dave mcbride Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 (edited) The Bills have returned 13 kickoffs from the end zone/goal line area this season.Their average starting point when they do return kicks from that area is the 18 yard line. The farthest they have gotten is the 24, and on those returns it has never looked like there was ever anything approaching a real seam. To me, they look like exercises in utter futility, with a higher-than-negligible chance of three negative outcomes occurring, either alone or in combination: penalty (twice), injury (Goodwin), and fumble (not yet, but we're due). So far, they haven't come remotely close to breaking one. (There have also been 21 touchbacks, one onside kick, and two pooch kicks to the 20 yard line. One of those pooch kicks saw no return, and they started from the 20. Against the Giants, they returned one 15 yards and started from the 35.) Their drive starts on returned deep kicks are as follows: 20, 10, 22, 15, 17, 14, 14, 22, 24, 20, 20, 16, and 20. Pretty sad. My question is, why are we ever returning kicks to the goal line given these results and the fact that we're so penalized on ST? I really think that should take a knee on every kick for which they can in order to avoid poor drive starts and prevent injuries as well as turnovers. Edited October 30, 2015 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beef Jerky Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 B.c you never know when they can score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 (edited) B.c you never know when they can score. Good teams play the percentages and don't succumb to the triumph of hope over experience. Edited October 30, 2015 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 While it's a stupid idea, it's actually one of the least stupid stupid ideas I've seen posted in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 While it's a stupid idea, it's actually one of the least stupid stupid ideas I've seen posted in a long time. I'll take that as a compliment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 A team can do a lot worse than take a chance returning a kickoff with one of their speedy playmakers in the open field. And if the returner feels some pressure to make a play because the offense is sputtering then that's very understandable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outsidethebox Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 But we have really great kick catchers!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I'll take that as a compliment! It pretty much is. I mean, when you compare it to "Trade Sammy Watkins and a bunch of picks for Andrew Luck," you're a goddamn football genius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 A team can do a lot worse than take a chance returning a kickoff with one of their speedy playmakers in the open field. And if the returner feels some pressure to make a play because the offense is sputtering then that's very understandable. But if it puts you in a worse position than simply taking a knee nearly 50 percent of the time, at the 20 or so another near-50 percent of the time, and in a much better position a minuscule percentage of the time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 (edited) But if it puts you in a worse position than simply taking a knee nearly 50 percent of the time, at the 20 or so another near-50 percent of the time, and in a much better position a minuscule percentage of the time?Depends on how representative you think the current sample is and how often you expect those explosive plays (good and bad) The idea of 18 vs 20, obviously 20 wins but that doesn't mean it's that simple. Edited October 30, 2015 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I know it's a different topic but it's been an epic fail by the NFL attempting to remove kickoffs for safety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 (edited) Depends on how representative you think the current sample is and how often you expect those explosive plays (good and bad) The idea of 18 vs 20, obviously 20 wins but that doesn't mean it's that simple. The league doesn't want kickoff returns because they found that the injury rate is higher on them. Hence they moved the kickers closer to dissuade teams from the basically foolish idea of returning kicks from within the end zone. I know it's a different topic but it's been an epic fail by the NFL attempting to remove kickoffs for safety. Yeah, it took a core play out of the game. They say they have the injury stats to back their position up, and maybe they do. Edited October 30, 2015 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 The league doesn't want kickoff returns because they found that the injury rate is higher on them. Hence they moved the kickers closer to dissuade teams from the basically foolish idea of returning kicks from within the end zone. Yeah, it took a core play of the game. They say they have the injury stats to back their position up, and maybe they do. They probably do, but KO's are now so dull they should seriously examine removing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 They probably do, but KO's are now so dull they should seriously examine removing them. Yeah, that would make sense -- over 60 percent of bills returns have ended in touchbacks, after all. The problem is taking away the onside kick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Yeah, that would make sense -- over 60 percent of bills returns have ended in touchbacks, after all. The problem is taking away the onside kick. Could give the kicking team the option to choose 20 vs kick A team with a good kicker/coverage could still kick returnables, a team just booting them saves the kickers leg, and onsides still an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 Could give the kicking team the option to choose 20 vs kick A team with a good kicker/coverage could still kick returnables, a team just booting them saves the kickers leg, and onsides still an option. Good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Jack Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Or go the XFL route and not allow the touchback, you must run it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That's No Moon Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 For as frequently as penalties are called on kick returns (even moreso against the Bills this year) you could make an argument against ever attempting to return a kick of any kind. Blocks in the back and holds are 10 yard penalties. Penalties on kicking plays are some of the most punitive because they negate any return in addition to penalizing distance. If the average return hovers around 10 yards, a block in the back or hold is then a net 20 yard penalty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Risk v reward... Risk is low, potential reward is high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That's No Moon Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Risk v reward... Risk is low, potential reward is high Risk is starting inside the 10 because of a penalty or fumbling the ball away. The most KO returns for TD by one player in any season is 4. The career record for KO returns is 6. The best KO returner we've had in recent memory was Terrence McGee. He had 5 in his 7 year kick returning career. So if you have a really good return man, you might pop one per season. How many times will you screw yourself with field position? McGee also had 5 fumbles during his KO return career. Fortunately he only lost 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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