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One big, dirty, stat.


#34fan

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Transplant - this is off topic but I think you'd enjoy this Chris Trapasso article:

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/6/19/15829060/buffalo-bills-tyrod-taylor-lesean-mccoy-highest-first-down-conversion-rate-after-sack-in-2016

 

Didn't feel like making a whole thread for it which is probably the right call.

 

So I think all this stuff is worth a look. It's pretty darn interesting.

 

So the Bills had 46 sacks, but Taylor was sacked 42 times. EJ was sacked 3 times and Jones was sacked once. The offense converted one of those sacks on EJ for a 1st down.

 

So, Taylor's offense was 12/42 (still 28.6%) in converting 1st downs for a sack. But 16 of his 42 sacks were on 3rd down, which are plays I think it'd be hard to call "drive-killers" in the manner some people use that phrase.

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It's certainly not an unfair assessment - to go all double negative. I find it interesting to look deeper at the stats behind this quote :

 

"Now that said, the numbers prove that since Taylor became the starter ahead of the 2015 season, Buffalo’s overall offensive production has increased. To go from 26th in scoring in 2014 to 11th and 10th the last two seasons isn’t an accident."

 

Restrict yourself to the games with Taylor the QB & Anthony Lynn the OC, and Buffalo's scoring ranked even higher. The Bills are then tied for 4th, sharing the spot with Green Bay. Kinda makes you wonder what Buffalo's offense could be with a healthy set of receivers - perhaps a slight improvement at Right Tackle - maybe a dash of stability in the coaching department. Even the most sour Bills fan might develop a sunny disposition then!

So which 3 games did you randomly pick to take away from every other team in the league for this comparison?

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So which 3 games did you randomly pick to take away from every other team in the league for this comparison?

 

It doesn't need to be random at all. You could limit it to the two categories in question : (1) Games where the starting quarterback didn't play, or (2) Games prior to a successful coaching change. Apples to apples; oranges to oranges. Of those two, I'm betting the first would be more handy to your goal of taking Taylor down a peg. For instance, did Dallas score less because of Dak? That might bump Buffalo a notch. Oakland's case almost assuredly would. So maybe the Bills would come in around 6th after the formulation was scientifically considered. Of course you could demand we broaden it to every kind of negative factor - a quarterback's receivers out or injured being the most obvious example.

Nah; you probably wouldn't wanna go there! That would sure give Cincinnati and Andy Dalton a boost though......

Edited by grb
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So which 3 games did you randomly pick to take away from every other team in the league for this comparison?

Why do you need to randomly take away from other teams if you're doing it on a per game basis? If there are other teams that had similar changes in offensive play callers that'd make sense comparatively, but who are those teams?

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We got to 7 wins last year with that big time run game. What will get us to the 10-12 win mark next year? The defense stopping 200 yard rushers and getting into the 10 overall in yards and points against.

 

 

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We got to 7 wins last year with that big time run game. What will get us to the 10-12 win mark next year? The defense stopping 200 yard rushers and getting into the 10 overall in yards and points against.

 

 

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We also got to 7 wins with the 49ers, Browns. Jags and Rams scheduled gifts.

 

Shoutout to the Bengals kicker too, we have a lot of work to do.

Edited by Maury Ballstein
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Why do you need to randomly take away from other teams if you're doing it on a per game basis? If there are other teams that had similar changes in offensive play callers that'd make sense comparatively, but who are those teams?

 

It boils down to this : After Lynn replaced Roman as OC, the Taylor-led Bills scored points at the 4th highest rate in the NFL, using the 2016 team scoring numbers as a benchmark. Of course Old School can have dozens of objections and qualifications to that fact, no doubt every single one legit. But the fact remains promising nonetheless - suggesting the team has a strong offensive foundation. If the new regime builds on what worked last year; if a good set of receivers emerge and stay healthy; if Taylor is a bit more consistent - then Buffalo will have a very potent offense. At which point the team's ceiling will be set by the defense - and that has to be significantly better, right?

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So I think all this stuff is worth a look. It's pretty darn interesting.

 

.

Tyrod plays well after you knock some sense into him?... Great!.... Kick him in the nuts once every down, and let's run the K-gun!

Edited by #34fan
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It boils down to this : After Lynn replaced Roman as OC, the Taylor-led Bills scored points at the 4th highest rate in the NFL, using the 2016 team scoring numbers as a benchmark. Of course Old School can have dozens of objections and qualifications to that fact, no doubt every single one legit. But the fact remains promising nonetheless - suggesting the team has a strong offensive foundation. If the new regime builds on what worked last year; if a good set of receivers emerge and stay healthy; if Taylor is a bit more consistent - then Buffalo will have a very potent offense. At which point the team's ceiling will be set by the defense - and that has to be significantly better, right?

The offense was a lot more efficient with Taylor/Lynn, too. Buffalo's 3 & out % and TOP (both areas of huge complaint for some) both go from bottom of the barrel to middle of the pack if you're only looking at the Taylor/Lynn combo.

Tyrod plays well after you knock some sense into him?... Great!.... Kick him in the nuts once every down, and let's run the K-gun!

You mad, brah? Edited by transplantbillsfan
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The offense was a lot more efficient with Taylor/Lynn, too. Buffalo's 3 & out % and TOP (both areas of huge complaint for some) both go from bottom of the barrel to middle of the pack if you're only looking at the Taylor/Lynn combo

.

You mad, brah?

 

:beer:

 

No.. But I am bored to tears by your nothing stat.... Can you draw any worthwhile conclusions? Perhaps we should just let 'em sack Taylor to move the chains.... :lol:

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ANY statement some dim-with troll gets a hold of can be inflammatory... if you're offended by TT being called "tightwad", it might be time to change maxi-pads...

 

OR, simply try not posting on "heavy-flow" days.

 

:lol: Haaaaa! NO WAY!

 

How long have you been biting your lip on this thread?... -Good to hear from you! FYI..Smith to Kaufmann would have been a f*%$ing phenomenon!

 

Tyrod plays well after you knock some sense into him?... Great!.... Kick him in the nuts once every down, and let's run the K-gun!

 

 

nate, you sure have made this thread interesting with these antics.

Edited by DaBillsFanSince1973
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We also got to 7 wins with the 49ers, Browns. Jags and Rams scheduled gifts.

 

Shoutout to the Bengals kicker too, we have a lot of work to do.

Beat the Cardinals in there. last Miami game should have been a win. last jets game would have been if TT had played.That last game was a throw away game.Under the Pegulas, this is an average roster as a whole, thus the 8-8 average in wins. The Bills are 24-24 since the Pegulas purchased the team........How about Miami shoutout to our ex kicker, who missed the FG in OT. See, this works both ways, even if you don't want it to.

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We also got to 7 wins with the 49ers, Browns. Jags and Rams scheduled gifts.

Shoutout to the Bengals kicker too, we have a lot of work to do.

 

 

Beat the Cardinals in there. last Miami game should have been a win. last jets game would have been if TT had played.That last game was a throw away game.Under the Pegulas, this is an average roster as a whole, thus the 8-8 average in wins. The Bills are 24-24 since the Pegulas purchased the team........How about Miami shoutout to our ex kicker, who missed the FG in OT. See, this works both ways, even if you don't want it to.

 

Yup. Average team but poor coaching lost is a few games where teams ran all over us. The idea is now we have better coaching and we get the edge to come out on top in those Miami and jets games. 4 wins out of 6 in division. Then can you 6-4 and make the playoffs outside division?

 

 

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Yup. Average team but poor coaching lost is a few games where teams ran all over us. The idea is now we have better coaching and we get the edge to come out on top in those Miami and jets games. 4 wins out of 6 in division. Then can you 6-4 and make the playoffs outside division? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We win those two Miami games, beat the jets last game, the Bills make the playoffs, not Miami.

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Yup. Average team but poor coaching lost is a few games where teams ran all over us. The idea is now we have better coaching and we get the edge to come out on top in those Miami and jets games. 4 wins out of 6 in division. Then can you 6-4 and make the playoffs outside division? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

We win those two Miami games, beat the jets last game, the Bills make the playoffs, not Miami.

Truth.

 

 

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We win those two Miami games, beat the jets last game, the Bills make the playoffs, not Miami.

 

"If" Too bad kiko and Mario pantsed us.

 

More like jay ajai and his 500 yards of offense himself

 

 

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Keep saying that... over and over and over. You are that broken record.

 

The offense was not the reason the second Miami game. Sorry.

 

It wasn't? They had every opportunity at the start of OT to score. They failed to score. Had they scored, you would not have to blame the defense. That in and of itself is one-big-dirty-stat

 

Occam's Razor The simplest explanation is usually the truth.

Edited by ShadyBillsFan
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Keep saying that... over and over and over. You are that broken record.

 

It wasn't? They had every opportunity at the start of OT to score. They failed to score. Had they scored, you would not have to blame the defense. That in and of itself is one-big-dirty-stat

 

Occam's Razor The simplest explanation is usually the truth.

The game was won with a minute left. Who's to blame over that final minute? The offense got the ball, in OT to Miami's 17. That horrible reverse play with Bush and another missed FG by the ex kicker. In this particular game, a non biased fan would put the loss on the defense and ST. Because that is where it belongs.

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Why is it so hard to grasp the simple answer?

 

The Bills failed to score on the first (10 play) drive, the defense held the Fins on their first (5 play) drive, the Bills failed to score on their second (8 play) drive.

 

Score and it is GAME OVER MAN! GAME OVER!

The game was over with a minute left. Again, why no blame on the units responsible for that last minute? Again Carpenter missed another FG in OT when the offense moved the ball to Miami's 17. And TT did not call that horrible reverse to Bush.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/patriots/2016/12/rex_ryans_defense_to_blame_as_bills_eliminated_in_loss_to_miami

"ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Rex Ryan arrived in Buffalo vowing the build the Bills into a bully.

Some two years later, Ryan's prized defense is proving to be a pushover, opening questions about his job security.

Ryan was placed in a position of having to defend his reputation and future once again on Saturday after Buffalo (7-8) was eliminated from playoff contention in a 34-31 overtime loss to the Miami Dolphins. The Bills surrendered more than 200 yards rushing for the third time this season, and second in two months to Jay Ajayi."

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lol it's amazing guys will not speak ill of the defense last year! So what they allowed 3 200 yard rushers! Tyrod should have stopped him! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The main reason we missed the playoffs in 2016 was the defense. TT is not elite or a HOF type QB, but with a better defense, the Bills would have made the WC. TT is good enough until better is found. The formula-A QB that can manage a game with few turnovers, a strong running game, and a strong defense. The defense was the part of the formula that failed the most.

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More attempts from a more confident passer might have meant even more TD's... Why is that so hard for you to comprehend?... If we were 14th or 15th in attempts we could have very well won more games... TT pulled the ball down and hauled-azz on many occasions where he could have thrown downfield.... Are we still denying this after last season?

 

Every time someone speaks the truth they get attacked by TT cabana-boys defending their master... What could anyone possibly have against this stat being improved?... smh...

I believe the correct term is TT 'cabana boy punchers'

 

What folks might have against improving the stat is that throwing more doesn't equal winning more.

Edited by Over 28 years of fanhood
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The main reason we missed the playoffs in 2016 was the defense. TT is not elite or a HOF type QB, but with a better defense, the Bills would have made the WC. TT is good enough until better is found. The formula-A QB that can manage a game with few turnovers, a strong running game, and a strong defense. The defense was the part of the formula that failed the most.

This guy gets it.

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lol it's amazing guys will not speak ill of the defense last year! So what they allowed 3 200 yard rushers! Tyrod should have stopped him! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I hope you were not referring to me.

 

Rex forked up the Defense, but again lets not pretend a GOOD offense can't overcome a bad defense.

 

Thanks for your input. I'm done here for a while.

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I hope you were not referring to me.

 

Rex forked up the Defense, but again lets not pretend a GOOD offense can't overcome a bad defense.

 

Thanks for your input. I'm done here for a while.

Let's not pretend that you don't have an agenda going on here. It would seem less silly if you admitted that the second Miami game was on the defense and ST. or do you expect 31 points, the lead, and only a minute left not a "good offense".

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Why is it so hard to grasp the simple answer?

 

The Bills failed to score on the first (10 play) drive, the defense held the Fins on their first (5 play) drive, the Bills failed to score on their second (8 play) drive.

 

Score and it is GAME OVER MAN! GAME OVER!

So you hold Drew Brees and the Saints offense responsible for all their losses? I mean you understand every offense gets chances to score right? It's usually accepted that offenses can't always score and eventually the defense needs to make some critical stops. Maybe you have a different way of seeing things.

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his problem is that he goes too far in defending TT and will not blame the pisspoor passing game.

 

TT is not elite or a HOF. What more should one expect but to miss the playoffs?

Miami was the WC and they have no where near a HOF or elite QB.

his problem is that he goes too far in defending TT and will not blame the pisspoor passing game.

 

TT is not elite or a HOF. What more should one expect but to miss the playoffs?

You go to far with this infatuation of hate, along with a few others, against TT, who was the least of the Bills problems in 2016. I'd put up poor game day coaching, injuries, the ST and the defense higher on the list of problems.

So you hold Drew Brees and the Saints offense responsible for all their losses? I mean you understand every offense gets chances to score right? It's usually accepted that offenses can't always score and eventually the defense needs to make some critical stops. Maybe you have a different way of seeing things.

One key stat that is not mentioned enough is turnovers. The offense was excellent at not turning the ball over, and the defense didn't get nearly enough of them in a 15 game span. That last game was meaningless as the team gave up.

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Let's not pretend that you don't have an agenda going on here. It would seem less silly if you admitted that the second Miami game was on the defense and ST. or do you expect 31 points, the lead, and only a minute left not a "good offense".

It's as silly as blaming the defense for the Baltimore game. It's possible to admit the offense and Tyrod had their problems last year without going crazy in the other direction and blaming them for a game where they produced over 500 total yards.

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It's as silly as blaming the defense for the Baltimore game. It's possible to admit the offense and Tyrod had their problems last year without going crazy in the other direction and blaming them for a game where they produced over 500 total yards.

I agree. Most do. It's the "few" who don't.

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