My question on OT Martin.....while he needs some strength

[Kelly the Dog]

I've come to the same conclusion. I was initially high on Martin, but Glenn looks like more of a sure thing who could play multiple spots on the OL from day one.

 

Plus, I gotta believe it would be easier for Glenn to drop 20 pounds and maintain his strength/movement skills than for Martin to maintain the extra 20-30 pounds/add strenghth if his natural playing weight is 280...

Glenn is growing on me, too, as a prospect. The beauty of it is because of the lower rookie salaries, it's not even a huge risk should he not be able to play LT in the NFL. Last years #10 pick was Blaine Gabbert who signed a four year deal for 12 million. Even though it was all guaranteed, like all those #1 deals near the top were, it's not a lot of money (3 mil a year) even for a guard.

 

I think Nix also said a couple days ago there were a couple guys in the draft he liked at LT that others may not like as much, and he could easily have been talking about Glenn (although I suppose it could mean Martin, Adams, Reiff or even Sanders, too). My first thought was that he was talking about Glenn, because Glenn fits a lot of stuff Nix likes. South. Big school. Long time starter with a lot of games against top competition. Versatile. Good character. Etc.

[JohnC]

If the Bills stay put at #10, I'd be strongly opposed to reaching for any player at any position. Reaching is what got the Bills Donte Whitner, Marshawn Lynch, John McCargo, and many of their other disappointments. Assuming Kalil is off the board before #10, my sense is that any LT taken there would be a reach.

 

The best strategy, regardless of need, is not too reach. Sometimes staying true to one's draft board takes a lot of discipline and fortitude. Without a doubt in the long run it is the best approach to take. Nix on more than a few occasions has endorsed that policy. If the Bills don't have the remaining OTs ranked in the top 10-12 and they were determined in garnering an OT with their first pick they should then either trade down. If they can't execute that downward deal then they should stick with their approach of taking the higher ranked player.

 

I'd also be strongly opposed to taking a LB at 10th overall. A LB isn't going to blitz much in Wannestedt's defense; and no LB in the NFL can successfully cover Gronkowski one-on-one. If our LB isn't blitzing, and isn't covering TEs one-on-one, what will he do on pass defense to justify 10th overall?

 

I don't see any LBs in this draft ranked in the top ten, with Kuechly maybe hovering at the borderline. I again go back to the player ranking strategy. If an upper tier LB is on the board and he is ranked where we draft him I have no problem with the selection. If a player such as Ingram, a DE/LB, is there and our scouts have him ranked in the vicinity of 10 then I would be more than happy with the selection.

 

All of this means that if the Bills stay put at 10th overall, it may come down to a choice between a WR and a CB. In the past, the Bills have let their CBs with the best combination of youth + proven accomplishment go first-contract-and-out. If that would be the plan for this CB, then for me that would make CB a non-option. A team should never use its first round pick on a guy expected to go first-contract-and-out!

 

Let's hope that the Wilson/Littman business model had been modified so this franchise has a better chance of competing. Next year and thereafter the Bills will be forced to pay up to 90% of the cap. This organization's first contract and out mentality has crushed this franchise into oblivion and irrelevance. Maybe when one outlasts the actuarial tables one gets the mindset of "what the hell---let's go for it"?

[Reed83HOF]

Glenn is growing on me, too, as a prospect. The beauty of it is because of the lower rookie salaries, it's not even a huge risk should he not be able to play LT in the NFL. Last years #10 pick was Blaine Gabbert who signed a four year deal for 12 million. Even though it was all guaranteed, like all those #1 deals near the top were, it's not a lot of money (3 mil a year) even for a guard.

 

I think Nix also said a couple days ago there were a couple guys in the draft he liked at LT that others may not like as much, and he could easily have been talking about Glenn (although I suppose it could mean Martin, Adams, Reiff or even Sanders, too). My first thought was that he was talking about Glenn, because Glenn fits a lot of stuff Nix likes. South. Big school. Long time starter with a lot of games against top competition. Versatile. Good character. Etc.

 

 

The more I have researched Glenn, for the reasons you give above Kelly - I could really see Glenn being the other LT who can start right away.

 

I always thought Martin figured into our plans, but after his pro day. I just don't see it at #10 at least. Yeah it is just the bench press, but that is really an issue that hurts Martin's chances to have an impact right away. The Bench requires the use of your biceps, triceps, deltoids, lats, pecs, etc...all the upper body muscles that the LT will need to use to hold off a defender. It would take him about a year to add the strength and bulk he needs...As a second round pick I would take him....

 

Glenn sounds like Buddy's prototypical LT...This kid could be a player for us, at #10 as well.

[Lurker]

South. Big school. Long time starter with a lot of games against top competition. Versatile. Good character. Etc.

Yeah, those are Buddy's hot buttons.

 

You can pretty much eliminate guys whenever you read about "potential" rather than "production," or any of the character concerns that prospects may have...

[Tcali]

Yes I would be disappointed with those picks; yes somebody thinks Martin won't turn into a quality starter.

 

The first two days of the Bills draft should go like this:

 

Day One (Round 1, #10 overall) - David Decastro, RG/C/OT, Stanford

Day Two (Round 2, #41 overall) - Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama

Day Two (Round 3, #71 overall) - Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

 

 

 

 

GO BILLSSS!!!!

"I expect to be undefeated...I expect to win every game!" - Chan Gailey

19 and 0 baby!!!!!

i could live with that draft

 

I view Johnathan Martin as a OT who needs to be in a NFL conditioning program...but has all the tools to be a NFL left tackle.....

 

I am trying to figure out in my mind just the way this is all going to go.....

 

 

- The bills may or may not believe Hairston is the answer

- It looks like there will be some quality wide outs available to us in the 2nd round

- Martin IS considered a 1st round LOT.....whether he is a 10th pick LT I am not sure....

- We could in fact use a quality corner as well...but we did extend Mgee and drafted Williams last year...Rogers has some potential...and our pass rush is considerable improved.

- We extended Pears....we are solid and have depth from guard to guard.....Levitre CAN play LT but has short arms and is better at LG

 

 

I am basing all of this on if Nix cannot find a trade down partner...if he can trade down (and we dont get raped in the compensation) that is my obvious first choice....but lets say for sake of arguement that he cannot trade down and HAS to pick at 10.

 

Would folks be upset to see Martin at 10 and a guy like Jeffrey or Sanu at the 2nd pick?

 

i honestly haven't seen the kid play...BUT.. if he has played at a top level then i dont see bad track meet and weight scores being that big of a deal. I don't know how many of you remember the superstars competitions--but a guy named Reggie White didn't do very well at all and that included the weightlifting part.Football strength and football speed and quickness dont necc=combine stats.

[Lurker]

The best strategy, regardless of need, is not too reach.

In every draft, the first 5-6 picks are usually consensus guys that everyone agrees on. After that, team boards are all over the place, so one guy's reach is just another's value pick.

 

The whole Mel Kiper-ization of the draft has been what's caused fans to worry about "oh, that's a reach!" Most team draft boards, I suspect, are pretty fluid right up to the last week, with some guy's that have been over-hyped for months sliding downward and others quitely sliding up under the radar.

 

When a guy the draft guru's peg as the 20-30th best prospect goes at 10-15, they cry "reach!" But if he's a good player that fits a team scheme/need, we should be happy and tell Mel/McShay etc. to pound salt...

[Tcali]

Elsewhere, I have argued that the Bills should strongly consider trading up for Kalil. I'd rather trade away a second to move up for him than stay put to take a WR or CB. You and I are in agreement about the importance of acquiring a long term answer at LT.

 

If the Bills stay put at #10, I'd be strongly opposed to reaching for any player at any position. Reaching is what got the Bills Donte Whitner, Marshawn Lynch, John McCargo, and many of their other disappointments. Assuming Kalil is off the board before #10, my sense is that any LT taken there would be a reach.

 

If the Bills take an interior lineman at 10, then that presumably means they'd be kicking an existing interior OL, like Levitre, out to LT. I don't like any aspect of that plan! Levitre is better-suited for OG than for LT, and 10th overall is way too early for an interior OL! A plan like that wouldn't really solve the Bills' problem at LT, even though we'd be using up the 10th overall pick.

 

I'd also be strongly opposed to taking a LB at 10th overall. A LB isn't going to blitz much in Wannestedt's defense; and no LB in the NFL can successfully cover Gronkowski one-on-one. If our LB isn't blitzing, and isn't covering TEs one-on-one, what will he do on pass defense to justify 10th overall?

 

All of this means that if the Bills stay put at 10th overall, it may come down to a choice between a WR and a CB. In the past, the Bills have let their CBs with the best combination of youth + proven accomplishment go first-contract-and-out. If that would be the plan for this CB, then for me that would make CB a non-option. A team should never use its first round pick on a guy expected to go first-contract-and-out!

 

On the other hand, if the CB could become the next Antoine Winfield, and if he could spend his whole career with the Bills, he could be a very solid addition to the Bills' defense. A defensive line which can consistently get to the QB in 3.5 seconds is great. It becomes even better when paired with a secondary that can consistently force QBs to hold the ball for 4.5 seconds!

 

Your reasons for not taking a LB are ..well...questionable. We have the worst LB core in football. And because you think Wanny doesn't blitz LBs and 'no LB can cover Gronk' you think we should pick a WR or CB at # 10??

The only reason to not take a LB at #10 would be if the value isn't there.And in that case you go O lineman-BPA-priority at tackle but open to Guard--OR even more D line depth.

That gaping hole in the Bills D between the line and the DBs isn't going away without help at LB.Yes--switching to the 4-3 helps.Yes the talent infusion at DL helps.But this was close to the worst D in football before Kyle went out.--And our O line was average at best--helped statistically by Fitz getting rid of the ball and Chan designing plays well(at least early in the seaon).There was often a very good push on our o line-which Chan smartly countered at the beginning of the season.

[1billsfan]

The best strategy, regardless of need, is not too reach. Sometimes staying true to one's draft board takes a lot of discipline and fortitude. Without a doubt in the long run it is the best approach to take. Nix on more than a few occasions has endorsed that policy. If the Bills don't have the remaining OTs ranked in the top 10-12 and they were determined in garnering an OT with their first pick they should then either trade down. If they can't execute that downward deal then they should stick with their approach of taking the higher ranked player.

 

IMO, there are four problems with this draft and where the Bills are selecting that make me think they approach this draft with a loose "BPA" description...

 

Problem #1: The Bills have a lot of money tied up on the defensive front four. Handcuffs Bills BPA philosophy right off the bat since the bulk of BPAs will be DE and DTs at #10.

 

Problem #2: After eliminating "front four" prospects, the players who will most likely be BPA play positions that are clearly not desirable #10 overall draftable positions. Mainly, Kuechly LB and DeCastro OG.

 

Problem #3: There are many players with first round grades that don't have prototype size for the position the Bills would be picking them to play. Mainly, Reiff OT (arm length), Martin OT (bulk) and Wright WR (height)

 

Problem #4: Character concerns. Mainly Floyd WR.

 

 

The Bills are kind of screwed where they are picking in this draft and I would be shocked if they didn't at least try to trade up or down. I'm at the point where I feel that if Nix doesn't trade up or down, then he'll be selecting a player with the prototype size and athleticism to play the position they're drafting the player to play and call him the "PBA" because of that very reason. I've got three players that fit this description... Cordy Glenn LT, Stephon Gilmore CB and the dark horse Stephen Hill WR.

[JohnC]

In every draft, the first 5-6 picks are usually consensus guys that everyone agrees on. After that, team boards are all over the place, so one guy's reach is just another's value pick.

 

The whole Mel Kiper-ization of the draft has been what's caused fans to worry about "oh, that's a reach!" Most team draft boards, I suspect, are pretty fluid right up to the last week, with some guy's that have been over-hyped for months sliding downward and others quitely sliding up under the radar.

 

When a guy the draft guru's peg as the 20-30th best prospect goes at 10-15, they cry "reach!" But if he's a good player that fits a team scheme/need, we should be happy and tell Mel/McShay etc. to pound salt...

 

You have some good points I agree with and some I disagree with. As you smartly noted it doesn't matter what Kiper, McShay or any other TV analysts's board looks like. It is how your own organization develops its own board that counts. It is important that your scouts and the decision-makers are on the same page and follow their own established criteria in ranking players. A lot of teams have different offensive and defensove systems and philosophies. When Kiper or McShay or anyone else ranks a player they can't account for all the variety in the way teams' evaluate players to match their own needs.

 

 

One area where I fundamentally disagree with you is the notion where just prior to the draft prospects shoot up or down the board. Most teams have their boards established fairly early with some tweaking and clarifications made as the draft approaches. What really counts are the game tapes. The combine scores (speed, jumping ability etc) don't factor in the evaluation as much as people think. Although the prospects are groomed for the interview it is still useful because you can get some insights into the player's personality and intelligence.

[JohnC]

IMO, there are four problems with this draft and where the Bills are selecting that make me think they approach this draft with a loose "BPA" description...

 

Problem #1: The Bills have a lot of money tied up on the defensive front four. Handcuffs Bills BPA philosophy right off the bat since the bulk of BPAs will be DE and DTs at #10.

 

Problem #2: After eliminating "front four" prospects, the players who will most likely be BPA play positions that are clearly not desirable #10 overall draftable positions. Mainly, Kuechly LB and DeCastro OG.

 

Problem #3: There are many players with first round grades that don't have prototype size for the position the Bills would be picking them to play. Mainly, Reiff OT (arm length), Martin OT (bulk) and Wright WR (height)

 

Problem #4: Character concerns. Mainly Floyd WR.

 

 

The Bills are kind of screwed where they are picking in this draft and I would be shocked if they didn't at least try to trade up or down. I'm at the point where I feel that if Nix doesn't trade up or down, then he'll be selecting a player with the prototype size and athleticism to play the position they're drafting the player to play and call him the "PBA" because of that very reason. I've got three players that fit this description... Cordy Glenn LT, Stephon Gilmore CB and the dark horse Stephen Hill WR.

 

The BPA concept is not an absolute concept when teams execute that philosophy. Because of the cap you can't overspend too much of it at any one position. If you had a great back on your roster and the top player on the board was also a back it would be foolish to dedicate so much money to that particular position. If Peyton Manning or Tom Brady were in their youthful prime neither the Colts or the Pats would select Luck if they had the first pick. Too much money would be dedicated to the qb position.

 

With respect to LT Cordy Glenn, CB Stephen Gilmore and the dark horse you named in WR Stephen Hill the issue still comes down to where does the scouting department rank these players. If they are ranked in the vicinity of 10-12 then one of them could be taken with our first pick. If all these players are ranked in the vicinity of 17-22 then they won't be selected with the first pick.

 

Nix has not shown a willingness to move up or down in the draft. Cordy Glenn intrigues me in that he fits the mold of the type of O-lineman that Buddy preferes i.e. big and bulky. But I'm not sure that I would select at the 10 spot.

[Kelly the Dog]

One area where I fundamentally disagree with you is the notion where just prior to the draft prospects shoot up or down the board. Most teams have their boards established fairly early with some tweaking and clarifications made as the draft approaches. What really counts are the game tapes. The combine scores (speed, jumping ability etc) don't factor in the evaluation as much as people think. Although the prospects are groomed for the interview it is still useful because you can get some insights into the player's personality and intelligence.

Individual team interviews and personal workouts do, however, cause players to jump up or go down quickly in each team's boards, IMO. And while teams may only draft 3-4 players out of the 30 that come visit them, they still can make a big difference. And I assume as many or more are moved down as move up.

 

I, too, don't think the combine has a huge effect on most players draft position, and even less for the Bills than other teams because Nix still considers himself a scout first and foremost.

[JohnC]

Individual team interviews and personal workouts do, however, cause players to jump up or go down quickly in each team's boards, IMO. And while teams may only draft 3-4 players out of the 30 that come visit them, they still can make a big difference. And I assume as many or more are moved down as move up.

 

I, too, don't think the combine has a huge effect on most players draft position, and even less for the Bills than other teams because Nix still considers himself a scout first and foremost.

 

The interview process is often used to make a determination as to whether the organization wants that type of person working in their organization. A good example of that is that it was widely reported that LB Burfict gave a horrible interview. From what it was reported he blamed his coaches for a lot of his misdeeds and poor play. The interview and background check does determine what type of a person the prospect is more than it determines his playing ability. The game tape illustrates a players playing ability. Another player who needed to have good interviews is CB Janoris Jenkins. He needed to explain why he got booted from the Univ of Fla. and why he has such a chaotic off the field life with babies all over the place. His challenge was to convince teams that he has matured and learned from his mistakes. His football talents are obvious. His maturity was very much in question.

 

Most drafted players are tracked for more than one year. A lot of time goes into putting the draft board together. I just don't buy into the concept that players dramatically shoot up or down the board. I'm not saying it doesn't happen because it certainly does. But for the most part the board is set at a relatively early stage with a lot of cross-checking done afterwards.

[Lurker]

Most drafted players are tracked for more than one year. A lot of time goes into putting the draft board together. I just don't buy into the concept that players dramatically shoot up or down the board. I'm not saying it doesn't happen because it certainly does. But for the most part the board is set at a relatively early stage with a lot of cross-checking done afterwards.

I didn't mean to imply that prospects rated as 3-4th rounders suddenly move up one or two rounds in mid-April. More like a guy that might be rated 20-25 rising into the top half of the draft and vice versa, due to FA signings, team interviews, etc.

 

Drafting basically boils down to trying to sort through a huge amount of intangibles using mostly imperfect information. And then crossing your fingers and knocking on wood for good luck.

 

As you said, the DD that teams perform vs. what the celebrity draftniks do also makes up a large part of the "he's a reach" discussion around many picks.

[Trader]

I view Johnathan Martin as a OT who needs to be in a NFL conditioning program...but has all the tools to be a NFL left tackle.....

 

I am trying to figure out in my mind just the way this is all going to go.....

 

 

- The bills may or may not believe Hairston is the answer

- It looks like there will be some quality wide outs available to us in the 2nd round

- Martin IS considered a 1st round LOT.....whether he is a 10th pick LT I am not sure....

- We could in fact use a quality corner as well...but we did extend Mgee and drafted Williams last year...Rogers has some potential...and our pass rush is considerable improved.

- We extended Pears....we are solid and have depth from guard to guard.....Levitre CAN play LT but has short arms and is better at LG

 

 

I am basing all of this on if Nix cannot find a trade down partner...if he can trade down (and we dont get raped in the compensation) that is my obvious first choice....but lets say for sake of arguement that he cannot trade down and HAS to pick at 10.

 

Would folks be upset to see Martin at 10 and a guy like Jeffrey or Sanu at the 2nd pick?

 

Some guys don't get their max strength until later in thier career. The combine arm strength test is also not the greatest predictor of success for a lot of positions.

[Kelly the Dog]

The interview process is often used to make a determination as to whether the organization wants that type of person working in their organization. A good example of that is that it was widely reported that LB Burfict gave a horrible interview. From what it was reported he blamed his coaches for a lot of his misdeeds and poor play. The interview and background check does determine what type of a person the prospect is more than it determines his playing ability. The game tape illustrates a players playing ability. Another player who needed to have good interviews is CB Janoris Jenkins. He needed to explain why he got booted from the Univ of Fla. and why he has such a chaotic off the field life with babies all over the place. His challenge was to convince teams that he has matured and learned from his mistakes. His football talents are obvious. His maturity was very much in question.

 

Most drafted players are tracked for more than one year. A lot of time goes into putting the draft board together. I just don't buy into the concept that players dramatically shoot up or down the board. I'm not saying it doesn't happen because it certainly does. But for the most part the board is set at a relatively early stage with a lot of cross-checking done afterwards.

I agree for the most part but I would also bet anything the Bills board is not even close to being set right now, and will change significantly based on FA, pro days, and especially the guys they bring in and look at. It's not only interviews but personal workouts. When players do their pro days they usually set the program of what they are going to show off. When a team brings a player in, they can have the player show off the kinds of skills the team wants to see.

 

Plus, I would bet that some players based on their visits may shoot up 10-15 slots on a team's board, either up or down. Yes, the play on game film is the most important aspect (and/or the games the scouts see in person, and Buddy Nix still attends a lot of games in person). But if a guy is a character risk and that hurts his standing amongst the team or scouts, and when the team has that player in person they may just eliminate all character concern following the interview, OR, they may put a lot more weight on it. Football smarts also plays a huge part on certain teams, including the Bills. The interview is often sitting down and watching film and having that player describe duties or whatever in front of the coaches. That can make a player jump up or down quite a bit, too, from something they couldn't get out of game film.

 

There are really a ton of elements that go into a player being drafted and boards change right up until the draft.

[Trader]

I've come to the same conclusion. I was initially high on Martin, but Glenn looks like more of a sure thing who could play multiple spots on the OL from day one.

 

Plus, I gotta believe it would be easier for Glenn to drop 20 pounds and maintain his strength/movement skills than for Martin to maintain the extra 20-30 pounds/add strenghth if his natural playing weight is 280...

 

I like Glen as well but I will defer to Nix on this one since I am far from expert here. Glenn could get beat on the outside speed rush but he is huge and you still have to run around him and his long arms. I think Fitz is agile enough to not get too bothered by an outside rush. All QB's have the most trouble when pressure comes up the middle and they can't step up. I would tell my tackles if they are going to get beat make sure it's outside and not inside.

[Orton's Arm]

Your reasons for not taking a LB are ..well...questionable. We have the worst LB core in football. And because you think Wanny doesn't blitz LBs and 'no LB can cover Gronk' you think we should pick a WR or CB at # 10??

The only reason to not take a LB at #10 would be if the value isn't there.And in that case you go O lineman-BPA-priority at tackle but open to Guard--OR even more D line depth.

That gaping hole in the Bills D between the line and the DBs isn't going away without help at LB.Yes--switching to the 4-3 helps.Yes the talent infusion at DL helps.But this was close to the worst D in football before Kyle went out.--And our O line was average at best--helped statistically by Fitz getting rid of the ball and Chan designing plays well(at least early in the seaon).There was often a very good push on our o line-which Chan smartly countered at the beginning of the season.

First, I dispute that we have the worst LB corps in football. Barnett is a very solid player, and presumably Shepherd will come into his own this year. Bryan Scott fits the mold of what Wannestedt is looking for in his LBs (fast, good coverage, good tackler), and could be moved to LB.

 

But even if the Bills had literally nothing at linebacker, it would not justify reaching for a player at 10th overall. As I mentioned a few posts ago, reaching is what got us Donte Whitner and John McCargo. Levy and Jauron felt they had to have a SS and a DT right away, and that was the best SS/DT combination they could come up with. Adopting the same mentality Levy and Jauron had is a sure way to obtain the same results they did.

 

If you're picking a guy at 10th overall, there had better be a realistic chance for him to justify his draft position! If there isn't, then the GM just wasted his single most valuable asset for the year.

 

According to a regression analysis done by the New York Times, pass defense is four times as important as run defense. This means that, when thinking about any given defender's potential contribution, you have to start by asking what he might contribute to pass defense. A linebacker can contribute to pass defense either by rushing the passer or by dropping back into coverage. Wannestadt doesn't blitz his LBs very often, so any contribution a LB might make there will be minimal. If you have a TE who's good at catching passes, then putting him up against just about any linebacker in the league is going to be a mismatch. Pass catching TEs should be covered by safeties, not linebackers! But not even safeties will always be able to cover TEs, as Donte Whitner has shown us.

 

If a LB isn't going to be blitzing, and isn't going to be in one-on-one coverage against pass catching TEs, then what will he be doing on pass defense to justify tenth overall?

[UpperDeck]

The more I read the more Cordy Glenn does sound like the type of O-lineman Nix likes. Big but with good feet. Here's a few video's to watch to judge for yourself. He looks solid if unspectacular. Not sure if he's worth a #10.

 

 

Edited March 30, 2012 by UpperDeck

[JohnC]

I agree for the most part but I would also bet anything the Bills board is not even close to being set right now, and will change significantly based on FA, pro days, and especially the guys they bring in and look at. It's not only interviews but personal workouts. When players do their pro days they usually set the program of what they are going to show off. When a team brings a player in, they can have the player show off the kinds of skills the team wants to see.

 

Plus, I would bet that some players based on their visits may shoot up 10-15 slots on a team's board, either up or down. Yes, the play on game film is the most important aspect (and/or the games the scouts see in person, and Buddy Nix still attends a lot of games in person). But if a guy is a character risk and that hurts his standing amongst the team or scouts, and when the team has that player in person they may just eliminate all character concern following the interview, OR, they may put a lot more weight on it. Football smarts also plays a huge part on certain teams, including the Bills. The interview is often sitting down and watching film and having that player describe duties or whatever in front of the coaches. That can make a player jump up or down quite a bit, too, from something they couldn't get out of game film.

 

There are really a ton of elements that go into a player being drafted and boards change right up until the draft.

 

Maybe the worst case of the pitfalls of a prospect racing up the board was Eric Flowers, a DE/OLB tweener from Arizona State drafted in 2000. Donte Whitner is another player whose stock was increasing as the draft approached. In both cases the players ratings were raised due to pro day workout performances.

 

Nix is a believer of on the field production. He also is a strong believer that multi-year production and experience gives you the best opportunity in evaluating a player. I'm very sure that he would never have fallen for the one year Maybin burst on the scene exploits.

 

Although our views on the draft process somewhat vary I agree with you in the tremendous amount of work that goes into evaluating players. As it has often been stated it is as much an art as it is a science. In my view the two best talent assessors are the Ravens Ozzie Newsome and the Packers Ted Thompson. The Steelers are as good as any organization in getting players who fit their unique mold.

[LynchMob23]

The more I have researched Glenn, for the reasons you give above Kelly - I could really see Glenn being the other LT who can start right away.

 

I always thought Martin figured into our plans, but after his pro day. I just don't see it at #10 at least. Yeah it is just the bench press, but that is really an issue that hurts Martin's chances to have an impact right away. The Bench requires the use of your biceps, triceps, deltoids, lats, pecs, etc...all the upper body muscles that the LT will need to use to hold off a defender. It would take him about a year to add the strength and bulk he needs...As a second round pick I would take him....

 

Glenn sounds like Buddy's prototypical LT...This kid could be a player for us, at #10 as well.

While the bench is helpful, the biggest thing that helps any offensive lineman is his legs/hips. That's where the power is going to be to sit back in your seat in pass pro and burrow a guy out or reach block him as a run blocker. The bench only helps at the end at times, when you are "Forklifting" at the end of a run to help pancake them. If a lineman has wrestling in their background, their hips especially will help them more than the arm strength.

[1billsfan]

While the bench is helpful, the biggest thing that helps any offensive lineman is his legs/hips. That's where the power is going to be to sit back in your seat in pass pro and burrow a guy out or reach block him as a run blocker. The bench only helps at the end at times, when you are "Forklifting" at the end of a run to help pancake them. If a lineman has wrestling in their background, their hips especially will help them more than the arm strength.

 

 

Glenn has tree limbs for arms and he's as strong as an ox. He's huge. Martin looks like a little boy next to Glenn.

 

I think that Martin will be a bust as a LT. He just isn't big or strong enough. Maybe he'll find success as a finesse guy in a Denver type zone scheme, but not as a prototype NFL LT.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I watched a video of Glenn playing guard against South Carolina which wasn't particularly impressive but then I saw video of him playing LT against LSU and their All-SEC, All-American speed rusher Sam Montgomery.

 

Glenn was very impressive against LSU, in spite of being beaten once by Montgomery on a speed rush. After that he adjusted and totally dominated Montgomery. Eventually LSU rushed Montgomery from the other side.

 

Glenn also made 3 diving blocks on blitzes where the LB (once) and DBs (twice) were lined up in the 9 gap (wide). His athleticism making those blocks was pretty incredible.

 

Glenn looks a lot like Jason Peters… he wears number 71, and is similar sized at 6'5" and 345 pounds… a slightly bigger version with the same proportions and build.

 

From the 100 or so snaps I watched over the two games, Glenn is a nasty, mean, bastard who plays to the whistle. He looks to have very long arms and excellent athleticism… good kick step and ability to mirror, uses his hands well. He gets to the second level very quickly and has good vision and instincts. He's a mauler in the run game.

 

Glenn has become my favorite tackle prospect from this year's group and I'd have no problem if the Bills took him at #10. He looks like he can become a decade-long cornerstone on the O-line.

 

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I just watched Georgia's game against Boise State and Glenn did not look good however:

 

The Boise State game was week one. The South Carolina game was week two.

 

The LSU game was the SEC Championship game.

 

Glenn looks like he lost a lot of weight over those 12 games and was playing with energy, confidence and nastiness at season's end.

 

I think maybe the reason this guy isn't as highly rated as some of the other tackles is because he bloomed during the season and was off radar screens.

 

I'm gonna see if I can find some of his video from the Outback Bowl against Michigan State.

[Ramius]

 

One area where I fundamentally disagree with you is the notion where just prior to the draft prospects shoot up or down the board. Most teams have their boards established fairly early with some tweaking and clarifications made as the draft approaches. What really counts are the game tapes. The combine scores (speed, jumping ability etc) don't factor in the evaluation as much as people think. Although the prospects are groomed for the interview it is still useful because you can get some insights into the player's personality and intelligence.

 

Excellent post. I heard a radio interview a few years back with Bill Polian where he said the same thing. He stated that the only place players shoot up or down draft boards (by a few rounds) are in the minds of "mock drafters." He said that NFL teams have their board pretty well set, and things like pro days, the combine, etc might cause a player to move up or down a few spots, but no more. Teams have a good gauge on players. there's no extreme "jumps" on the draft board for NFL teams.

 

Just because fans and idiot mock drafters never heard of some one until january or february of their senior season doesn't mean that the NFL types havent been scouting them for a long time.

Edited March 30, 2012 by Ramius

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Yeah, I agree with John and Ramius.

 

It's pretty late in the process and I'd bet the teams are at least 95% or more done with their boards with only minor tweaks left from the few Pro Days remaining.

 

"Late movers" refers more to fans and draftnicks, IMO.

[Kelly the Dog]

Excellent post. I heard a radio interview a few years back with Bill Polian where he said the same thing. He stated that the only place players shoot up or down draft boards (by a few rounds) are in the minds of "mock drafters." He said that NFL teams have their board pretty well set, and things like pro days, the combine, etc might cause a player to move up or down a few spots, but no more. Teams have a good gauge on players. there's no extreme "jumps" on the draft board for NFL teams.

 

Just because fans and idiot mock drafters never heard of some one until january or february of their senior season doesn't mean that the NFL types havent been scouting them for a long time.

I guess it depends on what the definition of moving up and down the charts, if you're talking about a full round or two, sure. If you're talking 10-15 slots in the first round I think there is still a lot of movement all through the pro days and individual interviews and workouts and when ALL of the scouting has been done and the scouts get in the room with the GM and coaches and put the final board together.

[BuckeyeBill]

I know I've got to change my mock draft in saying this, but I truly believe Cordy Glenn is going to be the Bills pick. Over Martin.

Really... why would the Bills take the 2nd best guard at Pick #10?

 

Excellent post. I heard a radio interview a few years back with Bill Polian where he said the same thing. He stated that the only place players shoot up or down draft boards (by a few rounds) are in the minds of "mock drafters." He said that NFL teams have their board pretty well set, and things like pro days, the combine, etc might cause a player to move up or down a few spots, but no more. Teams have a good gauge on players. there's no extreme "jumps" on the draft board for NFL teams.

 

Just because fans and idiot mock drafters never heard of some one until january or february of their senior season doesn't mean that the NFL types havent been scouting them for a long time.

 

Then why is God's name did Darius Hewyard-Bey go #7 overall?

Edited April 2, 2012 by BuckeyeBill

[CBD]

Really... why would the Bills take the 2nd best guard at Pick #10?

He'd be drafted to play LT, where he played his senior season and was named first team All-SEC

Then why is God's name did Darius Hewyard-Bey go #7 overall?

Al Davis.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Jonathan Martin reminds me a lot of D' Brickashaw Ferguson… which is obviously a compliment.

 

He's more of a finesse tackle with great technique and smarts, but isn't overly physical.

 

I think he'll be a fine player but maybe not a real compelling one.

 

Cordy Glenn on the other hand would be more like a Korey Stringer-type player.

 

He'll likely mature and lose weight but still be the masher, mauler, wrecker-type player who physically beats you up all game long. He needs to refine his game a bit but is naturally gifted.

[JPS]

Glenn has tree limbs for arms and he's as strong as an ox. He's huge. Martin looks like a little boy next to Glenn.

 

I think that Martin will be a bust as a LT. He just isn't big or strong enough. Maybe he'll find success as a finesse guy in a Denver type zone scheme, but not as a prototype NFL LT.

By that standard, Big Mike Williams is a Hall of Famer. I suggest the Bills focus on whether a guy can play football, not whether he can lift weights or run fast in shorts.

 

Now, if the Bills pass on Martin, it will not be because of 19 reps. Does he have bad game day tape?

[1billsfan]

By that standard, Big Mike Williams is a Hall of Famer. I suggest the Bills focus on whether a guy can play football, not whether he can lift weights or run fast in shorts.

 

Now, if the Bills pass on Martin, it will not be because of 19 reps. Does he have bad game day tape?

 

 

Mike Williams did not like playing football, period. By all accounts, Glenn loves football and loves to hit people, hard. However the more I've been reading lately, it seems like the Bills picking Glenn at #10 will be a longshot.

 

I'm not sold on any player or position at #10 yet, but if I were Fitzpatrick and the Bills were taking a LT prospect, without hesitation I'd take Glenn over either Reiff or Martin.

[Orton's Arm]

By that standard, Big Mike Williams is a Hall of Famer. I suggest the Bills focus on whether a guy can play football, not whether he can lift weights or run fast in shorts.

 

Now, if the Bills pass on Martin, it will not be because of 19 reps. Does he have bad game day tape?

It's not a two way street. You can weed a guy out for not having all the physical tools he needs to succeed. But just because a guy has those tools doesn't mean he will succeed.

 

I wouldn't take an offensive lineman 10th overall if he can't do more than 19 reps. A red flag like that can, and should, lower the position at which he gets taken.

Edited April 3, 2012 by Edwards' Arm

[Bill from NYC]

Jonathan Martin reminds me a lot of D' Brickashaw Ferguson… which is obviously a compliment.

 

He's more of a finesse tackle with great technique and smarts, but isn't overly physical.

 

I think he'll be a fine player but maybe not a real compelling one.

 

Cordy Glenn on the other hand would be more like a Korey Stringer-type player.

 

He'll likely mature and lose weight but still be the masher, mauler, wrecker-type player who physically beats you up all game long. He needs to refine his game a bit but is naturally gifted.

 

Don't you have any issues at all with the fact that he played guard in college? I guess one could say moving from OG to OT worked for Branden Albert, but who knows? He might have been a hall of fame OG. Other than Albert, it's hard for me to recall college guards moving to OT in the NFL. It's easy to remember players moving from college OTs to NFL OGs. Ruben Brown and Andy Levitre come to mind, and there are MANY more.

[Ramius]

Don't you have any issues at all with the fact that he played guard in college? I guess one could say moving from OG to OT worked for Branden Albert, but who knows? He might have been a hall of fame OG. Other than Albert, it's hard for me to recall college guards moving to OT in the NFL. It's easy to remember players moving from college OTs to NFL OGs. Ruben Brown and Andy Levitre come to mind, and there are MANY more.

 

Glenn played OT at georgia, just not his entire career. He played Ot for a handful of games his sophomore year, and then played OT in his senior season.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Don't you have any issues at all with the fact that he played guard in college? I guess one could say moving from OG to OT worked for Branden Albert, but who knows? He might have been a hall of fame OG. Other than Albert, it's hard for me to recall college guards moving to OT in the NFL. It's easy to remember players moving from college OTs to NFL OGs. Ruben Brown and Andy Levitre come to mind, and there are MANY more.

 

Glenn played OT at georgia, just not his entire career. He played Ot for a handful of games his sophomore year, and then played OT in his senior season.

In addition, I felt he shined in the video I watched of his performance against LSU.

 

IMO he clearly has the ability to play LOT.

 

Personally I would take Cordy Glenn ahead of Reiff.

 

 

[CBD]

youtube.com/watch?v=tylmTFEubzE

He can also be seen playing LT on this video vs GT #71:

 

 

Also Glenn vs. MSU:

 

Edited April 7, 2012 by Carey Bender

[San Jose Bills Fan]

He can also be seen playing LT on this video vs GT #71:

 

youtube.com/watch?v=3TqsdLRzk2g

 

Also Glenn vs. MSU:

 

youtube.com/watch?v=BnANZOBirDg

Thanks CB. I had seen the MSU video just yesterday I think.

 

Good thinking to spy him out in any Orson Charles video.

 

Thanks. My opinion of him remains the same as before.

 

I think if he drops some weight and continues the work ethic he showed in 2011 that he can excel.

 

So much raw talent.

 

 

[KOKBILLS]

I just watched Georgia's game against Boise State and Glenn did not look good however:

 

The Boise State game was week one. The South Carolina game was week two.

 

The LSU game was the SEC Championship game.

 

Glenn looks like he lost a lot of weight over those 12 games and was playing with energy, confidence and nastiness at season's end.

 

I think maybe the reason this guy isn't as highly rated as some of the other tackles is because he bloomed during the season and was off radar screens.

 

I'm gonna see if I can find some of his video from the Outback Bowl against Michigan State.

 

That film vs. LSU was impressive...That's a hell of a good Defense and some great prospects he was going against...he made it look easy at times...Showed great balance...Kept his feet under him...That game showed he belongs with the big boys did it not?...Those dive blocks...at that size? That was pretty impressive...I'm like you...The idea of this kid is growing on me by the minute...And I agree he got better as the Season went on...That fact did not get by the Associated Press or The SEC Coaches who both made him 1st Team All-SEC...After watching more and more of Glenn I'm warming up to taking him at #10 overall...To me he is clearly a better option than Reiff, Martin, or Adams...I don't think it's even close...

 

This is where it gets interesting...One would think The Bills will be looking to Trade Down if it's Glenn...But I'm betting after watching enough SEC Film Buddy is going to be convinced Glenn won't slide too far into Round #1...We'll see I guess...

[KOKBILLS]

IMO he clearly has the ability to play LOT.

 

Personally I would take Cordy Glenn ahead of Reiff.

 

 

Totally 100% agree!

 

Glenn is just blooming as a Player and an athlete...That kid is massive and he's REAL light on his feet considering...He played one year at LT, but there's no reason he can't develop into a REAL good one...With NFL Coaching and conditioning we're talking about a potential monster here...Almost 6-6 and over 340 lbs. and he runs a 5.15...Great feet, good balance...He seems like a good humble person as well in interviews...I think the sky is the limit for this kid...To me he's as good a prospect as Anthony Davis was a few years ago...And Glenn went against WAY tougher competition in College...Davis went #11 Overall and has started at LT for the 49ers ever since...Don't see why Glenn can't do the same...

 

I've been saying all along if The Bills take an OT at #10 it's got to be a kid they feel can beat out Hairston...I think Glenn has a chance...Reiff?...No way...

 

Glenn Combine

[QCity]

I know I've got to change my mock draft in saying this, but I truly believe Cordy Glenn is going to be the Bills pick. Over Martin.

Good call.