Offensive Line Draft picks are more successful

[TPS]

I'm starting to get confused here...

 

I thought the premise was to pick an OT if there are two similarly rated players available (a concept I'm not sure I agree with, but that's what the initial post states).

 

Now we're discussing the possibility o passing on Matthews.

 

Folks, he's very, very, very unlikely to be there at 9.

 

If we're talking about an OT at 9, it's either Lewan or Zack Martin, neither of whom I believe are measurably better than guys like Richardson, Bitonio, Moses, etc that may in fact be available in round 2.

i posted a link to a BBrooks article in another OT thread and he had this to say about Lewan,

Why is he in demand?

The offensive tackle class features three blue-chip prospects -- Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews and Lewan -- at the top of the board. Although the talent difference is negligible between the top three players, there is a stark contrast between the first tier and second tier at the position. Thus, teams entering the draft in desperate need of a franchise-caliber offensive tackle will point to the third-ranked player at the position as the tipping point in the draft. With most observers assuming Robinson and Matthews will come off the board in that order, it's very likely that Lewan's name will be at the top of trade discussions on draft day. The Michigan standout has put together an impressive reel of game tape and ranks as one of the best athletes at the position. Given the importance of finding a blindside blocker with exceptional athleticism and technical skills, the market will certainly bubble up with teams looking to make a play for Lewan.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I'm starting to get confused here...

 

I thought the premise was to pick an OT if there are two similarly rated players available (a concept I'm not sure I agree with, but that's what the initial post states).

 

Now we're discussing the possibility o passing on Matthews.

 

Folks, he's very, very, very unlikely to be there at 9.

 

If we're talking about an OT at 9, it's either Lewan or Zack Martin, neither of whom I believe are measurably better than guys like Richardson, Bitonio, Moses, etc that may in fact be available in round 2.

Not sure who you are talking about drafting instead. FAS lets call it Ebron. He and Lewan have been ranked very closely on anyone of a number of sites.Therefore, the logic stands take the lineman.

[thebandit27]

i posted a link to a BBrooks article in another OT thread and he had this to say about Lewan,

Why is he in demand?

The offensive tackle class features three blue-chip prospects -- Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews and Lewan -- at the top of the board. Although the talent difference is negligible between the top three players, there is a stark contrast between the first tier and second tier at the position. Thus, teams entering the draft in desperate need of a franchise-caliber offensive tackle will point to the third-ranked player at the position as the tipping point in the draft. With most observers assuming Robinson and Matthews will come off the board in that order, it's very likely that Lewan's name will be at the top of trade discussions on draft day. The Michigan standout has put together an impressive reel of game tape and ranks as one of the best athletes at the position. Given the importance of finding a blindside blocker with exceptional athleticism and technical skills, the market will certainly bubble up with teams looking to make a play for Lewan.

 

The reasoning makes sense, and thanks for providing some context.

 

I simply disagree that Lewan belongs in that top tier...I think he's in the same class as the 2nd tier guys.

 

Not sure who you are talking about drafting instead. FAS lets call it Ebron. He and Lewan have been ranked very closely on anyone of a number of sites.Therefore, the logic stands take the lineman.

 

I wouldn't take Ebron that high either.

 

I don't think either of them are elite, which is what I want in the top 10 of this draft; an elite player.

 

I'd rather take Mike Evans or Aaron Donald than either of the guys you mention because I believe they'll be game-changers.

[Rocky Landing]

I haven't done any research in awhile, but another blog got me to thinking-I know it's dangerous! The question I was pondering deals with success early in the draft. Which between an Offensive Lineman or "skill" guy, drafted in the first round, is a better bet? Using Pro Football references draft finder and approximate value the answer is pretty clear. Offensive Lineman drafted in the first 15 picks have produced a career AV of 56 and the skill guys only 45. For those of you unfamiliar with this system, a typical starter's season might be something like this: 1-4 weak starter; 5-9 solid to good starter; 10-14 star player; 15+ all-time great season. The eleven point career difference using this model gives you a pretty good idea that O-Lineman are a better bet. Also, If you carry this out to the top 30 picks, it will yield a similar result. O-Line is 47 on average, skill guys only 36. My conclusion, you on average get 25-30% greater career value by drafting an Offensive Lineman ahead of a Skill guy in round 1. The Bills have a better chance of hitting on their #9 pick by going with an offensive lineman. I am in no way advocating never taking a skill guy or a QB. Your thoughts?

Fascinating thread. The problem with applying this system to draft position, though (if I am interpreting it correctly) is that you are assuming that a skill player, like a WR, will have the same value as an OL with the same rating. Would a WR who reached a 45 not be worth more than an OL who reached 56?

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Fascinating thread. The problem with applying this system to draft position, though (if I am interpreting it correctly) is that you are assuming that a skill player, like a WR, will have the same value as an OL with the same rating. Would a WR who reached a 45 not be worth more than an OL who reached 56?

I I did this pretty quick and dirty. And AV is a rough approximation of value. The system ( not mine), supposedly puts players on an equal playing field. I should create a control group and test that when I have time. I do believe NFL teams believe in this thought process.

[Big C]

OL isn't something you draft in the top 10 unless they are Walter Jones good. The best lines are built mostly of mid-late first rounders and a little later. Lines are a unit. One lineman rarely makes or breaks a team. You draft a gamer changer in the top 10. We need an OT, but not at 9. Trade down or wait.

[The Jokeman]

Mel Kiper feels that Robinson, Matthews and Lewan grade better than all three of the top OTs taken last year who were selected 1st, 2nd and 4th in the draft. Oh and for those who were keeping track two of the three started all season at RT for their respective teams, the only one that didn't was Luke Joeckel who started the year at RT but go hurt in his first start at LT and he only was starting there a days earlier the Jags traded their starting LT to the Ravens. Toss in DJ Fluker (drafted 11th overall) started at RT for the Chargers. Also of note the 49ers and Bengals (two playoff teams from last year) have RTs who were top 10 picks. I think Robinson and Matthews will be gone by pick 9 but expect and hope we take Lewan.

[Kirby Jackson]

Mel Kiper feels that Robinson, Matthews and Lewan grade better than all three of the top OTs taken last year who were selected 1st, 2nd and 4th in the draft. Oh and for those who were keeping track two of the three started all season at RT for their respective teams, the only one that didn't was Luke Joeckel who started the year at RT but go hurt in his first start at LT and he only was starting there a days earlier the Jags traded their starting LT to the Ravens. Toss in DJ Fluker (drafted 11th overall) started at RT for the Chargers. Also of note the 49ers and Bengals (two playoff teams from last year) have RTs who were top 10 picks. I think Robinson and Matthews will be gone by pick 9 but expect and hope we take Lewan.

Fisher and Joekel will both be on the left side this year, Lane Johnson was drafted to block the left handed QBs blindside. Andre Smith plays the right side because he doesn't have the feet to play the left side as they had initially hoped. Fluker is a solid RT and Anthony Davis is good. Fluker and Davis were the only ones drafted to not block the blindside. Edited April 8, 2014 by Kirby Jackson

[The Jokeman]

and who's to say that Lewan won't be playing LT in 2015? We don't know what's going to happen to Cordy Glenn. So to me you get the best talent of O-lineman you can because honestly I am not 100% sold on Chris Williams and the long term status of Urbrik. In terms of Lane Johnson, there was no guarantee Vick was going to start last year so no way Philly knew he was playing the blindside. That said he's playing RT this year to a right handed QB and you know what, he was the 3rd OT selected last year and the Eagles ended up taking the 2nd best TE prospect in the draft year with their first two picks last year. To me it's a good example for the Bills to follow as to me a combination of Lewan + Austin Seferian-Jenkins (or Jace Amaro) > Eric Ebron + Morgan Moses (or Joel Bitonio)

[Solomon Grundy]

My thoughts are in line with yours. I would have no issue if the Bills took an OL at 9, BUT I would prefer that they wait until the 2nd, or 3rd where they can get the likes of Moses, and Jackson. I am also warming to the idea of grabbing a QB in rounds 5 or later.

 

 

Tim-

 

I'd love to get a Tajh Boyd in rd 5 or later. Let him and Tuel duke it out!

[3rdand12]

OL isn't something you draft in the top 10 unless they are Walter Jones good. The best lines are built mostly of mid-late first rounders and a little later. Lines are a unit. One lineman rarely makes or breaks a team. You draft a gamer changer in the top 10. We need an OT, but not at 9. Trade down or wait.

That would be best. Maybe . I consider Matthews and Robinson to be the top O line lineman to come up in a while. That talent is too much to pass up.

Lewan not as much. I would take him but as you mentioned. later with a trade back if one was workable

 

I I did this pretty quick and dirty. And AV is a rough approximation of value. The system ( not mine), supposedly puts players on an equal playing field. I should create a control group and test that when I have time. I do believe NFL teams believe in this thought process.

Good stuff already , thanks .

by the by . Is that your 67 Mustang with posi in the avatar ?

[Solomon Grundy]

Mel Kiper feels that Robinson, Matthews and Lewan grade better than all three of the top OTs taken last year who were selected 1st, 2nd and 4th in the draft. Oh and for those who were keeping track two of the three started all season at RT for their respective teams, the only one that didn't was Luke Joeckel who started the year at RT but go hurt in his first start at LT and he only was starting there a days earlier the Jags traded their starting LT to the Ravens. Toss in DJ Fluker (drafted 11th overall) started at RT for the Chargers. Also of note the 49ers and Bengals (two playoff teams from last year) have RTs who were top 10 picks. I think Robinson and Matthews will be gone by pick 9 but expect and hope we take Lewan.

 

To quote the great Bill Tobin "Who the hell is Mel Kiper"?

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

That would be best. Maybe . I consider Matthews and Robinson to be the top O line lineman to come up in a while. That talent is too much to pass up.

Lewan not as much. I would take him but as you mentioned. later with a trade back if one was workable

 

Good stuff already , thanks .

by the by . Is that your 67 Mustang with posi in the avatar ?

Steve McQueen in Bullitt.

[3rdand12]

Steve McQueen in Bullitt.

68 then ?

Great car guy movie .

Not bad avatar either

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

You got it! The original car chase movie, and he did almost all the driving.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

I would argue that RT is just as important as LT in today's game. The best defenses have 2 great pass rushers & you nneed to be able block both. I'm looking towards building a Superbowl contender.. Not just getting by.

 

Secondly, all 3 of those top OTs have the ability to play LT. What happens if Glenn goes down with an injury? I'd feel a lot better moving over Matthews or Lewan to play LT (your self proclaimed most important position on the line) then some 3rd round RT prospect who *might* just be good enough to play RT.

 

This team isn't just short a single RT for a great line. We need more depth. Another reason to take a guy like Matthews is the fact he can play every single spot on the line. Versatility is a major selling point of the big 3.

 

 

You suggest taking Ebron but I just don't think he makes that big of an impact. Especially after they grabbed Mike Williams. Optimistically, Ebron would catch 50 balls. I don't see this offense airing it out like NO or DEN. We already have a full house of pass catchers with Mike Williams on board. Yes, TE is a need but I'd prefer someone like Niklas out of ND who is a dominating blocker. He should be there for us in the 2nd.

 

Matthews or Lewan will make an impact on every single offensive snap. Matthews started 46 games in the SEC & dominated.

 

 

Give me Matthews @ 9 & then ASJ or Niklas in the 2nd instead of Ebron @ 9 and some significantly less talented OT in the 2nd or 3rd

I wanted Ebron earlier, but it seems he may have been a little overrated early on. Now I think we should go Matthews then Niklas. Though a little raw, I think Niklas is going to be a beast( he's a big boy ).

[BetterNextYearRight?]

Think my skepticism about Matthews is lately the last few "for sure" linemen have been far from being elite just average maybe above average. Eugene Monroe, Jake Long, Eben Britton, etc. Sure its just a uneducated hunch and he is one prospect I admittedly haven't focused on. O-Line is hard for me to judge, be the first to admit it especially when Manziel and Evans are on the same screen.

 

Robinson seems to have the higher ceiling, seen a few Orlando Pace comparisons. If we were to trade up I'm betting it's him.

 

If Matthews becomes a Bill, I'll be fan regardless though.

[Section242]

Think my skepticism about Matthews is lately the last few "for sure" linemen have been far from being elite just average maybe above average. Eugene Monroe, Jake Long, Eben Britton, etc. Sure its just a uneducated hunch and he is one prospect I admittedly haven't focused on. O-Line is hard for me to judge, be the first to admit it especially when Manziel and Evans are on the same screen.

 

Robinson seems to have the higher ceiling, seen a few Orlando Pace comparisons. If we were to trade up I'm betting it's him.

 

If Matthews becomes a Bill, I'll be fan regardless though.

 

If the Bills trade up for an OT I think they're in trouble.

 

Nobody is a "safe," pick. Gallery, Curry, Dorsey were all considered safe picks. If Glenn is hurt the Bills got nobody to replace him just like if one of the WR get hurt or Chandler gets hurt. Mike Williams is a risk just like Chris Williams has been a bad player his career. If one of the WR gets hurt and Graham makes the team and has to play they're in just as much trouble. If Evans is available and Matthews is taken why settle? If Evans is taken and Matthews is available take him.

[Bills Fan of St Augustine]

Ok look we need a RIGHT tackle, we do not need a LEFT tackle. LEFT tackles you take first round, RIGHT Tackles you take later on. We addressed LG in free agency I know fans don't want to hear that but that is what Whaley did. We need a RIGHT tackle and can find a good starter in the 3rd round. If we go RT in round one then I pray medical staff storm the draft room because Whaley and Company had strokes and went flat stupid. I think the Pick is TE = Ebron if he is still there or we will trade down (My choice).

 

The reason you take the left tackle and start him at RT is if Cordy Glenn gets hurt you have LT, if you don't who is your LT if Cordy is hurt? And you know shortly after this happens without a back-up plan your QB(s) goes down next.

 

Ok look we need a RIGHT tackle, we do not need a LEFT tackle. LEFT tackles you take first round, RIGHT Tackles you take later on. We addressed LG in free agency I know fans don't want to hear that but that is what Whaley did. We need a RIGHT tackle and can find a good starter in the 3rd round. If we go RT in round one then I pray medical staff storm the draft room because Whaley and Company had strokes and went flat stupid. I think the Pick is TE = Ebron if he is still there or we will trade down (My choice).

 

The reason you take the left tackle and start him at RT is if Cordy Glenn gets hurt you have LT, if you don't who is your LT if Cordy is hurt? And you know shortly after this happens without a back-up plan your QB(s) goes down next.

Sorry dude. you and yours who keep spewing LT vs RT are dinosaurs. Think into the future, more passing in the league, more specialist pass rushers who come from everywhere, RT vs LT salary gap is closing and will not be meaningful in years to come. We can afford to pay OTs and it would sure be nice to see someone blocking on the Buffalo Bill's offensive line rather than just being offensive. Center and both OT would be set for years to come. If any of you nay sayers who spew forth the vitriol that RTs come on the cheap have ever played a down of ball, then you know the game is won in the trenches. We have studs on the D side, pair them up with the equivalent OL and we are talking dynasty! Control the line and control the game. Skill players are icing and not the cake.

[KOKBILLS]

A little speculation...I'm thinking the Bills realized somehow, someway, that their #1 target, Mike Evans, was not going to get by Tampa...I'm unsure if it was during the Williams inquiries, or before them...If it was before, that could be what led them to asking about Williams...Anyway...The Bills decided to protect themselves with Williams and that likely shifts their attention at #9 to an OT...Murph hinted to this point tonight on his show...It's not hard to see the Bills have shifted gears here a bit...Reading between the lines, it's looking like OT in the 1st...

 

I don't think there is any doubt that either Matthews or Lewan will be available at #9...It seems to be a given that Lewan will be there...I'm guessing Matthews is the Bills preference, but they'll settle for Lewan...I'm still not crazy about Lewan off-the-field...I have serious reservations about him, and I'm a Michigan fan...But on the field I have no doubt he will be a significant upgrade from Pears at RT from day #1...And in time Lewan could be very special...He's got all the tools to be a dominant NFL OT for years to come...From the first day he takes the field in the NFL he will be one of the best athletes at the OT position in the entire league...If he can mature and be a good citizen it's a big get for the Bills...

 

But anyway...I'm expecting the pick at #9 to be an OT now...I would not be at all surprised to see them trade down and take Zack Martin either...I know a lot of folks are assuming Martin moves inside...But he's never played OG...He could start off at RT then eventually move inside down the road if that becomes necessary...I would not bet against Martin though...I think he could be a very effective RT in the NFL...He's just a solid player...