Kyle Posey: Debunking the Tyrod Taylor Myth

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

And so Why did Lynn take them out?

Because we had a cluster of receivers who can't execute those concepts...

 

Better question - why doesn't roman include screens, bubbles, or swing passes in his offense? Why do we have 90% shotgun/pistol snap formations?

[papazoid]

So not one answer I see.

 

Let me ask this.

 

You just picked up Taylors option. Then you good if Bills take a QB at 10 or trade up for one?

there isn't a QB with a first round grade in this upcoming draft.

 

if you pick up TT's option, go RT in 1st (improves run & pass). draft a QB on day 2 to replace EJ.

[BuffaloHokie13]

And so Why did Lynn take them out?

 

Why no, if they ifentified a franchise QB then why no trade up?

Most evaluators I know either have 1 QB with a fringe 1st round grade, or no QB's with a 1st round grade. If you want to argue that there's a hypothetical Luck/Cam/Winston then maybe. But I'm generally opposed to trading up regardless.

[Kelly the Dog]

Because we had a cluster of receivers who can't execute those concepts...

 

Better question - why doesn't roman include screens, bubbles, or swing passes in his offense? Why do we have 90% shotgun/pistol snap formations?

In 2015, OBJ caught 21 passes at or behind the LOS. Read: Bubble screen. Watkins caught 3-4.

[BaaadThingsMan]

Lol. No seriously. I want to hear why the scenario i proposed is NOT reasonable.

the naysayers will say Whaley/The Pegulas are incapable of doing what you laid out because they haven't fixed the qb situation in years blah blah but it does make good sense and is along the lines of my thinking as well.

[MAJBobby]

wtf does history have to do with it. This year is all that matters! Now, the future. !@#$ history!

i like it all actually

History has alot to do with it. Tells me that this FO will not draft a QB early once the option is picked up. They can prove me wrong but i doubt it

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

there isn't a QB with a first round grade in this upcoming draft.

 

if you pick up TT's option, go RT in 1st (improves run & pass). draft a QB on day 2 to replace EJ.

 

Depends how free agency goes for me... our defense is chock full of holes, and mostly old. I'd like to see a few playmakers drafted on that side of the ball if we can. At least 1 safety, probably a OLB, and even another corner. Rather than our 1st round pick every 3-4 years on corner, i like the corner every year method and hope that you can get some steals.

[MAJBobby]

there isn't a QB with a first round grade in this upcoming draft.

 

if you pick up TT's option, go RT in 1st (improves run & pass). draft a QB on day 2 to replace EJ.

Says who?

Because we had a cluster of receivers who can't execute those concepts...

 

Better question - why doesn't roman include screens, bubbles, or swing passes in his offense? Why do we have 90% shotgun/pistol snap formations?

Got always someone else. Cant be we have a QB that takes forever to release a football because he has to see the Reciever college open

[baskingridgebillsfan]

The tale of two Taylors . 1 Person , like me looks at him and say this his ceiling. He does some things well but he is very limited in the passing game .

Person. Taylor does something well and when he improves on his shortcomings, holding on to the ball , not delivering the ball on time and not using the middle of the field he will be a fine qb. I guess time will tell

[BaaadThingsMan]

History has alot to do with it. Tells me that this FO will not draft a QB early once the option is picked up. They can prove me wrong but i doubt it

This front office. Whaley/Pegula combo specifically. Whats their history?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Says who?

 

Got always someone else. Cant be we have a QB that takes forever to release a football because he has to see the Reciever college open

 

Still - why can't we add some real spread concepts if that's how we want to run the offense? Why not run some screens to the receivers to make the corners play tighter on the line? It helps open up the down field stuff, and forces teams to adjust out of their base coverages.

 

It also allows you to play with tempo, and are easy single read plays. This guys not on the line - throw it to woods. He is on the line? Fake and run. Or change the play at the line really quickly into something else.

Edited January 12, 2017 by dneveu

[papazoid]

Depends how free agency goes for me... our defense is chock full of holes, and mostly old. I'd like to see a few playmakers drafted on that side of the ball if we can. At least 1 safety, probably a OLB, and even another corner. Rather than our 1st round pick every 3-4 years on corner, i like the corner every year method and hope that you can get some steals.

we will be picking up a couple of big name rookies named shaq & ragland on the defensive side.

 

the weakest starter on last years team was RT

[MAJBobby]

This front office. Whaley/Pegula combo specifically. Whats their history?

So far a 2 year mega project

And Passinf on at least one QB they really liked

 

Still - why can't we add some real spread concepts if that's how we want to run the offense? Why not run some screens to the receivers to make the corners play tighter on the line? It helps open up the down field stuff, and forces teams to adjust out of their base coverages.

 

It also allows you to play with tempo, and are easy single read plays. This guys not on the line - throw it to woods. He is on the line? Fake and run. Or change the play at the line really quickly into something else.

I have been calling this for years. Just whoever is the new OC go talk to Dabo and find out how to use Sammy Watkins

[PolishDave]

there isn't a QB with a first round grade in this upcoming draft.

 

if you pick up TT's option, go RT in 1st (improves run & pass). draft a QB on day 2 to replace EJ.

 

Whaley isn't big on offensive linemen. He won't spend a 1st on that. If we are lucky he will spend as high as a second, but I doubt he even does that. The o-line guys will be later round picks if at all I bet.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

we will be picking up a couple of big name rookies named shaq & ragland on the defensive side.

 

the weakest starter on last years team was RT

 

Possibly - but we might be able to upgrade that for cheap. Shaq and ragland are fine, but if we're going to execute a single high cover 3 look... were going to need some safeties that don't suck. And some corner's who thrive in that zone-over coverage.

[BaaadThingsMan]

 

Depends how free agency goes for me... our defense is chock full of holes, and mostly old. I'd like to see a few playmakers drafted on that side of the ball if we can. At least 1 safety, probably a OLB, and even another corner. Rather than our 1st round pick every 3-4 years on corner, i like the corner every year method and hope that you can get some steals.

corner and safety are deep this year. They may be able to get them later in the draft if they don't get Adams or Hooker in the first or second?

So far a 2 year mega project

And Passinf on at least one QB they really liked

 

I have been calling this for years. Just whoever is the new OC go talk to Dabo and find out how to use Sammy Watkins

in college

 

Whaley isn't big on offensive linemen. He won't spend a 1st on that. If we are lucky he will spend as high as a second, but I doubt he even does that. The o-line guys will be later round picks if at all I bet.

or they already have them on the team

[fridge]

In 2015, OBJ caught 21 passes at or behind the LOS. Read: Bubble screen. Watkins caught 3-4.

 

He caught that many? If the over/under was 2, I'm taking the under.

[aristocrat]

Says who?

 

Got always someone else. Cant be we have a QB that takes forever to release a football because he has to see the Reciever college open

 

says alot of scout.s we will see though. and i look at this team and saw 11 wins if we had an nfl defense on the field.

[Bocephuz]

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2016/12/30/kyle-posey-debunking-the-tyrod-taylor-myth/

Based on my all 22 posts this year.. I think TT is "capable" of making good reads and using the middle of the field. He's "capable" of executing a lot of different things. But "capable" is different than consistently demonstrating.

 

He demonstrated progress this year in several areas where he had weakness in 2015 (short hitch routes/ timing routes, throwing on time, using middle of the field, using the TE, red zone). . The problem is.. he only had one performance (week 16 - Miami) where he demonstrated all of these traits on the same day.

For example.. the first NE game showed he was capable of executing a 3 step drop/quick timing passing game.

There were also several games later in the year where he was consistently attempting and completing intermediate/middle throws.

The Seattle game was great example of him improvising.

• He even started utilizing Clay appropriately the last few games

The problem is.. he wasn't able to consistently apply these different traits in certain game situations where they were most needed. Here are my write-ups from week 7 on. You will note that in most games TT demonstrated progression in areas. .. but there was always "one thing missing".. and the problem is that "one thing" varied from week to week

 

_ ___

49ers week 7 - (deep ball missing) - TYROD HAS "ALMOST" COMPLETE GAME - Tyrod completed many different types of throws today. His quick timing game was solid.. he scrambled and made throws on the run.. and he had a few plays where he side stepped pressure, stepped up into the pocket and delivered. The one throw missing (which has been missing for a few weeks now) is the deep sideline "Go" route that he is usually so good at throwing. He attempted one today in the first half to Goodwin .. but unfortunately the O Line broke down on that play forcing an underthrow.

 

Patriots week 8 - (deep ball/ red zone bad) -TYROD MISSES DEEP/ STRUGGLES THROWING TO RED ZONE- Not all of the blame can be put on TT for this one (O Line melted down in Q4, Receivers had bad drops) however... a fair amount of blame should go his way. His biggest misses were 2 deep balls to Powell in q3.. in both cases he didn't really give Powell a chance to catch the ball. And in both cases.. TT had a relatively clean pocket to throw from

.

Seahawks week 9 - (not throwing into tight windows) - TYROD VERY CAREFUL/ VERY ELUSIVE/ VERY EFFECTIVE - When I watched this game in real time I was a bit concerned that TT was bailing out of the pocket too early on a lot of plays. After re-watching I only saw one time that he obviously bailed out early. I was also concerned that he was not going through his reads and was doing too much improvising.This was also not the case. As I will show below.. TT displayed several instances where he went through multiple progressions before checking down.. or deciding it was time to scramble and buy more time. Seattle typically had several dbs in a deep shell coverage.. so there were very few opportunities for him to attempt the deep throws he so excels at. For the most part he did an excellent job taking what the D was giving him and attacking the soft spots in what appeared to be mostly zone defense. My only criticism is that he is still a hair late on delivering some throws and he is still not being anticipatory enough. This is splitting hairs a little I realize.. However.. It's clear if you watch Russell Wilson you will see many examples of "throwing" guys open or "throwing into tight windows". Hopefully TT will become confident enough in his WRs to do that at some point in the future. Really.. that is the only thing I can criticize him for in this game. I re-watched the game ending sequence several times to see if TT could have done anything better or if he obviously missed any chances on the last few plays there.. and quite frankly there were no good options for him on that last throw. Can't really pin the failed comeback on TT this time.

 

Week 11 - Bengals (throwing late- bad in red zone) - TYROD MISSES EARLY OPPORTUNITIES.. BAD IN RED ZONE. TT was sloppy today.. especially in the red zone (the really bad interception on a forced throw to Goodwin... also another bad out route in the red zone that could have gone for a pick six if the db didn't drop it). He didn't really have any "wow" throws like he did in Seattle. This sloppiness is very much out of character for him. What's worse is that the balls that were forced were late/ desperate throws. I can live with interceptions if they come from being aggressive and throwing into tight windows on time.. but these late un-smart forced throws are completely indefensible.

 

Week 12 - Jags (solid coverage/ not taking chances)- TYROD HOLDING THE BALL.. WHAT REALLY CAUSED IT? - Watching in real time it was maddening to see several plays where the O Line was holding up yet TT was not pulling the trigger on throws. Some of these plays led to sacks. Was it his WRs not getting separation? Was it TT being too conservative? Were some of these coverage sacks?

 

 

In short.. to my eye 3 of the situations where he was patting the ball and not pulling the trigger were legitimate coverage sacks where there were no good options for TT to throw to. Jacksonville rarely blitzed and they were dropping their LBs and Safeties deep on many plays.

 

Week 13 Oak ( miscommunication, errant inaccurate throws) - TYROD - TALE OF TWO HALVES - First of all .. I want to reiterate.. the offensive line did not have a true breakdown in pass protect until halfway through the 3rd quarter.. so again kudos to the O Line. If one is looking to assign blame as to why the passing attack sputtered in the 2nd half.. one would not assign the majority of the blame to the O Line.

 

1st HALF - Tyrod came out and confidently attacked the Oakland D in the 1st half. In general.. he was in rhythm .. hitting his drop and getting the ball out of his hands to his receivers for most of the 1st half. There were several nicely timed anticipatory come back throws. Tyrod also took several chances over the intermediate middle.. completing several tight window throws

 

q1 2:40 - This is an example of TT being aggressive .. trusting his receiver .. and fitting ball into a tight window in the middle of the field.. between 3 defenders. Gillislee also does an excellent job of picking up the blitzer here

 

2nd Half - marred by miscommunication, missed opportunities and inaccurate throws

 

Week 14- Steelers (1st qtr meltdown, rare bad interceptions) - TYROD 1st QUARTER MELTDOWN Of the 7 Unforced Errors TT committed.. 4 of them came in the first quarter. These errors were a big reason the Bills found themselves in a hole they could not dig out of. The first drive was not pretty. John Miller gave up a bad sack on the very first play. TYROD INTERCEPTIONS - I dont have GIFs for these.. but suffice it to say that neither of the interceptions can be attributed to O Line breakdowns. The q1 INT that bounced off of Woods hands due to TT getting the ball to him late when it should have been there right when Woods came out of his break. The INT in the 2nd half was a case of TT misreading the defense and thinking they were in man when they were in zone.

 

TYROD POSITIVES - One nice trend that weve seen over the past few weeks is TT starting to use the middle of the field more. By my count 7 of his 30 pass attempts were targeting the middle of the field. He executed several tight window well timed over the middle passes against the Steelers

 

 

___ __

 

Bottom line.. my point is. It seems like every week TT would demonstrate progress in one area.. but take a step back in another. This is why the decision to pick up the option is so difficult for many. Can we bet on his consistency going forward or not?

Edited January 12, 2017 by Bocephuz

[Kelly the Dog]

 

He caught that many? If the over/under was 2, I'm taking the under.

I was going off a PFF or analytic site's stats. It may have been passes thrown to them not even catches, although 95% of bubble screens are catches. I remember EJ missing badly once on a bubble screen to Watkins.