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The Bills are doing an excellent job in Free Agency


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what does graham or sullivan or any reporter have to gain by reporting incorrect info? what do the bills have to gain by releasing incorrect or incomplete info? who is more likely to willfully mislead?

The issue isn't that Graham is lying or that his source is incorrect. Which are both possibility.

The issue is that an average of 7.5 M a year is a meaningless piece of information. If the Bills offered similar guaranteed money 26-30M and similar signing bonus then the Bills were in the same ballpark.

 

I believe Warrow's 30M in the first 3 years. So you're telling me that the Bills offered him 15M over the last 3 years?

That seems dubious. knowing that Berry's 6 year 60M is the benchmark I find it hard to believe the Bills offered 6 years 45M. That is the same as not giving an offer.

 

Again no one has gone public with complete info. Warrow and Graham do not have the complete info but Graham's 7.5M a year number is just kind of meaningless info that doesn't add up.

Edited by Why So Serious?
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Very good break down. Seriously thanks for posting this is the kind of info that raises the discussion. Thank you.

 

Byrd's contract is back loaded contract in terms of cap commitment to the franchise which is why he will not play out this contract.

 

The players always get the signing bonus money upfront so in that regard you can call it front loaded but generally when someone calls a contract backloaded it's from the perspective of the team and their cap cost. At least that's my understanding.

 

If you notice his base salary increases every year. The cap load if he is on the roster increases and the dead money decreases. Meaning they can cut Byrd in 2017 when Brees retires and not have a 30 year old Free Safety that costs 11mil toward the cap. Which I believe Byrd being cut in 3-4 years is an extremely high probability. Byrd might be ok with that because as you pointed out he got over 50% of the contract already (in your terms front loaded.) In 3-4 years Byrd is a free and if he can still perform he can sign a new contract and get those two most important things a signing bonus and guaranteed money. Obviously significantly smaller than his current contract or the numbers that are on paper for 2017-2020 but more than zero.

 

 

 

I don’t know what you mean by “cap commitment to the franchise.” Generally people consider it in one of two ways. The first is by cash alone. The second is by cash.

 

But what you can't do - reasonably, anyway - is look at cap hit but then ignore dead money. That's like saying, "OK, let's look at the good part of the cap consequences of the deal, but let's ignore the bad cap consequences." It gives you a deeply distorted picture.

 

And saying, as you did, "have a 30 year old Free Safety that costs 11mil toward the cap." You're right, he costs $11 million towards the cap. But you're ignoring the fact that if they cut him at that point, he's suddenly $2.2 million in dead money. The cap consequences of cutting him are that you have $8.8 more cap money to spend. Ignore the dead money and you're distorting the picture.

 

And again, There isn't a single year of the contract where you can cut the guy and save more than $9 million. In year six, you would save $9 million exactly. But in no year would you save $11 million. If you did, it might well make sense to cut him. But again, you never would save $11 mill.

 

 

 

That's how the NFL works and why the average salary per year is nonsense in the NFL.

 

Tell that to Jared Allen. He'll tell you you're full of it. Just finished collecting every last cent of his deal after playing out every last game.

 

Sorry, but that's nonsense. If nobody ever played out their contracts, that'd make sense. But hundreds of guys with contracts like Allen's do in fact play out their contracts every year, or re-up with teams happily giving them third contracts on great terms when they think they've got time left.

 

 

 

We're saying the same thing in terms of frontloaded and backloaded just from different perspectives.

 

Still Byrd would make more in Buffalo in the first three years. It is then cheaper for the Bills to keep a 30+ year old (slower) free safety in the last three years of the contract. Which again Byrd may want to get cut and get a 3rd contract if he fills the team won't keep him throughout. (3rd Not counting the franchise year)

 

Look at Nnamdi Asomugha he renegotiated his contracts multiple times and had many contracts each time getting more money in his pockets today and not worrying about what his base salary would be at the end of the contract.

Those numbers are fantasy numbers.

 

Look at Julius Peppers giant contract he didn't play that out. You think Mario is not gonna get cut or reno before 2016? The answer is Yes.

 

There are two things that are most important guaranteed money and signing bonus. The rest is pixie dust and good wishes.

 

BTW the contract expires in March of 2020 ;-)

 

 

We're really NOT saying the same thing with different perspectives.

 

 

You can say that Mario is going to get cut before 2016, if you want. Me, I don’t necessarily see it. Did Jared Allen get cut? If Mario keeps playing at a high level I think it’s very possible the Bills will ask him to re-structure, but if I were Mario, I wouldn’t, and then if I were the Bills - correction, if I were a smart football team - I’d keep him anyway if he was still playing extremely well. If the Bills cut Mario before the 2016 season, they will save $12.9 million, a $19.9 million cap hit minus $7 million in dead money. That’s his salary cap impact if cut.

 

That is in no way the no-brainer you seem to think. Same logic as I used above, if they didn’t think Mario was worth $12.9 mill a season, they wouldn’t have signed him for a $16 mill per season contract.

 

Those are the only two reasonable ways to look at it, either by cash or by Cap Hit minus Dead Money, which is generally called Cap Impact. And in not one of Byrd’s un-guaranteed years is his Cap Impact more than $9 mill a year. His last year, the impact is $9 mill exactly. If his performance has cratered, sure, they could cut him. If he’s still playing well, they’re very likely indeed to keep him.

 

Jared Allen’s average salary number was $12.2 mill. His last year his cap impact was $14.480,612. Now, that’s a back-loaded contract. And yet he was kept, because he’s still playing well and because he still fit the defensive scheme.

 

Byrd isn’t a guy who won’t fit some new defensive scheme the Saints could bring in.

 

Romo’s last two years his cap impact is $22 mill and $20.5 mill on a contract with an average salary of $18 mill. That’s a back-loaded contract. In two of the last three years of Calvin Johnson’s contract the Cap Impact comes to more than the AAV. That’s back-loaded.

 

There’s no evidence whatsoever that Asomugha didn’t worry about the back years of thos contracts. He didn’t see them because he didn’t play well in those different systems. The Bills knew him and knew he fit, how he practices, how he works together with Aaron Williams, etc. The Saints are taking a bit of a risk, a risk the Bills didn’t have to take. But do you really think that after Byrd has beautifully fit four different systems in five years that he’s going to have trouble fitting in in the Crescent City? I don’t. Asomugha was put into a system he didn’t fit. Yeah, in that case the later years don’t matter.

 

But huge numbers of NFL players go beyond and far beyond their guaranteed years. And that puts the lie to the fact that it’s only guaranteed numbers that matter. It isn’t. It just is NOT that simple. It all matters.

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IMHO, it comes down to this: If you don't think Byrd is worth $9 million bucks a year, do you sign him to that contract?

 

Do you sign him to a contract where you have to pay him $27.9 mill over the first three years, $9.3 mill a year, if you don’t think he’s worth $9 million a year?

 

I don’t think you do.

 

And again, there’s not a single year after the first where you pay him more than $9 mill cash. And not a single year after the first where you save more than $9 mill of cap impact by cutting him.

 

If he stays at the same level of play, there’s a good chance he’ll play out that contract or be given a nice re-neg before that last year to keep him around another year or three.

 

Sure, if his level of play drops, you get rid of him.

 

But if you don’t think he’s worth $9 mill a year, you don’t sign him to that contract.

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IMHO, it comes down to this: If you don't think Byrd is worth $9 million bucks a year, do you sign him to that contract?

 

Do you sign him to a contract where you have to pay him $27.9 mill over the first three years, $9.3 mill a year, if you don’t think he’s worth $9 million a year?

 

I don’t think you do.

 

And again, there’s not a single year after the first where you pay him more than $9 mill cash. And not a single year after the first where you save more than $9 mill of cap impact by cutting him.

 

If he stays at the same level of play, there’s a good chance he’ll play out that contract or be given a nice re-neg before that last year to keep him around another year or three.

 

Sure, if his level of play drops, you get rid of him.

 

But if you don’t think he’s worth $9 mill a year, you don’t sign him to that contract.

 

that 9 mil almost covered 2 starters and a very good nickel back [spikes 3.5, graham 4.0 and rivers 2.5]

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I dont know what you mean by cap commitment to the franchise. Generally people consider it in one of two ways. The first is by cash alone. The second is by cash.

 

But what you can't do - reasonably, anyway - is look at cap hit but then ignore dead money. That's like saying, "OK, let's look at the good part of the cap consequences of the deal, but let's ignore the bad cap consequences." It gives you a deeply distorted picture.

 

And saying, as you did, "have a 30 year old Free Safety that costs 11mil toward the cap." You're right, he costs $11 million towards the cap. But you're ignoring the fact that if they cut him at that point, he's suddenly $2.2 million in dead money. The cap consequences of cutting him are that you have $8.8 more cap money to spend. Ignore the dead money and you're distorting the picture.

 

And again, There isn't a single year of the contract where you can cut the guy and save more than $9 million. In year six, you would save $9 million exactly. But in no year would you save $11 million. If you did, it might well make sense to cut him. But again, you never would save $11 mill.

 

 

 

 

 

Tell that to Jared Allen. He'll tell you you're full of it. Just finished collecting every last cent of his deal after playing out every last game.

 

Sorry, but that's nonsense. If nobody ever played out their contracts, that'd make sense. But hundreds of guys with contracts like Allen's do in fact play out their contracts every year, or re-up with teams happily giving them third contracts on great terms when they think they've got time left.

 

 

 

 

 

We're really NOT saying the same thing with different perspectives.

 

 

You can say that Mario is going to get cut before 2016, if you want. Me, I dont necessarily see it. Did Jared Allen get cut? If Mario keeps playing at a high level I think its very possible the Bills will ask him to re-structure, but if I were Mario, I wouldnt, and then if I were the Bills - correction, if I were a smart football team - Id keep him anyway if he was still playing extremely well. If the Bills cut Mario before the 2016 season, they will save $12.9 million, a $19.9 million cap hit minus $7 million in dead money. Thats his salary cap impact if cut.

 

That is in no way the no-brainer you seem to think. Same logic as I used above, if they didnt think Mario was worth $12.9 mill a season, they wouldnt have signed him for a $16 mill per season contract.

 

Those are the only two reasonable ways to look at it, either by cash or by Cap Hit minus Dead Money, which is generally called Cap Impact. And in not one of Byrds un-guaranteed years is his Cap Impact more than $9 mill a year. His last year, the impact is $9 mill exactly. If his performance has cratered, sure, they could cut him. If hes still playing well, theyre very likely indeed to keep him.

 

Jared Allens average salary number was $12.2 mill. His last year his cap impact was $14.480,612. Now, thats a back-loaded contract. And yet he was kept, because hes still playing well and because he still fit the defensive scheme.

 

Byrd isnt a guy who wont fit some new defensive scheme the Saints could bring in.

 

Romos last two years his cap impact is $22 mill and $20.5 mill on a contract with an average salary of $18 mill. Thats a back-loaded contract. In two of the last three years of Calvin Johnsons contract the Cap Impact comes to more than the AAV. Thats back-loaded.

 

Theres no evidence whatsoever that Asomugha didnt worry about the back years of thos contracts. He didnt see them because he didnt play well in those different systems. The Bills knew him and knew he fit, how he practices, how he works together with Aaron Williams, etc. The Saints are taking a bit of a risk, a risk the Bills didnt have to take. But do you really think that after Byrd has beautifully fit four different systems in five years that hes going to have trouble fitting in in the Crescent City? I dont. Asomugha was put into a system he didnt fit. Yeah, in that case the later years dont matter.

 

But huge numbers of NFL players go beyond and far beyond their guaranteed years. And that puts the lie to the fact that its only guaranteed numbers that matter. It isnt. It just is NOT that simple. It all matters.

Of course dead money is important.

In 2017 the New Orleans Saints decide do I want to pay a 30 year old safety 9M and have 11 mil against the cap or do I only want a 2.5 mil cap hit in dead money. It's a real decision that will be dictated by Byrd's play. But they have that decision because the contract is structured that way on purpose.

I don't understand why you think 2 million compared to 11million would compel the saints to keep him. It's pretty easy for a team to eat that 2 mil if Byrd isn't playing at a 1st team all pro level.

 

Secondly if you really believe that NFL teams and NFL players believe that they will pay and play an entire contract like that when they set them up I can't have a discussion with you. NFL FOs negotiate contracts so that players can be cut and minimize cap impact. NFL player's agents negotiators contracts to maximize guaranteed money. Both could care less if the contract is played out or not.

It is Byrd's personal best interest to play well and get cut next year and sign another contract with guaranteed money.

It is the Saints best interest to re-no this contract or cut Byrd by 2018 if he isn't playing at a 1st team all pro level.

Both parties know this right now.

They have no illusions of the reality of NFL contracts.

 

Most Big Money contract do not play out. That is an indisputable fact of the NFL. If you choose to reject that fact you can do that, that doesn't make it any less of a fact.

Edited by Why So Serious?
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I love the Mlb signing yesterday from new england. The report said he was one of the best run stuff MLB in the league that is really nice. I would really like to see Peppers come in at DE opposite Mario. I think since Sammy Watkins is a huge Bills fan I would let every team know that I wont sign with you if you draft me. Waste a pick if you want but I want to play for Buffalo. Draft a RT in the second round.

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what does graham or sullivan or any reporter have to gain by reporting incorrect info? what do the bills have to gain by releasing incorrect or incomplete info? who is more likely to willfully mislead?

When did i say they incorrect info.I said he had an agenda, why did he not release what he would get for every year? ie. 2014, 2015 ect. He released an incomplete report and a generic overview of the contract, to suit his views and article. He is tremendously negative a big switch from earlier in his career.
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I love the Mlb signing yesterday from new england. The report said he was one of the best run stuff MLB in the league that is really nice. I would really like to see Peppers come in at DE opposite Mario. I think since Sammy Watkins is a huge Bills fan I would let every team know that I wont sign with you if you draft me. Waste a pick if you want but I want to play for Buffalo. Draft a RT in the second round.

seems the FO is has clearly and concisely recognized the areas of weakness . Also seem more contract savvy then past years .

I gotta give an A for efforts so far . The big signing is Spikes of course and that s sledgehammer move against the run

Graham is a great aquisition just because.

But none of us can say nay or yea yet.

So I choose to be hopeful for results on the playing field . its ateam sport they say : )

sum of it parts kinda thing

 

Iowa ,

I think Buffalo has a Buttload of freedom now for BPA in the draft now. And thats agood thing indeed.

Edited by 3rdand12
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Since when did we start rounding up the years of no playoffs to 15? 14 years not enough? Getting a head start on next year?

In all fairness, it's been so long I can understand how someone might lose county. ;-)

 

Personally, I'm less concerned with making the playoffs and would be excited just to see a winning season. It's been 9yrs (I believe) since we've even had that! ....Yes, I'll settle for baby steps after the last 2 decades of rebuilding.

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Best part about what the Bills did in FA is it allows them to draft an offensive playmaker with the first pick. Yea, they could always go OL. But I think they go big and look for someone that can help EJ out. And look for a Guard in the 2nd round. Or maybe a RT.

 

I just hope they stay away from Safety. They have bigger needs. Evans or Ebron.

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I'm sick of our history as much as anyone else. Season ticket holder experience etc etc etc But as tired as I am of the losing, I am with Why So Serious.

I'm tired of our fans crapping on our team. Ok we need to see change. WE ARE! You don't like Brandon and I get that. But I do. You may not think the FA moves are a big deal, well maybe now you do! But it is a huge dynamic change and that is on Brandon and Whaley. Started with Buddy, Brandon and Whaley getting Mario and agree or not doesn't matter they DID it!

Marrone, agree or not doesn't matter they DID it. Please give these guys credit where it's due they are trying to change the way it works here. Spikes is a symbol; to me. I don't like him. That really doesn't matter. I didn't like Marshawn either. Or many other Bills for that matter. In the end what matters here is making the playoffs.

We have people in place that are staking their careers on us doing just that. Thanks Russ, Dougies, and Buddy for getting it stared. I think if Whaley has as good a draft as we had last year we are in.

 

So to recap, if you're a hater, fine I'm on kool aid or wearing rose colored glasses and so on, but I'm looking up and am willing to give Whaley/Brandon/Marrone their fair chance. Especially considering the recent past!

I like the direction were going and look forward to the draft even if we don't draft my guy Ebron, I am trusting these guys doing their jobs. They all feel the pressure of that I am sure and it helps me to know that guys like Whaley who left the Steelers organization, had damn well better get it right or their careers are over. I love that and I respect that. Of course Whitey came here and tried. He tried by putting lipstick on a pig. We are building a foundation I think right now under Whaley. Kudos Doug!

 

Oh a flame o should you feel the need to. I have my glasses on!

All this!! Stop dwelling on 10 years ago when we are finally heading in the right direction.
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We don't need a safety jumbalaya, we drafted 2 of them last year because we planned on Byrd being a cry baby for all 16 games instead of the 6 he missed.

 

If the bills had really planned for Bryd leaving this year they would have traded him to the 49ers last year and got something for him. As far as free agents go we better have good special teams this year because we signed a lot of special teamers too bad we plan on using them as starters

 

I hope were going in the right direction. I hope EJ is the man, but if we are building for our future, why does Fred Jackson get more carries then Spiller and if CJ is not part of our future because he does not fit the system then why not learn from the Byrd mistake of not taking a mid round pick and trade CJ if we are letting him go soon anyways either because he doesnt fit our system or doesnt want to be here.

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If the bills had really planned for Bryd leaving this year they would have traded him to the 49ers last year and got something for him. As far as free agents go we better have good special teams this year because we signed a lot of special teamers too bad we plan on using them as starters

 

Waaaah!

 

They are doing a great job this year in FA, and the draft is coming soon. They have covered their tracks if the O-lineman, linebacker, and DB that they will no doubt draft, don't work out. That's a great way to approach Free Agency.

 

Plus, they have upgraded the Special Teams, which was important.

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I agree special teams is important. I also feel we should draft an O lineman Linebacker and Secondary player, but we just did that in 2009. Of those four players Wood Maybin Byrd and Levitre only one is here 5 years later thats not acceptable. I agree with the idea that you use free agency to back up your drafted players and play as stop gaps, but those drafted players have to be able to play in your system and stay here. Like I said before what is the plan with Spiller before we let him go get something for him that way you dont have to waste a 3rd round pick in 2 years on his replacement and can build on not build to replace. Yes there is a difference!

Edited by i miss marv
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I agree special teams is important. I also feel we should draft an O lineman Linebacker and Secondary player, but we just did that in 2009. Of those four players Wood Maybin Byrd and Levitre only one is here 5 years later thats not acceptable. I agree with the idea that you use free agency to back up your drafted players and play as stop gaps, but those drafted players have to be able to play in your system and stay here. Like I said before what is the plan with Spiller before we let him go get something for him that way you dont have to waste a 3rd round pick in 2 years on his replacement and can build on not build to replace. Yes there is a difference!

 

I can't follow your post.

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All I am saying is that the needs we have in 2014 we drafted in 2009 in the first two rounds (Maybin Levitre and Byrd). If you dont keep the players we draft or draft the right players then you have to get them somewhere else. That could be through trade or free agency or by adding more picks when you realize that a player "doesnt want to be here" so that when a player leaves you can draft his position and add other players. That is how you rebuild a roster. All the Bills have done over the last 10 years is draft a player let him go 4 or 5 years later and have to re draft the same position

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All I am saying is that the needs we have in 2014 we drafted in 2009 in the first two rounds (Maybin Levitre and Byrd). If you dont keep the players we draft or draft the right players then you have to get them somewhere else. That could be through trade or free agency or by adding more picks when you realize that a player "doesnt want to be here" so that when a player leaves you can draft his position and add other players. That is how you rebuild a roster. All the Bills have done over the last 10 years is draft a player let him go 4 or 5 years later and have to re draft the same position

No one likes seeing the roster turnover and letting good players go. Sometimes it can't be helped though without jeopardizing the overall quality of the team. The Bills picked up Graham, Rivers, and Spikes and at worse improved their overall depth and special teams. Byrd didn't want to be here and I think the Bills did pretty well on their "backup plan" if Byrd left. Levitre left for $ 8 million a year with the Titans. The Titans just signed Michael Oher to a ridiculous contract. Levitre is good but he can only play LG. He can't play center or tackle. Do you overpay him or let him go? The Bills did the right thing by letting Levitre go. I'm sure it wasn't easy watching him walk. Where the Bills messed up was overestimating the talent they had at LG and not bringing anyone else in via the draft once Levitre left. This year, the Bills don't have any glaring holes entering the draft. They can get a WR, TE, and OT in their first 3 picks and take BPA after that. This is awesome. They are less likely to reach to fill a need and teams drafting around them will have no idea who or what position the Bills are looking at.

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All I am saying is that the needs we have in 2014 we drafted in 2009 in the first two rounds (Maybin Levitre and Byrd). If you dont keep the players we draft or draft the right players then you have to get them somewhere else. That could be through trade or free agency or by adding more picks when you realize that a player "doesnt want to be here" so that when a player leaves you can draft his position and add other players. That is how you rebuild a roster. All the Bills have done over the last 10 years is draft a player let him go 4 or 5 years later and have to re draft the same position

 

Whining about the past is silly. What are they supposed to do, NOT draft for needs now? The fact that the past draft, by a different GM and Coach didn't turn out, has nothing to do with this year.

 

What I am getting from this is that you want to cry about them not resigning Byrd.

 

It's a constant addition and subtraction, and I think they have made mostly very good moves so far, and we have to see how the draft goes.

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If the bills had really planned for Bryd leaving this year they would have traded him to the 49ers last year and got something for him. As far as free agents go we better have good special teams this year because we signed a lot of special teamers too bad we plan on using them as starters

 

Er....how would we have traded Byrd last year? He was not signed. He was franchised. Despite all the flighty talk on OBD, there is typically not a queue of trade partners lining up to give valuable draft picks or solid players in exchange for a guy who isn't under contract for more than one year (especially one with Parker for an agent, and especially once the deadline for negotiating a multi-year contract had passed)

 

I agree special teams is important. I also feel we should draft an O lineman Linebacker and Secondary player, but we just did that in 2009. Of those four players Wood Maybin Byrd and Levitre only one is here 5 years later thats not acceptable. I agree with the idea that you use free agency to back up your drafted players and play as stop gaps, but those drafted players have to be able to play in your system and stay here. Like I said before what is the plan with Spiller before we let him go get something for him that way you dont have to waste a 3rd round pick in 2 years on his replacement and can build on not build to replace. Yes there is a difference!

 

Punctuation is your friend. It will find Malaysia Flight 370, cause whirled peas, and help folks understand

 

Maybin was a bust. It happens. It happened too much under the management we had then.

Levitre didn't exactly block the lights out as a Titan. Maybe he'll bounce back this year, or maybe the front office knew something

 

Byrd is a loss, no question.

 

If your argument is that we should trade Spiller because not resigning Levitre and Byrd proves we'll never resign anyone so our only path to value from high draft picks is trading them, that's a common theme here, but I don't understand how trading Spiller will preserve us from using a draft pick on his replacement. If he's traded, we'll have to replace him, right?

Edited by Hopeful
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Er....how would we have traded Byrd last year? He was not signed. He was franchised. Despite all the flighty talk on OBD, there is typically not a queue of trade partners lining up to give valuable draft picks or solid players in exchange for a guy who isn't under contract for more than one year (especially one with Parker for an agent, and especially once the deadline for negotiating a multi-year contract had passed)

 

 

 

Punctuation is your friend. It will find Malaysia Flight 370, cause whirled peas, and help folks understand

 

Maybin was a bust. It happens. It happened too much under the management we had then.

Levitre didn't exactly block the lights out as a Titan. Maybe he'll bounce back this year, or maybe the front office knew something

 

Byrd is a loss, no question.

 

If your argument is that we should trade Spiller because not resigning Levitre and Byrd proves we'll never resign anyone so our only path to value from high draft picks is trading them, that's a common theme here, but I don't understand how trading Spiller will preserve us from using a draft pick on his replacement. If he's traded, we'll have to replace him, right?

good post as always Hopeful, i would suggest we should hsve not tagged him last year and tried to trade him then. I do realize that may have caused a fan revolt and we maynot have found a partner but we drafted to replace him and picked up Leonard anyway and then got nothing..... you have to get something out the door. I hope the fo learns from this, we hwve seen it time and time again.

 

 

I don't think we'll lose Spiller and hope his phone is ringing for renogiation or they decieded his fate already (I do hope they keep him). Now is the time to do those things IMO, not later or even later yet.

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