Gil Brandt of NFL.com evaluates College QBs by Numbers

[1billsfan]

I certainly dont agree with passing on every QB in this draft, I think that is just an ignorant way to approach the QB situation. As far as the evaluations go...he over scores Geno Smith, I see Geno as another Pryor....Comparing Nassib and Colt McCoy to each other because of the way they throw the ball....what is wrong with this guy, Nassib has a big gun while McCoy has an efficient pistol....its not even close. And Manual (sp) ummmm, he is not the 2nd best in this draft

 

Nassib's "big gun" is about as strong and accurate as a t-shirt cannon.

[Dibs]

Gil Brandt, one of the great NFL personnel executives of all time.

 

Check him out using analytics at the age of 80.

 

What an amazing guy.

 

 

The formula I used is a fairly accurate predictor of future success, but it's important to note that it's not the be-all, end-all of quarterback evaluation. It's crucial to watch game tape, to see these guys throw in person and to consider other factors, some of which I touched on in my comments about the individual prospects. This list doesn't even necessarily reflect how I would order these players when all those factors are taken into account. It merely represents one way to take stock of the quarterback talent that will be entering the league in 2013.

 

This is what is meant by "layering" analytics over scouting.

 

It's only useful though if there is a point of reference.

Had he shown the numbers for Luck, RG3 & a chunk of other QBs for us to compare this years crop to we would be able to place some sort of weight to the numbers. As it is, that article is quite meaningless IMO.

[shibuya]

Geno smith is very worthy of a top pick.. It gets dicey after that but the Bills just do not have the luxury of waiting till round #2 or #3.

 

When QB's like Gabbert Tannenhill and Locker go in round 1 you can bet he farm 3 or so QB's will be drafted in round 1 again this year

Edited February 13, 2013 by shibuya

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Geno smith is very worthy of a top pick.. It gets dicey after that but the Bills just do not have the luxury of waiting till round #2 or #3.

 

When QB's like Gabbert Tannenhill and Locker go in round 1 you can bet he farm 3 or so QB's will be drafted in round 1 again this year

 

Heath Evans of NFL network says Tannehill is the next Aaron Rodgers.

[purple haze]

I certainly dont agree with passing on every QB in this draft, I think that is just an ignorant way to approach the QB situation. As far as the evaluations go...he over scores Geno Smith, I see Geno as another Pryor....Comparing Nassib and Colt McCoy to each other because of the way they throw the ball....what is wrong with this guy, Nassib has a big gun while McCoy has an efficient pistol....its not even close. And Manual (sp) ummmm, he is not the 2nd best in this draft

 

You are funny. Smith is another Pryor? Yet you get offended when he compares Nassib to McCoy. Smith and Pryor are very different in terms of accuracy. Smith was a much more accurate college QB while having just as much if not more arm strength than Pryor had. Pryor is a much better natural runner. Pryor is much bigger too. Smith hasn't been a diva where Pryor was a bit high maintenance (not a bad kid though). They are not the same QB at all.

 

I would take a QB in round 3. I think we need to address the LB and TE positions. A good TE is a friend of a rookie QB and/or Fitz (ugh). Ideally, we get a FA QB, and someone like Nassib or Dysert in Rd. 3, after taking Dion Jordan (DE/OLB) and the Stanford or ND TE in the 2nd round. A great TE can do wonders for an offense (Heath Miller, Gronk, Hernandez, Gonzolaz, etc.)

 

Bills should take two QB's in this draft if they don't sign one in FA. I think TE comes in FA too. LB, WR comes in draft.

Edited February 13, 2013 by purple haze

[Dibs]

Bills should take two QB's in this draft if they don't sign one in FA. I think TE comes in FA too. LB, WR comes in draft.

 

I'm thinking FA WR myself......but I agree with the guesswork on the rest.

[1billsfan]

Here's a "by the numbers" QB comparison...

 

 

Nassib vs Manuel

 

2012

Nassib had 84 more passing attempts, with 357 more total yards passing than Manuel.

 

2011

Nassib had 114 more passing attempts, with 19 more total yards passing than Manuel.

 

 

That right there, along with their physical sizes, is the difference between a potential back up QB prospect and a potential franchise QB prospect. My gut reaction from the beginning has always been that EJ Manuel has the highest upside due to his size, skill and mental attributes combination than any QB in this draft.

[Baba Booey]

At #8 there is no one QB we should take, at that postion we take Dion Jordan from Oregon. At 6'7 245 the kid is a stud that Williams will take under his wing. The draft is all about the front seven this year. Nassib, Wilson, Manuel, Barkley and even the Tennesse kid Bray will be there in the second. If we waste a #8 pick on a QB this draft nothing has changed from Gaileys regieme and Nix should be fired immediately!!!!!!!!!!!!

[shibuya]

Heath Evans of NFL network says Tannehill is the next Aaron Rodgers.

 

could very well be that. But his college resume at the time made him a bit of reach.. All it does is back up my feeling that there will be 2-3 1st rd QB's drafted, and many of them have better bodies of work then those drafted in 1st rds years prior

 

At #8 there is no one QB we should take, at that postion we take Dion Jordan from Oregon. At 6'7 245 the kid is a stud that Williams will take under his wing. The draft is all about the front seven this year. Nassib, Wilson, Manuel, Barkley and even the Tennesse kid Bray will be there in the second. If we waste a #8 pick on a QB this draft nothing has changed from Gaileys regieme and Nix should be fired immediately!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

everything would of changed if we took a 1st rd QB.

 

you're thought process is the nothing has changed mentality. You have it backwards.

 

 

the only QB worth taking at #8 is Geno Smith, after that it's dicey. Maybe Barkley. if you tell me Geno Smith is not worth the #8 then I give you a big fat eye roll.

 

 

In the same breathe I believe the pickins will be much slimmer when we pick in round 2. Plenty of teams will move on some of the remaining QB's before we get our 2nd round pick

Edited February 13, 2013 by shibuya

[Astrobot]

"One name you won't find in the top five is that of N.C. State product Mike Glennon."

 

Everything Brandt had to say about Glennon, I agree with.

 

"There's no continuity when it comes to accuracy and ball placement."

 

Sounds like the same problem we have with our current QB.

I am not moving Glennon. I am keeping him at #73, which is RD3. Landry Jones is below him at #81 and EJ Manuel is above him at #64. I have moved Nassib above all three, now at #49. I'm buying a foam brick to throw at my TV if we take any QB but Geno Smith at #8. We're #31 on defense, so I hope we ogle a sideline to sideline LB at #8.

[turftoe]

Interesting take by Gil Brandt. We should use Ron Jaworski to consult on avail QB's.

Didn't Jaws love JP Losman when he came out?

[1billsfan]

I am not moving Glennon. I am keeping him at #73, which is RD3. Landry Jones is below him at #81 and EJ Manuel is above him at #64. I have moved Nassib above all three, now at #49. I'm buying a foam brick to throw at my TV if we take any QB but Geno Smith at #8. We're #31 on defense, so I hope we ogle a sideline to sideline LB at #8.

 

In what universe is Ryan Nassib a better prospect than EJ Manuel?

 

Manuel: much bigger, taller, faster, more accurate, smarter, athletic, mobile, 4-0 in bowl games and kicked butt at the Senlor bowl.

 

Nassib: short, stocky, slow footed, horribly non accurate past 15 yards, less intelligent, not athletic, not mobile, and completely pooped his pants at the Senior bowl.

 

 

I see fans on this board liking Nassib over Manuel and I shake my head and laugh in disbelief. There's simply no logical explanation for having this viewpoint.

Edited February 14, 2013 by 1billsfan

[hondo in seattle]

Gil Brandt is as old school as they come. The game passed him by 20 years ago.

 

Can you sight me any examples of his accuracy on anything?

 

So, Doc, how has the game passed him by? Can you evaluate talent better than Brandt? Show us.

 

Although he doesn't work for the Cowboys anymore, Brandt still scouts college ball every year, using his connections in the NFL and NCAA to give him insights that we readers may lack. I for one appreciate someone who actually knows the game from the inside - unlike many other journalists.

 

His sabre-metrics type approach has some surprises. Some people have suggested we take Glennon with #8 and Brandt's analysis is cautionary.

[K-9]

The game has passed Gil Brandt by? NFW! The man was the first to bring any kind of analytics to the league when he first computerized the Cowboys' player evaluation processes. He's forgotten more about player evaluation, especially the QB position, than anybody currently working the circuit. Everybody else is just a Brandt wannabe.

 

Most important aspect of QB evaluation: accuracy. Simply because it implies so much about other aspects of a QB's passing game, like turnovers, etc.

 

It's too bad we won't have a chance at the most accurate and pro-ready QB prospect this year. I'm with Astro. Do what we can to improve the worst D in the league.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[BuffaloBill]

Gil Brandt, one of the great NFL personnel executives of all time.

 

Check him out using analytics at the age of 80.

 

What an amazing guy.

 

 

The formula I used is a fairly accurate predictor of future success, but it's important to note that it's not the be-all, end-all of quarterback evaluation. It's crucial to watch game tape, to see these guys throw in person and to consider other factors, some of which I touched on in my comments about the individual prospects. This list doesn't even necessarily reflect how I would order these players when all those factors are taken into account. It merely represents one way to take stock of the quarterback talent that will be entering the league in 2013.

 

This is what is meant by "layering" analytics over scouting.

 

Given the amount of money these guys get paid and the alarming rate at which they fail to meet expectations it is good to be objective in analysis. Having said this the intangibles also matter so it is a very difficult balance.

[Rob's House]

So does anyone have anything on this Minnesota QB, MarQueis Gray that Brandt talked about?

I mentioned him a while back as a potential sleeper at WR. He played both WR & QB in college. He's around 6'4" 250 LB w/ decent speed for a guy his size and moves pretty well. He's a longshot, but might go undrafted and could be interesting in a TE/WR role.

[KeisterHollow]

Seriously? You're kidding right?

 

You do realize Gray was a run 1st, heck almost run-exclusively, QB who was moved to WR his Sr year right? Bray may have some serious holes in his game. But he also may very well be the best pure pocket passer in this Draft...To say the two are equal QB projects is way, way, way out in left field...

 

Yes - I know Bray is a much better prospect. What I meant was that when people talk about Buffalo taking Bray, they usually talk about Bray being a second option - not the guy you select because he's sure to be a good starter, but because he could be really good, if he can harness his talent and be consistent. He's often talked about as the second QB to take, if the Bills were to take one in the first and then maybe one in the 3rd or 4th. In that sense - taking a second QB because he COULD be very good, if his talent pans out and is consistent. Bray, though - he reminds me of Dan Marino, actually, when I watch him pass.

 

The game has passed Gil Brandt by? NFW! The man was the first to bring any kind of analytics to the league when he first computerized the Cowboys' player evaluation processes. He's forgotten more about player evaluation, especially the QB position, than anybody currently working the circuit. Everybody else is just a Brandt wannabe.

 

Most important aspect of QB evaluation: accuracy. Simply because it implies so much about other aspects of a QB's passing game, like turnovers, etc.

 

It's too bad we won't have a chance at the most accurate and pro-ready QB prospect this year. I'm with Astro. Do what we can to improve the worst D in the league.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I think Barkley will prove to be the most pro ready, and also will be very good in the NFL, and I think the Bills might have a shot at him at 8. If so, I just can't see them passing on him. If he and Geno Smith are gone, I'm all for taking a LB/DE hybrid and a QB in the second. Then again, if they took Wilson with the 8 pick I wouldn't mind - as long as they have confidence in him as a franchise type QB.

[The Senator]

I think Barkley will prove to be the most pro ready, and also will be very good in the NFL, and I think the Bills might have a shot at him at 8. If so, I just can't see them passing on him. If he and Geno Smith are gone, I'm all for taking a LB/DE hybrid and a QB in the second. Then again, if they took Wilson with the 8 pick I wouldn't mind - as long as they have confidence in him as a franchise type QB.

 

Several recent mocks show the Rams taking Barkely at #7-overall, just before we pick. I can't believe St. Louis will give up on Sam Bradford, a #1-overall pick, after just 3 seasons - so let's keep our fingers crossed and hope Matt Barkley falls into our lap...

 

A four-year starter and three-time captain, Barkley is probably the most prepared guy in this group in terms of readiness to be an NFL quarterback. There are some questions about his athletic ability; it's going to be interesting to see what he does in the athletic drills at the NFL Scouting Combine. He had a much worse season in 2012 than he did the year before; if I had used his stats from 2011, Barkley would have scored much higher. The question is, will teams get the Barkley of 2011 or the Barkley of 2012? He was also injured at the end of the season. I wouldn't be surprised if, by the time the draft rolls around, he's the second quarterback taken...

 

 

GO BILLSSS!!!!

 

19 and 0 baby!!!!!

[Zona]

The game has passed Gil Brandt by? NFW! The man was the first to bring any kind of analytics to the league when he first computerized the Cowboys' player evaluation processes. He's forgotten more about player evaluation, especially the QB position, than anybody currently working the circuit. Everybody else is just a Brandt wannabe.

 

Most important aspect of QB evaluation: accuracy. Simply because it implies so much about other aspects of a QB's passing game, like turnovers, etc.

 

It's too bad we won't have a chance at the most accurate and pro-ready QB prospect this year. I'm with Astro. Do what we can to improve the worst D in the league.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I disagree with you only a little. I believe that the most important ability for a QB is accuracy like you said. But ONLY if its accompanied by the experience of at least three seasons as the unquestioned starter. Guys have burst onto the scene after having a great season, get drafted high, then suck in the NFL. If they have 3 years starting at a Major school like the SEC, big 10, Pac,10, big 12, then it is far more likely that they can handle the pressure of being an NFL starting QB. Pressure is the one thing nobody talks about. But some guys blow out every year because they cant handle it. I would rather have a guy like Barkley or Smith, then anybody else.

 

Win Percentage, accuracy, and starts are the best way to determine QB play, and they have been for a while. No one year wonders! say that again please, No one year wonders! This method is proven. time and time again. Look back at past drafts, and see all the One Year Wonders who have failed, versus the guy who started and played, and won, and was accurate. THOSE guys did well in the league.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

http://www.nfl.com/c...nuel-score-well

 

Can anyone find an article applying the same metrics to the previous 3-4 draft classes? I'd like to verify this technique against what's gone down in the NFL ie does it predict that Kaepernick is a much much better QB than Blaine Gabbert?