Would you, right now, trade EJ for Tannehill? Chapter 2

[metzelaars_lives]

Well, since 42 is the answer to life, the universe and everything? It's hard not to love it.

 

However, here at TBD, we have found that 3.5 also has a similar profundity.

 

For example: there have been ~3.5 threads started about EJ per week since he's been a Bill and all of them contain the reiteration of "Because Todd McShay said so!". Even when his own network's ESPN Sports Science show has rated EJ as one of the best pure talents in years. Recent problem here, posters locking in their opinions FAR TOO EARLY and then denying all contradictory facts. Example: "We gave away a chance to draft a QB by trading for Watkins." :lol: That was locked in on draft day, mostly by WGR parrots, and is now: Hilariously Stupid.

 

What this is about: pure talent. Given how things ended up with Marrone, we have to take his judgement with a massive grain of salt. There's a 50/50 chance EJ improves the same way Tannehill did last year. We can NEVER know. So, to base any conclusion, for EJ or against, on that, is patently retarded. It's merely conjecture/opinion presented as fact, and therefore, useless.

 

What I can say is: EJ's has a lot more pure talent than Tannehill. Period. It's obvious to anyone who is capable of observing athletic ability PROPERLY. Notice: stats/scores/blah has nothing to do with that. If you've never played/coached a team sport at a high level, your opinion is worthless, unless you can show me your ability to evaluate athletic ability is competent, and how you obtained it. X years of watching football doesn't count. Unless you can point out detail: like where a guy's elbow and toes are, in relation to the outcome of his throw? As I said: worthless. For the people who can only see this as a black box, where you put QB X in one end, and wins/whatever subjective measurement you use, come out the other end, but, you have no idea what's in the box or how it works? Please stop.

 

But...all of these are symptoms of the larger disease.

 

The disease: in the last 3 years we've suddenly decided to abandon everything we know, everything that has been proven about QBs, for reasons passing understanding. Rookie QBs(1st year out of college) having huge success in the NFL is an aberration. It hardly EVER happens. In the history of he NFL you can count on your hands the # of times a true rookie has had instant, and sustained, success. Why then have we suddenly accepted that every rookie QB that is drafted in the 1st round can "come right in and not only start, but take his team to the playoffs"?

 

Because of yet another FAR TOO EARLY now set in concrete opinion: "College football has changed, and guys are ready now!" Horseshit. The reasons for it: Luck, RG3, Wilson, Kaepernick, Dalton. All of whom played well in the beginning but, all of whom have come crashing back down to earth very suddenly. How well did Wilson play in the SB?

 

For 30 years, we've known it takes time(on average 3 years) to develop 95% of the true passing QBs who eventually meet with success in the NFL. Now we forget that, because of a few aberrant seasons? And then, these aberrations correct themselves: RG3 might not even be a Redskin next year.

 

Enough of this nonsense.

 

Let's go back to doing this the right way, shall we? We can't evaluate EJ, or any QB/WR/TE, either OT, C, DE, or S until AFTER their 3rd year. We can evaluate CB, DT, G, LB, RB immediately...due to the nature of the positions, as it has always been, and always will be.

You can tell if a CB is good right away but it takes three years to pass any sort of judgment on a safety? Andrew Luck has come crashing down to earth? Russell Wilson had a fine season last year and certainly did not play emoticon laughably bad in the Super Bowl. It is indisputable that Manuel has more talent than Tannehill? Why because he's bigger and can thrown the ball farther? Can he? He's not any better of a runner. What about the ability to read defenses and throw the ball accurately? Does that factor in to one's talent? While I agree that the verdict is not quite in, it is not "nonsense" to have an opinion on the prospects of his success. I have one. You do not apparently. If he sucks again this year, am I allowed to say I told you so or is it complete random chance how well he plays this year?

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

You can tell if a CB is good right away but it takes three years to pass any sort of judgment on a safety? Andrew Luck has come crashing down to earth? Russell Wilson had a fine season last year and certainly did not play emoticon laughably bad in the Super Bowl. It is indisputable that Manuel has more talent than Tannehill? Why because he's bigger and can thrown the ball farther? Can he? He's not any better of a runner. What about the ability to read defenses and throw the ball accurately? Does that factor in to one's talent? While I agree that the verdict is not quite in, it is not "nonsense" to have an opinion on the prospects of his success. I have one. You do not apparently. If he sucks again this year, am I allowed to say I told you so or is it complete random chance how well he plays this year?

Dear sir, listen my friend

 

IF EJ succeeds will you stoically accept the 80% here saying (we) I told you so?

relax, it's a long offseason. You will not convince everyone to feel as you do that EJ sucks now ....

 

your Resistance is Futile

[metzelaars_lives]

Dear sir, listen my friend

 

IF EJ succeeds will you stoically accept the 80% here saying (we) I told you so?

relax, it's a long offseason. You will not convince everyone to feel as you do that EJ sucks now ....

 

your Resistance is Futile

80% of the people on here believe that EJ Manuel is going to "succeed?" You spend so much time on this website- do you even read what others are posting? We agree that the verdict is not quite in. You do not agree with me that I am allowed to formulate any opinion whatsoever based on what I've seen. In your and CBiscuit's world, there's simply no way of knowing, we haven't seen nearly enough, 14 games, Marrone is now an assistant head coach with Jacksonville, etc. That's really the only thing we disagree on: I am skeptical about the prospects of his success, you are saying there is no way to have an opinion on the prospects of his success. Are we on the same page? But one thing I think you agreed with me on was that a good barometer of his success would be whether or not EJ Manuel will be the Bills' starting QB on opening day in 2017. You said you thought he would be. I myself do not. Why don't you start a poll asking that very question and see if 80% of the people agree with you.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

the reference was to the 80% saying EJ could be the starter.

 

Have a nice day my friend

[FireChan]

80% of the people on here believe that EJ Manuel is going to "succeed?" You spend so much time on this website- do you even read what others are posting? We agree that the verdict is not quite in. You do not agree with me that I am allowed to formulate any opinion whatsoever based on what I've seen. In your and CBiscuit's world, there's simply no way of knowing, we haven't seen nearly enough, 14 games, Marrone is now an assistant head coach with Jacksonville, etc. That's really the only thing we disagree on: I am skeptical about the prospects of his success, you are saying there is no way to have an opinion on the prospects of his success. Are we on the same page? But one thing I think you agreed with me on was that a good barometer of his success would be whether or not EJ Manuel will be the Bills' starting QB on opening day in 2017. You said you thought he would be. I myself do not. Why don't you start a poll asking that very question and see if 80% of the people agree with you.

You're wasting your time.

[prissythecat]

the reference was to the 80% saying EJ could be the starter.

 

Have a nice day my friend

 

The poll you posted asked if there is a possibility that EJ would be the starter. It didn't ask if he would be. Thats why you got 80%. Stop kidding yourself.

[metzelaars_lives]

You're wasting your time.

Well aware. I can't help it at this point.

[Alphadawg7]

Those are actually Tannehill's numbers through his first 13 games but point taken (he had 10 TD's through his first 14). Did Ryan Tannehill show up and perform so incredibly poorly in his second offseason and preseason that his team scrambled to go find a washed up veteran to back him up/start? I think one major point here that the "14 games" crowd continues to overlook is that only reason he has only played 14 games is because he sucked so bad last year that the coaching staff (yes the coaching staff that is now in Jacksonville, we get it) wouldn't let him sniff the field even after it became apparent that said washed up veteran sucked too. By contrast, Tannehill took every snap and threw for 24 TD's and almost 4,000 yards in his second year. So if EJ Manuel sucks once again this year and gets yanked after 4 games again in favor of Matt Cassel, do you guys get to tell everyone that EJ Manuel has only played 18 games and then compare his stats to Tannehill through 18 games? And meanwhile, Tannehill is throwing for over 4,000 yards again in his 4th complete season?

 

Can people just be honest and real about what happened last year already? EJ didn't suck for 4 games...he played well the first 2 games and had 2 rough games and in one of those games JJ Watt personally hit him 9 times on his own. The OL was the unit that sucked and EJ was getting hit before he finished his drop back. Any young QB would struggle in a game like that, and yet we still had a chance to win that game.

 

EJ's biggest issue was playing to careful, restricted, and afraid to make a mistake. Thats why he got benched, and rightfully so as you can't play that way. The coaching staff was crap and took away parts of his game like using his legs and the kid played restricted. Worse yet EJ never had a veteran QB to show him how to be an NFL QB and since the staff wasn't doing him any favors and ALWAYS preferred a Veteran anyway, they made the switch and stuck with Orton despite the fact he sucked.

 

EJ's shown quite a bit more than people give him credit for. Doesn't mean he will get there, but it sure as hell doesn't mean he won't ever get there. Jury is still out and he finally has a PROVEN coaching staff, especially at OC in Roman to help him learn how to be a starting NFL QB.

 

I still don't understand the grossly over exaggerative attacks on him. I mean I do, this board is full of some of the worst QB evaluators I have ever seen, but still, the hate for this kid rivals the hate for Whitner, except he's done nothing to warrant all that hate. He's one of the hardest working players on the team and one of the teams biggest cheer leaders when he's not in the game. Yet people hate on him but were also the same people making excuses for the other terrible QBs like Orton, Fitz, Trent, etc.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

 

The poll you posted asked if there is a possibility that EJ would be the starter. It didn't ask if he would be. Thats why you got 80%. Stop kidding yourself.

if you and others chose to misrepresent yourself in said poll (Can EJ be the starting QB for the Bills )

then shame on you. You can't discredit me for poll results if you screwed to pooch.

 

Have a nice day

Edited March 16, 2015 by BillsFan-4-Ever

[Kirby Jackson]

Part of the reason that I do not understand this poll is that if EJ threw for 4,100 yards, 27 TDs and 12 INTS in year 3 we would be having a parade. I would think that even the biggest EJ supporters in the world would be absolutely thrilled with that production. So would you trade the best case scenario from even the most optimistic fans for someone that just did that in year 3? This poll cannot be anything but 100% at this point even if you don't like Tannehill.

 

To be clear that doesn't mean that EJ cannot play or that you are a bad fan. Just read the question and answer it. Just take out the names and answer the question. Would you trade the unknown of the current QBing situation for 4,100 yards, 27 TDs and 12 INTs? If the answer is anything but of course you are clinically insane.

[LB3]

Part of the reason that I do not understand this poll is that if EJ threw for 4,100 yards, 27 TDs and 12 INTS in year 3 we would be having a parade. I would think that even the biggest EJ supporters in the world would be absolutely thrilled with that production. So would you trade the best case scenario from even the most optimistic fans for someone that just did that in year 3? This poll cannot be anything but 100% at this point even if you don't like Tannehill.

 

To be clear that doesn't mean that EJ cannot play or that you are a bad fan. Just read the question and answer it. Just take out the names and answer the question. Would you trade the unknown of the current QBing situation for 4,100 yards, 27 TDs and 12 INTs? If the answer is anything but of course you are clinically insane.

You're 100% wrong here. You can't take the names out. This poll is specifically about Ryan Tannehill. You always go on about how stats lie. You've repeated that over and over when comparing Clay and Chandler. The stats only matter now because they prove your point. I don't think Tannehill would win the Super Bowl with this roster (the best he would ever play with), so that means I don't think he'll ever get it done. Why trade for a guy and pay him $15m+ a year to be almost good enough? I wouldn't. Could Tannehill prove me wrong, sure, but I don't think so.

 

The goal is to win it all, not come close.

Edited March 16, 2015 by KikoSeeBallKikoGetBall

[Gugny]

The goal is to win it all, not come close.

 

Try telling that to Marv and Jim.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

Try telling that to Marv and Jim.

 

They'd both agree.

[1billsfan]

80% of the people on here believe that EJ Manuel is going to "succeed?" You spend so much time on this website- do you even read what others are posting? We agree that the verdict is not quite in. You do not agree with me that I am allowed to formulate any opinion whatsoever based on what I've seen. In your and CBiscuit's world, there's simply no way of knowing, we haven't seen nearly enough, 14 games, Marrone is now an assistant head coach with Jacksonville, etc. That's really the only thing we disagree on: I am skeptical about the prospects of his success, you are saying there is no way to have an opinion on the prospects of his success. Are we on the same page? But one thing I think you agreed with me on was that a good barometer of his success would be whether or not EJ Manuel will be the Bills' starting QB on opening day in 2017. You said you thought he would be. I myself do not. Why don't you start a poll asking that very question and see if 80% of the people agree with you.

 

I think that there's a frustration with regards to fans like yourself who say they know it takes time to develop an NFL QB, but then you want your cake and eat it too by trashing his game at every opportunity as if you’ve seen enough.

If you understand that it takes time, then of course EJ’s going to look rough is some games, ok in others with a few clutch performances thrown into the mix. That was what the Bills drafted. Everyone on this board knew that EJ Manuel was a "raw" QB. Did you guys not know this? So how is it that now you guys get to possess a self righteous indignation towards the Manuel supporters who are still on the three year plan? It’s as if you guys are saying “well yes it takes more time, but we know he sucks anyways”. It's so phony.

Let’s be real here. The whole purpose of this poll is to trash EJ. FireChan knew it would be a landslide and he wanted to twist the knife on him. On the fans who think that two years is not enough for a QB who was billed as “raw” coming out.

Just know this, every fan here who voted for Tannehill are on the hook. If Manuel tears the division a new one and Tannehill is looking like a weakling QB as he often does, you guys will forever know in your mind that you would have traded these two QBs straight up. Tannehill will never make me regret my vote not to trade for him.

[Kirby Jackson]

You're 100% wrong here. You can't take the names out. This poll is specifically about Ryan Tannehill. You always go on about how stats lie. You've repeated that over and over when comparing Clay and Chandler. The stats only matter now because they prove your point. I don't think Tannehill would win the Super Bowl with this roster (the best he would ever play with), so that means I don't think he'll ever get it done. Why trade for a guy and pay him $15m+ a year to be almost good enough? I wouldn't. Could Tannehill prove me wrong, sure, but I don't think so.

 

The goal is to win it all, not come close.

Tannehill on his current contract. He has not yet received that big extension which could change things. Stats don't tell the whole story but if you are going to use the eyball test it widens the gap between EJ and Tannehill. I am trying to give EJ the benefit of the doubt. If you are looking ahead to this year the only way to anticipate what is good enough is to project the statistics that will be needed to win. Just like I think that if Clay is given the exact opportunity as Chandler his stats will blow him away. I don't see why at this point there is any reason to believe that EJ is more likely to win than Tannehill if that is the measuring stick? Wouldn't the guy that has been more productive be more likely to have success?

 

The point that I am trying to make is that it is safe to say that the season Tannehill just produced is better than we can hope for our current QB group. That would be one of the best seasons that a Bills QB has ever had. I don't understand how we would take the total unknown that is out there now (all 3 of them) over pretty good QB play? We all seem to be in agreement that if this team could get an "Alex Smith level" of QB play they are a Super Bowl contender? Tannehill was far superior to Smith last season. Again, he is not my ideal choice but the level that he just played at is good enough for this team to win the Super Bowl.

Edited March 16, 2015 by Kirby Jackson

[prissythecat]

 

 

I think that there's a frustration with regards to fans like yourself who say they know it takes time to develop an NFL QB, but then you want your cake and eat it too by trashing his game at every opportunity as if you’ve seen enough.

If you understand that it takes time, then of course EJ’s going to look rough is some games, ok in others with a few clutch performances thrown into the mix. That was what the Bills drafted. Everyone on this board knew that EJ Manuel was a "raw" QB. Did you guys not know this? So how is it that now you guys get to possess a self righteous indignation towards the Manuel supporters who are still on the three year plan? It’s as if you guys are saying “well yes it takes more time, but we know he sucks anyways”. It's so phony.

Let’s be real here. The whole purpose of this poll is to trash EJ. FireChan knew it would be a landslide and he wanted to twist the knife on him. On the fans who think that two years is not enough for a QB who was billed as “raw” coming out.

Just know this, every fan here who voted for Tannehill are on the hook. If Manuel tears the division a new one and Tannehill is looking like a weakling QB as he often does, you guys will forever know in your mind that you would have traded these two QBs straight up. Tannehill will never make me regret my vote not to trade for him.

 

 

 

Realistically, what is the chance of this happening ? Would love to have our long term QB problem solved by an existing QB on our roster. But I don't really see that.

 

I am no fan of Talleywhacker but at least he hasn't shown regression or that deer in headlights look. The Bills defense won't stay together much longer so it is really a must that we have a good QB this season rather than seeing someone flail along and waste an opportunity with what is a pretty talented roster, at least on paper, at this point.

[GunnerBill]

We all seem to be in agreement that if this team could get an "Alex Smith level" of QB play they are a Super Bowl contender? Tannehill was far superior to Smith last season. Again, he is not my ideal choice but the level that he just played at is good enough for this team to win the Super Bowl.

 

I don't agree that with Alex Smith level Quarterback play we would be a Superbowl contender (we'd be a play-off team but we wouldn't be going deep) or that Tannehill was far better than Smith last season. The teams that go deep in the play-offs all have Quarterbacks that can make explosive plays. I don't believe either Smith or Tannehill do that - that is why you are stuck in that purgatory with them.

[metzelaars_lives]

 

 

I think that there's a frustration with regards to fans like yourself who say they know it takes time to develop an NFL QB, but then you want your cake and eat it too by trashing his game at every opportunity as if you’ve seen enough.

If you understand that it takes time, then of course EJ’s going to look rough is some games, ok in others with a few clutch performances thrown into the mix. That was what the Bills drafted. Everyone on this board knew that EJ Manuel was a "raw" QB. Did you guys not know this? So how is it that now you guys get to possess a self righteous indignation towards the Manuel supporters who are still on the three year plan? It’s as if you guys are saying “well yes it takes more time, but we know he sucks anyways”. It's so phony.

Let’s be real here. The whole purpose of this poll is to trash EJ. FireChan knew it would be a landslide and he wanted to twist the knife on him. On the fans who think that two years is not enough for a QB who was billed as “raw” coming out.

Just know this, every fan here who voted for Tannehill are on the hook. If Manuel tears the division a new one and Tannehill is looking like a weakling QB as he often does, you guys will forever know in your mind that you would have traded these two QBs straight up. Tannehill will never make me regret my vote not to trade for him.

 

Understanding that it takes QB's time to develop and being skeptical about EJ Manuel after two years in the league are not mutually exclusive. Also I find it highly interesting that the "you can't possibly know anything about a QB after two years" crowd are the same ones who like to mock Geno Smith and act like, well of course Manuel is better than Geno Smith.

Edited March 16, 2015 by metzelaars_lives

[dtgolder]

"EJ Fitzpatrick" is a bust...I'd trade him for virtually anyone/anything (as in another year or two he'll be out of the league and worthless, save maybe a backup role in the arena league)

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I don't agree that with Alex Smith level Quarterback play we would be a Superbowl contender (we'd be a play-off team but we wouldn't be going deep) or that Tannehill was far better than Smith last season. The teams that go deep in the play-offs all have Quarterbacks that can make explosive plays. I don't believe either Smith or Tannehill do that - that is why you are stuck in that purgatory with them.

Fair enough, what level of QB play do you think is needed to win a Super Bowl? Romo? Ryan? Brady? I am trying to get a sense for it. For me, Alex Smith or Tannehill would be about the floor that I think that this team could win with. I am expecting a top 5 defense, a top 5 ST and a top 18 offense (with one of those guys I would say top 15). I really like the coaching staff as well. To me they need to get middle of the league play at the QB position to be a Super Bowl contender. Those guys are the middle of the league to me.