Update on Chris Hogan

[GunnerBill]

I think he would be in that 80-100 range now.... I still think he has further scope for improvement. People say "he is 27 he better get on with it" but he isn't a 27 year old who has been being playing football all his life... he has gotten better every year he has been in the NFL... I think making the arbitrary decision that he has now plateaud before his performance suggests that is less of a fair assessment than saying that upswing can continue.

Which plays did he take the top off a defense? Like a Goodwin or at times Watkins.

 

Like Goodwin's 1 catch for 42 yards? Let's keep him them. I'll pencil his one catch in for week 5.

[NoSaint]

I think he would be in that 80-100 range now.... I still think he has further scope for improvement. People say "he is 27 he better get on with it" but he isn't a 27 year old who has been being playing football all his life... he has gotten better every year he has been in the NFL... I think making the arbitrary decision that he has now plateaud before his performance suggests that is less of a fair assessment than saying that upswing can continue

I think part of the problem isn't that he can't get better but once you hit a certain level the rare skills start to make the curve he has to climb MUCH steeper than it was from 150 to 100.

 

WR by being a position that carries 6 deep creates a situation where you get those top talents, then some very good, and then a drop back to a tier that's not as distinguishable from each other. The top 20 are easy to more or less define. Guys who belong on the field anywhere they go are not hard to spot through the 50s and then you get into a mess of guys that are common body types, pretty fast, catch well but not super glue.... The group runs incredibly deep and has few real characteristics that pop on film. You've side stepped the question "what does he do special" a few times and simply said he's good and could get better. All were saying is you may as well pick a guy that does something GREAT that you can build on since there are so many that do everything pretty well.

[truth on hold]

I think he would be in that 80-100 range now.... I still think he has further scope for improvement. People say "he is 27 he better get on with it" but he isn't a 27 year old who has been being playing football all his life... he has gotten better every year he has been in the NFL... I think making the arbitrary decision that he has now plateaud before his performance suggests that is less of a fair assessment than saying that upswing can continue.

 

 

Like Goodwin's 1 catch for 42 yards? Let's keep him them. I'll pencil his one catch in for week 5.

I don't see Hogan plateauing as in steady state, given the lack of anything special and what I've seen in preseason, I see him doing worse

[Rocky Landing]

I think part of the problem isn't that he can't get better but once you hit a certain level the rare skills start to make the curve he has to climb MUCH steeper than it was from 150 to 100.

 

WR by being a position that carries 6 deep creates a situation where you get those top talents, then some very good, and then a drop back to a tier that's not as distinguishable from each other. The top 20 are easy to more or less define. Guys who belong on the field anywhere they go are not hard to spot through the 50s and then you get into a mess of guys that are common body types, pretty fast, catch well but not super glue.... The group runs incredibly deep and has few real characteristics that pop on film. You've side stepped the question "what does he do special" a few times and simply said he's good and could get better. All were saying is you may as well pick a guy that does something GREAT that you can build on since there are so many that do everything pretty well.

I think a better word than "special" for what qualifies a WR to be on a team would be "valuable." Hogan has reliable hands, is a precise route runner (according to Lal), and works well in the slot. As Gunner has pointed out, he has improved every season. These things are just requisite for a successful WR, of course. But, Hogan is also an exceptional blocker, which would certainly be valuable in this offense.

[GunnerBill]

I think part of the problem isn't that he can't get better but once you hit a certain level the rare skills start to make the curve he has to climb MUCH steeper than it was from 150 to 100.

 

WR by being a position that carries 6 deep creates a situation where you get those top talents, then some very good, and then a drop back to a tier that's not as distinguishable from each other. The top 20 are easy to more or less define. Guys who belong on the field anywhere they go are not hard to spot through the 50s and then you get into a mess of guys that are common body types, pretty fast, catch well but not super glue.... The group runs incredibly deep and has few real characteristics that pop on film. You've side stepped the question "what does he do special" a few times and simply said he's good and could get better. All were saying is you may as well pick a guy that does something GREAT that you can build on since there are so many that do everything pretty well.

 

I am taking the guy that does everything at a B over the guys who does one thing at an A and then has some Ds and Es every single time. I know Kirby thinks differently on that and you possibly do to - that is a different view on what matters... but Hogan has already had a better career than the guy you were advocating a couple of years back and he will outperform the other one dimensional types you are advocating this time to. To you "doe he have an exceptional trait" matters. To me it matters less. I want a guy I can put out there and rely on to know the plays and run them correctly and produce. I don't believe the one dimeonsional speedsters he is often compared to do that.... hell I don't trust Harvin to do that he has done it so rarely in his career.

[NoSaint]

I think a better word than "special" for what qualifies a WR to be on a team would be "valuable." Hogan has reliable hands, is a precise route runner (according to Lal), and works well in the slot. As Gunner has pointed out, he has improved every season. These things are just requisite for a successful WR, of course. But, Hogan is also an exceptional blocker, which would certainly be valuable in this offense.

Are his hands that much better than the top ten guys that'll be cut this year and available to sign in October? Or simply do they all clear the bar of catching well enough?

[Rocky Landing]

Are his hands that much better than the top ten guys that'll be cut this year and available to sign in October? Or simply do they all clear the bar of catching well enough?

I really don't know the answer to that question. But, I'm not sure how it's relevant. I think the question has to be how he fits into this offense. He proved his reliability with his production last season, IMO. This preseason, I've watched him in both games line up in the slot, and shift to the inside right before the snap and block. And, he's good at it.

 

You've made the point that a WR at his depth needs to provide something special. Hogan's blocking ability might not be a particularly flashy trait, but it's certainly valuable.

[NoSaint]

I really don't know the answer to that question. But, I'm not sure how it's relevant. I think the question has to be how he fits into this offense. He proved his reliability with his production last season, IMO. This preseason, I've watched him in both games line up in the slot, and shift to the inside right before the snap and block. And, he's good at it.

 

You've made the point that a WR at his depth needs to provide something special. Hogan's blocking ability might not be a particularly flashy trait, but it's certainly valuable.

I just used that trait since you called it out as a strength.

 

I'll admit I haven't broken down his in line blocking vs other depth receivers. If that makes him an exceptional fit for us- awesome. Especially in a running offense is be ok if an exceptional blocker and passable wr was at 4 with a set of packages.

 

I'll say I'd like it even more from a guy that could exploit the deep ball in play action packages (Robert Meachem at his peak for the saints comes to mind). A blocker with jets that might be a shaky route runner at times would be an example of an interesting 4-5 in a power running scheme.

 

But at the moment it feels like searching for a justification for a guy you like more than anything (and I hope you don't take that as an insult- we all do it for guys we like). Similar to his allegedly fantastic hands and exceptional special teams play being on the list in years past which ultimately amounted to both being just ok and not noteworthy

Edited August 22, 2015 by NoSaint

[Kelly the Dog]

But he has improved every year he has been here and I still think he is on upward swing. I think he continue to be criminally underrated and not because "I want to root for the hard working underdog" but because of what I saw from him on the field last season in particular.

 

So you saw the numerous times when he didn't know where he was on the field and ended up short of the first down? Or easily tackled?

[GunnerBill]

But at the moment it feels like searching for a justification for a guy you like more than anything (and I hope you don't take that as an insult- we all do it for guys we like). Similar to his allegedly fantastic hands and exceptional special teams play being on the list in years past which ultimately amounted to both being just ok and not noteworthy

 

See this gets throw at me a lot with Hogan, but it isn't true. I think he is better than you do, I think he is more well rounded than you do, and I value that more highly then I value one dimensional guys who might do one thing brilliantly and others poorly. It doesn't make me less objective on Hogan in any way... in my good night v bad night thread yesterday I said good night for Goodwin bad one for Hogan as the injury will mean he doesn't get much more pre-season chance to shine and the guys he is competing against do. To my mind you keep one of Goodwin and Thompson and I still believe that is in fact what will happen.

So you saw the numerous times when he didn't know where he was on the field and ended up short of the first down? Or easily tackled?

 

Exaggerated but sure he had some bad plays... as did all the other guys you are balancing him against. I am not proclaiming Hogan the second coming of Andre Reed.

[NoSaint]

 

See this gets throw at me a lot with Hogan, but it isn't true. I think he is better than you do, I think he is more well rounded than you do, and I value that more highly then I value one dimensional guys who might do one thing brilliantly and others poorly. It doesn't make me less objective on Hogan in any way... in my good night v bad night thread yesterday I said good night for Goodwin bad one for Hogan as the injury will mean he doesn't get much more pre-season chance to shine and the guys he is competing against do. To my mind you keep one of Goodwin and Thompson and I still believe that is in fact what will happen.

I made the comment because it's an attribute he's never been really celebrated for and is hard to quantify and wasn't even among the top mentions from that poster for what he does well. It felt like digging til something wouldn't be disputed, to a degree. I'm guilty of doing that on guys before, so no shame if that's it. We all have. Maybe he's right though. Edited August 22, 2015 by NoSaint

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

its Going to be difficult

 

Harvin, Watkins and woods are locks. Betting all of the guys below will be on an NFL roster in October somewhere.

 

Goodwin

Hogan

Thompson

Davis

Easley

Thigpen

Edited August 22, 2015 by over 20 years of fanhood

[Rocky Landing]

I just used that trait since you called it out as a strength.

 

I'll admit I haven't broken down his in line blocking vs other depth receivers. If that makes him an exceptional fit for us- awesome. But at the moment it feels like searching for a justification for a guy you like more than anything (and I hope you don't take that as an insult- we all do it for guys we like). Similar to his allegedly fantastic hands and exceptional special teams play being on the list in years past which ultimately amounted to both being just ok and not noteworthy

Oh, I'm completely guilty of that. Honestly, I don't know how his blocking ability stacks up against Thompson, or Davis (although he is definitely better at it than Goodwin). But, I have seen him used that way more than once during this preseason, and I suspect this would be a requisite ability for a slot receiver in Roman's offense. I also think that Thigpen's, and Harvin's running abilities from behind LOS would be valuable in Roman's offense. My point is that the traits that separate WRs that are further down the depth chart may not be as noteworthy as things like speed, height, highpoint ability, or other such flashy attributes.

[26CornerBlitz]

@JonTWCNews

Chris Hogan walking gingerly with left leg in sleeve. #BillsCamp

[GunnerBill]

its Going to be difficult

 

Harvin, Watkins and woods are locks. Betting all of the guys below will be on an NFL roster in October somewhere.

 

Goodwin

Hogan

Thompson

Davis

Easley

Thigpen

 

Agreed. My big argument for Hogan here is I think he is the most well rounded of that group. To me we only have two well rounded WRs on our roster other than him - Sammy and Woods. Harvin has never demonstrated that to me... he is a gadget receiver whether he likes it or not. He has that reputation because that is what is on tape. Easley is a lock for me but as a gunner who can be your 6th WR in a pinch. If I had confidence in Harvin as a genuine possibility as an every down receiver maybe I'd feel better about cutting Hogan.

[26CornerBlitz]

@mikerodak

Rex says he is "cautiously optimistic" that Hogan will return for opener. Says Harvin will definitely be back.

[Kelly the Dog]

Another thing about Hogan is that it is a fallacy is that he hasn't played football very long so he has so much more room to improve because he's just scratching the surface. He's played football most of his life. He was a very good high school player and got scholarship offers from colleges. He just loved that he got a lacrosse scholarship from Penn State more than his football offers so he chose that. Then when he finished he had a year of eligibility so he played football in college one year. Then he played in 2011 and 2012 and 2013 and 2014 and now 2015 and frankly, hasn't had a good camp.

[NoSaint]

Oh, I'm completely guilty of that. Honestly, I don't know how his blocking ability stacks up against Thompson, or Davis (although he is definitely better at it than Goodwin). But, I have seen him used that way more than once during this preseason, and I suspect this would be a requisite ability for a slot receiver in Roman's offense. I also think that Thigpen's, and Harvin's running abilities from behind LOS would be valuable in Roman's offense. My point is that the traits that separate WRs that are further down the depth chart may not be as noteworthy as things like speed, height, highpoint ability, or other such flashy attributes.

I'll agree it doesn't just have to be "wins jump balls better than anyone" or "runs a top 10 in the league 40" --- I think Easley does well at carving out his spot with exceptional special teams ability.

 

If in a running package he's a great blocker and can get good releases for chunk yardage in a play action - that's textbook the type of example of finding someone that fits a role very well.

[Kelly the Dog]

Oh, I'm completely guilty of that. Honestly, I don't know how his blocking ability stacks up against Thompson, or Davis (although he is definitely better at it than Goodwin). But, I have seen him used that way more than once during this preseason, and I suspect this would be a requisite ability for a slot receiver in Roman's offense. I also think that Thigpen's, and Harvin's running abilities from behind LOS would be valuable in Roman's offense. My point is that the traits that separate WRs that are further down the depth chart may not be as noteworthy as things like speed, height, highpoint ability, or other such flashy attributes.

Goodwin is a good blocker. People just think he isn't because he's a track guy. But he even has a pretty good reputation as a good blocker.

[LB3]

@mikerodak

Rex says he is "cautiously optimistic" that Hogan will return for opener. Says Harvin will definitely be back.

For the opener? Coachspeak or did he just basically say that Hogan is making the team?

[NoSaint]

 

Agreed. My big argument for Hogan here is I think he is the most well rounded of that group. To me we only have two well rounded WRs on our roster other than him - Sammy and Woods. Harvin has never demonstrated that to me... he is a gadget receiver whether he likes it or not. He has that reputation because that is what is on tape. Easley is a lock for me but as a gunner who can be your 6th WR in a pinch. If I had confidence in Harvin as a genuine possibility as an every down receiver maybe I'd feel better about cutting Hogan.

Harvin, if healthy, might be part of why we are diverging. I think he's more than a gadget so having those 3 players does help me justify spevialty players instead of safety nets

 

When we had ruvell Martin, namaan Roosevelt, Donald jones and such- I was a big hogan fan as I thought he was a better all around guy potentially but now I'm less enthusiastic about the skill set

Edited August 22, 2015 by NoSaint

[GunnerBill]

For the opener? Coachspeak or did he just basically say that Hogan is making the team?

 

I think probably coachspeak but Rex has been high on Hogan the whole way through. People who don't like him have tried to talk down its importance but I still believe that unless two of the other excel in his absence Chris Hogan will be on this football team.

[LB3]

 

I think probably coachspeak but Rex has been high on Hogan the whole way through. People who don't like him have tried to talk down its importance but I still believe that unless two of the other excel in his absence Chris Hogan will be on this football team.

I thought Rex was high on Hogan as well. I believe I remember reading how impressive Hogan was through OTA's. I know he has had some bad days recently though.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

I think probably coachspeak but Rex has been high on Hogan the whole way through. People who don't like him have tried to talk down its importance but I still believe that unless two of the other excel in his absence Chris Hogan will be on this football team.

 

Get ready to be disappointed.

[SWATeam]

Get ready to be disappointed.

 

Rex just said Hogan should be ready for home opener. I assume he'll be on the roster unless he means he'll be ready to watch from home... Man, if we had only kept Da'Rick... We'd be all set

[Rob's House]

I could see Hogan being to this team what Ricky Proehl was to the Rams ca. 2000. He was a WR3/WR4 who didn't have a particular elite skill, but was a solid well rounded player who was a big part of that team's success.

[GunnerBill]

 

Get ready to be disappointed.

 

Oh I am sure it is the Hogan haters who are going to be disappointed, for a 3rd year in a row.

[Kelly the Dog]

Oh I am sure it is the Hogan haters who are going to be disappointed, for a 3rd year in a row.

 

I don't think anyone hates Hogan. They just don't see anything more than a pretty good overachiever who is a better story than actual receiver, and like another player with potential better.

[SWATeam]

Get your facts out of here!! He is fast, athletic, has great hands and hasn't played football that long. Did you know that Hogan played lacrosse in college?

Did you know that Da'Rick led the SEC in receiving once?

[GunnerBill]

I don't think anyone hates Hogan. They just don't see anything more than a pretty good overachiever who is a better story than actual receiver, and like another player with potential better.

 

Except all these guys with "better potential" end up with worse production. I've seen this movie before.

[SWATeam]

I don't think anyone hates Hogan. They just don't see anything more than a pretty good overachiever who is a better story than actual receiver, and like another player with potential better.

I don't think that's true. People dug in on a position years ago and are holding out hope to be proven somewhat right.

 

My problem with this discussion, which comes up over and over, is your point about potential. Hogan is a rare athlete with a great combination of size, speed and strength. The fact that he hasn't played football for that long makes me think that he will continue to get better. The only thing that I can think of is that people discount his athleticism because he's white. IDK.

Edited August 22, 2015 by SWATeam

[GunnerBill]

The only thing that I can think of is that people discount his athleticism because he's white. IDK.

 

There is definitely some of that going on subconsciously I think.

[Kelly the Dog]

I don't think that's true. People dug in on a position years ago and are holding out hope to be proven somewhat right.

My problem with this discussion, which comes up over and over, is your point about potential. Hogan is a rare athlete with a great combination of size, speed and strength. The fact that he hasn't played football for that long makes me think that he will continue to get better. The only thing that I can think of is that people discount his athleticism because he's white. IDK.

He's played football his whole life. He was a very good high school player who got college scholarships, he just choose lacrosse for four years in college and then played college football a year. Then five years in the pros.

 

And again, people that don't think he is very good don't hate him. They may be entrenched in their position as you say, they just don't think he is as good as the hype.

[NoSaint]

 

There is definitely some of that going on subconsciously I think.

There could be some- another one of those "we've all been guilty of type casting before" situations.... but I think part of why people don't expect his measurables to be as good as they are is he tends not to be a guy you see run by anyone, run over anyone, or juke around anyone. He plays a little less quick, agile and strong than he measures, it seems.

 

Put this way- I've seen claims of him clocked as low as 4.39 when googling him and as high as 4.6 and I think he plays closer to the possession receiver speed than white lightning

[SWATeam]

He's played football his whole life. He was a very good high school player who got college scholarships, he just choose lacrosse for four years in college and then played college football a year. Then five years in the pros.

And again, people that don't think he is very good don't hate him. They may be entrenched in their position as you say, they just don't think he is as good as the hype.

So you think that that one year at Monmouth, after a four year hiatus, got him as ready for the pros as the normal route? Taking that much time away from the sport, at that age, is HUGE

 

I'm not sure how much hype there is

Edited August 22, 2015 by SWATeam

[Rob's House]

There could be some- another one of those "we've all been guilty of type casting before" situations.... but I think part of why people don't expect his measurables to be as good as they are is he tends not to be a guy you see run by anyone, run over anyone, or juke around anyone. He plays a little less quick, agile and strong than he measures, it seems.

 

Put this way- I've seen claims of him clocked as low as 4.39 when googling him and as high as 4.6 and I think he plays closer to the possession receiver speed than white lightning

Would have been a better nickname than 7/11, lmo.

[NoSaint]

He's played football his whole life. He was a very good high school player who got college scholarships, he just choose lacrosse for four years in college and then played college football a year. Then five years in the pros.

 

And again, people that don't think he is very good don't hate him. They may be entrenched in their position as you say, they just don't think he is as good as the hype.

It's funny- I've often asked when does Whaley lose the tag of young gm that needs a mentor, or how many years does Fred's scenic route to the league buy him..., people get used to saying things about guys.

 

and think similar of hogan at this point. Hes an nfl vet. Hes not some guy that grew up playing rugby or basketball and just walked into his first camp. If we keep up the "he's new" angle too long we will be debating his learning curve vs steps he's losing!

 

The other thing that gets me is the "he's brand new and still learning" and "he's a precise route runner with great hands" in the same argument.

Edited August 22, 2015 by NoSaint

[Dragonborn10]

Hogan and Easely will both be gone. Hogan has a better chance of making the team but probably only if they keep 6 WR and keep only 2 QB's or 1 kicker.

[NoSaint]

So you think that that one year at Monmouth, after a four year hiatus, got him as ready for the pros as the normal route? Taking that much time away from the sport, at that age, is HUGE

Yea, but the 4+ years of professional coaching should be closing that gap pretty quickly now, no?

Hogan and Easely will both be gone. Hogan has a better chance of making the team but probably only if they keep 6 WR and keep only 2 QB's or 1 kicker.

They just guaranteed Easley 2.2m less than 6 months ago.

[Kelly the Dog]

So you think that that one year at Monmouth, after a four year hiatus, got him as ready for the pros as the normal route? Taking that much time away from the sport, at that age, is HUGE

No. I think it hurt his development for sure. But people act like he didn't even know the rules and had never played football before, so this is like only his rookie season in the NFL. But he was a football player as a kid and into high school at a high level. He played the game a lot. He wasn't starting from scratch. If he started early like most kids at about 7 years old, the way it sounds, he has been playing football 15 years of his 26 (he'll be 27 in October). Sure not playing in college stunted his growth. I'm not belittling that at all. But the common narrative was that he never played football before and it wasn't true, he was very good.

Edited August 22, 2015 by Kelly the Dog