even considering the onrushing lineman, he would say I have to hit that pass ten out of ten times. I lean on the side of that play not being an unforced error, and it wasn't easy, it just has to be made every time. So I understand equating that with an unforced error.

 

This is how I saw it. I call it "unforced" only because Zay was so freaking open that Tyrod could have thrown a below average pass and still completed it. He threw an awful pass.

[grb]

He was wide open and I think he had to make that play because anything within three yards of Zay and it's a catch. But there was a defender right in Tyrod's face if I recall. And hit him. Which clearly caused the misfire. I'm not sure that is an unforced error. He had SO much wiggle room that I think he HAS to make the pass (and I am just going from drinking memory on this, ha), but I thought a defender was right in Tyrod's face as he threw.

 

If it's the play I remember, there was a guy running right at him, so he tried to float an arc over the rusher and badly mis-threw. It ever there was a time to scramble a few steps clear and toss a bullet, this was it. Instead, Taylor opted for a finesse throw which looked ugly.