One Bills Dive? Why Fans Will Be Saying "Tank You" to Beane

[dezertbill]

Over the last two decades, the Buffalo Bills have tried just about everything to change their playoff fate. They have been frugal some years, and big spenders in others. They’ve hired Football czars, and have gone the decision-by-committee approach. They have hired high-profile head coaches, and coordinators with no head coaching experience. Every year has been painted as the year we “break the drought”. Yet every year Bills fans finding themselves spending Sundays in December Christmas shopping instead of watching meaningful football games.

 

So, when you have a playoff drought that is fast approaching the age to vote, it’s easy to see how fans would lose their collective minds when the Bills traded their top wide receiver and defensive back for what some consider less superior talent and draft picks. This, after bringing back defensive tackle Kyle Williams for a 12^th season and signing future Hall of Fame wide receiver Anquan Boldin to what could be his final season in moves that were sold as “win now.”

 

Yet, here we are, only a week into our pre-season schedule, and already the Bills seem to have flown the white flag over New Era Field.

 

On the surface, these trades come across as being talent-tilted against the Bills. But per Pro Football Focus, one could argue that point.

 

Wide receiver Sammy Watkins is coming off an injury-plagued season in 2016 where he contributed the lowest amount of snaps (381) in his career, and when he did play ranked 47th out of 115 receivers with a 76.8 grade. The former Clemson Tiger had his best season in 2015, when he achieved career highs in receiving yards (1,047) and TD’s (9). However, amongst starting receivers in the NFL that year he finished 22^nd in receiving yards and 14^th in touchdown receptions. Amongst his fellow 2014 draft classmates, he finished 6^th in receiving yards and 5^th in TD’s. This, coming from the first receiver taken in that draft.

 

Despite what the statistics tell you, the true knock on Watkins has been his health.

 

It all started his rookie season when he suffered what was thought to be a rib contusion but ended up being broken ribs in the 2^nd preseason game vs. the Steelers. He was listed on the injury report for the first five games of the regular season due to that injury, where he averaged five receptions for 57 yards, with only one 100-yard performance. In October, he suffered a groin injury, then a hip injury in November.

 

In 2015 he underwent off-season hip surgery and sat out the final three pre-season games with glute soreness. He found himself back on the injury report at the end of September with a calf injury and then on October 18^th when he suffered a sprained ankle vs. Cincinnati which cost him a game and hampered him the rest of the campaign.

The 2016 off season kicked off with a broken foot in the spring, which limited Watkins all season to only eight games played; totaling 28 receptions for 430 yards and two touchdowns.

 

The Bills had a scare last week when Watkins limped off the field into a training tent favoring his foot. Although the injury ended up being nothing serious, I’m sure the collective breath being held was the final straw for Beane and Company to move the oft-injured star.

 

In trading Watkins, the Bills received cornerback EJ Gaines and a second-round draft pick. Gaines himself has had a rocky career thus far. After being named the Rams 2014 Secret Superstar by Pro Football Focus his rookie year, he missed all of 2015 with a Lisfranc foot injury. Gaines struggled in 2016 while recovering from the injury, which saw him lose his starting role while earning a 37 grade from Pro Football Focus, ranking him 105 out of 110 qualifying cornerbacks.

 

Both players are in the final year of their deals. Both players must greatly exceed their career highs to be re-signed or even franchised by their respective teams. Although the Rams may roll the dice on Watkins if he does have a big year to save face after losing a draft pick, the Bills are under no such pressure.

 

Trading Watkins was a smart business decision. After three injury-plagued seasons, Beane knew he was sitting on a ticking time bomb with Watkins foot. Another injury might force another surgery, which could all but end Watkins season at any point in time. With one eye on the future, and a zero chance of re-signing an injury-prone player to a huge extension or even a franchise tag, Beane wanted to ensure he received SOMETHING for Watkins, which came in the form of a 2^nd round draft pick.

The Bills then made up for the loss of Watkins by obtaining Jordan Matthews from the Philadelphia Eagles along with a third-round draft pick for starting cornerback Ronald Darby. Drafted the same year as Watkins, Pro Football Focus has Matthews with more slot receiving yards over the last three seasons than Randall Cobb, Jarvis Landry, and Doug Baldwin.

Head Coach Sean McDermott and Eagles DC Jim Schwartz both run zone-heavy coverage, which Pro Football Focus graded Darby with a better passer rating in zone (85.2) than in man (123.2), which explains Darby’s struggle in Ryan’s’ heavy man defense last season. Playing each to their strengths, this seems to be a win/win for both the Bills and Eagles.

 

Although Darby looked to be a promising talent, Beane and McDermott have their eye on the bigger prize, which is the 2018 NFL Draft. Most prognosticators have pegged next April as the most talented QB draft in years. Unlike 2013, when former GM Doug Whaley chose the weakest QB draft class to fill the Bills franchise QB role, this regime seems to have their timing on point.

 

Last week’s trades landed the Bills some serious draft collateral. This from ESPN.COM’s article on Winners and Losers from the trades:

 

“As projected by FPI and using Stuart's chart, the Bills trading their sixth-round pick for Los Angeles' second-rounder and Philadelphia's third-round pick to trade the Rams pick and Eagles pick for pick 190 is roughly the equivalent of acquiring the 16th overall pick in a typical draft (17.1 points, closest to value of 16th pick, 16.9 points). That gives the Bills what essentially amounts to three first-round picks in the 2018 draft”

 

You only have to ask the beat writers who cover the team that Tyrod Taylor hasn’t looked like the answer this pre-season. Although I have been a big proponent of Taylor, it’s evident that his game isn’t at an elite level. Even if he does reach the same numbers he achieved in 2016, that would only make the Bills Offense a marginal playoff team. A team that, with a solid defense, would have to spend each season as a fringe playoff contender good for a wild card appearance or maybe a wild card win; rather than a team that is expected to compete for a Super Bowl every season.

 

At some point, for this team to achieve greatness, you must blow up the current model. Would you rather that happen now, or in year two or three of the regime, after we’ve MAYBE reached a wild card game, and at a time when the crop of QB’s coming out of college may not be at next spring’s level?

 

Yes, I know, it’s GM taboo to trade your starting WR and CB at the same time. In fairness, Darby has only been in the league for two seasons, so any struggles he has had could be contributed to that. But he regressed last year from his rookie season, which is never a good sign (See Kiko Alonso). With Watkins, the Bills passing game was never feared. The fact that he missed so many games while playing others hurt contributed to that. The new Bills Brass wasn’t in the position to risk that this season and lose him with nothing in return.

 

I still believe that even with the trades the Bills will be competitive. Sometimes it’s more about heart and system than it is about talent. (See Ted Nolan). McDermott has both, with a healthy topping of smarts.

 

As for the former Panther AGM, his clout on One Bills Drive seems to be growing by the day. Long gone is the “One Voice” moniker that Terry Pegula had Sean McDermott roll out to keep the press away from Whaley, who made public speaking look like a giraffe on ice skates. Even McDermott seemed caught off guard when told of the news after Friday’s pre-season game about the trade offers. That shows there is no buddy system in the building. The head coach is doing his job, as is the GM.

 

Beane has assembled a team of former GM’s and NFL Executives to fill lesser roles, yet bring their league experience and contacts to the table. There are many reasons why someone can be fired from their job, but it’s their experience and what they have learned from that failure that you cannot take away from them.

 

December 28, 2016 marked the 20^th anniversary of the last game played in a Bills uniform by Jim Kelly. Since then, the Bills have been through a plethora of QB’s that everyone knows, and would be a waste of time to list. It’s time that this franchise gets serious and makes a run at obtaining an elite one. Beane obviously has faith in his talent evaluators, and choosing the strongest draft class in years is perfect timing.

 

The Bills currently have enough currency to trade up or down anyway they choose. I expect that currency to grow as it’s apparent no player is off limits, and with the addition of a 3^rd round pick if the Bills cut some FA’s, I see that coming down the pike as well.

 

Two first round picks, two second round picks, and three third round picks. Sounds like a winning lottery ticket to me.

 

As a fan, you either have faith in Beane’s talent evaluating ability or you don’t. You either buy into the Bills desire to change the course and culture of this franchise from a fringe contender to Super Bowl contender, or you don’t. You either go all in for a championship mentality or play it safe in hopes that MAYBE this will be the year we will finally play a post season game.

 

Not win one, just play in one.

 

I’ve grown tired of all the references to the 90’s Super Bowl era. It’s time the Bills created some new championship memories. It’s time the Bills go all in to bring a serious Super Bowl contender to Buffalo.

 

In Beane and McDermott I trust. That’s not a bad thing.

Edited August 14, 2017 by dezertbill

[SoTier]

"In Beane and McDermott I trust. That’s not a bad thing." ...

 

Well, then, I'm sure you'll enjoy you'll enjoy the exciting 6-3 snorefest losses to assorted NFL bottom-feeders and all the 4 or 5 TD losses to real NFL teams over the next few years while awaiting the arrival of the glorious savior QB to be named later.

[teef]

"In Beane and McDermott I trust. That’s not a bad thing." ...

 

Well, then, I'm sure you'll enjoy you'll enjoy the exciting 6-3 snorefest losses to assorted NFL bottom-feeders and all the 4 or 5 TD losses to real NFL teams over the next few years while awaiting the arrival of the glorious savior QB to be named later.

do you think the bills shouldn't take a shot at qb? you really seem to be bent out of shape over taking one.

[4_kidd_4]

"In Beane and McDermott I trust. Thats not a bad thing." ...

 

Well, then, I'm sure you'll enjoy you'll enjoy the exciting 6-3 snorefest losses to assorted NFL bottom-feeders and all the 4 or 5 TD losses to real NFL teams over the next few years while awaiting the arrival of the glorious savior QB to be named later.

So...pretty much the same as it's been forever, except this time around it's with an apparent purpose.

 

I'll take a long term plan over the usual 'win now/we're close' sales pitch.

[YoloinOhio]

OP - who wrote this article?

[teef]

So...pretty much the same as it's been forever, except this time around it's with an apparent purpose.

 

I'll take a long term plan over the usual 'win now/we're close' sales pitch.

exactly.

[JMF2006]

Like Watkins and Darby are going to lead us to the playoffs.

 

Last I checked there are 11 guys on the field at once and if they execute the system properly things go well.

 

This team could still scoop a wildcard or the division if the Patsies run into injury troubles.

Edited August 14, 2017 by JMF2006

[Best Player Available]

Over the last two decades, the Buffalo Bills have tried just about everything to change their playoff fate. They have been frugal some years, and big spenders in others. They’ve hired Football czars, and have gone the decision-by-committee approach. They have hired high-profile head coaches, and coordinators with no head coaching experience. Every year has been painted as the year we “break the drought”. Yet every year Bills fans finding themselves spending Sundays in December Christmas shopping instead of watching meaningful football games.

 

So, when you have a playoff drought that is fast approaching the age to vote, it’s easy to see how fans would lose their collective minds when the Bills traded their top wide receiver and defensive back for what some consider less superior talent and draft picks. This, after bringing back defensive tackle Kyle Williams for a 12^th season and signing future Hall of Fame wide receiver Anquan Boldin to what could be his final season in moves that were sold as “win now.”

 

Yet, here we are, only a week into our pre-season schedule, and already the Bills seem to have flown the white flag over New Era Field.

 

On the surface, these trades come across as being talent-tilted against the Bills. But per Pro Football Focus, one could argue that point.

 

Wide receiver Sammy Watkins is coming off an injury-plagued season in 2016 where he contributed the lowest amount of snaps (381) in his career, and when he did play ranked 47th out of 115 receivers with a 76.8 grade. The former Clemson Tiger had his best season in 2015, when he achieved career highs in receiving yards (1,047) and TD’s (9). However, amongst starting receivers in the NFL that year he finished 22^nd in receiving yards and 14^th in touchdown receptions. Amongst his fellow 2014 draft classmates, he finished 6^th in receiving yards and 5^th in TD’s. This, coming from the first receiver taken in that draft.

 

Despite what the statistics tell you, the true knock on Watkins has been his health.

 

It all started his rookie season when he suffered what was thought to be a rib contusion but ended up being broken ribs in the 2^nd preseason game vs. the Steelers. He was listed on the injury report for the first five games of the regular season due to that injury, where he averaged five receptions for 57 yards, with only one 100-yard performance. In October, he suffered a groin injury, then a hip injury in November.

 

In 2015 he underwent off-season hip surgery and sat out the final three pre-season games with glute soreness. He found himself back on the injury report at the end of September with a calf injury and then on October 18^th when he suffered a sprained ankle vs. Cincinnati which cost him a game and hampered him the rest of the campaign.

The 2016 off season kicked off with a broken foot in the spring, which limited Watkins all season to only eight games played; totaling 28 receptions for 430 yards and two touchdowns.

 

The Bills had a scare last week when Watkins limped off the field into a training tent favoring his foot. Although the injury ended up being nothing serious, I’m sure the collective breath being held was the final straw for Beane and Company to move the oft-injured star.

 

In trading Watkins, the Bills received cornerback EJ Gaines and a second-round draft pick. Gaines himself has had a rocky career thus far. After being named the Rams 2014 Secret Superstar by Pro Football Focus his rookie year, he missed all of 2015 with a Lisfranc foot injury. Gaines struggled in 2016 while recovering from the injury, which saw him lose his starting role while earning a 37 grade from Pro Football Focus, ranking him 105 out of 110 qualifying cornerbacks.

 

Both players are in the final year of their deals. Both players must greatly exceed their career highs to be re-signed or even franchised by their respective teams. Although the Rams may roll the dice on Watkins if he does have a big year to save face after losing a draft pick, the Bills are under no such pressure.

 

Trading Watkins was a smart business decision. After three injury-plagued seasons, Beane knew he was sitting on a ticking time bomb with Watkins foot. Another injury might force another surgery, which could all but end Watkins season at any point in time. With one eye on the future, and a zero chance of re-signing an injury-prone player to a huge extension or even a franchise tag, Beane wanted to ensure he received SOMETHING for Watkins, which came in the form of a 2^nd round draft pick.

The Bills then made up for the loss of Watkins by obtaining Jordan Matthews from the Philadelphia Eagles along with a third-round draft pick for starting cornerback Ronald Darby. Drafted the same year as Watkins, Pro Football Focus has Matthews with more slot receiving yards over the last three seasons than Randall Cobb, Jarvis Landry, and Doug Baldwin.

Head Coach Sean McDermott and Eagles DC Jim Schwartz both run zone-heavy coverage, which Pro Football Focus graded Darby with a better passer rating in zone (85.2) than in man (123.2), which explains Darby’s struggle in Ryan’s’ heavy man defense last season. Playing each to their strengths, this seems to be a win/win for both the Bills and Eagles.

 

Although Darby looked to be a promising talent, Beane and McDermott have their eye on the bigger prize, which is the 2018 NFL Draft. Most prognosticators have pegged next April as the most talented QB draft in years. Unlike 2013, when former GM Doug Whaley chose the weakest QB draft class to fill the Bills franchise QB role, this regime seems to have their timing on point.

 

Last week’s trades landed the Bills some serious draft collateral. This from ESPN.COM’s article on Winners and Losers from the trades:

 

“As projected by FPI and using Stuart's chart, the Bills trading their sixth-round pick for Los Angeles' second-rounder and Philadelphia's third-round pick to trade the Rams pick and Eagles pick for pick 190 is roughly the equivalent of acquiring the 16th overall pick in a typical draft (17.1 points, closest to value of 16th pick, 16.9 points). That gives the Bills what essentially amounts to three first-round picks in the 2018 draft”

 

You only have to ask the beat writers who cover the team that Tyrod Taylor hasn’t looked like the answer this pre-season. Although I have been a big proponent of Taylor, it’s evident that his game isn’t at an elite level. Even if he does reach the same numbers he achieved in 2016, that would only make the Bills Offense a marginal playoff team. A team that, with a solid defense, would have to spend each season as a fringe playoff contender good for a wild card appearance or maybe a wild card win; rather than a team that is expected to compete for a Super Bowl every season.

 

At some point, for this team to achieve greatness, you must blow up the current model. Would you rather that happen now, or in year two or three of the regime, after we’ve MAYBE reached a wild card game, and at a time when the crop of QB’s coming out of college may not be at next spring’s level?

 

Yes, I know, it’s GM taboo to trade your starting WR and CB at the same time. In fairness, Darby has only been in the league for two seasons, so any struggles he has had could be contributed to that. But he regressed last year from his rookie season, which is never a good sign (See Kiko Alonso). With Watkins, the Bills passing game was never feared. The fact that he missed so many games while playing others hurt contributed to that. The new Bills Brass wasn’t in the position to risk that this season and lose him with nothing in return.

 

I still believe that even with the trades the Bills will be competitive. Sometimes it’s more about heart and system than it is about talent. (See Ted Nolan). McDermott has both, with a healthy topping of smarts.

 

As for the former Panther AGM, his clout on One Bills Drive seems to be growing by the day. Long gone is the “One Voice” moniker that Terry Pegula had Sean McDermott roll out to keep the press away from Whaley, who made public speaking look like a giraffe on ice skates. Even McDermott seemed caught off guard when told of the news after Friday’s pre-season game about the trade offers. That shows there is no buddy system in the building. The head coach is doing his job, as is the GM.

 

Beane has assembled a team of former GM’s and NFL Executives to fill lesser roles, yet bring their league experience and contacts to the table. There are many reasons why someone can be fired from their job, but it’s their experience and what they have learned from that failure that you cannot take away from them.

 

December 28, 2016 marked the 20^th anniversary of the last game played in a Bills uniform by Jim Kelly. Since then, the Bills have been through a plethora of QB’s that everyone knows, and would be a waste of time to list. It’s time that this franchise gets serious and makes a run at obtaining an elite one. Beane obviously has faith in his talent evaluators, and choosing the strongest draft class in years is perfect timing.

 

The Bills currently have enough currency to trade up or down anyway they choose. I expect that currency to grow as it’s apparent no player is off limits, and with the addition of a 3^rd round pick if the Bills cut some FA’s, I see that coming down the pike as well.

 

Two first round picks, two second round picks, and three third round picks. Sounds like a winning lottery ticket to me.

 

As a fan, you either have faith in Beane’s talent evaluating ability or you don’t. You either buy into the Bills desire to change the course and culture of this franchise from a fringe contender to Super Bowl contender, or you don’t. You either go all in for a championship mentality or play it safe in hopes that MAYBE this will be the year we will finally play a post season game.

 

Not win one, just play in one.

 

I’ve grown tired of all the references to the 90’s Super Bowl era. It’s time the Bills created some new championship memories. It’s time the Bills go all in to bring a serious Super Bowl contender to Buffalo.

 

In Beane and McDermott I trust. That’s not a bad thing.

Cliff notes version?

[Seasons1992]

One of the best thought-out posts I've seen here since joining a few years back. Bravo.

[MarlinTheMagician]

More or less agree, but I don't think the team is necessarily less competitive right now. As was explored in another post, I like the 2017 receivers as a group much more than the 2016 group. Darby was not a plus last year, IMHO. And we got the picks.

[cba fan]

Big problem for Bills is historically they can not, or will not, sign the rookies to 2nd contracts. Even good rookies.

 

This sets up a mass exodus when the 10 or 20 draft picks(or # they end up w after trading everyone this yr) are all on same page, contract yr wise, after all these picks are used in 2018.

[JMF2006]

One of the best thought-out posts I've seen here since joining a few years back. Bravo.

 

I think this was a cut and paste job,look at all the highlighted links

Big problem for Bills is historically they can not, or will not, sign the rookies to 2nd contracts. Even good rookies.

 

This sets up a mass exodus when the 10 or 20 draft picks(or # they end up w after trading everyone this yr) are all on same page, contract yr wise, after all these picks are used in 2018.

 

If you draft the right guys have the right coach and system and actually have a few winning seasons you would be surprised at how many guys would want to stay.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Cliff notes version?

 

My understanding of the post:

-The Bills were right to trade Sammy Watkins at a fire-sale price because he is injury prone and he headed for the tent with a foot injury in training camp, scaring everyone. Better to get something for him

-The Bills were right to trade Darby because he's better at zone than man (I'm just reporting what it said), which is why he would do better in Schwartz zone-heavy system. McWrestler also runs zone-heavy systems but it's troubling that Darby fell off last year.

-The Bills were right to trade both players because the draft picks they got amount to an additional 1st round pick according to "Stuart's chart" which will help them land Magical Franchise Man QB.

-The Bills will still be competitive without their starting WR and CB because they will have heart and heart > talent

-Ends with dichotomy about either you trust and have faith in McDermott and Beane or you don't - evidently withholding judgement until we see some results or liking some moves and disliking others aren't options

Big problem for Bills is historically they can not, or will not, sign the rookies to 2nd contracts. Even good rookies.

 

This sets up a mass exodus when the 10 or 20 draft picks(or # they end up w after trading everyone this yr) are all on same page, contract yr wise, after all these picks are used in 2018.

 

I believe the thinking is they will ball up all those picks into one giant wad and trade up for a QB, so the "mass exodus" thing from all the picks will be our trade partner's problem

[Chandler#81]

 

Not allowed to coin text without acknowledging actual author and/or using quotations marks.