Best Player Available Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The numbers are wrong. El. Pegul himself said it's only a 2 year drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016  ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- One in 6 million. Well, one in approximately 6 million. That was the probability, according to ESPN Stats & Information, that the Buffalo Bills would miss the playoffs from the 2000 through 2016 seasons. For mathematical purposes, that calculation assumes each team had an equal chance of qualifying for the postseason each year. The Bills, with their dramatic, 34-31 overtime loss Saturday to the Miami Dolphins, beat the long odds against their run of futility and extended their postseason drought to 17 seasons. Already the longest drought among North America's four major professional sports leagues, it is now tied for the fifth-longest postseason drought in NFL history -- and already stands as the only drought that took place entirely after the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.  https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Y6YOQfIs7WQJ:https://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/27027/bills-playoff-drought-now-17-seasons-beats-one-in-six-million-odds+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us   WTF..this doesn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 (edited) Using the same calculations as above but over 17 years I get  0.000104854 = 52427/500000000   What are the Bills or any NFL team's odds of missing the playoffs 17 years in a row?  What is 52427 in 500 million?  or approximately 1 in 9,537 Edited December 29, 2016 by PolishDave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 It's almost like winning the Lotto! But in reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QB Bills Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Now calculate the odds of also never having a top 2 pick and only playing one meaningful week 17 game in that span. Â It really is incredible to have been stuck in this purgatory for almost two decades. Mathematically, it's next to impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 IMPOSSIBLE! It's what we do..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 The calculation assumes: Â "For mathematical purposes, that calculation assumes each team had an equal chance of qualifying for the postseason each year." Â Come on.. that isn't the way sports works at all. You are failing to account for good players, coaches, management, etc. This random number is meaningless to me. Another reason I don't let ESPN do my taxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cereal Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 You did well on the Calculus Regent Exam, didn't you? Show off...... <- Former High School Math Team Captain... trying to re-live the glory days at y'all's expense.................................. Â The Sabres are on the path to six straight years with no playoffs in a league where 16 out of 30 teams make it every year. Mathematically, what is the more difficult feat? In the first two years of the Sabres' current drought (2011-12 and 2012-13), there were 15 teams in the Eastern Conference. Assuming they don't make it this year ( you mcbride... ), and assuming equal odds (as the OP's link does), the odds would be: Â (7/15)^2 * (8/16)^4 = 1 in 73. Â So, the Bills' feat is more difficult. Â The Sabres' odds of missing the playoffs 17 years in row is 1 in 131,072. Â Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Think of the collective intelligence needed to accomplish something that random chance says should only happen once in thousands of attempts! Â There's a remarkable level of skill involved in this that I think we under appreciate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I wrote and ran a Monte Carlo simulation of it, based on three playoff slots available to each team. Â And over 100,000,000 runs, it is, in fact, about 1 in 2571. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 (edited) To help explain why 1 in 6 million is not wrong, consider a much more simple example.  What are the odds of flipping a coin and getting heads 17 times a row?  The probability of getting heads 1 time is .5. That is because there is only 1 way to flip heads, but 2 possible outcomes. 1/2 = .5  To calculate the odds of flipping a heads 17 times in a row, you must multiply .5 x .5 x.5 x .5 (continuing until you have multiplied 17 .5s together).  That yields a decimal of .0000076, rounding to keep it somewhat simple and not end up with too many decimal places.  Expressing that decimal as a fraction in reduced terms gives you 19/25,000,000.  ​So the odds of flipping a heads 17 times in a row are @ 19 in 25 million. Edited December 30, 2016 by Fadingpain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris heff Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 It is a little known fact that 78% of all statistics are made up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 To help explain why 1 in 6 million is not wrong, consider a much more simple example.  What are the odds of flipping a coin and getting heads 17 times a row?  The probability of getting heads 1 time is .5. That is because there is only 1 way to flip heads, but 2 possible outcomes. 1/2 = .5  To calculate the odds of flipping a heads 17 times in a row, you must multiply .5 x .5 x.5 x .5 (continuing until you have multiplied 17 .5s together).  That yields a decimal of .0000076, rounding to keep it somewhat simple and not end up with too many decimal places.  Expressing that decimal as a fraction in reduced terms gives you 19/25,000,000.  ​So the odds of flipping a heads 17 times in a row are @ 19 in 25 million.  [This is an automated response.]  You're an idiot.  Created by DC Tom-bot, beta version 0.3. It is a little known fact that 78% of all statistics are made up.  And 103% of them are misunderstood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 Â [This is an automated response.] Â You're an idiot. Â Created by DC Tom-bot, beta version 0.3. Â And 103% of them are misunderstood. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Why? Â 1) We have multiple independent verifications of the correct answer before you posted, so you clearly didn't read. 2) You copied someone else's work - it's the exact same methodology Cereal used, to get a different answer. 2) You !@#$ed up your math. 2 to the 17th power is 137,072. Not one million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 Â 1) We have multiple independent verifications of the correct answer before you posted, so you clearly didn't read. 2) You copied someone else's work - it's the exact same methodology Cereal used, to get a different answer. 2) You !@#$ed up your math. 2 to the 17th power is 137,072. Not one million. Wrong on all counts. Â Why are you raising TWO to the 17th power for this calculation? Â It's .5 to the 17th power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Odds of Bills missing for the 18th straight time are 1:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Wrong on all counts. Â Why are you raising TWO to the 17th power for this calculation? Â It's .5 to the 17th power. Â 0.5 is 1/2. 0.5 to the 17th power is 1/2 to the 17th power, which is (1^17)/(2^17). Since 1 to any power is 1, all you're doing raising .5 to the 17th power is calculating 2^17. Â The question isn't why am I raising 2 to the 17th power. The question is: how did you NOT know YOU were raising 2 to the 17th power? Â And that's still not how you !@#$ed up your math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 You mean we're NOT millionaires? It sounded better when we were millionaires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 (edited) It is a little known fact that 78% of all statistics are made up. 60% of the time, it works every time...(thank you, Brian Fantana) Edited December 30, 2016 by Ridgewaycynic2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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