tennesseeboy Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Teo has probably lost a lot of stock as a draft choice after Alabama, but let's see how he does in the combine and after the smoke clears from the championship debacle. I think as of now he is a late first or early second round pick, making him an unlikely choice for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I'm not saying we should draft Teo, and I doubt we will. However, all of these evaluations seem to be based on the notion that players peak at the age of 22. There are plenty of later round guys who got better as they got older. Jared Allen was a 4th round pick. Jesse Armistead was an 8th round pick. Navorro Bowman was a third round pick. Neither Cameron Wake nor James Harrison were even drafted. Greg LLoyd was a sixth round pick. The list goes on. If a guy is smart, has speed, and has athleticism, he has the potential to become better when he gets pro coaching. The questions I'd ask are the following: 1. Is he smart? Does he have good football instincts, meaning does he have the ability to recognize plays quickly and act? 2. Is he fast? 3. Is he strong? 4. How athletic is he, meaning how quick? What's his performance like in the short shuttle and three cone drills? 5. Is he healthy? If you answer positively for all of these, you'll probably end up with a good player. It's worth noting, by the way, that Paul Posluzny, a favorite whipping boy here, has had two terrific seasons in Jacksonville. He has in fact improved. Most teams -- including the Bills -- would be happy to have him as one of their starting linebackers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I was not Judging him on one game per say. However when you look at his body of work who did he do it against. There are many LB in the FCS that probably have great stats and good measurables. But teams will not take them in the firts round because of the level of competition they played against. Now could Te'O had a bad night? Sure. But it could also be he played against supperior talent and was exposed. That is not a risk you take at pick 8 when you can not afford too, and there will be solid guys there to chose from. The Bills are not to deep at any one position. Pick best guy available in the first. And it will not be Te'O. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/09/sports/ncaafootball/manti-teos-draft-stock-tumbled-when-irish-did.html?_r=0 “This was the type of performance that could push him out of the first 32 picks,” said Rob Rang, an N.F.L. Draft analyst for CBSSports.com. Rang added, “Struggling on the biggest stage of his life is not going to help his cause.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cash Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Kidding me? In 4-3 its the most important position. QB of the defense that makes the defensive signal calls, multi-gap responsibility, sideline to sideline run support, slot coverage, blitzing .... Wow. Urlacher, Drafted 9th overall. singletary, 2nd round, 38th overall Zack Thomas, 5th round, 154th overall fletcher, Undrafted in 241 selections Cushing, 15th overall kuechly,etc. etc 9th overall, and isn't it a little early to start calling him a premium player? Carolina's defense wasn't exactly setting the world on fire last year. My point is not that Kuechly sucks. It's that either A.) He hasn't become a premium player yet, or B.) Even having a premium player at MLB doesn't do much for your defense. Absolutely critical to have a premium player there. Obviously having a good MLB, especially in terms of the defensive quarterbacking, is good. But I disagree that it's critical. I'll take Aldon Smith over Patrick Willis 100 times out of 100. Who was the Giants' premium MLB in either of their 2 recent Super Bowl runs? Here's a quick summary of my argument: 1.) I disagree that it's critical to have a premium MLB, but do acknowledge that it's good to have one. 2.) I don't think drafting an interior LB in the top 10 is smart, because most of them don't become premium players (more on that later). I will concede that if your MLB winds up becoming an elite player/defensive quarterback, then that's worth a top 10 pick. 3.) I don't see much evidence that suggests that Manti Te'o will be a transformative player on the level of Ray Lewis, Urlacher, Junior Seau, Singletary, etc. 4.) Therefore, I do not want the Bills to draft Manti Te'o at #8 overall. No prediction on whether they will or not. Lastly, here are the ILB/MLBs drafted in the top half of the first round since 2000. I don't find the list very impressive, but some may disagree. Luke Kuechly Rolando McLain Aaron Curry Brian Cushing Keith Rivers Jerrod Mayo Patrick Willis Lawrence Timmons A.J. Hawk Ernie Sims Derrick Johnson Jonathan Vilma Dan Morgan LaVar Arrington Brian Urlacher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truth on hold Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 (edited) Using how late Thomas was drafted vs the HoF #'s he put just show he should have been drafted a lot earlier. Same with fletcher. Same with Tom Brady. That analysis just points out guys who were under drafted. And giants MLB Blackburn and boley are good not great, if great giants wouldn't so up and down / hit or miss. As for bears, in their prime I'd take urlacher over peppers, and I think peppers is terrific. It's just that he can only impact one side/area of the field whereas the MLB is everywhere. Your list of drafted LBs I find pretty damn impressive and if you did that same kind of analysis on other positions you'd find as many misse (if not more). And if you want to Use panthers as an example of an MLB upgrade not mattering when their defense went from 28th to 10th, during a year their QB regressed, wow I don't know what to say Edited January 9, 2013 by Joe_the_6_pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeteU Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Tao is a bum. He was man handled from the first to last play of the BCS National Championship game. He is a slower version of Poz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDD Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 He looked horrible against a great college team. I would consider drafting him in the 2nd if avaialble but now way at #8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Drafted 9th overall. 2nd round, 38th overall 5th round, 154th overall Undrafted in 241 selections 15th overall 9th overall, and isn't it a little early to start calling him a premium player? Carolina's defense wasn't exactly setting the world on fire last year. My point is not that Kuechly sucks. It's that either A.) He hasn't become a premium player yet, or B.) Even having a premium player at MLB doesn't do much for your defense. Obviously having a good MLB, especially in terms of the defensive quarterbacking, is good. But I disagree that it's critical. I'll take Aldon Smith over Patrick Willis 100 times out of 100. Who was the Giants' premium MLB in either of their 2 recent Super Bowl runs? Here's a quick summary of my argument: 1.) I disagree that it's critical to have a premium MLB, but do acknowledge that it's good to have one. 2.) I don't think drafting an interior LB in the top 10 is smart, because most of them don't become premium players (more on that later). I will concede that if your MLB winds up becoming an elite player/defensive quarterback, then that's worth a top 10 pick. 3.) I don't see much evidence that suggests that Manti Te'o will be a transformative player on the level of Ray Lewis, Urlacher, Junior Seau, Singletary, etc. 4.) Therefore, I do not want the Bills to draft Manti Te'o at #8 overall. No prediction on whether they will or not. Lastly, here are the ILB/MLBs drafted in the top half of the first round since 2000. I don't find the list very impressive, but some may disagree. Luke Kuechly Rolando McLain Aaron Curry Brian Cushing Keith Rivers Jerrod Mayo Patrick Willis Lawrence Timmons A.J. Hawk Ernie Sims Derrick Johnson Jonathan Vilma Dan Morgan LaVar Arrington Brian Urlacher Good post. I'll add that Urlacher, who was definitely worth it, was not an LB in college. He played safety. Tao is a bum. He was man handled from the first to last play of the BCS National Championship game. He is a slower version of Poz. I'm not trying to compare them, but Pozluszny is now one of the better MLBs in football (despite playing for a terrible team). He was excellent both last season and this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Teo has probably lost a lot of stock as a draft choice after Alabama, but let's see how he does in the combine and after the smoke clears from the championship debacle. I think as of now he is a late first or early second round pick, making him an unlikely choice for us. That's not possible. I read here that he might go no. 1 in the whole draft and that we should definitely trade up to get him. And he almost won the Heisman!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Teo has probably lost a lot of stock as a draft choice after Alabama, but let's see how he does in the combine and after the smoke clears from the championship debacle. I think as of now he is a late first or early second round pick, making him an unlikely choice for us. remember when fairley jumped to #2 behind cam after his great championship game. in reality he was in that second tier (likely all along too). thats what just happened to teo, but in the opposite direction (he didnt plummet, as likely scouts had him in that second tier of guys already and though likely disappointed in his play and not making the sharp reads he normally does they were also likely not totally shocked that he was a bit overmatched physically) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I don't have the link anymore, but someone evaluated the overall draft position of each player position for all 32 teams and their 2-deep depth charts. LB (outside of special teams players like kickers) was the lowest as I recall. So, either there are a lot of NFL teams with really bad LB play (like the Bills ) or it is altogether possible to find productive LBs fairly deep into the draft. (BTW, I am kidding a bit; we can logically ignore the first argument, because the numbers reflected the entire NFL and not a sample set of just bad LBs. The fact is that for the NFL as a whole productive LBs are found deep into the draft, and deeper than other positions.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I don't have the link anymore, but someone evaluated the overall draft position of each player position for all 32 teams and their 2-deep depth charts. LB (outside of special teams players like kickers) was the lowest as I recall. So, either there are a lot of NFL teams with really bad LB play (like the Bills ) or it is altogether possible to find productive LBs fairly deep into the draft. (BTW, I am kidding a bit; we can logically ignore the first argument, because the numbers reflected the entire NFL and not a sample set of just bad LBs. The fact is that for the NFL as a whole productive LBs are found deep into the draft, and deeper than other positions.) because on a whole, there are a lot more guys that fit the size and speed requirements to atleast be functional in the role. kind of like rb, safety, wr... around 6 ft, solidly built and quick is kind of a generic athlete build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 because on a whole, there are a lot more guys that fit the size and speed requirements to atleast be functional in the role. kind of like rb, safety, wr... around 6 ft, solidly built and quick is kind of a generic athlete build. yep. I'd compare them most to RBs. To be an elite WR, you need height and extreme speed, and that's not "generic athlete." That's why they go earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 (edited) yep. I'd compare them most to RBs. To be an elite WR, you need height and extreme speed, and that's not "generic athlete." That's why they go earlier. i was referring to the filler wrs that are all over the league, not the crazy elite ones - hence a guy like roosevelt easily replaceable for a TBD easy reference... perimeter players in general tend to fall into that category for their builds, as opposed to the rare bodies that you see on the lines or rush linebackers - the 300lbs guys that are still mobile, the 280 lbs guys that can lay down a great 40.... where the average inside backer tends to be a pretty common skill set physically (comparatively). Edited January 9, 2013 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 i was referring to the filler wrs that are all over the league, not the crazy elite ones - hence a guy like roosevelt easily replaceable for a TBD easy reference... perimeter players in general tend to fall into that category for their builds, as opposed to the rare bodies that you see on the lines or rush linebackers - the 300lbs guys that are still mobile, the 280 lbs guys that can lay down a great 40.... where the average inside backer tends to be a pretty common skill set physically (comparatively). I think that you could say that about any position though. It seems to me that elite WRs are more prized (and rightly so) than elite LBs in the draft. The best LB is going to have average NFL speed and size. As they say, you can't coach size, and you can't coach speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I think that you could say that about any position though. It seems to me that elite WRs are more prized (and rightly so) than elite LBs in the draft. The best LB is going to have average NFL speed and size. As they say, you can't coach size, and you can't coach speed. yea, while i was typing i realized i generalized more than i meant but i went with it. theres a reason though that you see LT, DE/OLB, DTs, those 6'6 WRs that run a 4.3 40, and qbs found at the top of the draft. they are rare skill sets physically (and for qb mentally as well). ILB isnt one of those positions generally, much like possession WRs, rbs, safeties, interior lineman... you can find very effective players in the mid rounds, and there are normally a lot of guys that are interchangeable because its not as rare a body type for the protype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 yea, while i was typing i realized i generalized more than i meant but i went with it. theres a reason though that you see LT, DE/OLB, DTs, those 6'6 WRs that run a 4.3 40, and qbs found at the top of the draft. they are rare skill sets physically (and for qb mentally as well). ILB isnt one of those positions generally, much like possession WRs, rbs, safeties, interior lineman... you can find very effective players in the mid rounds, and there are normally a lot of guys that are interchangeable because its not as rare a body type for the protype. What the data says is that every position on offense and defense has a higher investment on the average overall (ignoring kickers). Teams can and do find great LBs later than other positions. I agree with you that this means LB is less "freakish". You need to find a biggish and strongish guy who can run reasonably fast, has good football instincts, and can tackle. A guy in the 7th round and a guy in the 2nd round maybe near clones of one another in all aspects, but the coaches find the 7th rounder makes fewer mental mistakes despite being a whisker slower running in his underwear on a rubber track. Your LB doesn't have to be 7' tall, run a 4.2 sec 40, weigh 900#, throw a football through the 1 open window on a bullet train from 2 platforms away, or any of those "freak" skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4BillsintheBurgh Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I'll throw my hat in for Ogletree being better also. After watching him against alabama and a couple other teams he looked much better. I'd like to see him on the team but I don't know where his value is. I watched a couple games of Te'o since his supporters are mentioning his body of work and he looks like the same player all year to me, he was just kept a lot cleaner against the likes of michigan and Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 (edited) What the data says is that every position on offense and defense has a higher investment on the average overall (ignoring kickers). Teams can and do find great LBs later than other positions. I agree with you that this means LB is less "freakish". You need to find a biggish and strongish guy who can run reasonably fast, has good football instincts, and can tackle. A guy in the 7th round and a guy in the 2nd round maybe near clones of one another in all aspects, but the coaches find the 7th rounder makes fewer mental mistakes despite being a whisker slower running in his underwear on a rubber track. Your LB doesn't have to be 7' tall, run a 4.2 sec 40, weigh 900#, throw a football through the 1 open window on a bullet train from 2 platforms away, or any of those "freak" skills. exactly. much more succint for my point, as it focused on just lb. Edited January 9, 2013 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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