2017 NFL Mock Drafts & Top Prospects

[BuffaloRebound]

Once the top 5 or 6 can't-miss guys get drafted, given the importance of the QB position and the low salary you have to commit to them, I'd much rather take a shot on a QB. There are just as many 1st round busts at positions that aren't nearly as important as QB. I'd rather have taken a shot on EJ Manuel than ended up with Tavon Austin.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Once the top 5 or 6 can't-miss guys get drafted, given the importance of the QB position and the low salary you have to commit to them, I'd much rather take a shot on a QB. There are just as many 1st round busts at positions that aren't nearly as important as QB. I'd rather have taken a shot on EJ Manuel than ended up with Tavon Austin.

But the next WR taken after our pick was Deandre Hopkins, Tavon was off the board. I'd rather have him than EJ.

[Solomon Grundy]

Three-round mock draft: Watson goes No. 1

 

 

 

 

 

PICK 10

 

Mike Williams - WR, Clemson

 

 

 

No matter what quarterback the Bills trot out next season, in this scenario they would have two former Clemson studs to throw to in Sammy Watkins and Williams.

 

44. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech

75. Buffalo Bills: Howard Wilson, CB, Houston

 

That's a nice draft!! Except I'm still taking Corey Davis over Mike Williams. Joe D's cold weather player permeates with me

May go S with Eddie Jackson over CB

[BuffaloRebound]

But the next WR taken after our pick was Deandre Hopkins, Tavon was off the board. I'd rather have him than EJ.

Would we have won any more games with Hopkins on our team? How about if we 'over-drafted' Derek Carr or Dak Prescott? If you don't have a top notch QB, you should be 'over-drafting' a QB at least every other year until you find one.

[Kirby Jackson]

Would we have won any more games with Hopkins on our team? How about if we 'over-drafted' Derek Carr or Dak Prescott? If you don't have a top notch QB, you should be 'over-drafting' a QB at least every other year until you find one.

Who thought Dak was "top notch" before the draft? He went in the 4th round. Every single team passed on him multiple times. Everyone passed on Carr as well. You would be happy if you got those guys but if you overdrafted Jimmy Clausen or Geno Smith or whoever it would suck.

 

I hate people cherry picking the best QBs that didn't go early and acting as if that's easy. Someone the other day used Matt Hasselbeck, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson as guys we could have taken. Since Hasselbeck was drafted 127 other QBs were taken in the 3rd round or later that weren't Brady or Wilson. The odds of getting someone like that is not good. It's not 20% likely, it's more like 4%.

Edited January 24, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[BuffaloRebound]

Since 1996 (year Kelly retired), we've drafted grand total of 5 QB's. Losman in '04, Edwards in '07, Levi Brown in 2010, EJ in 2013, and Cardale in 2016. In contrast, Patriots have drafted 8 QB's since 2002 even though they had perhaps best QB of all time on their roster.

[Kirby Jackson]

Since 1996 (year Kelly retired), we've drafted grand total of 5 QB's. Losman in '04, Edwards in '07, Levi Brown in 2010, EJ in 2013, and Cardale in 2016. In contrast, Patriots have drafted 8 QB's since 2002 even though they had perhaps best QB of all time on their roster.

We should definitely draft QBs more often. We just need to keep in mind that the likelihood of finding a franchise guy (especially 3rd round or later) is less than 10%. While we remember Dak and Russell Wilson we can't forget about John David Booty and Andre Woodson. There are a lot more of those guys.

[26CornerBlitz]

@TBNSports

#Bills scouts handle @SeniorBowl, coaches stay back. @VicCarucci from the #SeniorBowl at [bN] Blitz: http://bit.ly/2jm5lT6

[BuffaloRebound]

We should definitely draft QBs more often. We just need to keep in mind that the likelihood of finding a franchise guy (especially 3rd round or later) is less than 10%. While we remember Dak and Russell Wilson we can't forget about John David Booty and Andre Woodson. There are a lot more of those guys.

No illusions that guys like Cardale are gonna pan out, but the risk is absolutely worth it. I actually advocate taking a QB in the top 2 rounds at least every other year until you find a top notch starter. 2 years is long enough to know if a guy has a shot to be an upper echelon guy. Rookie contracts are now cost friendly enough that 1st round QBs don't hurt you that much if they don't pan out. Problem is when guys like EJ prevent you from seriously considering another QB in the first 2 rounds. If they're too emotionally fragile to compete with a Derek Carr in year 2, then they're not gonna pan out anyway.

[Blokestradamus]

Forrest Lamp weighed in with shorter arms than even I expected. The dream, she is dead.

@PFF_Steve

Not sure how Forrest Lamp managed to block everyone with no arms, but he had quite the college career

[thebandit27]

 

Forrest Lamp weighed in with shorter arms than even I expected. The dream, she is dead.

 

@PFF_Steve

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not sure how Forrest Lamp managed to block everyone with no arms, but he had quite the college career

So he'll have to settle for being a RG.

 

Andy Levitre had the same criticism and ended up a mid 2nd round pick.

[Blokestradamus]

So he'll have to settle for being a RG.

 

Andy Levitre had the same criticism and ended up a mid 2nd round pick.

 

If he's going to get kicked inside, I want him at Center. I think he could be an All-Pro C within 2 seasons. Throw that nasty bastard into the middle of a knife fight.

 

Lamp's arms are 5" shorter than Julie'n Davenport's. I know which one I'd rather have on the blind side of my QB

[JohnC]

Who thought Dak was "top notch" before the draft? He went in the 4th round. Every single team passed on him multiple times. Everyone passed on Carr as well. You would be happy if you got those guys but if you overdrafted Jimmy Clausen or Geno Smith or whoever it would suck.

 

I hate people cherry picking the best QBs that didn't go early and acting as if that's easy. Someone the other day used Matt Hasselbeck, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson as guys we could have taken. Since Hasselbeck was drafted 127 other QBs were taken in the 3rd round or later that weren't Brady or Wilson. The odds of getting someone like that is not good. It's not 20% likely, it's more like 4%.

If you are going to take a risk or increase your odds it makes sense to do it for the qb position. The Bills had more than enough opportunities to select good prospects but passed for players, good or bad, that in the end are of no consequence to its standing.

 

Russell Wilson was graded high in all attributes associated with his position except height. Country Buddy Nix moved up in the third round to select a track receiver who was a marginal player. He could have selected Wilson or Cousins with that pick. Derek Carr and Bridgewater could have been had with a first round trade down that would add additional pick/s to sweeten the deal. My point is basic: with a little more urgency and resolve to find a legitimate qb it could have been accomplished.

 

Let's put things in perspective here. The Bills have not had a franchise qb for a generation. It's not surprising in that same generation the Bills have not participated in the playoffs. There is no debate as to how important that position is to having success in the league. What makes our franchise so out of touch is that it is stunningly oblivious to what is so obvious to everyone else: Success is mostly predicated on the caliber of your starting qb.

 

You can't judge how foolish our franchise is by looking at how it is addressing that position from a year to year basis. The way to gauge their inexplicable foolishness is to take a block of five and ten years and ask yourself how much did we upgrade that position during that long stretch of time? Are you laughing or crying?

 

The argument that frequently is made is that this is not a good qb draft year. When that same argument is made for a decade it becomes a ludicrous argument to make. Even when there are elite prospects that doesn't mean that your 8-8 mediocre team will be in position to select that prospect. That calls for repeated attempts in so called good or bad draft years.

 

My stance is dramatically different from yours. Until a franchise qb is ensconced on our roster the pursuit of a qb should be a priority. Quibbling over who is the best CB or S should be secondary to securing a qb.

 

When the cycle of failure repeats itself for a generation don't you think it is time to change your orientation and priorities on how to build a successful franchise?

[Blokestradamus]

Des King with sub 30" arms. Yeah, I think that was the end of him being a corner. Jourdan Lewis is longer and he's knee-high

[Kirby Jackson]

If you are going to take a risk or increase your odds it makes sense to do it for the qb position. The Bills had more than enough opportunities to select good prospects but passed for players, good or bad, that in the end are of no consequence to its standing.

 

Russell Wilson was graded high in all attributes associated with his position except height. Country Buddy Nix moved up in the third round to select a track receiver who was a marginal player. He could have selected Wilson or Cousins with that pick. Derek Carr and Bridgewater could have been had with a first round trade down that would add additional pick/s to sweeten the deal. My point is basic: with a little more urgency and resolve to find a legitimate qb it could have been accomplished.

 

Let's put things in perspective here. The Bills have not had a franchise qb for a generation. It's not surprising in that same generation the Bills have not participated in the playoffs. There is no debate as to how important that position is to having success in the league. What makes our franchise so out of touch is that it is stunningly oblivious to what is so obvious to everyone else: Success is mostly predicated on the caliber of your starting qb.

 

You can't judge how foolish our franchise is by looking at how it is addressing that position from a year to year basis. The way to gauge their inexplicable foolishness is to take a block of five and ten years and ask yourself how much did we upgrade that position during that long stretch of time? Are you laughing or crying?

 

The argument that frequently is made is that this is not a good qb draft year. When that same argument is made for a decade it becomes a ludicrous argument to make. Even when there are elite prospects that doesn't mean that your 8-8 mediocre team will be in position to select that prospect. That calls for repeated attempts in so called good or bad draft years.

 

My stance is dramatically different from yours. Until a franchise qb is ensconced on our roster the pursuit of a qb should be a priority. Quibbling over who is the best CB or S should be secondary to securing a qb.

 

When the cycle of failure repeats itself for a generation don't you think it is time to change your orientation and priorities on how to build a successful franchise?

I don't think that it is different. Finding a franchise QB is always the most important thing. I am just trying to provide perspective that it isn't easy to do. If we use Gunner's list from the other day there are roughly 16 guys that fall into elite, franchise or next generation guys. Half of the league has one. There have been 213 QBs drafted since 2000 and 131 since 2006. There are 16 guys playing 10 or 20 years later than that MAY be considered franchise guys. I used the 2000 draft because there are players (Brady) from then. 7.5% of the guys drafted since 2000 are franchise guys today and 12.2% of the guys since 2006. Obviously the list is a touch subjective but when we say "just go find a franchise guy" it is NOT that easy (especially when you aren't picking at the top of the draft).

 

To add some perspective here are the guys drafted in the last 10 years (131 guys) that would fall into the elite category, franchise category or next generation category: Ryan, Flacco (maybe), Wilson, Luck, Stafford, Cam, Carr, Mariota, Jameis and Dak. Again, that is 7.6% of the guys (if you count Flacco). It doesn't include Goff or Wentz but they certainly haven't shown enough yet to warrant inclusion. 1 guy a year on average is a franchise guy. It isn't as easy as we make it out to be. It is hard to find good QB play let alone great QB play.

 

Even if you use the 1st round only it's only 25% over the last decade (that includes Flacco). It falls to about 20% if you don't include him. In addition, 4 of those 7 were taken 1st overall. If a team needs a QB and has the 1st pick, good luck prying it away. 6 of those 7 went in the top 3 picks.

Edited January 24, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[JohnC]

I don't think that it is different. Finding a franchise QB is always the most important thing. I am just trying to provide perspective that it isn't easy to do. If we use Gunner's list from the other day there are roughly 16 guys that fall into elite, franchise or next generation guys. Half of the league has one. There have been There have been 213 QBs drafted since 2000 and 131 since 2006. There are 16 guys playing 10 or 20 years later than that MAY be considered franchise guys. I used the 2000 draft because there are players (Brady) from then. 7.5% of the guys drafted since 2000 are franchise guys today and 12.2% of the guys since 2006. Obviously the list is a touch subjective but when we say "just go find a franchise guy" it is NOT that easy (especially when you aren't picking at the top of the draft).

 

To add some perspective here are the guys drafted in the last 10 years (131 guys) that would fall into the elite category, franchise category or next generation category: Ryan, Flacco (maybe), Wilson, Luck, Stafford, Cam, Carr, Mariota, Jameis and Dak. Again, that is 7.6% of the guys (if you count Flacco). It doesn't include Goff or Wentz but they certainly haven't shown enough yet to warrant inclusion. 1 guy a year on average is a franchise guy. It isn't as easy as we make it out to be. It is hard to find good QB play let alone great QB play.

Let's put aside the top of the draft type of qbs such as Luck, Marioto and Ryan etc. With a little creativity and flexibility excellent prospects such as Carr and Bridgewater were attainable. This isn't from a perspective of looking back. They were acknowledge good prospects entering the draft .They weren't players that came out of nowhere and surprised people such as Dak. Flacco was selected by the Ravens when Newsome traded back into the first round. Carr and Bridgewater could have been had with first round trade downs. All of these qbs weren't elite qbs but they were good prospects that were very attainable. When you sit on your hands you can't grab. Maybe you can still scratch your derriere but you can't clutch what's out there if you sit on them.

 

The mentality of just let's wait is the crippling mind-set that allows the Cowboys to take Dak in the fourth round when we could have had him in the third round. Instead we take a lazy DT who only adds to the immaturity level of the roster. It was rumored that Nix wanted either Cousins or Wilson with his next pick, a fourth round pick. He waited and got neither player. That's the focus of my criticism with this organization. It is a reasonable gamble to be premature taking a qb than any other position, especially for a team that doesn't have franchise qb.

 

The fixation on player rankings doesn't equally apply to all positions. A 25-30 ranking for a qb such as Carr or Bridgewater has the potential to make a dramatic effect on a team even more so than a top 1-10 ranking of any other position. Houston is a good example of the impact of positions. Houston selected Clowny with the first pick of the draft. After some injury plagued years he has turned it around to become a dynamic defensive player. If you gave Houston the choice of selecting either the top rated Clowny or instead had the choice to select the lower rated qb in Carr which player would they now prefer? The obvious answer is the qb.

 

I'm not naive to believe that getting a top tier qb is easy. But not pursuing a good prospect because you are waiting to be in position to draft an elite qb prospect is like waiting at the bus stop at night when the buses are no longer running. There were a number of opportunities for us to acquire legitimate prospects. We didn't act. Just because there are no guarantees (same reasoning applies to all positions) that doesn't mean we should take a pass.

 

If you have a good qb and a flawed roster you can still compete at a high level. If you have a limited qb and a sterling roster you get nowhere. That's the point!

[Kirby Jackson]

Let's put aside the top of the draft type of qbs such as Luck, Marioto and Ryan etc. With a little creativity and flexibility excellent prospects such as Carr and Bridgewater were attainable. This isn't from a perspective of looking back. They were acknowledge good prospects entering the draft .They weren't players that came out of nowhere and surprised people such as Dak. Flacco was selected by the Ravens when Newsome traded back into the first round. Carr and Bridgewater could have been had with first round trade downs. All of these qbs weren't elite qbs but they were good prospects that were very attainable. When you sit on your hands you can't grab. Maybe you can still scratch your derriere but you can't clutch what's out there if you sit on them.

 

The mentality of just let's wait is the crippling mind-set that allows the Cowboys to take Dak in the fourth round when we could have had him in the third round. Instead we take a lazy DT who only adds to the immaturity level of the roster. It was rumored that Nix wanted either Cousins or Wilson with his next pick, a fourth round pick. He waited and got neither player. That's the focus of my criticism with this organization. It is a reasonable gamble to be premature taking a qb than any other position, especially for a team that doesn't have franchise qb.

 

The fixation on player rankings doesn't equally apply to all positions. A 25-30 ranking for a qb such as Carr or Bridgewater has the potential to make a dramatic effect on a team even more so than a top 1-10 ranking of any other position. Houston is a good example of the impact of positions. Houston selected Clowny with the first pick of the draft. After some injury plagued years he has turned it around to become a dynamic defensive player. If you gave Houston the choice of selecting either the top rated Clowny or instead had the choice to select the lower rated qb in Carr which player would they now prefer? The obvious answer is the qb.

 

I'm not naive to believe that getting a top tier qb is easy. But not pursuing a good prospect because you are waiting to be in position to draft an elite qb prospect is like waiting at the bus stop at night when the buses are no longer running. There were a number of opportunities for us to acquire legitimate prospects. We didn't act. Just because there are no guarantees (same reasoning applies to all positions) that doesn't mean we should take a pass.

 

If you have a good qb and a flawed roster you can still compete at a high level. If you have a limited qb and a sterling roster you get nowhere. That's the point!

The point that you are missing is if we are going to cherry pick Carr and Bridgewater we can't forget about: Cutler, Kellen Clemens, Tavares Jackson, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Brohm, Henne, Sanchez, Freeman, Pat White, Bradford, Tebow, Clausen, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Dalton, Kaepernick, RG3, Tannehill, Weeden, Osweiler, EJ, Geno, Bortles, Manziel, Jimmy G, Goff, Wentz, Lynch and Hackenberg.

 

That list is of the guys that have been drafted in the 1st or 2nd round over the last 10 years excluding the "franchise types" and Bridgewater. If you pull out the guys drafted in the top 3 there were 3 other QBs (this includes Bridgewater AND Flacco) that went in the top 2 rounds that ended up as franchise guys. It would be really easy to make an argument that TT has been better than both since the start of 2015. We can't just say that "we should have picked ____ guy that ended up good" while ignoring the fact that the overwhelming majority of guys drafted n that same area amounted to nothing. For every Derek Carr there are 10 John Beck's.

Edited January 24, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[BuffaloRebound]

The point that you are missing is if we are going to cherry pick Carr and Bridgewater we can't forget about: Cutler, Kellen Clemens, Tavares Jackson, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Brohm, Henne, Sanchez, Freeman, Pat White, Bradford, Tebow, Clausen, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Dalton, Kaepernick, RG3, Tannehill, Weeden, Osweiler, EJ, Geno, Bortles, Manziel, Jimmy G, Goff, Wentz, Lynch and Hackenberg.

 

That list is of the guys that have been drafted in the 1st or 2nd round over the last 10 years excluding the "franchise types" and Bridgewater. If you pull out the guys drafted in the top 3 there were 3 other QBs (this includes Bridgewater AND Flacco) that went in the top 2 rounds that ended up as franchise guys. It would be really easy to make an argument that TT has been better than both since the start of 2015. We cant just say that "we should have picked ____ guy that ended up good" while ignoring the fact that the overwhelming majority of guys drafted n that same area amounted to nothing. For every Derek Carr there are 10 John Beck's.

This is a good discussion. I really hope Whaley has learned that if you don't have a top notch QB, the rest is basically turd polishing. Somewhat disturbing that all the trading up he's done on draft day has never been for a QB, but hopefully he's learned something.

[GunnerBill]

At the end of the day it comes down to talent evaluation and the Bills have not been good enough at it when it comes to Quarterbacks. Yes they should take more shots but they should also take the right shots. We each have guys each year we like and would like to see them take.... hopefully very soon they get it right and hit.

[Kirby Jackson]

At the end of the day it comes down to talent evaluation and the Bills have not been good enough at it when it comes to Quarterbacks. Yes they should take more shots but they should also take the right shots. We each have guys each year we like and would like to see them take.... hopefully very soon they get it right and hit.

I guess that the point that I am trying to make is that no one has. There are 10 guys drafted over the last 10 years that would fall into your franchise tier, elite tier or next generation guys. Of those 10, 6 of them were picked in the top 3. That leaves Carr, Wilson, Dak and Flacco as the outliers. There have been A LOT of other guys drafted throughout the draft by teams trying to find a QB. The success rate for everyone outside of the top 3 picks is miniscule.

This is a good discussion. I really hope Whaley has learned that if you don't have a top notch QB, the rest is basically turd polishing. Somewhat disturbing that all the trading up he's done on draft day has never been for a QB, but hopefully he's learned something.

I have my thoughts on the best way to handle it. I would try to move back this year and acquire another 1st in 2018 (maybe Houston). You could probably get their 2nd and a next year's 1 to go back to 15 spots (or whatever it is) in the 1st. You would enter the 2018 draft (which looks like a good QB draft now) with 2 1st round picks. That should be enough ammo to go try to get one of those guys (whether it be Darnold, Browning, Lamar Jackson, Rosen, Falk, Rudolph or whoever). If, in the meantime, Tyrod takes steps forward and you think that you have your guy, you have 2 1sts to continue to build your roster.