hondo in seattle Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 (edited) Excellent post. The NFL is too complex and dynamic to model without a high bias. The bias is his opinion wrapped in pseudo stats. Yes, sir. We're in agreement. Scientists have spent millions of dollars building climatological models to predict the weather. These models have a fair degree of accuracy when looking ahead a couple days. Beyond that, they're highly fallible. There are just too many variables in a complex, dynamic system. ESPN has spent maybe a couple grand trying to model another complex system with an incredible number of variables. It's not going to be any more accurate than the long-range weather forecast. Edited June 3, 2017 by hondo in seattle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 Yes, sir. We're in agreement. Scientists have spent millions of dollars building climatological models to predict the weather. These models have a fair degree of accuracy when looking ahead a couple days. Beyond that, they're highly fallible. There are just too many variables in a complex, dynamic system. ESPN has spent maybe a couple grand trying to model another complex system with an incredible number of variables. It's not going to be any more accurate than the long-range weather forecast. amen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaCrispy Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 so, you're saying there's a chance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 After 7 game im my opinion I think we are actually having hope for the season Hope? Yes, because by week 7, Tyrod will be benched and we'll see what Peterman is all about. So the hope won't be for the season. It will be for the future - of which Tyrod Taylor is no part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Gun Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 you don't do a good job at trolling either... ahh yes the old trolling accusations, you're a winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaCrispy Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 Hope? Yes, because by week 7, Tyrod will be benched and we'll see what Peterman is all about. So the hope won't be for the season. It will be for the future - of which Tyrod Taylor is no part. not to mention we still have to play NE twice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 Hondo, you are demanding sports predictions meet some exact science? Isn't watching sports enough of a waste of time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 Hope? Yes, because by week 7, Tyrod will be benched and we'll see what Peterman is all about. So the hope won't be for the season. It will be for the future - of which Tyrod Taylor is no part. this is awesome. I always look forward to these types of predictions and I bet this one comes to fruition just as this story telling Nostradamus states it. just watch and see folks. starting QB will be benched by week 7 and the 5th round scrub will take the reins and show he is the future tom brady, leading the buffalo bills to the promise land. book it dano Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 this is awesome. I always look forward to these types of predictions and I bet this one comes to fruition just as this story telling Nostradamus states it. just watch and see folks. starting QB will be benched by week 7 and the 5th round scrub will take the reins and show he is the future tom brady, leading the buffalo bills to the promise land. book it dano It's odd how you interpreted what I wrote; somehow deriving that I predicted that Peterman was going to be one of the best QBs in the history of the league. Why don't you re-read, then back down from your painfully inaccurate assessment of what I wrote. Try to use some punctuation and the shift key (that makes the letters BIG), too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 (edited) I just wonder if the most "objective" observers actually follow the team enough to give a informed opinion.....seriously Assuming he has a model, he would not need to follow any one team. In fact that's pretty much the entire point of having a model. He would apply the model to all the teams and see where they fall without needing to be an expert on all 32 teams. Edited June 3, 2017 by CodeMonkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 It's odd how you interpreted what I wrote; somehow deriving that I predicted that Peterman was going to be one of the best QBs in the history of the league. Why don't you re-read, then back down from your painfully inaccurate assessment of what I wrote. Try to use some punctuation and the shift key (that makes the letters BIG), too. no, I was not deriving that you predicted he would be. my first sentence was contributed to your prediction of "Hope? Yes, because by week 7, Tyrod will be benched and we'll see what Peterman is all about" the second sentence, of a sarcastic nature, was my prediction of the 5th round savior peterman. oh, and thanks for the advice on how I should post with punctuation's and using the shift key and all. my day would not of been complete had you not passed that on, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 no, I was not deriving that you predicted he would be. my first sentence was contributed to your prediction of "Hope? Yes, because by week 7, Tyrod will be benched and we'll see what Peterman is all about" the second sentence, of a sarcastic nature, was my prediction of the 5th round savior peterman. oh, and thanks for the advice on how I should post with punctuation's and using the shift key and all. my day would not of been complete had you not passed that on, thanks. I will pray for you. Have a blessed day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 (edited) That 92% for Patriots to win the divsion is disgusting but accurate. 14% chance for making the playoffs for us also seems about right. Edited June 3, 2017 by Sammy Watkins' Rib Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 (edited) Teams 9 Panthers through 26 Bills, and I might even add 8 KC, you could throw names in a hat and have as good a chance of being as accurate. I mean god the power ratings are 2 pts difference. IMO Edited June 3, 2017 by horned dogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 After 7 game im my opinion I think we are actually having hope for the season Two teams you say are not good or were awful last year both finsihed 9-7. What does that make us? We could easily lose to the Bucs or Broncos. God help us if we lose to the Jets week 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 I will pray for you. Have a blessed day. not necessary really, at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 (edited) ....wonder what a three year window of pre-season % prognostications versus who actually DID make it would look like.....beyond my pay grade......... Edited June 3, 2017 by OldTimeAFLGuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vincec Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 without seeing the formula from which these rankings came from the initial elephant in the room to me, in the afc, is the ravens.... 5th best shot? really? seems to me they've been trending downward since 2012. i mean, i remember thinking when they were 3-0 last year that they were one of the least impressive 3-0 teams ive seen in a long while and then they only got worse. and color me a homer, but werent we within a game of the playoffs all the way into week 16? and yet the bills are ranked that low? debatable i'd say. I'm scratching my head at that one too. So there's a chance? Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 Hondo, you are demanding sports predictions meet some exact science? Isn't watching sports enough of a waste of time? Well, we all need entertainment. Though it's questionable how entertaining it is to be a Bills fan watching our team lose year after year. I used to be a sports fan in general. I'm not anymore. Pretty much the only sports I watch any more is Buffalo Bills football. I try to spend my life more productively and meaningfully than just planting myself in front of a TV. But when the Bills lose an important game, I'm usually pretty useless the rest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 Hope? Yes, because by week 7, Tyrod will be benched and we'll see what Peterman is all about. So the hope won't be for the season. It will be for the future - of which Tyrod Taylor is no part. You are entitled to your opinion.... Two teams you say are not good or were awful last year both finsihed 9-7. What does that make us? We could easily lose to the Bucs or Broncos. God help us if we lose to the Jets week 1. Every year is a new year......we could also win those games against the bucs and broncos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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