RD1, Pick #4: WR Sammy Watkins - Clemson

[Green Lightning]

Sammy Watkins selected No. 4 by Buffalo Bills after trade with Cleveland Browns: http://nfl.si.com/20...2014-nfl-draft/

 

This is what I'm saying. We invested two 1st round picks and a 4th on this guy. So he'd better be great. Not good, great. We now have a group oh shorter wide outs by today's NFL standards. Watkins adds to that. I'd rather we invested less, moved up 2 spots for Evans. He's the piece we needed. I was at the Bills Draft party tonight. Guess next year it will be a brunch.

[DOGNESS]

But he's bang on...There is every indication that EJ is either not an NFL QB/or an injury problem...this leaves the Bills searching for a QB next year with our 2nd rounder?

 

It's a huge push in the chips on EJ gamble

Russel Wilson. Third round. Colin Kaepernick. Second round. Nick Foles. Third round. Ill take my chances on a qb after the first round if EJ doesnt pan out.

 

...sadly, my potential meltdown over getting Beckham at 9 would have been worse.

 

Look, I like Watkins. I really do. I will just REITERATE,

 

Because people SEEM TO FORGET

 

Trading 2 firsts and a 4th for 1 first is risky. I hope to see immediate production. I think that there is chance that production could have achieved with later picks. By giving up less. Or staying, and taking Ebron (who would have been there). So I see zero problem with holding Watkins to that standard.

Weve got so much to lose having missed the playoffs the last fourteen years dont we?

[DallasMac]

 

 

This is what I'm saying. We invested two 1st round picks and a 4th on this guy. So he'd better be great. Not good, great. We now have a group oh shorter wide outs by today's NFL standards. Watkins adds to that. I'd rather we invested less, moved up 2 spots for Evans. He's the piece we needed. I was at the Bills Draft party tonight. Guess next year it will be a brunch.

A single first and a fourth. Not two. We traded first rounders. Why is this so confusing?

[DOGNESS]

This is what I'm saying. We invested two 1st round picks and a 4th on this guy. So he'd better be great. Not good, great. We now have a group oh shorter wide outs by today's NFL standards. Watkins adds to that. I'd rather we invested less, moved up 2 spots for Evans. He's the piece we needed. I was at the Bills Draft party tonight. Guess next year it will be a brunch.

He will be great.

[Perk71]

They got a first round pick this year right? So they didn't trade away a first round pick this year, they moved up 5 slots

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

 

A single first and a fourth. Not two. We traded first rounders. Why is this so confusing?

Now just stop and actually think for a minute. At the start of today's draft, we had a 1st round pick this year, a first round pick next year and a fourth round pick next year. At midnight tonight, we had Watkins, but no longer had any of those three picks.

 

How do you conclude that the Bills invested something other than 2 first round picks and a fourth round pick in Watkins?

[smapdi]

A single first and a fourth. Not two. We traded first rounders. Why is this so confusing?

 

Yea, I don't get the whining about this move. We didn't give up 2 1st's, lol. We traded our 9th for CLE's 4th. It's not rocket science. Giving up next years 1st is well worth it given how deep this draft is. Future draft picks are devalued a round to begin; it's called net present value. A pick today is worth much more then a pick in the future.

 

We gave up a 1st round & 4th round pick in 2015. That's what is cost. Not 2 1st round picks

 

What I really love is the fact they didn't have to give up a single pick in this draft, one of the deepest in years. When everything is said and done, the player we get at 41 will probably be a better prospect then whomever we could get in the 1st next year... that's how deep this draft is. Keeping both of our day 2 picks (2nd and 3rd) was an absolute crucial move for Whaley. We will get another starter at 41 and a very good prospect in the 3rd.

Edited May 9, 2014 by smapdi

[707BillsFan]

Wow, some people just can't grasp the idea w/ swapped #1 draft picks and gave Cleveland two picks next season, thus only losing 2 picks (next year's picks). We still picked in the 1st round...just sooner. Cleveland still picked in the 1st round w/ our pick....just at #8 (after their 2nd trade). That's a wash; a one for one deal. Take those off the board. What's left....those picks for next season we gave them to move up. This thread is so frustrating to read because people just don't get it.

[DallasMac]

Now just stop and actually think for a minute. At the start of today's draft, we had a 1st round pick this year, a first round pick next year and a fourth round pick next year. At midnight tonight, we had Watkins, but no longer had any of those three picks.

 

How do you conclude that the Bills invested something other than 2 first round picks and a fourth round pick in Watkins?

For one of those first rounders we had a return of Sammy Watkins. If we would've given our first in 2016 it would be two first rounders. Not trying to argue.

[John from Riverside]

I don't know much about him so I'd love to be educated, but man, that is a lot of value to give up.

 

Well....its been highly debated that this was the best player in the draft....not the best offensive player but the best PLAYER PERIOD! And the hall of fame Ray Lewis had been banging the table for him for the past 10 minutes before he was drafted.

[mannc]

I am starting to come around to this trade (and pick). I think Watkins will be very good. I just wonder if he will be that much better than Beckham. We'll see.

[DallasMac]

If we moved up and gave up nothing would you say we gave up a first?

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

Wow, some people just can't grasp the idea w/ swapped #1 draft picks and gave Cleveland two picks next season, thus only losing 2 picks (next year's picks). We still picked in the 1st round...just sooner. Cleveland still picked in the 1st round w/ our pick....just at #8 (after their 2nd trade). That's a wash; a one for one deal. Take those off the board. What's left....those picks for next season we gave them to move up. This thread is so frustrating to read because people just don't get it.

We gave up two picks in the trade, and used another one to actually choose Watkins. So the total investment to get Watkins was 2 firsts and a fourth.

[bbb]

This is what I'm saying. We invested two 1st round picks and a 4th on this guy. So he'd better be great. Not good, great. We now have a group oh shorter wide outs by today's NFL standards. Watkins adds to that. I'd rather we invested less, moved up 2 spots for Evans. He's the piece we needed. I was at the Bills Draft party tonight. Guess next year it will be a brunch.

 

Exactly. I was saying all day the only tradeup I wanted was Evans at 7. Did not want to give up next year's first. Even if Watkins is Larry Fitz or Megatron, you still need a QB to win - those guys haven't won too much.

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

If we moved up and gave up nothing would you say we gave up a first?

No, I would say we used a first to get Watkins. We gave up a first next year and fourth next year to get the right to use this year's first on Watkins. That means we now have Watkins, but we no longer have this year's first, next year's first and next year's fourth.

 

Total investment in Watkins = 2 firsts and 1 fourth. Seriously, you can't see that?

[bbb]

Russel Wilson. Third round. Colin Kaepernick. Second round. Nick Foles. Third round. Ill take my chances on a qb after the first round if EJ doesnt pan out.

 

Weve got so much to lose having missed the playoffs the last fourteen years dont we?

 

Arguing with my friends about this, I looked up nfl.com's QB power rankings. Counting Brees as a first rounder since he was pick 32, 4 of the top 5, 9 of the top 12, and 12 of the top 16 are first round picks.

 

So one round vs. the six other rounds and free agents. So probably 1 out of every 8-10 QBs signed are first rounders, but yet they make up 75% of the ones that you need in order to win.

[707BillsFan]

No, I would say we used a first to get Watkins. We gave up a first next year and fourth next year to get the right to use this year's first on Watkins. That means we now have Watkins, but we no longer have this year's first, next year's first and next year's fourth.

 

Total investment in Watkins = 2 firsts and 1 fourth. Seriously, you can't see that?

 

Yes, but Cleveland gave us a 1st Rd pick back in the deal, so just cancel this years 1's out. We are out next years picks only.

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

. . . We are out next years picks only.

So you think we still have this year's first?

[Deranged Rhino]

But he's bang on...There is every indication that EJ is either not an NFL QB/or an injury problem...this leaves the Bills searching for a QB next year with our 2nd rounder?

 

It's a huge push in the chips on EJ gamble

 

Completely disagree that there is "every indication that EJ is not an NFL QB", and I think any objective observer would agree. The guy made plenty of plays last season, enough for me to give him another year before condemning him. Sure, he had injuries -- and there are reasons to be concerned about those, but also reasons not to be as they were "fluky"-- but every player, regardless of their injury history, is one play away from being donezo. So, yes, it is a roll of the dice in a way but not in a significant way.

 

The real gamble was made last year when they took EJ in the first round. That's an investment and it would be foolish to throw it away now -- or worse, hedge your bets this draft in anticipation of needing a new QB next. That's a loser mentality for a team or front office to take (I understand that fans are entitled to feel however the hell they want, they are fanatics for a reason -- so I'm not saying you're a loser). But ask yourself this: if you're so worried about "wasting a first round pick", aren't you essentially wasting last year's first round pick by giving up on him before all the evidence is in?

 

Isn't it better, more inspiring, more compelling if you will, to see the front office double down on their pick from last year and give him every chance to be the franchise QB they drafted him to be? That takes guts, that takes balls. That's what winning franchises do, they protect their investments and give them every chance to be successful.

 

That's what I see what I look at this pick. And damn if it doesn't make me proud to be a Bills fan.

 

It's not a knock against Watkins. By all accounts, he's super talented. But as you saw last year, EJ was incapable of making those safe, easy throws you speak of. His screen passes were atrocious.

 

I just don't think teams like the Bills should be giving up future first round draft picks unless its for a potential franchise QB. Sammy Watkins was not the difference between 6-10 and 10-6 last year. Our receiving group was actually good already.

 

If you think our receiving group "was actually good already" then, brother, you've been a Bills fan for too long. You're been lulled into a state of complacency. This team has lacked a true number 1 WR since Moulds. Yeah... it's been that long. Evans was a #2, Stevie (I like him more than most on here) is better as a #2 than a #1, Woodsy, Goodwin et. al. are all #2s or #3s at best. Yes, there is a ton of young talent there, but what Watkins brings to the field has been missing at the Ralph for years. He's got more talent and upside than all of the WRs on our roster combined. And I say this as a huge fan of Woodsy and his upside.

 

Watkins is going to make every element of the offense better, he's going to make the entire WR corps better, he'll make the pass protection better, he'll make the run game better, he'll make EJ better.

 

And he was the only WR in the draft... no -- he was the only player in the draft who could do all that by himself. To me, that's worth two picks next year.

 

This was a huge win for the Bills. Huge.

 

Spiller+Watkins

 

Clemson TD Connection

 

If you're one of the people who are upset about losing next year's first round pick, consider this:

 

CJ and Watkins are close. The opportunity to play together for 5 seasons might be enough to keep CJ in Buffalo next year and to take a hometown discount. The odds of this go up if the Bills make the playoffs this season -- which clearly the front office is expecting to happen.

 

So, is keeping CJ worth next year's number 1 pick? If you think so, then Watkins is just a bonus. The cherry on top.

 

Damn this was a good move.

[smapdi]

So you think we still have this year's first?

 

No but we got CLE's 1st. How is this so difficult to understand?? We got CLE's #4 and they got #9. So that's a wash. We are out a 2015 1st and 4th

 

You also have to discount those future picks.. Net Present Value. A pick today is worth more then a pick next year. Pretty much lose a round. So instead of giving up our 2nd this year, they gave them their 1st next year (which is worth a 2nd round pick in this draft).

 

I'd much rather have the #41 in this historically deep draft. We get to add another starter whom could be better then the player that would be available in 2015 at our 1st. We also get that player in the system and on the field improving the team immediately.

 

Whaley is smart. I have a feeling that 1st in 2015 is going to be much lower then any recent pick because of the players we will get in the 2nd and 3rd round this year on top of the Superstar WR we just added.

Edited May 9, 2014 by smapdi