Polian critical of Bills not drafting a QB

[1billsfan]

I have to agree with 'ol Bill on this one. I really liked Bryce Petty and it kinda' sickens me that we passed on him twice and the Jets got him. It's only my opinion but i think Petty will be the starter there by late season and he will be a solid pro QB.

 

I don't get why Bills management are the only ones that can't seem to draft a solid developmental QB? Either they overreach for an EJ in round 1 or they draft someone in round 7 or an UDFA who you know will never have a fair chance. Some of these round 3-4 guys turn out good.

 

You are pining away for a developmental QB after moving on from the current Bills developmental QB after him only playing in 14 games?

 

For the record, Bryce Petty is a much more developmental QB than EJ Manuel. Petty didn't huddle, played in a super simple "one read" passing offense, was never asked to throw into tight coverages and looked foolish when pressured by college players. Throwing a prettier spiral pass than Manuel doesn't mean he's a better prospect. The Jets screwed themselves because they are locked into Petty now.

 

The Bills have set themselves up to be free from any QB commitments should Manuel fail, because there are no expectations from a drafted QB who would be the next guy in line. That means the Bills will probably be at the top of the NFL destinations for the top free agent QBs or even a trade for Brees if Grayson looks good to go for the Saints in 2016. If Manuel fails I think a big name QB comes here one way or the other for the 2016 season. There are so many "good, but old" QBs that some team will want to start over with a 1st round drafted QB next year and deal their star to the star-studded Bills. The NFL will want this to happen to, you watch.

 

Still sickened?

[Lurker]

Great link, but honestly I can't say. I remember that draft; no one seemed to be saying he was going to go early. During his final season, everyone seemed to like him but said he was small. So few QBs pan out that I had no great expectations. But I hardly ever watched Wisconsin and wasn't in a position to judge.

 

I remember reading this story in August 2011: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/sports/ncaafootball/new-quarterback-puts-wisconsin-on-target-for-title-run.html?_r=0 .

Every GM loved him as a football player. The question was, "he's a great college player...but that might not translate to the NFL."

 

We hear that all the time about college QBs. But how many overcome the odds? One? Two? I can't even think of another name off the top of my head.

 

My take on Wilson is that he fell into the ideal situation and would not have anywhere near the success he's had if he'd been drafted by three-quarters of the the NFL teams, including the 2012 Bills...

[Buftex]

they signed young TT - imo it's just as good or better as drafting some guy right out of school

Exactly. I have been hearing the Bills draft getting slammed, for the last few days, primarily because they didn't draft a long-shot QB. Its' like there is the NFL Draft, which has taken on a separate life of its' own, and then there is the actual NFL. Some of these guys, these experts, just lose their perspective, as they try (too hard) to make the NFL draft more than it is. I am a little surprised that Polian, who has been around, can't see the trees through the forest.

 

From my own perspective, I know little about any of the guys we drafted, but I put a lot more faith in Whaely & co, to know what this team needs, and what we have...I wonder if Polian really believes that any of the 5 QB's drafted after the first round really has a better chance of contributing to this team than Manuel or Taylor do. No way they are cutting Cassel.

 

I suppose it is possible to believe that, and maybe Polian really just does not see anything at all in Manuel. But I trust our personal staff to make the judgment before I truest one of the 975 "draftniks" or "draft experts" out there to make that call...most of these guys, are just basing their opinions on what others are saying and writing...you know, like we do here?

Edited May 4, 2015 by Buftex

[BuffaloHokie13]

Every GM loved him as a football player. The question was, "he's a great college player...but that might not translate to the NFL."

 

We hear that all the time about college QBs. But how many overcome the odds? One? Two? I can't even think of another name off the top of my head.

 

My take on Wilson is that he fell into the ideal situation and would not have anywhere near the success he's had if he'd been drafted by three-quarters of the the NFL teams, including the 2012 Bills...

Agreed. The success of a drafted QB depends far more on where he is drafted (Team) than where he is drafted (Round).

[Kelly the Dog]

It's not right. He was drafted in the third round. It's an actual fact. Just because you personally think he's a fluke is irrelevant.

There is zero chance it will happen again. That is a fluke. IF there is another player who has every one of the 20-25 elements of being a great QB except height, some GM will take him in the first round because he could be Russell Wilson. But even the chance of that is near zero, because there has never been a guy like him before that was good at everything except height.

[Coach Tuesday]

There is zero chance it will happen again. That is a fluke. IF there is another player who has every one of the 20-25 elements of being a great QB except height, some GM will take him in the first round because he could be Russell Wilson. But even the chance of that is near zero, because there has never been a guy like him before that was good at everything except height.

 

ZERO?

[JohnC]

Every GM loved him as a football player. The question was, "he's a great college player...but that might not translate to the NFL."

 

We hear that all the time about college QBs. But how many overcome the odds? One? Two? I can't even think of another name off the top of my head.

 

My take on Wilson is that he fell into the ideal situation and would not have anywhere near the success he's had if he'd been drafted by three-quarters of the the NFL teams, including the 2012 Bills...

There is no doubt that a good qb prospect going to a better team has a better chance to succeed. You can say that about any position player. The most meaningful issue is if he would have been drafted by the Bills or any other team would he be an upgrade for that position or not? Not only would he have been a major upgrade at that position for us but he would have had a positive affect on the offense and the team's performance in general.

 

It's not a stretch to believe that if he was our starting qb last year the Bills would have been in the playoffs, even with its wretched OL. It's not a stretch to believe that with a qb such as Wilson receivers such as Watkins and Wools would have been much more effective. As bad as our OL was having a mobile qb compared to the immobile Orton would have improved the performance of the OL, especially in pass blocking.

There is zero chance it will happen again. That is a fluke. IF there is another player who has every one of the 20-25 elements of being a great QB except height, some GM will take him in the first round because he could be Russell Wilson. But even the chance of that is near zero, because there has never been a guy like him before that was good at everything except height.

Drew Brees falls in that stature category.

[YoloinOhio]

 

ZERO?

Yes. Because he has had so much NFL success. It's "progress." Scouting and evalutions evolve based on precedent and comps. If another college QB comes along exactly like Wilson, his height won't be questioned. At the time he was in the draft, there was no previous example to point to and therefore teams weren't willing to "chance" a 1st or 2nd rd pick.

[TXBILLSFAN]

 

You are pining away for a developmental QB after moving on from the current Bills developmental QB after him only playing in 14 games?

 

For the record, Bryce Petty is a much more developmental QB than EJ Manuel. Petty didn't huddle, played in a super simple "one read" passing offense, was never asked to throw into tight coverages and looked foolish when pressured by college players. Throwing a prettier spiral pass than Manuel doesn't mean he's a better prospect. The Jets screwed themselves because they are locked into Petty now.

 

The Bills have set themselves up to be free from any QB commitments should Manuel fail, because there are no expectations from a drafted QB who would be the next guy in line. That means the Bills will probably be at the top of the NFL destinations for the top free agent QBs or even a trade for Brees if Grayson looks good to go for the Saints in 2016. If Manuel fails I think a big name QB comes here one way or the other for the 2016 season. There are so many "good, but old" QBs that some team will want to start over with a 1st round drafted QB next year and deal their star to the star-studded Bills. The NFL will want this to happen to, you watch.

 

Still sickened?

 

Petty has EVERY quality EJ has and is more accurate.

He is a great kid, tough, mobile, arm strength, great work ethic.

 

Within the offenses he played in during high school and at Baylor, he didn't have to read defenses, take snaps under center and/or deal with many throws while under pressure.

 

So, the knock, is whether he can handle the pro game from two perspectives -- reading defenses and operating under center.

 

To me, that's worth a 4th round pick.

 

It's not as if he has played and failed in a pro-style offense.

 

He'll need time, one, maybe two years, but for a 4th ?

[dave mcbride]

There is zero chance it will happen again. That is a fluke. IF there is another player who has every one of the 20-25 elements of being a great QB except height, some GM will take him in the first round because he could be Russell Wilson. But even the chance of that is near zero, because there has never been a guy like him before that was good at everything except height.

Zero or "near zero"? You're talking out of both sides of your mouth! Seriously, he was drafted in the 3rd round. Kurt Warner and Tony Romo weren't even drafted, and they're arguably on the road to the HOF (Romo's stats are pretty incredible, actually). There will always be some guys who slip through because of some perceived failing or other.

 

Also, it bears repeating that going back to 1987, the Bills have drafted five QBs. Five in 29 years.

Edited May 4, 2015 by dave mcbride

[GG]

Of course the crux of the argument is that both Polian and the OBD defenders are right to a point. Polian is 100% correct that since he left, the front office has been awful in identifying and obtaining QBs. But the fandom is correct that this was not the year to add a QB through the draft.

[birdog1960]

Of course the crux of the argument is that both Polian and the OBD defenders are right to a point. Polian is 100% correct that since he left, the front office has been awful in identifying and obtaining QBs. But the fandom is correct that this was not the year to add a QB through the draft.

we don't know that yet just as we don't know how good or bad the bills picks are going to be.

[Kelly the Dog]

There is no doubt that a good qb prospect going to a better team has a better chance to succeed. You can say that about any position player. The most meaningful issue is if he would have been drafted by the Bills or any other team would he be an upgrade for that position or not? Not only would he have been a major upgrade at that position for us but he would have had a positive affect on the offense and the team's performance in general.

 

It's not a stretch to believe that if he was our starting qb last year the Bills would have been in the playoffs, even with its wretched OL. It's not a stretch to believe that with a qb such as Wilson receivers such as Watkins and Wools would have been much more effective. As bad as our OL was having a mobile qb compared to the immobile Orton would have improved the performance of the OL, especially in pass blocking.

Drew Brees falls in that stature category.

Brees is a great, great QB. He's not even close to Russell Wilson as far as doing all of the things a QB can do. Wilson has a stronger arm, much better runner, much better scrambler, much better on zone reads, stronger physically, faster, probably a better ball handler (although Brees is good). What I meant by never is that there really has been no one that does every single thing well other than Luck. He's a freak and a fluke.

 

ZERO?

Perhaps less than zero.

There has never been anyone like him in the first hundred years. That doesn't mean he is the best, he's clearly not. Just that there has never been anyone like him. That is why he is a fluke and why there will never be another. I suppose it's possible in the never say never category. But it's one in a million, which is never.

[GG]

we don't know that yet just as we don't know how good or bad the bills picks are going to be.

 

Bad programs continue to be bad when they think they know more than the rest of the league and try to be smarter in every draft (Bills and Lions), as opposed to sticking to a consistent formula that over time makes them a perennial winner (Steelers and Packers)

 

Of course we don't know how this year's class will work out, but the overwhelming consensus was that this was the worst QB class in a long time, and last year was the best in a long time. Bills didn't participate in either.

[Kelly the Dog]

Zero or "near zero"? You're talking out of both sides of your mouth! Seriously, he was drafted in the 3rd round. Kurt Warner and Tony Romo weren't even drafted, and they're arguably on the road to the HOF (Romo's stats are pretty incredible, actually). There will always be some guys who slip through because of some perceived failing or other.

 

Also, it bears repeating that going back to 1987, the Bills have drafted five QBs. Five in 29 years.

Zero because of the specifics of his unique case. Not because there will never be third rounders like him. That is why I disqualified him. NEVER.

[dave mcbride]

Brees is a great, great QB. He's not even close to Russell Wilson as far as doing all of the things a QB can do. Wilson has a stronger arm, much better runner, much better scrambler, much better on zone reads, stronger physically, faster, probably a better ball handler (although Brees is good). What I meant by never is that there really has been no one that does every single thing well other than Luck. He's a freak and a fluke.

Perhaps less than zero.

There has never been anyone like him in the first hundred years. That doesn't mean he is the best, he's clearly not. Just that there has never been anyone like him. That is why he is a fluke and why there will never be another. I suppose it's possible in the never say never category. But it's one in a million, which is never.

Steve Young was Luck's equal. He had legit 4.5 speed, a GREAT arm, incredible accuracy, and a very high level of intelligence. He retired as the highest rated passer in NFL history, although Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, and Payton Manning are now 1-2-3 in that category (with the latter 2 just slightly ahead of Young).

Brees is a great, great QB. He's not even close to Russell Wilson as far as doing all of the things a QB can do. Wilson has a stronger arm, much better runner, much better scrambler, much better on zone reads, stronger physically, faster, probably a better ball handler (although Brees is good). What I meant by never is that there really has been no one that does every single thing well other than Luck. He's a freak and a fluke.

Brees scans the field far better than Wilson and moves his feet better in the pocket. He's also more accurate.

Edited May 4, 2015 by dave mcbride

[C.Biscuit97]

Steve Young was Luck's equal. He had legit 4.5 speed, a GREAT arm, incredible accuracy, and a very high level of intelligence. He retired as the highest rated passer in NFL history, although Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, and Payton Manning are now 1-2-3 in that category (with the latter 2 just slightly ahead of Young).

 

Brees scans the field far better than Wilson and moves his feet better in the pocket. He's also more accurate.

Isn't Young the perfect example of why we shouldn't give up on EJ yet? He was a disaster in TB.

 

Petty has EVERY quality EJ has and is more accurate.

He is a great kid, tough, mobile, arm strength, great work ethic.

 

Within the offenses he played in during high school and at Baylor, he didn't have to read defenses, take snaps under center and/or deal with many throws while under pressure.

 

So, the knock, is whether he can handle the pro game from two perspectives -- reading defenses and operating under center.

 

To me, that's worth a 4th round pick.

 

It's not as if he has played and failed in a pro-style offense.

 

He'll need time, one, maybe two years, but for a 4th ?

If Petty was as good as EJ, why did he go 3 rounds later?

[BillsVet]

 

Bad programs continue to be bad when they think they know more than the rest of the league and try to be smarter in every draft (Bills and Lions), as opposed to sticking to a consistent formula that over time makes them a perennial winner (Steelers and Packers)

 

Of course we don't know how this year's class will work out, but the overwhelming consensus was that this was the worst QB class in a long time, and last year was the best in a long time. Bills didn't participate in either.

It's ironic that in the past 5 drafts (2011-2015) Buffalo chose not to take anyone in 3 QB rich draft classes (2011, 12, 14) took what looks like a bust one year (2013) and decided against one in a very poor QB draft (2015).

 

One thing is evident: that teams who are aggressive in pursuing the improvement of the position get their guy more often than a team that waits for the draft or a given player to come to them.

[dave mcbride]

Isn't Young the perfect example of why we shouldn't give up on EJ yet? He was a disaster in TB.

 

 

Was he really a disaster in Tampa? Or was Tampa by far and way the worst and most amateurish organization in professional sports at that moment in time? The 1986 Bucs were dead last or one away from dead last in pretty much every major defensive and offensive category. (Although they did beat the Bills!)

Edited May 4, 2015 by dave mcbride

[C.Biscuit97]

 

Bad programs continue to be bad when they think they know more than the rest of the league and try to be smarter in every draft (Bills and Lions), as opposed to sticking to a consistent formula that over time makes them a perennial winner (Steelers and Packers)

 

Of course we don't know how this year's class will work out, but the overwhelming consensus was that this was the worst QB class in a long time, and last year was the best in a long time. Bills didn't participate in either.

Yet, Bortles had a worse rookie season than EJ; Carr was equal to at best (though 58% on 5.49 ypa is terrible); and Bridgewater had a slightly better rookie year than EJ.

 

This just in. The Bills aren't giving up on a 25 year old qb after 14 starts. Good for them.