RD 1, Pick #10: DB Stephon Gilmore - South Carolina

[Búfalo Blanco]

I was curious about this, so I did some research. Here are the 64 projected starting CBs in the NFL for the 2012 season, and the round they were drafted in:

 

Buffalo-Williams 2 Florence 2

Miami-Davis 1 Smith 2

New England-Dowling 2 McCourty 1

New York Jets-Revis 1 Cromartie 1

 

Baltimore-Smith 1 Webb 4

Cincinnati-Hall 1 Newman 1

Cleveland-Haden 1 Brown 3

Pittsburgh-Taylor 3 Brown 3

 

Houston-Joseph 1 Jackson 1

Indianapolis-Thomas 3 Powers 3

Jacksonville-Ross 1 Mathis 2

Tennessee-McCourty 6 Vernor 4

 

Denver-Bailey 1 Porter 2

Kansas City-Flowers 2 Routt 2

Oakland-Spencer 2 Bartell 2

San Diego-Jammer 1 Cason 1

 

Dallas-Carr 3 Claiborne 1

New York-Giants Webster 2 Thomas 2

Philadelphia-Asomugha 1 Rogers-Cromartie 1

Washington-Wilson 2 Hall 1

 

Chicago Jennings-2 Tillman 2

Detroit Houston-2 Berry UDFA

Green Bay-Woodson 1 Williams UDFA

Minnesota-Winfield 1 Cook 2

 

Atlanta-Robinson 1 Grimes UDFA

Carolina-Gamble 1 Munnerlyn 7

New Orleans-Robinson 1 Greer UDFA

Tampa Bay-Talib 1 Barber 3

 

Arizona-Peterson 1 Jefferson UDFA

St. Louis-Finnegan 4 Fletcher 3

San Francisco-Rogers 1 Brown 5

Seattle Sherman-5 Trufant 1

 

27 were drafted in the first round (42%), and another 17 (26.5%) were drafted in the 2nd. That means that over 2/3 of the starting CBs in the league were drafted in the first 2 rounds. Not sure how it compares to other positions (I don't have THAT much time on my hands), but it looks like starting CBs mainly come from the top 2 rounds. Whether or not that changes your perception at all (or whether it should for that matter), is not for me to say.

 

Just thought I'd present the info for those interested.

 

That's some great research... I always knew CB was a high percentage in the first round just from watching and reading the coverage, but that's even higher than I thought. With the way the NFL has become so pass-oriented, its no surprise.

 

I'll be very interested in seeing how Williams and Gilmore progress as starters, considering the uncertainty with McGee, Florence and McKelvin over the next season or two. The nickel defense could be quite formidable if Gilmore develops quickly and McKelvin can step it up finally.

[bills_fan]

Are you nuts?

 

Other than QB, I think you would be hard pressed to find another position where 42% of starters are Round 1, 2/3 are round 1 & 2. That means throughout the history of the league, the guys who do this for a living, not just one football administration with whom you disagree, value CBs at the top of the draft. And because these guys value CBs that high, you're forced into the arms race to get your CBs early as the drop off in talent to later rounds is that big. You may roll the dice that every year you will stumble onto a Greer, but history will prove that you are more likely to get a Donovan and not Jabari.

 

 

You could take a CB every year in the 2nd or 3rd Rounds, I agree with that approach. Just not the 1st, especially in the top 10 when your team has so many other holes. I italicized the really important part of that.

 

LT - not addressed.

More pass rushers - not addressed

LB - not addressed

WR - not addressed

 

Address those then take all the 1st round CBs you want.

 

And you know that the real value lies in not following the herd but in doing the contra move. That applies in almost anything!

 

Glad you threw in that last part because I was about to ask you what spot in the 1st round Glenn went at!

 

So how will you feel if Glenn falls to us at #41? And we get "your" 1st round pick, along with a top tier player for our defense?

 

Can we all just wait until the entire draft, and all 10 of our picks, play out? Or is that too much for Bills fans?

 

I understand he was not picked. If he falls to us at 41 (or we deal up for him, unlikely) I will be ecstatic. And if not, hopefully Martin or Brown proves able. And you are welcome to throw this series of posts at me if Glenn flames out. I like the guy a lot and think when the draft is graded out for real in 3-4 years that Glenn will easily be in the top 15 guys who would go if the draft was held again.

Edited April 27, 2012 by bills_fan

[DrDawkinstein]

You could take a CB every year in the 2nd or 3rd Rounds, I agree with that approach. Just not the 1st, especially in the top 10 when your team has so many other holes. I italicized the really important part of that.

 

LT - not addressed. YET

More pass rushers - not addressed Seriously?

LB - not addressed - YET

WR - not addressed - YET

 

 

Cmon man. We have 5 picks in the top-125. Same as last year when we found 4-5 potential starters across those picks. The draft is far from over.

 

And what you refer to as "so many other holes" means we addressed a hole, and really turns out to be 3-4 remaining needs when you list them. LB even being a spot that can wait until next year. As it stands going into Round 2, we really need a LT and WR. I think Nix and Co. can address that adequately, and then some.

 

Lets just see how it all goes.

[GG]

You could take a CB every year in the 2nd or 3rd Rounds, I agree with that approach. Just not the 1st, especially in the top 10 when your team has so many other holes. I italicized the really important part of that.

 

LT - not addressed.

More pass rushers - not addressed

LB - not addressed

WR - not addressed

 

Address those then take all the 1st round CBs you want.

 

You want all those addressed with one pick before you draft a CB?

 

Bills had a pressing need in these spots - LT, WR, CB, LB. Only one gets to be picked. This has been discussed ad nauseam, but let's recap. Looking at who was available at 10, Gilmore was by far the best available, especially when you need to look at the full construct of the team and see the drop off in talent between the available guys at #10, vs what would be likely available at #41. To me, once the top 9 picks of the draft developed along expected lines, Gilmore was a no brainer. It would have been far worse to reach for OTs at #10, because here they still are in Round 2, while the top CBs are gone.

 

You may argue for a trade up to get Kalil, but Minny would have asked for a king's ransom, which a rebuilding team can't afford to pay.

 

Plus, how can you even say that Bills have a bigger need for pass rushers over CBs? Who's your starting CB tandem in 2013?

[John Adams]

More pass rushers - not addressed

 

 

Here's where you really went off the rails. No team did more to address this during the off-season than the Bills.

 

LT was the biggest need but 2 guys were already gone. What should they do? Take the next tackle even though he's not worth the #10 pick?

 

The Bills have a few needs. They addressed one and now have one less. They should be able to address another one at #10 tonight.

Edited April 27, 2012 by John Adams

[bills_fan]

You want all those addressed with one pick before you draft a CB?

 

Bills had a pressing need in these spots - LT, WR, CB, LB. Only one gets to be picked. This has been discussed ad nauseam, but let's recap. Looking at who was available at 10, Gilmore was by far the best available, especially when you need to look at the full construct of the team and see the drop off in talent between the available guys at #10, vs what would be likely available at #41. To me, once the top 9 picks of the draft developed along expected lines, Gilmore was a no brainer. It would have been far worse to reach for OTs at #10, because here they still are in Round 2, while the top CBs are gone.

 

You may argue for a trade up to get Kalil, but Minny would have asked for a king's ransom, which a rebuilding team can't afford to pay.

 

Plus, how can you even say that Bills have a bigger need for pass rushers over CBs? Who's your starting CB tandem in 2013?

 

Not in one draft, but over the course of a couple. I did not see CB as a pressing need for this season (which is what I think you meant). We have 2 players in McGee and Florence who are decent, a former #11 pick in McLovin and last year's #2 in Williams. They will play off-man to try and jump routes that are rushed because of our pass rush. No man-to-man single coverage is planned. I saw CB as a 3rd round need at best.

 

As for pass rushers...what if Mario goes down? The Giants had Umeyoria go down last year, plugged in JPP and he flourished. When they drafted JPP, the immediate reaction was that the Giants didn't need another DE. Now he's All-Pro. You can never have too many pass rushers. Ingram would have been a great pick.

 

Cmon man. We have 5 picks in the top-125. Same as last year when we found 4-5 potential starters across those picks. The draft is far from over.

 

And what you refer to as "so many other holes" means we addressed a hole, and really turns out to be 3-4 remaining needs when you list them. LB even being a spot that can wait until next year. As it stands going into Round 2, we really need a LT and WR. I think Nix and Co. can address that adequately, and then some.

 

Lets just see how it all goes.

 

Fair point, lets see what happens tonight. Anything beyond Round 3 is usually a bit of a project anyway. The real impact guys are in the top half of the 1st round. Thats why I'd never take a CB there unless I had everything else filled. You can always get lucky in the later rounds (see McGee, Terrence...a CB...LOL!) but its a bit of a crapshoot.

[GG]

Not in one draft, but over the course of a couple. I did not see CB as a pressing need for this season (which is what I think you meant). We have 2 players in McGee and Florence who are decent, a former #11 pick in McLovin and last year's #2 in Williams. They will play off-man to try and jump routes that are rushed because of our pass rush. No man-to-man single coverage is planned. I saw CB as a 3rd round need at best.

 

As for pass rushers...what if Mario goes down? The Giants had Umeyoria go down last year, plugged in JPP and he flourished. When they drafted JPP, the immediate reaction was that the Giants didn't need another DE. Now he's All-Pro. You can never have too many pass rushers. Ingram would have been a great pick.

 

 

 

Fair point, lets see what happens tonight. Anything beyond Round 3 is usually a bit of a project anyway. The real impact guys are in the top half of the 1st round. Thats why I'd never take a CB there unless I had everything else filled. You can always get lucky in the later rounds (see McGee, Terrence...a CB...LOL!) but its a bit of a crapshoot.

 

When was the last time McGee played a full season? When was the last time Florence played at a consistent level? When was the last time McKelvin held on to a starting job? What do you do next year when all three are gone?

 

This is not fantasy football where you get to restock the team every year. My biggest gripe against Nix was that initially he acted and worked like a head scout not a GM. Over the past year, he's been more of a GM, where he has to take a 3-4 year forward look at the roster. And exposing your team to a loss of 3 CBs in one year would be a monumental failure. So if you know that you're adding 2 CBs in the draft, it's crazy not to consider one at the top of the draft, especially when three guys you mentioned above are on a decline.

 

And please stop with the JPP comparison. Giants are a different case, because they knew that Osi had a limited shelf life. JPP was drafted not in case Osi was injured but to groom the replacement. Bills DL is locked up for some time, and you don't draft a player at #10 who's going to compete with a guy you just signed for $100 million. That's plain nutty roster management. Mario is at the start of his contract, Osi is at the end. Big difference.

[bills_fan]

When was the last time McGee played a full season? When was the last time Florence played at a consistent level? When was the last time McKelvin held on to a starting job? What do you do next year when all three are gone?

 

This is not fantasy football where you get to restock the team every year. My biggest gripe against Nix was that initially he acted and worked like a head scout not a GM. Over the past year, he's been more of a GM, where he has to take a 3-4 year forward look at the roster. And exposing your team to a loss of 3 CBs in one year would be a monumental failure. So if you know that you're adding 2 CBs in the draft, it's crazy not to consider one at the top of the draft, especially when three guys you mentioned above are on a decline.

 

And please stop with the JPP comparison. Giants are a different case, because they knew that Osi had a limited shelf life. JPP was drafted not in case Osi was injured but to groom the replacement. Bills DL is locked up for some time, and you don't draft a player at #10 who's going to compete with a guy you just signed for $100 million. That's plain nutty roster management. Mario is at the start of his contract, Osi is at the end. Big difference.

 

I just place a different value on secondary players. I'd only draft front 7 defensive players, OL and QB in the top half of the 1st round. Just a different approach.

[Orton's Arm]

Winfield is a hard hitter, which is fine against the run. But he wasn;t the best cover guy, which is what you have to have if you pick CB in top 10.

You've said this a number of times. But when Winfield became a free agent, he was considered the prize free agent available that year. Both the Jets and Vikings were determined to avoid letting him walk away without signing a contract; and it was considered a coup when the Vikings obtained him over the Jets.

 

The knock on Winfield has traditionally been his lack of interceptions. He's the kind of CB who will deflect the pass, not necessarily intercept it. While he may not have been the world's greatest at intercepting passes, you could leave him on an island against the other team's best WR, and know that that WR would be kept under control.

[Ramius]

I just place a different value on secondary players. I'd only draft front 7 defensive players, OL and QB in the top half of the 1st round. Just a different approach.

 

They you're the one who is behind the curve with regards to how the NFL in its entirety works. The good skill players always go high. Especially in a passing era where in the majority of your defensive snaps, half of your defense is DBs (nickel or dime). CBs are extremely valuable. You're one of the chubby chasers stuck in 70s era football.

Edited April 27, 2012 by Ramius

[QCity]

I just place a different value on secondary players. I'd only draft front 7 defensive players, OL and QB in the top half of the 1st round. Just a different approach.

That approach worked great for the last 20 years, but the game is changing. CB's are worth a fortune now.

 

Anyhow, this board should be a fun read after we take another CB in the 4th or 5th round. Going to be a flood of drive-by posters screaming "JAURON!!!!" lol

[SoFFacet]

I just place a different value on secondary players. I'd only draft front 7 defensive players, OL and QB in the top half of the 1st round. Just a different approach.

 

Getting good players is far more important than following some arbitrary strategy to the letter. Teams that rebuild successfully in the draft do so because they get good players with high frequency regardless of position and pick #, not because they follow rules regarding where you can pick various positions.

 

More importantly, your rule would have led to a terrible pick in this case. All of the LBs, OLs, and QBs available were of terrible value, and DL was not a need. The only even slightly defensible alternative was Floyd, who doesn't fit your arbitrary criteria either.

 

Lastly, if you must insist on some arbitrary draft strategy for the modern NFL, big physical corners are pretty much the most important things to have besides QB and DL atm.

[DefenseWins]

We all know that we have needs at CB, OT, WR, LB and QB... but theres 9 picks to go... Buddy may also be entertaining the notion to bring in Marcus McNeil for a year and draft a kid in rd 2-3-4... Let's watch and see what happens.... so far so good...

[Rico]

Winfield is a hard hitter, which is fine against the run. But he wasn;t the best cover guy, which is what you have to have if you pick CB in top 10.

100% correct. He was average at best against the pass, and abysmal when it came to playmaking skills until he left town. Sorry, Lil Antoine fans.

[FLFan]

Cmon man. We have 5 picks in the top-125. Same as last year when we found 4-5 potential starters across those picks. The draft is far from over.

 

And what you refer to as "so many other holes" means we addressed a hole, and really turns out to be 3-4 remaining needs when you list them. LB even being a spot that can wait until next year. As it stands going into Round 2, we really need a LT and WR. I think Nix and Co. can address that adequately, and then some.

 

Lets just see how it all goes.

Wow - a voice of reason.

[Orton's Arm]

You could take a CB every year in the 2nd or 3rd Rounds, I agree with that approach. Just not the 1st, especially in the top 10 when your team has so many other holes. I italicized the really important part of that.

 

LT - not addressed.

More pass rushers - not addressed

LB - not addressed

WR - not addressed

 

Address those then take all the 1st round CBs you want.

 

And you know that the real value lies in not following the herd but in doing the contra move. That applies in almost anything!

 

 

 

I understand he was not picked. If he falls to us at 41 (or we deal up for him, unlikely) I will be ecstatic. And if not, hopefully Martin or Brown proves able. And you are welcome to throw this series of posts at me if Glenn flames out. I like the guy a lot and think when the draft is graded out for real in 3-4 years that Glenn will easily be in the top 15 guys who would go if the draft was held again.

LT: after Kalil was taken 4th overall, no additional LTs were taken in the first round. (Unless one wants to count Reiff, which is debatable. And even he wasn't taken until the 20s.)

More pass rushers: I agree with you that you can't have too many pass rushers. On the other hand, the Bills' starting DL lineup looks very good. You always want more depth on the DL. But with guys like Kellen Heard on the roster, the Bills already have some quality depth on the DL.

LB: for a defensive player to justify a top-10 selection, he should be able to do one of two things. 1) Rush the passer, or 2) cover a good pass receiver one-on-one. Wannestedt tends not to blitz his LBs, which rules out 1). One wouldn't normally put a LB in one-on-one coverage against a TE, which rules out 2). Besides which, Kuechley was off the board anyway before the Bills picked.

WR: Blackmon was off the board before the Bills picked. Floyd had character concerns, which for Nix made him a non-option in the first round.

 

If you don't have a good #1 CB, you'll be forced to double cover the other team's best WR. A good #1 CB gives you the option of single covering their best WR, thereby freeing up a defender for other uses. That's why Antoine Winfield was so valuable to the defenses of the late '90s Bills.

 

I agree that a strategy of following the herd is typically less optimal than the best available contrarian approach. On the other hand, I don't feel one should adopt a contrarian approach for the sake of being contrarian. One should adopt it due to having formulated a specific picture or vision of that which needs to be achieved. That vision needs to be combined with a disciplined plan about how to achieve that vision. This vision needs to be not just different than the herd's--it needs to be better.

 

If Gilmore is able to single cover the other team's best WR, and keep him under control, and if Gilmore avoids first contract and out, then to me that would justify the 10th overall pick. If you feel differently that's fine. If anything, I welcome you to explain why I'm wrong. If you show me some flaw in my logic, or something I haven't thought of before, or provide data I hadn't previously known, I'm quite open to changing my opinion. If in the past people have found my opinion difficult to change, it's because they attempted to persuade me with unsupported opinions--either their own or those of some perceived authority figure.

[GG]

If in the past people have found my opinion difficult to change, it's because they attempted to persuade me with unsupported opinions--either their own or those of some perceived authority figure.

 

Yeah, that Euclid fellow is totally overrated.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I was curious about this, so I did some research. Here are the 64 projected starting CBs in the NFL for the 2012 season, and the round they were drafted in:

 

Buffalo-Williams 2 Florence 2

Miami-Davis 1 Smith 2

New England-Dowling 2 McCourty 1

New York Jets-Revis 1 Cromartie 1

 

Baltimore-Smith 1 Webb 4

Cincinnati-Hall 1 Newman 1

Cleveland-Haden 1 Brown 3

Pittsburgh-Taylor 3 Brown 3

 

Houston-Joseph 1 Jackson 1

Indianapolis-Thomas 3 Powers 3

Jacksonville-Ross 1 Mathis 2

Tennessee-McCourty 6 Vernor 4

 

Denver-Bailey 1 Porter 2

Kansas City-Flowers 2 Routt 2

Oakland-Spencer 2 Bartell 2

San Diego-Jammer 1 Cason 1

 

Dallas-Carr 3 Claiborne 1

New York-Giants Webster 2 Thomas 2

Philadelphia-Asomugha 1 Rogers-Cromartie 1

Washington-Wilson 2 Hall 1

 

Chicago Jennings-2 Tillman 2

Detroit Houston-2 Berry UDFA

Green Bay-Woodson 1 Williams UDFA

Minnesota-Winfield 1 Cook 2

 

Atlanta-Robinson 1 Grimes UDFA

Carolina-Gamble 1 Munnerlyn 7

New Orleans-Robinson 1 Greer UDFA

Tampa Bay-Talib 1 Barber 3

 

Arizona-Peterson 1 Jefferson UDFA

St. Louis-Finnegan 4 Fletcher 3

San Francisco-Rogers 1 Brown 5

Seattle Sherman-5 Trufant 1

 

27 were drafted in the first round (42%), and another 17 (26.5%) were drafted in the 2nd. That means that over 2/3 of the starting CBs in the league were drafted in the first 2 rounds. Not sure how it compares to other positions (I don't have THAT much time on my hands), but it looks like starting CBs mainly come from the top 2 rounds. Whether or not that changes your perception at all (or whether it should for that matter), is not for me to say.

 

Just thought I'd present the info for those interested.

 

I made this same point earlier in this thread, and you just proved me right (after a lot more work than I did!) Great job!

 

The one other thing (perhaps less empirical) is that corners have one of the easiest learning curves; they can start from day #1. Historically, positions like receiver have one of the steepest curves. A lot of great receivers don't become great until year 3 or 4.

 

I've said this before, but if I were a GM, I'd draft a corner every year in the 1st or 2nd round. Start right away, low bust potential, and otherwise super expensive to get as free agents.

[Rico]

LT: after Kalil was taken 4th overall, no additional LTs were taken in the first round. (Unless one wants to count Reiff, which is debatable. And even he wasn't taken until the 20s.)

More pass rushers: I agree with you that you can't have too many pass rushers. On the other hand, the Bills' starting DL lineup looks very good. You always want more depth on the DL. But with guys like Kellen Heard on the roster, the Bills already have some quality depth on the DL.

LB: for a defensive player to justify a top-10 selection, he should be able to do one of two things. 1) Rush the passer, or 2) cover a good pass receiver one-on-one. Wannestedt tends not to blitz his LBs, which rules out 1). One wouldn't normally put a LB in one-on-one coverage against a TE, which rules out 2). Besides which, Kuechley was off the board anyway before the Bills picked.

WR: Blackmon was off the board before the Bills picked. Floyd had character concerns, which for Nix made him a non-option in the first round.

 

If you don't have a good #1 CB, you'll be forced to double cover the other team's best WR. A good #1 CB gives you the option of single covering their best WR, thereby freeing up a defender for other uses. That's why Antoine Winfield was so valuable to the defenses of the late '90s Bills.

I agree that a strategy of following the herd is typically less optimal than the best available contrarian approach. On the other hand, I don't feel one should adopt a contrarian approach for the sake of being contrarian. One should adopt it due to having formulated a specific picture or vision of that which needs to be achieved. That vision needs to be combined with a disciplined plan about how to achieve that vision. This vision needs to be not just different than the herd's--it needs to be better.

 

If Gilmore is able to single cover the other team's best WR, and keep him under control, and if Gilmore avoids first contract and out, then to me that would justify the 10th overall pick. If you feel differently that's fine. If anything, I welcome you to explain why I'm wrong. If you show me some flaw in my logic, or something I haven't thought of before, or provide data I hadn't previously known, I'm quite open to changing my opinion. If in the past people have found my opinion difficult to change, it's because they attempted to persuade me with unsupported opinions--either their own or those of some perceived authority figure.

Lil Antoine was drafted in 1999 & started 2 games that year. (think Kenny Irvin was hurt...IIRC, he did make a pic against the Titans in the playoffs ... that was about all he did in the 90's ) He became a full-time starter in 2000 after Thomas Smith left town. Nate was drafted in 2001 & ended up starting 11 games... didn't take long for him to CLEARLY become the Bills #1 CB. Lil Antoine didn't come close to being elite until after he left town.

[DrDawkinstein]

You could take a CB every year in the 2nd or 3rd Rounds, I agree with that approach. Just not the 1st, especially in the top 10 when your team has so many other holes. I italicized the really important part of that.

 

LT - not addressed.

More pass rushers - not addressed

LB - not addressed

WR - not addressed

 

Address those then take all the 1st round CBs you want.

 

And you know that the real value lies in not following the herd but in doing the contra move. That applies in almost anything!

 

 

 

I understand he was not picked. If he falls to us at 41 (or we deal up for him, unlikely) I will be ecstatic. And if not, hopefully Martin or Brown proves able. And you are welcome to throw this series of posts at me if Glenn flames out. I like the guy a lot and think when the draft is graded out for real in 3-4 years that Glenn will easily be in the top 15 guys who would go if the draft was held again.

 

 

AND NOW??....