NoSaint Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I think most backs get more than 5% of their yards on 5% of their carries. I don't think most good backs get 40% of their yards on 5% of their carries. As to my hyperbole, the stat merely reiterates what I've argued to death about CJ Spiller. He is the definition of inconsistent as a running back. Getting 40% of your yards on 3 carries is NOT good as an RB. It makes you a weapon to be used sparingly. He is unable to grind out any sort of significant positive yardage. And that doesn't even touch upon his inability to block any defender, his low football IQ and poor vision. At the end of the day, he's a below average football player with great physical gifts. He will be unemployed or one of the worst RB's in the NFL when he loses a "step." I'll agree 40 is likely high but.... I'll reiterate that 78 carries is a month for a lot of guys so I think it's far to ask about his career And I gave an example of a season shady had under 2.5% of his carries produce over 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 (edited) I'll agree 40 is likely high but.... I'll reiterate that 78 carries is a month for a lot of guys so I think it's far to ask about his career And I gave an example of a season shady had under 2.5% of his carries produce over 20% For me I don't think that it is a knock on Spiller that a lot of his yards were produced on not a lot of carries. That is who he is. That is who he was in college. He is a big play offensive weapon. CJ was never a guy that you "give it to until he pukes." Spiller is a big play guy and can change a game on a single play. There is no reason to pound him between the tackles. Why I think that Payton is such a good fit is that he will increase the percentage of big plays that Spiller makes. Payton isn't even trying to make Spiller more consistent, as some are complaining about. Sean Payton will have him more frequently operating in space. He will be given the room that he needs to hit home runs. Edited June 25, 2015 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Why? It's our boneheaded coaching staff (with the exception of Chan) that didn't know how to utilize him. Blame the coaches, not CJ There were plenty of times when Spiller had holes to run through and flat out missed them. The All-22 doesn't lie. There's blame enough for both the coaches and the player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 At the end of the day, he's a below average football player with great physical gifts. " False. "below average" guys don't break off 1700 yard seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vincec Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 For me I don't think that it is a knock on Spiller that a lot of his yards were produced on not a lot of carries. That is who he is. That is who he was in college. He is a big play offensive weapon. CJ was never a guy that you "give it to until he pukes." Spiller is a big play guy and can change a game on a single play. There is no reason to pound him between the tackles. Why I think that Payton is such a good fit is that he will increase the percentage of big plays that Spiller makes. Payton isn't even trying to make Spiller more consistent, as some are complaining about. Sean Payton will have him more frequently operating in space. He will be given the room that he needs to hit home runs. You can't pound him between the tackles and you can't run him outside where he runs sideways and runs out of bounds at or behind the LOS. Also, he can't pass block so be careful putting him in on passing plays. So run screens in every play that he's in there?False. "below average" guys don't break off 1700 yard seasons. You're on record. We'll see how good your scouting is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 (edited) False. "below average" guys don't break off 1700 yard seasons. They do when they have great physical gifts. But it proves to be an aberration. Edited June 25, 2015 by FireChan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 They do when they have great physical gifts. But it proves to be an aberration. Make me a deal though? If he has 850 rushing, 600 receiving and plays 15 games can you not come here and play the "I told you so?" I know you get a little crazy sometimes when you dig the heels in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dopey Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 to be fair, a 3 year run with 500 carries averaging 5.3 YPC and 115 catches at 8 ypc is a pretty good flash. thats 615 touches for 3651 yards over 3 years even with the issuses with injury, marrone, the line, our lack of qb, etc.... You just talked me into trying to grab him somewhere in my fantasy draft. He's my sleeper pick this year. Thanks, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YattaOkasan Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I think most backs get more than 5% of their yards on 5% of their carries. I don't think most good backs get 40% of their yards on 5% of their carries. If we just get some data sets we won't have to speculate about what most backs do. I would be down to run the stats (we could even have 2nd person verification), but I don't know a good source for the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PO16FFS Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Hope he doesn't have to make a block or run between the seam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 (edited) Make me a deal though? If he has 850 rushing, 600 receiving and plays 15 games can you not come here and play the "I told you so?" I know you get a little crazy sometimes when you dig the heels in. I've played "I told you so" with Spiller twice already. It has lost its allure. Edited June 25, 2015 by FireChan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 You can't pound him between the tackles and you can't run him outside where he runs sideways and runs out of bounds at or behind the LOS. Also, he can't pass block so be careful putting him in on passing plays. So run screens in every play that he's in there? You're on record. We'll see how good your scouting is. He does all of those things as good or better than Reggie Bush who had great success in this offense. It is about design and scheme. He will be used on jet sweeps, reverses, screens, counters, etc... He will not be expected to dance in holes. He will be put in a place to try to turn the corner. He will catch 75+ balls as well (if healthy). That is what they do in NOLA and that is why it is the perfect place for him. Certain skill sets fit certain schemes (Spiller in NOLA) and others are "square peg round hole" (Spiller in ground & pound). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tu-Toned Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Spiller's issues (weak vision, inability to be a every down back, weak notion of when to have patience and when to hit the hole), preceeded the Hackett-Marrone regime. Payton may very well squeeze every yard of productivity out of him but I doubt that will last for a long time. That said, I have no complaints against him as a human being and a team mate. All of the above ^^^^^^^^^ this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Quinn's homework assignment: what percentage of yards do most backs get on their top 5% of carries? What's spiller done in past years? Talk about an obscure stat that's worthless without context to benchmark it to I actually did a little research on this last year during a Spiller thread. I don't recall the specifics but I was surprised at how high the % of carries for the average back gains less than 2 yards. It was hard to find down good comparative stats, but I do recall Spiller seemed like more of a boom or bust guy than most, consistent with people's impressions. I think Spiller will have success and he will have a better yards-per-touch average in NO than in his Buffalo as he gets more use as a receiver, but I don't see him rushing for 1,000 yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I actually did a little research on this last year during a Spiller thread. I don't recall the specifics but I was surprised at how high the % of carries for the average back gains less than 2 yards. It was hard to find down good comparative stats, but I do recall Spiller seemed like more of a boom or bust guy than most, consistent with people's impressions. I think Spiller will have success and he will have a better yards-per-touch average in NO than in his Buffalo as he gets more use as a receiver, but I don't see him rushing for 1,000 yards. No one rushes for 1000 in New Orleans - he'd be te first back since pre-Payton and they've had a lot of talented guys. And I'll definitely agree he's a little more boom or bust than most. Also agree that I think most (myself include) have a gut reaction to 4 YPC as 4 yards being gained each touch while also somehow having home run plays and those 12 yard runs mixed in. When you actually stop to think about the 4 yards every touch kind of comment it's easy to see that it's normally a terribly inaccurate characterization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 McCoy, Spiller, that sort of back is always going to get a significant chunk of their average from big plays, it's the type of player they are. They have a harder time breaking tackles at the line. Slower, more powerful runners, are more likely to have less extremes. They get hit at the line, and they might push a couple yards beyond, but they also aren't going to be able to take off like Spiller/McCoy once they get space... unless they're AP. It's pretty simple and logical. I find nothing damning or shocking about the stat provided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 False. "below average" guys don't break off 1700 yard seasons. Or average top ten all time 5 yards a carry for his career, a huge portion of it while playing injured with crappy lines and crappy coaching. It's very possible he could get hurt this year. He has not proven to be durable. He is very likely to have a great year with Payton and Brees. I can't wait to see him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Or average top ten all time 5 yards a carry for his career, a huge portion of it while playing injured with crappy lines and crappy coaching. It's very possible he could get hurt this year. He has not proven to be durable. He is very likely to have a great year with Payton and Brees. I can't wait to see him. Even with a top ten YPC average, he won't even be considered for any achievements post career. Tells you all you need to know, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 You just talked me into trying to grab him somewhere in my fantasy draft. He's my sleeper pick this year. Thanks, I think. He's going to go high in most fantasy drafts. They have been talking him up all off season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Even with a top ten YPC average, he won't even be considered for any achievements post career. Tells you all you need to know, really. There is room to be very good without being a hall of famer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts