Watkins trade compared to Julio Jones trade

[Deranged Rhino]

Perfectly stated. The pompom waving crowd doesn't seem to understand this.

Understand what exactly? That EJ had knee problems last year? We understand it just fine, we also understand enough about sports medicine to know that none of those injuries portend long term issues. Only a huge pessimist would assume that he's injury prone based on last year.

 

What you're suggesting is that we should burn the whole thing down because our first year QB -- who showed the ability to make every throw (something this team has lacked at the position since the days of Bledsoe), showed the ability to lead and be clutch -- had some bumps and bruises in his first year in the league.

 

That's insane. That's not being realistic, it's being defeatist. And if you're a defeatist first when it comes to rooting for the Bills (or any team), I don't recognize that as bold or smart. I recognize it as STUPID.

[thewildrabbit]

The Bills aren't like the Falcons who were thinking that they only needed one other elite wide out to get to the SB. So, that is why they gave up 5 picks to move up for Julio Jones.

 

Buffalo needed more then just one player, and hasn't seen a playoff game in 14 years. Big difference!

 

 

The reasons I think the Bills were all in on Sammy Watkins is they felt the need for an elite WR, as last years receivers didn't get it done. The player with the most receptions was the TE Chandler at 65 or so. Plus, the Bills had Clowney / Watkins as their #1 & #2 players on their board. The Texans were being outlandish in their trade demands, and so the Bills made a better deal with the Browns.

 

The Browns probably would have never given away the chance to draft Watkins had they known earlier that their best WR Josh Gordon would be suspended for all of 2014.

 

Anyway, the current Bills FO appears to be 'all in" to win this year, and obviously they think Watkins can help them do just that. It remains to be seen if Sammy can step in and make the same impact in the NFL as he did in college.

[QCity]

Looking at next years draft, who is the great talent that the Bills will regret having the chance of getting? Is that talent better than Sammy Watkins? It seems to me that the Bills did their due diligence when they made this deal and may be laughing at all the naysayers in their "echo chamber"

 

There's great players that come out every year in the draft. Pretending that the 2015 draft will be a barren wasteland devoid of any talent is rationalization at it's most extreme. There's no question that Watkins is a phenom and the Bills did their due diligence, they just gave up far too much. As an example, Watkins was a projected 2nd round pick at this exact time last year.

 

 

Understand what exactly?

 

 

You don't understand that there's the possibility that EJ won't make it as an NFL QB. I'm rooting for the guy 100%, but really, it's possible that could happen. Yes I remember the Carolina game, but I also remember the balls he threw into the stands against the Jets. And if that worst-case scenario happens, it would be nice to have the option to fix it next year. Win now, right?

[Deranged Rhino]

You don't understand that there's the possibility that EJ won't make it as an NFL QB. I'm rooting for the guy 100%, but really, it's possible that could happen.

 

Clearly you're supporting him 100%. Clearly. :lol:

 

With friends like you, who needs enemies?

 

Yes I remember the Carolina game, but I also remember the balls he threw into the stands against the Jets. And if that worst-case scenario happens, it would be nice to have the option to fix it next year. Win now, right?

 

Even if they didn't trade the pick, they still wouldn't give up on EJ after only 1.5 seasons (baring a catastrophic injury which is possible for any player at any time regardless of injury history). They drafted him with the 16th pick, no organization gives up on that after only 10 games, or two seasons. What you're asking for is for the front office to hedge their bets this draft, play it safe IN CASE they need a QB next year.

 

That's a coward's way to run a team. And thinking like that is what led us to 14 years of NFL irrelevancy. Your posts and ideas about this draft show that you're stuck in the past. You're stuck in the negative nancy way of thinking that this team can't get out of its own way. In the past, you'd be correct, but after ANOTHER solid draft (and that's what we're seeing this week), the new management is showing they are different.

 

So stop being a coward and BE A FAN. That's my advice.

 

Especially in MAY.

[Kelly the Dog]

There's great players that come out every year in the draft. Pretending that the 2015 draft will be a barren wasteland devoid of any talent is rationalization at it's most extreme. There's no question that Watkins is a phenom and the Bills did their due diligence, they just gave up far too much. As an example, Watkins was a projected 2nd round pick at this exact time last year.

 

Pretending a #1 pick a year or two after the draft is rationalization at its most extreme, too. Every year as I expect you know, about half the first round picks are busts. A star player is worth way more than two good players, and WAY WAY more than a one very good player and one bust. There is every reason to believe that Watkins is going to be a star. He's not your average first round WR who is boom or bust. How you, or anyone, can say that it is obviously way too much is pure folly. It may or may not prove to be too much, but we won't know that for at least 2-3 years.

 

Granted, obviously your opinion is valid, and it's just an opinion. But to state that it is far too much right now, when history suggests that one of your two number ones is not going to pan out, seems quite extreme. I understand you thinking a #9 this year and our #1 whatever it may be is better than one Sammy Watkins. But to just state flat out it's way too much doesnt seem fair.

[Best Player Available]

 

Understand what exactly? That EJ had knee problems last year? We understand it just fine, we also understand enough about sports medicine to know that none of those injuries portend long term issues. Only a huge pessimist would assume that he's injury prone based on last year.

 

What you're suggesting is that we should burn the whole thing down because our first year QB -- who showed the ability to make every throw (something this team has lacked at the position since the days of Bledsoe), showed the ability to lead and be clutch -- had some bumps and bruises in his first year in the league.

 

That's insane. That's not being realistic, it's being defeatist. And if you're a defeatist first when it comes to rooting for the Bills (or any team), I don't recognize that as bold or smart. I recognize it as STUPID.

Honestly, I was with you until you said he showed the ability to make every throw.

 

That is incorrect and you know it.

[Nitro]

NFL CBA will impact next year's draft. There is a reason why 98 underclassmen declared for the draft, nearly doubling last year's entries. The conventional thinking is there will be a drop in talent available. There will be some elite talents at the top before the drop hits. Read this article. It will help to understand why some of the trades were made this year. Watkins trade has the potential to be a super one for the Bills.

 

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/01/24/nfl-draft-underclassmen-problem/

[sjjr]

If Sammy ends up being like Julio Jones, it will be one of the great trades of all time in Bills history.

[DanInUticaTampa]

 

You don't understand that there's the possibility that EJ won't make it as an NFL QB. I'm rooting for the guy 100%, but really, it's possible that could happen. Yes I remember the Carolina game, but I also remember the balls he threw into the stands against the Jets. And if that worst-case scenario happens, it would be nice to have the option to fix it next year. Win now, right?

 

If EJ doesn't pan out, we don't "need" our first rounder next year to replace him. If recent drafts with kapnernick, Dalton, Wilson, etc have taught us anything, there are decent qbs in the 2nd rounds, and It is no longer rare.

 

I'm skeptical about the trade myself, but I don t see this cementing we can't draft a QB high next year.

[QCity]

Clearly you're supporting him 100%. Clearly. :lol:

 

With friends like you, who needs enemies?

 

 

If you believe that what I say on this forum has any affect on EJs play, then I have some homoepathic medicine I want to sell you.

 

Even if they didn't trade the pick, they still wouldn't give up on EJ after only 1.5 seasons (baring a catastrophic injury which is possible for any player at any time regardless of injury history). They drafted him with the 16th pick, no organization gives up on that after only 10 games, or two seasons. What you're asking for is for the front office to hedge their bets this draft, play it safe IN CASE they need a QB next year.

 

That's a coward's way to run a team. And thinking like that is what led us to 14 years of NFL irrelevancy. Your posts and ideas about this draft show that you're stuck in the past. You're stuck in the negative nancy way of thinking that this team can't get out of its own way. In the past, you'd be correct, but after ANOTHER solid draft (and that's what we're seeing this week), the new management is showing they are different.

 

So stop being a coward and BE A FAN. That's my advice.

 

Especially in MAY.

 

Being prepared and making astute deals has nothing to do with cowardice, and everything to do with intelligence. We haven't made the playoffs in 14 years because we haven't had a QB. And yes, it IS that simple. If EJ plays 16 games and absolutely flames out and we go 5-11, then I don't feel he deserves to be named the starter for 2015 and he should have to compete for his job. If our staff can't tell what we've got in a QB after 2 years than we need a new staff.

 

Pretending a #1 pick a year or two after the draft is rationalization at its most extreme, too. Every year as I expect you know, about half the first round picks are busts. A star player is worth way more than two good players, and WAY WAY more than a one very good player and one bust. There is every reason to believe that Watkins is going to be a star. He's not your average first round WR who is boom or bust. How you, or anyone, can say that it is obviously way too much is pure folly. It may or may not prove to be too much, but we won't know that for at least 2-3 years.

 

Granted, obviously your opinion is valid, and it's just an opinion. But to state that it is far too much right now, when history suggests that one of your two number ones is not going to pan out, seems quite extreme. I understand you thinking a #9 this year and our #1 whatever it may be is better than one Sammy Watkins. But to just state flat out it's way too much doesnt seem fair.

 

Kelly we have a fundamentally different way of looking at this and I don't think we're going to be able to reach an agreement here. I'm saying we made a bad deal based on current draft value rankings and historical trades (Dion Jordon).

 

Let's say I ask you for change for a $5 bill, and you give me $1 back. I think we can both agree that I got fleeced in that deal. Now, if I go out and buy a lottery ticket with that $1 that wins me $1,000, it doesn't mean I didn't make a terrible deal - it only means I made good use of what I got. I'm not going to run around telling people about that deal, and I'm certainly not going to make that deal in the future.

 

I think the Bills made good use of what they got, and I hope Watkins is that $1,000. But the deal itself is terrible.

Edited May 10, 2014 by QCity

[Kelly the Dog]

Kelly we have a fundamentally different way of looking at this and I don't think we're going to be able to reach an agreement here. I'm saying we made a bad deal based on current draft value rankings and historical trades (Dion Jordon).

 

Let's say I ask you for change for a $5 bill, and you give me $1 back. I think we can both agree that I got fleeced in that deal. Now, if I go out and buy a lottery ticket that wins me $1,000, it doesn't mean I didn't make a terrible deal - it only means I made good use of what I got. I'm not going to run around telling people about that deal, and I'm certainly not going to make that deal in the future.

 

I think the Bills made good use of what they got, and I hope Watkins is that $1,000. But the deal itself is terrible.

We'll just agree to disagree. That $1 analogy is nowhere close to the situation. It's not a lottery ticket gamble, it's a 50-50 gamble.

Edited May 10, 2014 by Kelly the Dog

[1billsfan]

Pretending a #1 pick a year or two after the draft is rationalization at its most extreme, too. Every year as I expect you know, about half the first round picks are busts. A star player is worth way more than two good players, and WAY WAY more than a one very good player and one bust. There is every reason to believe that Watkins is going to be a star. He's not your average first round WR who is boom or bust. How you, or anyone, can say that it is obviously way too much is pure folly. It may or may not prove to be too much, but we won't know that for at least 2-3 years.

 

Granted, obviously your opinion is valid, and it's just an opinion. But to state that it is far too much right now, when history suggests that one of your two number ones is not going to pan out, seems quite extreme. I understand you thinking a #9 this year and our #1 whatever it may be is better than one Sammy Watkins. But to just state flat out it's way too much doesnt seem fair.

 

Not only that, but he's pretending as if Doug isn't essentially on a one year "make it or break it" plan. The Bills owner died and it's obvious to everyone, well I guess until now, that the parameters have seriously changed and our GM is in full "go for it" mode. Why? Because a new owner will not keep Doug around if they don't make the playoffs this year. How anyone can not appreciate the reality of the situation, accept it, and embrace it, is beyond me.

 

It smacks of someone who's very upset because they were hoping that Doug would keep the 2015 first round pick for a QB to replace EJ Manuel which he's already deemed to be a bust. So he should ask himself this question, why would Doug do that when he's clearly on a one year plan?...LOL

Edited May 10, 2014 by 1billsfan

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

 

 

As an example, Watkins was a projected 2nd round pick at this exact time last year.

 

 

As a sophomore? That's like Calvin Johnson territory. Man this kid is going to be a superstar.

 

Cleveland will be kicking themselves for passing on him especially after learning Gordon may be out for the year.

 

 

 

If you believe that what I say on this forum has any affect on EJs play, then I have some homoepathic medicine I want to sell you.

 

 

 

Being prepared and making astute deals has nothing to do with cowardice, and everything to do with intelligence. We haven't made the playoffs in 14 years because we haven't had a QB. And yes, it IS that simple. If EJ plays 16 games and absolutely flames out and we go 5-11, then I don't feel he deserves to be named the starter for 2015 and he should have to compete for his job. If our staff can't tell what we've got in a QB after 2 years than we need a new staff.

 

 

 

Kelly we have a fundamentally different way of looking at this and I don't think we're going to be able to reach an agreement here. I'm saying we made a bad deal based on current draft value rankings and historical trades (Dion Jordon).

 

Let's say I ask you for change for a $5 bill, and you give me $1 back. I think we can both agree that I got fleeced in that deal. Now, if I go out and buy a lottery ticket with that $1 that wins me $1,000, it doesn't mean I didn't make a terrible deal - it only means I made good use of what I got. I'm not going to run around telling people about that deal, and I'm certainly not going to make that deal in the future.

 

I think the Bills made good use of what they got, and I hope Watkins is that $1,000. But the deal itself is terrible.

 

So the argument is the ability to pick the 4th player and their top in this draft wasn't worth an additional first and 4th from next year which could be could be be a 32nd and 128th pick respectively?

 

The pick is worth the player you were able to get with it. Period.

Edited May 10, 2014 by over 20 years of fanhood

[Max997]

First thing I thought when reading that is (no surprise) the Browns drafting has not been good

 

A big key to this trade was not giving up anything else in this years draft except the 9th pick...that was huge IMO

 

I hv no problem giving up next years first in order to get one of the top 3 and prob 2 players in this draft...how often does a team hv the opportunity to do that without finishing with one of worst records in the league?

[K-9]

Can someone please tell me what pick in the 1st round we gave up next year and what position he plays? I'll wait.

 

Thanks.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Haplo848]

I don't get all the people on here demanding that EJ be replaced with our first next year. He has half a year experience under his belt, that's it. He had some games that could imply he's a bust. He's also had some flashes that could imply that with consistency, he could be a top-10 QB, if not better. If he keeps playing like last year (if not improves) with at least flashes of brilliance, I don't see any possible way the Bills use a first round pick next year on a QB, even if they had it.

 

I've also heard people saying that Bills are in a win-now mentality. My response to that: FINALLY! How long has it been since we've had that mentality? Where we genuinely expect to win and are pissed off when we don't? The fact that we made this move will probably signal to the entire team the demand that we win now, and that we expect to win now. There shouldn't be that "lovable loser" mentality, and I doubt it will be allowed any more. The players can either buy into that mentality or buy a ticket out of Buffalo.

 

I don't know which I approve of more, enforcing that win now mentality onto the organization, or the pick itself in that we are most likely getting a true blue-chip player and a #1 WR, someone who I personally expect to become a top-5 player at his position.

 

For all the nay-sayers out there who still think this was a bad trade, and that we gave up too much next year, I have this to say to you. Even if E.J. does end up not being the QB of the future, we are set to provide for the next. We have WRs who, by the time we get another QB, will have the experience and ability to be one of the best receiving cores in the league. With the picks this weekend on our line, Kujo and Richardson, we've shored up the offensive line with good young players who, along with Wood and Glenn, could become one of the better lines in the league. We have one of the better RB tandems in the league. We had a good, aggresive defense last year, and other than the loss of Byrd, it's getting better. I've looked ahead to the people who could become free agents in 2015, and there's no one who cannot be replaced, or would need to be replaced due to retirement, anyways (Jerry Hughes, Fred Jackson, Erik Pears, Brandon Spikes, Searcy, and Easley are the cream of that particular crop). If we do in fact need to replace E.J., that new QB will be surrounded by a young team that still has some experience, and should only be getting better.

[Billsguy]

The Falcons moved up 21 spots -- from 27th to sixth -- to select Jones.

Here is deal that the Falcons swung with the Cleveland Browns for Jones back in 2011:

 

Falcons received:

2011 first-round selection (No. 6; used to select Julio Jones)

 

Browns received:

2011 first-round selection (No. 27; later traded to Kansas City; Browns moved up to No. 21 to select Phil Taylor)

2011 second-round selection (No. 59; used to select Greg Little)

2011 fourth-round selection (No. 124; used to select Owen Marecic)

2012 first-round selection (No. 22; used to select Brandon Weeden)

2012 fourth-round selection (No. 118; later traded to Minnesota)

 

Meanwhile, the Bills moved up five spots on Thursday night to select Watkins:

 

Bills received:

2014 first-round selection (No. 4; used to select Sammy Watkins)

 

Browns received:

2014 first-round selection (No. 9; later traded to Minnesota; Browns moved up to No. 8 to select Justin Gilbert)

2015 first-round selection

2015 fourth-round selection

 

Essentially, the Falcons moved up 16 more spots in the first round than the Bills did, with the difference in the trades being Atlanta's current-year second- and fourth-round selections included in the deal.

I heard the Browns initially wanted this years first and third round picks and next years first ,Whaley called their bluff ( still on the phone with just minutes remaining ) and the rest is history....

We already got next years 4th rounder back in the Stevie Johnson trade to the Niners.

 

Three years later and the Falcons finished 4-12. Oops! There is a price to be paid for giving up future top draft picks just to move up.

[papazoid]

the ONLY way Watkins will be worth two #1's is if he makes the Pro Bowl within three years.

[Buftex]

the ONLY way Watkins will be worth two #1's is if he makes the Pro Bowl within three years.

You do realize, the Bills didn't give up two #1s. Right? Why can't people wrap their heads around the fact that we got a #1 pick which we used to draft SAMMY WATKINS?

[papazoid]

You do realize, the Bills didn't give up two #1s. Right? Why can't people wrap their heads around the fact that we got a #1 pick which we used to draft SAMMY WATKINS?

 

that's funny....I thought one 2014 first round pick and one 2015 first round pick equals TWO first round picks.