A quick look at the cap for 2017

[GunnerBill]

This came up at the end of season press conference and I thought was one of the more interesting points raised before the Buffalo media quickly got back to blaming people for things. Where are the Bills really at against the salary cap?

 

The NFL recently informed the teams it expects the cap for 2017 to be $168-172million. Based on a mid range of that estimate and a cap of around $170m (estimated by Over the Cap) the Bills have just under $26m of cap space and 42 players under contract. This number includes Tyrod's $15.9m cap hit and so is on the basis of the Bills taking up the option.

 

A lot is made of all the UFAs and RFAs - but when you look through the list of those there are not many you would expect the Bills to have genuine interest in bringing back. My summary of these is below:

 

Definitely won't be back: Reggie Bush, James Ihedigbo, Percy Harvin, Sergio Brown, Brandon Spikes, Robert Blanton, Jonathan Meeks, Ramon Humber, Dri Archer, IK Enemkpali, EJ Manuel.

 

Unlikely to be back (either because the team doesn't want them or because they are likely too expensive): Lorenzo Alexander, Leger Douzable, Robert Woods, Corey White, Corbin Bryant, Jordan Mills, Colt Anderson, Lerentee McCray, Marquise Goodwin.

 

Possible cheap re-signings: Justin Hunter, Chris Gragg, Brandon Tate, Jerome Felton, Colton Schmidt

 

Possible expensive re-signings: Stephon Gilmore, Zach Brown

 

Likely RFA tenders: Ryan Groy, Mike Gillislee

 

 

So if you start by tendering Groy and Gillislee at the lowest tender and then franchising Gilmore (all of which I think likely happen) that reduces the cap space to around $8.3m and you now have 45 players under contract. Then before you go any further you consider Aaron Williams who very likely retires - saving you about $1.75m against the 2017 cap which puts you back to total cap space of around $10m.

 

Then you turn your attention to the re-signings and I see it as a choice either between bringing back some or all of the cluster of possible cheap re-signings or spending the cash on a $4-5m a year deal for Zach Brown. If the Bills let Zach walk and chose, for example, to bring back Felton, Hunter and Brandon Tate all of whom played pretty significant roles on offense and/or special teams in 2016 you could probably do that for a total spend of around $4m in 2017. Those moves would leave you with around $6m in cap space and 47 players under contract. That is just short of the $6.3m that Over the Cap estimates would be needed to sign our draft picks.

 

Which brings you to possible cuts. I will list these in order of "easiest" to hardest and the impact of making them on cap and roster size. This is cumulative and obviously the Bills could choose to make the hardest cuts but not the easier ones.

 

Dan Carpenter - saving of $2.4m - cap space $8.4m with 46 players under contract.

Patrick Lewis - saving of $1.2m - cap space $9.6m with 45 players under contract.

Marcus Easley - saving of $1m - cap space $10.6m with 44 players under contract.

Corey Graham - saving of $3.75m - cap space $14.4m with 43 players under contract.

Eric Wood - saving of $4.5m (if cut with post 1 June designation) - cap space of $18.9m with 42 players under contract.

Kyle Williams - saving of $6.8m - cap space of $25.7m with 41 players under contract.

 

 

Conclusion

The Bills are tight against the cap without being entirely hamstrung by their position against it. Being able to reach a long term deal with Gilmore that reduces his 2017 hit (even by just a couple of million) would give them greater flexibility as would either letting Gilmore or Tyrod walk. There are enough easy cuts to allow them to have space even with a franchise tagged Gilmore and Tyrod's option taken up to sign their draft class and bring in a couple of dust settle free agents (think RT, S and WR as areas that might benefit from a reasonably priced vet addition). To create enough space to bring in a top end free agent at one of those positions they likely need to make one of the difficult cuts - Corey Graham and Eric Wood would be the ones who appear at greatest risk.

Edited January 4, 2017 by GunnerBill

[Don't stop billievein]

Nice post. Lots of info. I think they Bring Corey Graham back only because we don't have any other competent safeties and even if we draft one the rookie will need some direction from a veteran. It will be interesting to see how Kyle Williams and Eric Wood play out. As far as Gilmore someone will overpay him and he will leave. I don't think the Bills want to pay the Franchise tag to him.

[Chandler#81]

Nice post. Lots of info. I think they Bring Corey Graham back only because we don't have any other competent safeties and even if we draft one the rookie will need some direction from a veteran. It will be interesting to see how Kyle Williams and Eric Wood play out. As far as Gilmore someone will overpay him and he will leave. I don't think the Bills want to pay the Franchise tag to him.

Thanks, OP!

 

I tend to agree with this. Gilmore will likely go. It was hard to evaluate Seymore in that debacle Sunday, but many teams are starved for competent CB play and Gilmore is that. I think Groy has made it tough for the Bills to keep paying Wood that kind of dough. Hopefully, he and Kyle will re-structure. I'd miss Kyle if he retires, but it opens up a lot of cash..

[Luxy312]

Good post by the OP. I'm always looking at numbers like this, but rarely see someone else put pen to paper to analyze them. My single biggest fear with the guys leaving is the defensive line. Our starters may look pretty good on paper. Let's say we do extend Brown, which I agree should be possible. The front 7 looks like this: Lawson, Dareus, Washington, Hughes, Brown, Brown, Ragland. While that looks good on paper, back-ups are paper thin. It almost suggests to me that the Bills should place special effort in trying to keep Kyle around for a couple of years, even if only as a part-time player.

[Kirby Jackson]

Great stuff Gunner!!

[thebandit27]

Nice work Gunner; really solid...I was actually working on this a bit over the weekend.

 

Our plans are close, but not identical. Here's where I'm at:

 

With 43 players under contract, and assuming a cap of $170M, we're a bit more than $28M under the cap now.

 

RFAs

I would tender only Gilislee and Groy--I am looking for an upgrade from Schmidt. Assuming the lowest tender amount is close to $1.8M, that brings us down to approximately $25M.

 

Cheap UFA Re-signings

I'm looking at Hunter, Tate, and Felton. I think these 3 can get done for a total of $4M, which drops the space down to $21M.

 

Allowed to Walk

Manuel, Gragg, Woods, Gilmore, Brown, Ihedigbo, Meeks, Humber, Spikes, Douzable, McCray, White, Blanton, Anderson, Gragg, Goodwin, Harvin, Bush, Mills, Bryant.

 

Expensive UFA Re-signings

Zach Brown - I'd like to get Zach at $5M AAV if possible. Much of his valuation will depend upon the new DC, but supposing it's a guy like Bradley, Zach has added value as a coverage guy with speed.

LorAx - Again, this is going to depend entirely upon the market for his services. I can't remember the last time a 33-year-old burst onto the scene with a double-digit sack season the way he has, so I have no idea how to value that. For the sake of argument, I used Elvis Dumervil's $5.2M AAV as the starting point, so I think it's possible that LorAx comes back for $5M on a one-year "prove it" type deal.

 

The above drop the cap space to $11M with 50 players under contract.

 

Cuts

Aaron Williams (actually, a retirement) - saves $1.775M

Corey Graham - saves $3.775M

Dan Carpenter - saves $2.4M

 

Brings the cap space up to approximately $19M with 47 players under contract.

 

Restructures/Renegotiation

I'm assuming, for the sake of conservatism, that we don't touch Tyrod's deal (and that he stays, obviously).

I'd tack two years onto Eric Wood's deal (call it a total of $8M on the 2-year extension) and slash his base salary for 2017 to $1M (converting the rest to a signing bonus), which gives him an extra $3M+ in cash right now. This would save $2.1M.

 

Now we're up to $21.1M with 47 players under contract. I'll assume $6Mish for draft picks as Over the Cap did, so we're at $15M in space to go shopping.

 

My Plan

- Sign likely cap casualty Antione Bethea from SF. He's a veteran that can still play well in both phases, and brings some much-needed experience to an empty cupboard at safety. At 32 years old, he'd probably take $4M AAV.

- Sign a cap casualty to compete with Seymour on the boundary. A guy like Sam Shields, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Alterraun Vernor, who can still play, but would cost closer to $7M AAV and not count against the compensatory formula.

- Sign a backup QB. Should be able to get this done for a 1-year, $3M deal.

 

Even with no progressive structuring of the contracts, we're now at 50 players under contract (before draft picks and UDFAs) and within $1M of the cap. Holes still remain at safety and WR, but you have to believe you can address those in the draft. I am fully in favor of moving Glenn to RT and letting Kouandjio man the LT spot, so I'm not considering RT an immediate need.

[Manther]

I think we will be able to tell the teams direction with the new HC, TT and Gilmore.

 

IMO we will be gunning for the playoffs. That means we keep TT (depending on the new HC) and franchise Gilmore.

 

I think Wood and Graham can be replaced for less money if we need the cap space.

[BADOLBILZ]

Great work Gunner! Much appreciated

 

You too Bandit!

[Coach Tuesday]

Corey Graham is a corpse - his body his done. I think we can safely cross him off the 53 for next year.

[GG]

 

Restructures/Renegotiation

I'm assuming, for the sake of conservatism, that we don't touch Tyrod's deal (and that he stays, obviously).

I'd tack two years onto Eric Wood's deal (call it a total of $8M on the 2-year extension) and slash his base salary for 2017 to $1M (converting the rest to a signing bonus), which gives him an extra $3M+ in cash right now. This would save $2.1M.

 

Now we're up to $21.1M with 47 players under contract. I'll assume $6Mish for draft picks as Over the Cap did, so we're at $15M in space to go shopping.

 

 

 

I wouldn't rule out restructurings for Clay & Hughes, with remote possibilities of getting cut.

[GunnerBill]

Cheers folks. I just thought this was more interesting than yet more Whaley v Rex v Pegula battle royal talk.

 

I like the look of your plan Bandit. I wasn't attempting to set out a plan as such just to demonstrate what the options look like...... I seem to be in the minority but I think they will tag Gilmore. That then does reduce your initial options to sign 3/4 cheap rotational / depth guys or Zach Brown. I'm not saying that is necessarily what I would do... but I think it is most likely the way the Bills play this. I might be wrong.

[John from Riverside]

Woods is gonna be a tough sell

 

I want Lorax back...the guy is a glue guy

[GunnerBill]

Corey Graham is a corpse - his body his done. I think we can safely cross him off the 53 for next year.

 

I agree Coach. I'd rather make the cap saving and find a vet FA safety to replace him. I know it leaves you with a fair bit of dead cap that you are eating but I think he is done. His instincts are still good but he doesn't get to the spot anymore.

[dave mcbride]

Great stuff here. Agree with GG about Clay/Hughes. Something is up with Hughes. He didn't produce in the latter portion of the season, and there are just too many attitudinal flare-ups regardless of coach. It may be injury, which would explain a lot. But he didn't play remotely close to his salary this season.

[thebandit27]

 

I wouldn't rule out restructurings for Clay & Hughes, with remote possibilities of getting cut.

 

Hughes' contract hasn't flipped yet, so I don't think we can restructure him--you're basically pushing the flipping point out 2 more years, which is, IMO, ill-advised.

 

Clay's contract is just as tough.

 

Cheers folks. I just thought this was more interesting than yet more Whaley v Rex v Pegula battle royal talk.

 

I like the look of your plan Bandit. I wasn't attempting to set out a plan as such just to demonstrate what the options look like...... I seem to be in the minority but I think they will tag Gilmore. That then does reduce your initial options to sign 3/4 cheap rotational / depth guys or Zach Brown. I'm not saying that is necessarily what I would do... but I think it is most likely the way the Bills play this. I might be wrong.

 

Sure, I gotcha.

 

I think Gilmore's fate will largely be dependent upon the next coach. If it's a guy that plays a LOT of man, then it makes sense to keep him. I'm more of the opinion that they'll likely want quantity over a high-priced corner. And I really, really like Gilmore as a player.

[GunnerBill]

I'd love to find a way to renegotiate that Clay contract. Urgh. I HATE that contract. Worse than the Shady and Dareus deals put together IMO.

[GG]

 

Hughes' contract hasn't flipped yet, so I don't think we can restructure him--you're basically pushing the flipping point out 2 more years, which is, IMO, ill-advised.

 

Clay's contract is just as tough.

 

 

Sure, I gotcha.

 

I think Gilmore's fate will largely be dependent upon the next coach. If it's a guy that plays a LOT of man, then it makes sense to keep him. I'm more of the opinion that they'll likely want quantity over a high-priced corner. And I really, really like Gilmore as a player.

 

Check Hughes's 2017 numbers - it flips. Post June 1 cut cap hit is $2.9 million, vs $10.45 million regular cap hit. Clay is almost at break-even

[BADOLBILZ]

Great stuff here. Agree with GG about Clay/Hughes. Something is up with Hughes. He didn't produce in the latter portion of the season, and there are just too many attitudinal flare-ups regardless of coach. It may be injury, which would explain a lot. But he didn't play remotely close to his salary this season.

 

 

Eric Wood was on WGR for his show Monday after the Whaley presser and he and Bulldog were discussing the whole "fall asleep/show up late for meetings" thing and Wood said something like it's a problem if that guy is the one going offsides on Sundays.

 

Well.......we all know the only guy who regularly goes offsides now don't we?

 

I think it was unintentional but an indicator that maybe the Hughes issues extend beyond the hamstring he says he hurt in October and the on-field issues.

 

Edge rusher is a need.

[dave mcbride]

 

 

Eric Wood was on WGR for his show Monday after the Whaley presser and he and Bulldog were discussing the whole "fall asleep/show up late for meetings" thing and Wood said something like it's a problem if that guy is the one going offsides on Sundays.

 

Well.......we all know the only guy who regularly goes offsides now don't we?

 

I think it was unintentional but an indicator that maybe the Hughes issues extend beyond the hamstring he says he hurt in October and the on-field issues.

 

Edge rusher is a need.

Good stuff - thanks. Not a shock if he's talking about him. Hughes is one of those borderline psychopath guys who can only succeed in a venue like the NFL.

[Mark80]

Which brings you to possible cuts. I will list these in order of "easiest" to hardest and the impact of making them on cap and roster size. This is cumulative and obviously the Bills could choose to make the hardest cuts but not the easier ones.

 

Dan Carpenter - saving of $2.4m - cap space $8.4m with 46 players under contract.

Patrick Lewis - saving of $1.2m - cap space $9.6m with 45 players under contract.

Marcus Easley - saving of $1m - cap space $10.6m with 44 players under contract.

Corey Graham - saving of $3.75m - cap space $14.4m with 43 players under contract.

Eric Wood - saving of $4.5m (if cut with post 1 June designation) - cap space of $18.9m with 42 players under contract.

Kyle Williams - saving of $6.8m - cap space of $25.7m with 41 players under contract.

 

 

Conclusion

The Bills are tight against the cap without being entirely hamstrung by their position against it. Being able to reach a long term deal with Gilmore that reduces his 2017 hit (even by just a couple of million) would give them greater flexibility as would either letting Gilmore or Tyrod walk. There are enough easy cuts to allow them to have space even with a franchise tagged Gilmore and Tyrod's option taken up to sign their draft class and bring in a couple of dust settle free agents (think RT, S and WR as areas that might benefit from a reasonably priced vet addition). To create enough space to bring in a top end free agent at one of those positions they likely need to make one of the difficult cuts - Corey Graham and Eric Wood would be the ones who appear at greatest risk.

 

If Dan Carpenter is not cut I will have to seriously consider my fandom going forward.