Flip Johnson Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 We all want to know how far the Bills are from making the playoffs. Rex has already stated his opinion that an elite quarterback is not necessary to be a contender. We know from his history that this statement is both true (Dilfer, Sanchez) and risky (his last four season with the Jets). In other words, it is not impossible to make the playoffs without a good QB, but it isn't easy and it should be your longterm gameplan. With that in mind, I made my personal list of how I would rank teams in the AFC at the end of the year. This is based on the end of 2014, not any recent moves. Then I ranked the quarterbacks. Again, this is based on past performance, not on how I think they will do in 2015. While there's a degree of subjectivity to my rankings, I think you'll see that there isn't much discrepancy between team/QB. They're generally very similar. The biggest gaps would be San Diego (9-7 is low with a QB as good as Rivers) and Buffalo (9-7 is high with QB play as bad as Orton/Manuel). This begs the question - what level of mediocre QB play would suffice? I believe if the Bills had gotten mid-level QB play (i.e. Dalton/A.Smith/Tannehill) they would have won 10-11 games and made the playoffs. Let's stop dreaming about Brees, Manning, etc., and see if this team can get mid-level QB production. That would take them to the playoffs. I believe this is Rex's short term plan, along with improving the already great defense. The long term plan will be to draft a QB. I also believe that while he knows this is not a way to win a Super Bowl it can work for one year, and that once you make the tournament, anything can happen (see '09, '10). AFC Power Rankings 1. New England 2. Denver 3. Pittsburgh 4. Baltimore 5. Indianapolis 6. Cincinnati 7. San Diego 8. Buffalo 9. Kansas City 10. Houston 11. Miami 12. Cleveland 13. New York Jets 14. Oakland 15. Tennessee 16. Jacksonville 2014 QB Power Rankings 1. Brady 2. Manning 3. Roethlisberger 4. Rivers 5. Luck 6. Flacco 7. Dalton 8. Alex Smith 9. Tannehill 10. Fitzpatrick 11. Orton/Manuel 12. Hoyer 13. Carr 14. Geno Smith 15. Locker/Whitehurst 16. Bortles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Alex Smith and Tannehill are better than Dalton. In my mind, Dalton represents the dividing line for QB play. If your guy is better than Dalton, there's a good chance you can make the playoffs and perhaps even win a few rounds. If your QB is worse than Dalton, temper your expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Alex Smith level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 To me that question is not answered yet...... It could be that Greg Roman devises a scheme that actually makes a marginal QB acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'd say strong...to quite strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Johnson Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Here's another way of getting at this. Kyle Orton performed at the level of around the 25th-best QB in the NFL. If he had played at a top 18 or top 20 level they could have made the playoffs. When we talk about FA QBs that is what I am thinking of. Given the offensive pieces that are in place and given Rex/Roman's philosophy, who could play at at top 18 or 20 level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I don't know where else to put this but ... Doomed. @ESPNStatsInfo: Since 2006, every NFL team except one has had at least one season when its QB posted a Total QBR of 55+ The exception? The Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billstein22 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yeah Dalton is definitely below Tanny and Smith in my mind...I would say we could make the playoffs with either of those guys, and possibly with Dalton or Orton level production again. Sadly, Hoyer or Sanchez might be our best bets, with Grayson or somebody else (who knows) in the draft to give us hope for the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 "11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beef Jerky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Winning level... Enough to win games. Simple as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I don't know where else to put this but ... Doomed. @ESPNStatsInfo: Since 2006, every NFL team except one has had at least one season when its QB posted a Total QBR of 55+ The exception? The Bills Unless EJ makes quite the jump, we're probably not gonna hit that mark anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beef Jerky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Alex Smith level I want better then that... A guy who is so afraid to turn the ball over he will never throw to his WRs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 (edited) I'm thinking like this... Rex, especially with Kiko coming back, will make the D a little better. Danny Crossman will keep the ST in the Top Five. Greg Roman, especially with some new starters on the OL, will establish a capable running attack. With all that, we can Trent Dilfer our way into the playoffs. Edited February 18, 2015 by hondo in seattle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kemp2Warlick Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm thinking like this... Rex, especially with Kiko coming back, will make the D a little better. Danny Crossman will keep the ST in the Top Five. Greg Roman, especially with some new starters on the OL, will establish a capable running attack. With all that, we can Trent Dilfer our way into the playoffs. yes...remember when Alex Smith was a tire fire in SF ?...Harbaugh and Roman made him serviceable...could happen with EJ or whomever under Roman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I want better then that... A guy who is so afraid to turn the ball over he will never throw to his WRs. Prime Brett Favre couldn't have gotten the ball to the Chiefs WRs as bad as they were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beef Jerky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Prime Brett Favre couldn't have gotten the ball to the Chiefs WRs as bad as they were. Doubt that, this is all on Smith. He has every year become more and more timid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'd say strong...to quite strong. "Yeah...gotta diversify" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 (edited) To be a legit contender? I'd say top 15. To be in the playoff hunt? Top 25. (among all NFL starters, not just AFC) Edited February 18, 2015 by Dorkington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Formerly Allan in MD Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 yes...remember when Alex Smith was a tire fire in SF ?...Harbaugh and Roman made him serviceable...could happen with EJ or whomever under Roman Smith was a very good prospect who took some time to adapt to the NFL. EJ was a so so prospect who luckily, for him, got drafted much too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Smith was a very good prospect who took some time to adapt to the NFL. EJ was a so so prospect who luckily, for him, got drafted much too high. Is this based on Mel Kiper's draft board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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