Is Tom Brady on the Decline - Beginning of the End ?

[Augie]

I am sure Brady will hit his stride at his first game about the Bills

I hope the Bills hit Brady in stride both games this year. (Sounds similar, but different - and better.) And next. And the one after that. I hope he falls of a cliff from an ability standpoint and it gets ugly when they know they have to replace him. Bitter? Not me....

Edited September 20, 2014 by Augie

[Webster Guy]

Who does Brady have to throw the ball to?

 

The Pats have been on the decline the last few years mainly bc they are just not that talented. Belichick always gets the hype for being great at the draft which is a joke since all he used to do was make a lot of trades but they certainly haven't drafted well,

agreed. its amazing if you bring this up to a patriots fan they always disagree on this.

 

the truth is the patriots make lots of trades for draft picks but the problem is they're poor talent evaluators so the picks don't usually pan out, and they can't keep the good players they have because they have no warmth or loyalty to their players.

 

Brady's numbers show a decline, but the real issue is they can't draft and they have a weak defense year in and year out. Which is strange because Bill is such a "genius" it must be the ref's fault.

[dave mcbride]

I thought Brady had perhaps his best season ever last year considering the terrible talent he was throwing to.

 

 

agreed. its amazing if you bring this up to a patriots fan they always disagree on this.

 

the truth is the patriots make lots of trades for draft picks but the problem is they're poor talent evaluators so the picks don't usually pan out, and they can't keep the good players they have because they have no warmth or loyalty to their players.

 

Brady's numbers show a decline, but the real issue is they can't draft and they have a weak defense year in and year out. Which is strange because Bill is such a "genius" it must be the ref's fault.

What's interesting about the Pats on both sides of the ball is the point numbers are generally good regardless of yardage numbers. There's a lesson there, I suspect: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/ .

 

[/dev/null]

Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Rothlesburger, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Phillip Rivers are like M1 Garands

 

Sure they get older every year. But do you really want to be on the business end?

Edited September 20, 2014 by /dev/null

[Augie]

Time for a changing of the guard!

[Overseas Bills Fan]

My hope is that one of our LB's hit Brady with a good clean hit and it is his last game.

 

That happened to Bledsoe and opened the door for that arrogant, cheating (yes, he knew about spygate too) wastrel. It would be fitting if his career ended the same way.

[truth on hold]

I noticed him slipping a bit last season

Missing a few passes that he'd always nail before. Still think he's the best in the business, and no way do he and bellichik get buried in the super bowl like manning and broncos

Edited September 20, 2014 by Joe_the_6_pack

[Wayne Cubed]

Hard to tell really. Is he declining physically? Probably. Is he declining mentally w/regards to the game? Doubt it.

 

I agree with the poster who said the Broncos have gone about it the right way, putting lots of talented WRs around Peyton. I think everyone will agree Peytons arm isn't what it used to be. But that doesn't mean he still can't be great. His situational knowledge and reading of defenses is invaluable. How he runs the offense. He has explosive playmakers to take advantage of situations and defenses. Guys get open.

 

That's where I think the Pats have made their biggest mistakes. Yes, I think at a certain point in his career it didn't matter who Brady was throwing to, to a degree. But I think now he needs talent at the skills positions.

Edited September 20, 2014 by Wayne Cubed

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

Brady's numbers are down quite a bit this year and that really started last year.

 

Brady- 43 of 77 for 398 55.8% 5.17 yds/att 2TDs 0 Ints 78.8 rating

 

EJ- 32 of 48 for 375 66.7% 7.81 yds/att 2TDs 1 Ints 95.4 rating

 

Tom has 29 more pass attempts but only 23 more yds, less than 1 yd per pass attempt over EJ. The 55.8% is really not good. Out of the top 38 QBs on ESPN link below, only Chad Henne and Drew Stanton have a worse completion percentage. I think most people here are encouraged by EJ but also know he has to continue to to improve. Even with that, his completion percentage is 11 points higher. Everyone knew it would eventually would happen, but I thought it would be 2-4 years from now.

 

 

 

http://espn.go.com/n...14/seasontype/2

Edited September 20, 2014 by LOVEMESOMEBILLS

[Thurmal34]

The drop in production for QBs from age 36 to 37 is precipitous. He is def on the decline.

[truth on hold]

Brady's numbers are down quite a bit this year and that really started last year.

 

Brady- 43 of 77 for 398 55.8% 5.17 yds/att 2TDs 0 Ints 78.8 rating

 

EJ- 32 of 48 for 375 66.7% 7.81 yds/att 2TDs 1 Ints 95.4 rating

 

Tom has 29 more pass attempts but only 23 more yds, less than 1 yd per pass attempt over EJ. The 55.8% is really not good. Out of the top 38 QBs on ESPN link below, only Chad Henne and Drew Stanton have a worse completion percentage. I think most people here are encouraged by EJ but also know he has to continue to to improve. Even with that, his completion percentage is 11 points higher. Everyone knew it would eventually would happen, but I thought it would be 2-4 years from now.

 

 

 

http://espn.go.com/n...14/seasontype/2

his WR collection is weak - he consistently makes Woodheads and Adelman's of the world look like pro-bowlers, Gronk is lumbering around like Frankenstein, their running game scares no one, and he lost his best guard in the preseason. Last year without Gronk he lead his team to the AFC championship game. Don't you think it's a little premature to say EJ > Brady? I can only imagine what he'd be doing right now w/ Bills WRs and the protection EJ's been getting.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

his WR collection is weak - he consistently makes Woodheads and Adelman's of the world look like pro-bowlers, Gronk is lumbering around like Frankenstein, their running game scares no one, and he lost his best guard in the preseason. Last year without Gronk he lead his team to the AFC championship game. Don't you think it's a little premature to say EJ > Brady? I can only imagine what he'd be doing right now w/ Bills WRs and the protection EJ's been getting.

In no way was I saying anything you just implied. What I was saying is currently, this year and this year only, EJ is out performing by quite a bit. Even though EJ still has areas he needs to improve upon. I read in an earlier post of yours where you said Brady missed a few passes last year he normally hit. That's being extremely nice about it. I remembered seeing him miss 3-5 passes a game that were on him and no else but him. Over throwing wide open WRs running in the open down field. You know your declining when your numbers are not nearly as good as a QB who has started 12 games and needs improvement in many areas. It use to not matter who was playing WR his numbers have never looked this bad.

[billsfan1959]

Call me when Bill Belicheck is on the decline.

IMO, if you remove Tom Brady from the equation, the Patriots are an average or below team since 2009 - even with Belicheck

[NoSaint]

In no way was I saying anything you just implied. What I was saying is currently, this year and this year only, EJ is out performing by quite a bit. Even though EJ still has areas he needs to improve upon. I read in an earlier post of yours where you said Brady missed a few passes last year he normally hit. That's being extremely nice about it. I remembered seeing him miss 3-5 passes a game that were on him and no else but him. Over throwing wide open WRs running in the open down field. You know your declining when your numbers are not nearly as good as a QB who has started 12 games and needs improvement in many areas. It use to not matter who was playing WR his numbers have never looked this bad.

 

It's also only been 2 games.... So I'm guessing that the averages shoot up as the season goes.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

It's also only been 2 games.... So I'm guessing that the averages shoot up as the season goes.

Maybe, maybe not. It always does until it doesn't. The decline is already upon us I believe. If you watched his games last year he was missing fairly easy down field throws. He's 1 of 15 this year on throws of 20+ yards. That's not anywhere near the Brady of old. Now one could use the argument his WRs aren't what they use to be, in which I would agree, but I believe it just hastened the decline.

[OCinBuffalo]

My hope is that one of our LB's hit Brady with a good clean hit and it is his last game.

There's definitely a history of a Bills game being a great QB's last due to a crushing hit. I think Brett Favre was the last one.

Who does Brady have to throw the ball to?

 

The Pats have been on the decline the last few years mainly bc they are just not that talented. Belichick always gets the hype for being great at the draft which is a joke since all he used to do was make a lot of trades but they certainly haven't drafted well,

This is perhaps the biggest story in football: the total destruction of a great football team by the ego of it's coach.

 

But, you'll never hear it. I think I've read maybe 2 articles that objectively call out Belechick for bad drafting/FA moves.

agreed. its amazing if you bring this up to a patriots fan they always disagree on this.

 

the truth is the patriots make lots of trades for draft picks but the problem is they're poor talent evaluators so the picks don't usually pan out, and they can't keep the good players they have because they have no warmth or loyalty to their players.

 

Brady's numbers show a decline, but the real issue is they can't draft and they have a weak defense year in and year out. Which is strange because Bill is such a "genius" it must be the ref's fault.

The way I see it, in terms of how we got here, 2 things happened.

 

1. Belechick inherited Bill Parcell's draft classes, and got extremely lucky with drafting a HOF QB in the 6th.

2. There was a reason why Mel Kiper declared after the 1st Belechick draft that the Patriots would "lose all 16 games", and then they went to the SB. Kiper was fooled, because he looked at what the Pats D had been, looked at who they drafted, and it didn't make any sense at all.

 

Reality: almost every other team in the league was running 4-3. Belechick wanted a 3-4. This meant that the best players/FAs for his system, were literally falling into his lap in bunches. He was getting guys in the 3-7th round, that, if everyone else was running 3-4, would have gone in the 2nd, at least. "Tweener" LBs that were useless as 4-3 DEs....were All-Pros as 3-4 OLBs. Big, but slow DTs, who were useless to the Tampa 2, because they couldn't get upfield, were perfect for NT/DE in a 3-4, where their job is to stay put and take up space. And on and on. At every position, it was like Belechick was drafting in the first round...for his scheme. He was able to build a killer D, immediately.

 

But, everybody figured out what was happening, and a bunch of teams went to the 3-4(shamelessly copied the Pats), suddenly, Belechick had to draft like everybody else, and every year since, has been exposed as not being very good at it. Add to that, Belechick has been pissing off/away the awesome D that he built one player at a time, sometimes 3 at a time, and replacing them largely with FAs(Seau, the great Adalius Thomas Fiasco), because the D guys he has drafted rarely, actually, almost never, pan out. That and the guys he drafted when it was only him drafting for 3-4, got old.

 

Today, with the hybrid Ds, things have only gotten worse. When the Pats try to switch into 3-4, is it any surprise that 265 lb, #1 draft pick DE Chandler Jones gets rag-dolled like he has been the last 2 weeks? I said that pick made no sense when they made it, and it still doesn't. Now it's like the Pats are playing this "already broke" hybrid D....which is why Miami rolled them so easily in the 2nd half of that game.

 

Imagine if Adrian Peterson had been able to play against the Pats this past weekend, instead of the Vikings trying to outpass them? 90% chance that's a different game.

Edited September 20, 2014 by OCinBuffalo

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

we're all waiting for Tommy to ride off into the sunset.

[billsfan1959]

There's definitely a history of a Bills game being a great QB's last due to a crushing hit. I think Brett Favre was the last one.

 

This is perhaps the biggest story in football: the total destruction of a great football team by the ego of it's coach.

 

But, you'll never hear it. I think I've read maybe 2 articles that objectively call out Belechick for bad drafting/FA moves.

 

The way I see it, in terms of how we got here, 2 things happened.

 

1. Belechick inherited Bill Parcell's draft classes, and got extremely lucky with drafting a HOF QB in the 6th.

2. There was a reason why Mel Kiper declared after the 1st Belechick draft that the Patriots would "lose all 16 games", and then they went to the SB. Kiper was fooled, because he looked at what the Pats D had been, looked at who they drafted, and it didn't make any sense at all.

 

Reality: almost every other team in the league was running 4-3. Belechick wanted a 3-4. This meant that the best players/FAs for his system, were literally falling into his lap in bunches. He was getting guys in the 3-7th round, that, if everyone else was running 3-4, would have gone in the 2nd, at least. "Tweener" LBs that were useless as 4-3 DEs....were All-Pros as 3-4 OLBs. Big, but slow DTs, who were useless to the Tampa 2, because they couldn't get upfield, were perfect for NT/DE in a 3-4, where their job is to stay put and take up space. And on and on. At every position, it was like Belechick was drafting in the first round...for his scheme. He was able to build a killer D, immediately.

 

But, everybody figured out what was happening, and a bunch of teams went to the 3-4(shamelessly copied the Pats), suddenly, Belechick had to draft like everybody else, and every year since, has been exposed as not being very good at it. Add to that, Belechick has been pissing off/away the awesome D that he built one player at a time, sometimes 3 at a time, and replacing them largely with FAs(Seau, the great Adalius Thomas Fiasco), because the D guys he has drafted rarely, actually, almost never, pan out. That and the guys he drafted when it was only him drafting for 3-4, got old.

 

Today, with the hybrid Ds, things have only gotten worse. When the Pats try to switch into 3-4, is it any surprise that 265 lb, #1 draft pick DE Chandler Jones gets rag-dolled like he has been the last 2 weeks? I said that pick made no sense when they made it, and it still doesn't. Now it's like the Pats are playing this "already broke" hybrid D....which is why Miami rolled them so easily in the 2nd half of that game.

 

Imagine if Adrian Peterson had been able to play against the Pats this past weekend, instead of the Vikings trying to outpass them? 90% chance that's a different game.

IMO, this is a pretty good analysis. Bill Belichick is from the Bill Parcells coaching tree; however, he is no Bill Parcells. Belichick has this, seemingly legendary, reputation as a defensive genius and draft day wizard. The truth is, he hasn't fielded a top 25 defense since 2009 - and the overall talent on the team has gotten weaker and weaker through his "draft day wizardry." Even when the patriots had good defenses and were going to superbowls, it wasn't the defense that was getting them there or winning them. In five superbowl appearances, his defenses have given up an average of 375 yards a game, 6 yards per play, and 21 points per game - hardly genius caliber. Even in the first superbowl they won, the win was less about Belichicks defensive genius and more about Mike Martz arrogance - along with a last minute clutch drive by a young Tom Brady that put them in a game winning field goal range.

 

Belichick is a good coach and the fact is that he has been at the helm of a team that has had tremendous success. However, the one constant in the success of the Patriots under Belichick is Tom Brady. IMO, without Brady they might have gotten to and won the first superbowl with the Rams. After that, I don't believe they would have experienced near the success they have without Brady. If I had my choice between Tom Brady in his prime as the QB of my team or Bill Belichick in his prime as the coach of my team - I would take Brady, hands down...not even close.

 

Brady might be starting to decline; however, until I see otherwise on a consistent basis, he is still in the top three or four in the NFL.

[CardinalScotts]

Of course he is. He's 37 years old.

 

yes the consistent string of good games isn't there, still dangerous

Edited September 20, 2014 by CardinalScotts

[NoSaint]

Maybe, maybe not. It always does until it doesn't. The decline is already upon us I believe. If you watched his games last year he was missing fairly easy down field throws. He's 1 of 15 this year on throws of 20+ yards. That's not anywhere near the Brady of old. Now one could use the argument his WRs aren't what they use to be, in which I would agree, but I believe it just hastened the decline.

 

We will agree to disagree that Brady will finish up with 55% completions and 5ypa

 

I'm not saying he's at his peak but those are poor numbers for a backup.