FireChan Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Does CJ eclipse that elusive 2 TD benchmark this year with the Saints? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 agreed. anything we are forecasting for next season is simply an educated guess based on what we have seen of players and schemes. on a similar note of schemes effect, id be curious your take on spillers production percentages being much more in line with the other guys you looked at when he was under chan, and a dramatic shift under doug (i put the numbers side by side in my post from a few minutes ago. i thought that was one of the more interesting points that sprung up in the conversation, and worth some chatter. i havent come to a conclusion but thought it worth note. that jumped out at me too! i actually expected it to be the opposite with more homeruns set up in Chan's offense, my recollection being his long runs were much longer then, mostly because they were systematically queued up. i think, rather, what we're meant to discern from these numbers is that his bad runs went WAY up under marrone. two seasons ago i did a map of spiller's runs which showed, as we expected, that the bulk of his runs came at the extremes. i think in 2013 and 2014, he had a tremendous number of really bad carries which pushed the percentage of his overall production further and further to the top. make sense? An easy way to determine this would be to look at the percentage of his zero to negative yard runs from 2011 through 2014 give me 10 minutes. As expected: https://goo.gl/vPhpg4(warning, some of these numbers are ASTONISHING) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big C Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 ^Some UGLY numbers there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 that jumped out at me too! i actually expected it to be the opposite with more homeruns set up in Chan's offense, my recollection being his long runs were much longer then, mostly because they were systematically queued up. i think, rather, what we're meant to discern from these numbers is that his bad runs went WAY up under marrone. two seasons ago i did a map of spiller's runs which showed, as we expected, that the bulk of his runs came at the extremes. i think in 2013 and 2014, he had a tremendous number of really bad carries which pushed the percentage of his overall production further and further to the top. make sense? An easy way to determine this would be to look at the percentage of his zero to negative yard runs from 2011 through 2014 give me 10 minutes. Could be a bunch of things but if taking the 2 and 3 year totals it seems that it's probably scheme/surrounding talent and not sample quirks. I'd not be surprised if chan did a better job creating those intermediate gains just thinking back on scheme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 ^Some UGLY numbers there. one QUARTER of his 2013 carries for zero or negative yards...and those were split 40/60 in FAVOR of zero yard rushes... yeah, but he has a 5.0 career ypc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Cubed Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Fans will point to Marrone as the problem But for those numbers you posted his chances of running for zero/negative yardage was 1/5 times and the numbers support that, he hovers between 1/4 and 1/5 times career. I'm not sure how that compares to other backs in the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 one QUARTER of his 2013 carries for zero or negative yards...and those were split 40/60 in FAVOR of zero yard rushes... yeah, but he has a 5.0 career ypc. He was bad last year. He was also hurt most of the year. The entire running game was awful. Fred was even bad. The line was awful across the board. The coaching was awful. The playcalling and philosophy was awful. The use of Spiller was awful. All those things considered, one would expect him to shine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 He was bad last year. He was also hurt most of the year. The entire running game was awful. Fred was even bad. The line was awful across the board. The coaching was awful. The playcalling and philosophy was awful. The use of Spiller was awful. All those things considered, one would expect him to shine. That was 2013. The year Fred had a career year in TD's and first downs, and had his best YPC since his MVP season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 That was 2013. The year Fred had a career year in TD's and first downs, and had his best YPC since his MVP season. Yeah but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigPappy Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 He was bad last year. He was also hurt most of the year. The entire running game was awful. Fred was even bad. The line was awful across the board. The coaching was awful. The playcalling and philosophy was awful. The use of Spiller was awful. All those things considered, one would expect him to shine. Well said Dog!! You could have put any Elite back behind our offensive line and they would have looked pedestrian at best. BigPappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 (edited) He was bad last year. He was also hurt most of the year. The entire running game was awful. Fred was even bad. The line was awful across the board. The coaching was awful. The playcalling and philosophy was awful. The use of Spiller was awful. All those things considered, one would expect him to shine.heck, id imagine freds stats, with the chicago run backed out get pretty rough too. on a twist seeing these numbers, i wonder if the best way to frame his production/skill set effectively (and im completely shooting from the hip here) is lump his runs and catches together. look at the zero gains the same as incomplete passes and him be up in that 7 yards per effective touch, but 25% of the targets are going to be "incomplete passes" instead of looking at him as a grind it out workhorse back. almost some sort of "backfield weapon" stat compilation instead for guys like him and bush i know that sounds a bit of a cop out on his issues, but it seemed his rushing kind of naturally mirrored a backs catching stats once you note the volume of no gain. Edited June 25, 2015 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Fans will point to Marrone as the problem But for those numbers you posted his chances of running for zero/negative yardage was 1/5 times and the numbers support that, he hovers between 1/4 and 1/5 times career. I'm not sure how that compares to other backs in the league. Ask and ye shall receive: https://goo.gl/oOFA2o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 (edited) Ask and ye shall receive: https://goo.gl/oOFA2o so when he was good in 12 he was generally good on all fronts, and last year when he was bad, he was on the bad side for all these boom or bust stats. its adding up in a reasonable way. if you wanted to get really crazy, maybe spiller and mccoy side by side for a few years (the percentage of yards coming from X percentage of carries, and the percentage of "failed runs"? is it possible that their skill sets and how they produce efficiently is more similar than some here would like, with mccoy having a lot more durability and volume of touches being the big difference? again, just shooting from the hip. Edited June 25, 2015 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Can't wait until people realize spiller is hardly anything more then a better half of the league back. He is halfnpf what Reggie Bush is without the fanfare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 He was bad last year. He was also hurt most of the year. The entire running game was awful. Fred was even bad. The line was awful across the board. The coaching was awful. The playcalling and philosophy was awful. The use of Spiller was awful. All those things considered, one would expect him to shine. If he was of any substantial use they would have kept Kiko. Why give up a running back who compares to Sanders and Sayers? Spiller is an incomplete player who shows flashes once in a while but makes crucial mistakes and doesn't take over games. Remember when he would stop the clock inside the deuce when they were trying to kill it? These idiotic mistakes and numerous missed blocks are tough to blame on Marrone, unless one really wants to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 so when he was good in 12 he was generally good on all fronts, and last year when he was bad, he was on the bad side for all these boom or bust stats. its adding up in a reasonable way. if you wanted to get really crazy, maybe spiller and mccoy side by side for a few years (the percentage of yards coming from X percentage of carries, and the percentage of "failed runs"? is it possible that their skill sets and how they produce efficiently is more similar than some here would like, with mccoy having a lot more durability and volume of touches being the big difference? again, just shooting from the hip. Here's the side-by-side. I don't think Bills fans will be/should be too excited about some of Shady's numbers. He's just as bust as Spiller, but far less boom, which speaks to consistency, at the very least: https://goo.gl/oXd76D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Here's the side-by-side. I don't think Bills fans will be/should be too excited about some of Shady's numbers. He's just as bust as Spiller, but far less boom, which speaks to consistency, at the very least: https://goo.gl/oXd76D we sometimes butt heads on opinion, but much appreciated on compiling some interesting numbers. its making for one of the more interesting threads in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 If he was of any substantial use they would have kept Kiko. Why give up a running back who compares to Sanders and Sayers? Spiller is an incomplete player who shows flashes once in a while but makes crucial mistakes and doesn't take over games. Remember when he would stop the clock inside the deuce when they were trying to kill it? These idiotic mistakes and numerous missed blocks are tough to blame on Marrone, unless one really wants to. http://www.patriots.com/video/2014/12/28/highlight-q2-kyle-orton-fumbles-patriots-recover Here's the side-by-side. I don't think Bills fans will be/should be too excited about some of Shady's numbers. He's just as bust as Spiller, but far less boom, which speaks to consistency, at the very least: https://goo.gl/oXd76D I think many are aware Shady is a dancer, but he is a much better back, especially for our purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San-O Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 If he was of any substantial use they would have kept Kiko. Why give up a running back who compares to Sanders and Sayers? Spiller is an incomplete player who shows flashes once in a while but makes crucial mistakes and doesn't take over games. Remember when he would stop the clock inside the deuce when they were trying to kill it? These idiotic mistakes and numerous missed blocks are tough to blame on Marrone, unless one really wants to. well, that was another Buddy Nix pick, one that was supposed to change the game for Buffalo... Another first rounder, gone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 In reading some of the posts in this thread, it is almost as if CJ is still on the team and this is where the haters have come out to play. I fully anticipate that there will be plenty of "discussion" about CJ during the regular season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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