JohnC Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I've definitely seen indications that Nix is a dogmatic thinker but I think he's slowly evolving, due to the graphic nature of his mistakes. His comments about drafting a quarterback these days are in sharp contrast to his comments when he was hired. His comments about trading in the draft have also tempered somewhat. I think Nix has made enough mistakes that he's been forced to re-evaluate some of his core beliefs. Hopefully he can continue to do well what he does well and improves on those things that he does poorly. Instead of hoping that the 73 yr. old GM has evolved into a more sophisticated and modern GM wouldn't it make more sense to install somene at the most critical position of an franchise who you already know has a more enlightened grasp of the position? Keeping Nix on the job is a testament to why this backwater franchise has struggled for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biggerdaddynj Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Alexander is a restricted FA. It was expected he would be tendered at a 1st or 2nd round pick. Which would have been rich when considering the salary he will also demand. They have now tendered him at original pick tender and since he was an unsigned rookie they get no picks. So, this begs the question--why would they do that? From what I've read they must have a concern about his knees. That means other teams should be too. Should we risk big $$ on someone who might be out more than he plays? I don't think we have the cap space to take the risk-too many holes to fill. That said, if he were to be cleared by the medical staff it might be worth a shot (though we might merely end up negotiating for SD)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 This makes Jimmy Spags look like a genius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I think this notion is kind of misplaced when looking at the league as a whole. For instance, in 2010, only 8 of 32 first-round picks hailed from schools that cannot be considered in the south. They were: Tyson Alualu - Jax (10) Anthony Davis - SF (11) Brandon Graham - Phi (13) Mike Iupati - SF (17) Bryan Bulaga - GB (23) Devin McCourty - NE (27) Jared Odrick - Mia (28) Kyle Wilson - NYJ (29) 2011 was a bit more balanced, with 12 non-southern players picked in round 1: Jake Locker - Ten (8) JJ Watt - Hou (11) Ryan Kerrigan - Was (16) Nate Solder - NE (17) Corey Liuget - SD (18) Adrian Clayborn - TB (20) Anthony Castonzo - Ind (22) Cam Jordan - NO (24) Jon Baldwin - KC (26) Jimmy Smith - Bal (27) Gabe Carimi - Chi (29) Cam Heyward - Pit (31) Still though, that's just over 1/3 of the first round. 2012 was very similar to 2011, with 11 non-southern players in round 1: Andrew Luck - Ind (1) Michael Floyd - Ari (13) Shea McClellin - Chi (19) Chandler Jones - NE (21) Reilly Reiff - Det (23) David Decastro - Pit (24) Whitney Mercilus - Hou (26) Kevin Zeitler - Cin (27) Harrison Smith - Min (29) AJ Jenkins - SF (30) Doug Martin - TB (31) So, during Nix's tenure, looking exclusively at the first-round, only 31 of the 96 players drafted (less than 1/3) came from schools outside of the south. Even more revealing may be the fact that only 2 of the 30 top-ten picks came from non-southern schools (Luck and Locker). So, while it may be valid to criticize Nix for being limited in his approach, it's not without some perspective with regard to quality of college performance. All the above said, realize that these numbers only apply to the first round. I don't really have the time to delve much deeper, but I can give the 2nd round figures as well (albeit in much less detail)... 2010 - 11 of 32 from non-southern schools 2011 - 13 of 32 from non-southern schools 2012 - 15 of 31 from non-southern schools Feel free to analyze, digest, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Wouldn't it really be "for Christ's sake?" /piling on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 F up. http://youtu.be/BF5-vkBwbZg Whack a mole. The 384 limit is just too, too low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Instead of hoping that the 73 yr. old GM has evolved into a more sophisticated and modern GM wouldn't it make more sense to install somene at the most critical position of an franchise who you already know has a more enlightened grasp of the position? Keeping Nix on the job is a testament to why this backwater franchise has struggled for so long. I don't think that it's his age per se, but that he got his first GM job at 70 with very little prior front office experience. Tough place for on the job training for a guy who's set in his ways. I think this notion is kind of misplaced when looking at the league as a whole. ...... All the above said, realize that these numbers only apply to the first round. I don't really have the time to delve much deeper, but I can give the 2nd round figures as well (albeit in much less detail)... ..... Feel free to analyze, digest, etc. The OP admits that the South has better overall players and there should be a bias there. But taking 0 picks from non-South schools prior to round 4, when NFL consensus is that 1/4 of players come from non-South in round 1, and picking 15% overall non-South, when the total for NFL goes over 1/3 means that you're excluding some good players from consideration. In the vein of the new analytics that are supposed to govern this team's personnel moves, that backward looking data merits a firing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSBill Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 chill dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Has FA even started yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snorom Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 SD will match..... They are going to let the market dictate his compensation, so unless we massively overpay SD is not letting him walk. EVERYONE KNOWS THIS Not to mention the guy hasn't played a full season yet and has knee issues to be concerned about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KGun12TD Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I came into this thread ready to do some verbal smacking around. But I see that TBD has it handled. Carry on gentlemen. Ha ha ha ha ha - Thanks for this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I don't think that it's his age per se, but that he got his first GM job at 70 with very little prior front office experience. Tough place for on the job training for a guy who's set in his ways. Regardless of age he was ill-suited for the job. Flexibility and creativity were not part of his makeup. Ralph Wilson stayed within his comfort zone with the Nix hire. The results were very predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 (edited) I think this notion is kind of misplaced when looking at the league as a whole. ....... 2010 - 11 of 32 from non-southern schools 2011 - 13 of 32 from non-southern schools 2012 - 15 of 31 from non-southern schools Feel free to analyze, digest, etc. Mathematically.....based upon the numbers you have just given.....there would be a 20% chance that any given team would pick 3 1st rounders in a row from a Southern school. This is not bad at all......that would mean that on average there would be 6.4 teams that did it. The OP mentioned however that the Bills picked a Southern school player for each of the first 3 rounds in each of the 3 years. As I have no actual numbers, I am going to assume that the odds for picking a Southern school player are roughly the same throughout each round(somebody correct me if it is vastly different). The odds of then of picking a Southern school player in the first 3 rounds in three consecutive years would be......0.8%.....or 1 in 123. This again isn't too far out of the realms of pure chance as on average there is a 1 in 3.8 chance that this would occur for one team in the league(of 32 teams). When you factor in the 4th-7th round picks......14 of 18 selected from Southern schools.......the odds go off the charts. Mathematically it is extremely highly improbable that it would occur. Edited March 12, 2013 by Dibs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I don't think that it's his age per se, but that he got his first GM job at 70 with very little prior front office experience. Tough place for on the job training for a guy who's set in his ways. The OP admits that the South has better overall players and there should be a bias there. But taking 0 picks from non-South schools prior to round 4, when NFL consensus is that 1/4 of players come from non-South in round 1, and picking 15% overall non-South, when the total for NFL goes over 1/3 means that you're excluding some good players from consideration. In the vein of the new analytics that are supposed to govern this team's personnel moves, that backward looking data merits a firing. Mathematically.....based upon the numbers you have just given.....there would be a 20% chance that any given team would pick 3 1st rounders in a row from a Southern school. This is not bad at all......that would mean that on average there would be 6.4 teams that did it. The OP mentioned however that the Bills picked a Southern school player for each of the first 3 rounds in each of the 3 years. As I have no actual numbers, I am going to assume that the odds for picking a Southern school player are roughly the same throughout each round(somebody correct me if it is vastly different). The odds of then of picking a Southern school player in the first 3 rounds in three consecutive years would be......0.8%.....or 1 in 123. This again isn't too far out of the realms of pure chance as on average there is a 1 in 3.8 chance that this would occur for one team in the league(of 32 teams). When you factor in the 4th-7th round picks......14 of 18 selected from Southern schools.......the odds go off the charts. Mathematically it is extremely highly improbable that it would occur. Forgive me gents...my post was not intended to defend Nix for focusing mainly on the South, but rather to provide a backdrop of the NFL trends that might lend some perspective. I agree that a broader approach is required, and I think you'll see it this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPS Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I'd hate to be the northern or western area scouts. Those guys gotta feel unloved. It's a nuanced argument debating the players taken and their respective region. But to exclude a significant area of the nation 3 years in a row is not a coincidence. If you always do what's familiar you'll never know what you're missing. Maybe our Northern and Western scouts are the problem. Maybe THEY suck. When you see a Russell Wilson or Bobby Wagner....stand on the table and scream a little bit. Maybe interrupt Buddy's fishing competition with the SE Scout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 My point is that it seems like he's unwilling to consider non-south guys in the first three rounds generally avoids them in all rounds -- i.e., he has a closed mind about the issue. What are the odds that Nix drafts Tyler Wilson out of Arkansas in the second round? He is a qb I like a lot. He certainly fits the profile. From a SEC school and he has an accent .Maybe Jarvis Jones from Georgia in the first round and then Wilson. Staying within one's comfort zone and still being smart with your picks. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 (edited) Ralph Wilson needed a GM to turn his franchise around (for the umpteenth time since he had a petty blow-up with Polian). He chose a career scout, who had spent his career focusing primarily on one or two conferences, who had never before been a GM. The results have been predictable. Said GM has focused primarily on those same conferences during his drafts, and has demonstrated repeatedly that, while he may be a good scout (i.e., player selector), he knows absolutely nothing about how to build a football team - what positions to prioritize, how to select coaches, how to allocate scarce resources. While he may finally be "changing" his mindset, we've wasted 3 years while he learned on the job. One idiot hired another idiot to run his football team into the ground, and that is what has been accomplished. What are the odds that Nix drafts Tyler Wilson out of Arkansas in the second round? He is a qb I like a lot. He certainly fits the profile. From a SEC school and he has an accent .Maybe Jarvis Jones from Georgia in the first round and then Wilson. Staying within one's comfort zone and still being smart with your picks. LOL Actually this is EXACTLY how I see the draft playing out. Edited March 12, 2013 by Coach Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Forgive me gents...my post was not intended to defend Nix for focusing mainly on the South, but rather to provide a backdrop of the NFL trends that might lend some perspective. I agree that a broader approach is required, and I think you'll see it this year. No....all good! It gave me some actual numbers to crunch to get a rough comparative percentage. (...and between the OP & your post....and other responses in this thread.....I have learned a lot about North/South Football/non-football in this thread. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 the name is dumas.......Danario with an A, lets get his name right if he's that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xsoldier54 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Not just from the south but just one Asian. This. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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