K Gun Special Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The difference between 58% and 60% is one more completion every game and a half. Can't see it as being the deciding factor. 3rd downs it does matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I decided to compare Fitz's stats to the big three for 2011, just to see... Yes, I'm on a pro-Fitz kick, but no I'm not saying he is as good as these guys (or ever will be), just wanted to see how the stats compared. Fitz obviously only played 13 games, so I averaged his numbers out to 16 games and I included rushing yards since that is part of his game as well. ...................................................FITZ.................................Manning...........................Brees............................Brady Games....................................16 (prorated)............................16...................................16.................................16 Pass Attempts...............................542...................................679.................................658...............................492 Pass Completions..........................313...................................450.................................448...............................324 Completion Percentage.................57.8%...............................66.3%...............................68.1%...........................65.9% Total Yards (Pass & Rush).............4,005................................4,718..............................4,617............................3,930 Passing Yards...............................3,692................................4,700..............................4,620............................3,900 Yards Per Attempt..........................6.8....................................6.9..................................7.0................................7.9 Touchdown Passes.........................28.....................................33....................................33................................36 Interceptions.................................18......................................17....................................22.................................4 Total 1st downs (Pass&rush)..........202...................................255.................................237..............................199 Comp for 1st Downs.....................186....................................253.................................236..............................189 Rushing Yards...............................331......................................1...................................-2.................................30 If Fitz had the same number of attempts as Manning (with these numbers) he would have had 4,623 yds to Peyton's 4,700 (77 yards less or 5 yards less per game) and he would have had 35 TDs to Peyton's 33; INTs would go up however to 22 for Fitz compared to 17 for Peyton...I know that's all speculative, but its interesting nonetheless. Fitz's yards per attempt were similar to Manning and Brees and he had more total yards than Brady on the season (including rushing). The only major disparity is in completion percentage (8-10%) and TD/INT ratio versus Brady. Granted the big three didn't have career years this season (except for Brady's TD/INT%), but they also all had better offensive lines, more proven skill players, and have been in their offensive system for multiple years. Fitz's stats look pretty good to me for a guy with a lot less playing time and in his first year in a new system. If he can improve his completion % with a better O-line and more experience then we have a pretty good QB (I know a lot of you think he can't improve his accuracy, but I'm not so sure...not having to run for your life helps a lot). Not every team can have an elite QB; at any given time there are probably only 3-5 teams of 32 that have an elite QB. So, I'm happy we at least have Fitz and not another Trent Edwards, J.P., etc. I think Fitz can win in this league with the right pieces around him. What say you? Go Bills! You do realize that you can do this with a lot of QB's in the NFL right? For example Alex Smith had the same number of attempts as Manning he would have the same amount of yards and 28 TD's. Jason Campbell would have almost 300 more yards than Manning...David Garrard would have almost 400 yards more and 41 TD's. This is how ridiculous this comparison is. I mean, it would project Garrard out to almost 5,100 yards and 41 TD's!!! Do you know why these QB's dont have these stats and this many attempts? Because they were not good enough to keep drives going long enough to accumulate these stats. They all play the same amount of game time, in fact, we passed a lot this year, or at least tried to. Its the inablility to execute that was the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Gun Special Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You do realize that you can do this with a lot of QB's in the NFL right? For example Alex Smith had the same number of attempts as Manning he would have the same amount of yards and 28 TD's. Jason Campbell would have almost 300 more yards than Manning...David Garrard would have almost 400 yards more and 41 TD's. This is how ridiculous this comparison is. I mean, it would project Garrard out to almost 5,100 yards and 41 TD's!!! Do you know why these QB's dont have these stats and this many attempts? Because they were not good enough to keep drives going long enough to accumulate these stats. They all play the same amount of game time, in fact, we passed a lot this year, or at least tried to. Its the inablility to execute that was the problem. Bc people aren't going to realize Fitz is an avg QB and good backup QB who happened to throw a lot of touchdowns this year. They fail to realize he threw the 9th most INTs and only won a few games. He's never been a winner. He isn't a QB waiting to develop either, hes a 7th rd QB who played a handful of games and lost most of them. He is a gamer who isn't afraid to take chances and is pretty mobile. However, he is also not very accurate and misses too many throws to be a top starter in the league. Gailey said it today, if the bills think there is a long term starter in the draft they'll take him, but Fitz is ok for now. I think its funny so many fans are putting their hopes on a 30 yr old backup QB who wasnt a real starter until this year and couldnt beat out Edwards in training camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 (edited) The difference between 58% and 60% is one more completion every game and a half. Can't see it as being the deciding factor. It's amazing what an extra first down conversion or a few more touchdownanon a season can do. Not to mention hitting receivers in stride when they make catches - yards after the catch going up might make a difference? Hell what if one of those late picks against the ravens was a completion. Theres a reason you see winners on one side and losers on the other. The NFL is so close in terms of competition right now. Once you get into a playoff race that one or two throws is the difference between a 1 seed and a 5 seed sometimes. Imagine if he got it up to 65-66 a solid 8 point raise to where most franchise qbs are- you don't think two completions can change a game? Then imagine if there not spread evenly - maybe one game he gets 4-5 more.... That turne into 3-4 more conversions and he gets an extra 5 attempts. On the day that could be 7 more throws caught. Its about sequencing, putting together drives. Keeping the offense on the field and theirs off. Maybe with the added time of possession the D gives up less points. There's so much synergy that starts when you get those extra percentage points while maintaining a good YPA. I say The difference between 58 and the mid 60s is HUGE. Edited January 7, 2011 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 (edited) %58 career completion percentage actually shows the opposite. The homies don't get it, and I sorta don't blame them considering that Fitz actually made the offense look competitive in some games this year. Just think of that win / loss record with Brian Brohm at QB all season, no wins? I'll go back to his career win loss record at 8-14-1...Jim Kelly was 101-59-0 in his career, the numbers don't lie Should the Bills stay with Fitz and continue to build a team around him, he may develop into a winning QB, time will tell. Edited January 7, 2011 by Harvey lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 All you Fitz and Gailey lovers are going to witness another suck year and the year after that, we need a real QB and a competent coaching staff, but unfortunately we’re stuck with this minor league program called the Buffalo Bills. Hey thanks for joining the website man! We appreciate the input, keep up the great work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Cubed Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If Stevie doesn't make as many drops, I think Fitz could make it pass 60% completion Seriously this needs to stop. Stevie doesn't make nearly as many drops as people think. Not to mention how about the ones that are practically uncatchable that are caught by him. http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=nfl&type=receiving&rank=232 Stevie is in the middle of the pack for elite NFL receivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 he should be able to fix the turnover rate simply by concentrating on reducing fumbles, and hes already clearly improved his td/int ratio well over his career average. im afraid he probably wont be able to get the compl% to where it would need to be to make him franchise material, but even where it is he remains a quality starter who is better than at least half the starting qbs in the league His completion percentage has been pretty consistent across his career, while his % INT and INT/TD have dropped considerably I'm not sure what that means. The positive interpretation is he's never really had an offseason to get in sync with his receivers (and his receivers are more clay-handed than one would like) The negative interpretation is "he's just not that accurate" Can accuracy be improved by practice? I dunno. Practice is said to improve most things. Interestingly, Gailey, who is not mealy-mouthed and who sees all Fitz film and all his practices, says he has accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The homies don't get it, and I sorta don't blame them considering that Fitz actually made the offense look competitive in some games this year. Just think of that win / loss record with Brian Brohm at QB all season, no wins? I'll go back to his career win loss record at 8-14-1...Jim Kelly was 101-59-0 in his career, the numbers don't lie Should the Bills stay with Fitz and continue to build a team around him, he may develop into a winning QB, time will tell. Comparing Fitz to Kelly now is crazy but this is the worst stat to prove it. I'm going to go on a limb here but I think the Bills' teams Kelly played on were slightly more talented than this 2010 model. Only slightly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Big gap in completion percentage and noticeable gap in passing yards. Also prorating the production is such a variable. Still Fitz had nowhere near the talent around him. Fitz to me should be given the 2011 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 (edited) Comparing Fitz to Kelly now is crazy but this is the worst stat to prove it. I'm going to go on a limb here but I think the Bills' teams Kelly played on were slightly more talented than this 2010 model. Only slightly better. Actually no, its not. Kelly went 4-12 his first year in Buffalo in 1986 on a bad Buffalo team, and you could still see he was going to be great the way he played that year. He threw for 3593 yards 22 TD's in an era that didn't have the pass happy rules they now have in the NFL. AND with Hank Bullough as his HC his first 9 games The only thing Fitz accomplished this past season is that he showed he can compete, the Bills beat some bad teams for those 4 wins. Lets see him win some games against some good teams. The problem is for Fitz is he doesn't have Marv Levy, Ted Marchibroda and Bill Polian. He has a GM who came in and stated the Bills were "not that far away", after 5 games that tune changed to "its going to take some time'" He has a HC that wasted an entire off season grooming the wrong QB. He has a scouting staff that has drafted JP Losman-John McCargo-Aaron Maybin with first round picks Edited January 7, 2011 by Harvey lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fixxxer Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'd like to see 3rd down conversion % for each of those guys. IMO, 3rd down conversions and turnovers are the two most important stats in football. http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?year=2010&type=Passing&range=NFL&rank=098 1 Ben Roethlisberger Pit 50.5 ( 54/107 ) 2 Drew Brees NO 49.7 ( 83/167 ) 3 Philip Rivers SD 49.0 ( 76/155 ) 4 Matt Ryan Atl 47.2 ( 85/180 ) 5 Jon Kitna Dal 46.9 ( 38/81 ) 6 Shaun Hill Det 44.3 ( 54/122 ) 7 Vince Young Ten 44.2 ( 23/52 ) 8 Michael Vick Phi 44.2 ( 38/86 ) 9 Ryan Fitzpatrick Buf 43.9 ( 58/132 ) 10 Peyton Manning Ind 43.4 ( 69/159 ) 11 Tom Brady NE 43.1 ( 59/137 ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cadidliac Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?year=2010&type=Passing&range=NFL&rank=098 1 Ben Roethlisberger Pit 50.5 ( 54/107 ) 2 Drew Brees NO 49.7 ( 83/167 ) 3 Philip Rivers SD 49.0 ( 76/155 ) 4 Matt Ryan Atl 47.2 ( 85/180 ) 5 Jon Kitna Dal 46.9 ( 38/81 ) 6 Shaun Hill Det 44.3 ( 54/122 ) 7 Vince Young Ten 44.2 ( 23/52 ) 8 Michael Vick Phi 44.2 ( 38/86 ) 9 Ryan Fitzpatrick Buf 43.9 ( 58/132 ) 10 Peyton Manning Ind 43.4 ( 69/159 ) 11 Tom Brady NE 43.1 ( 59/137 ) Interesting stat. I knew Fitz had to be up there. He was pretty damn good on 3rd downs. Top 10 in fact. Thanks for the info!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?year=2010&type=Passing&range=NFL&rank=098 1 Ben Roethlisberger Pit 50.5 ( 54/107 ) 2 Drew Brees NO 49.7 ( 83/167 ) 3 Philip Rivers SD 49.0 ( 76/155 ) 4 Matt Ryan Atl 47.2 ( 85/180 ) 5 Jon Kitna Dal 46.9 ( 38/81 ) 6 Shaun Hill Det 44.3 ( 54/122 ) 7 Vince Young Ten 44.2 ( 23/52 ) 8 Michael Vick Phi 44.2 ( 38/86 ) 9 Ryan Fitzpatrick Buf 43.9 ( 58/132 ) 10 Peyton Manning Ind 43.4 ( 69/159 ) 11 Tom Brady NE 43.1 ( 59/137 ) As a stand alone stat this is probably the closest to an endorsement yet in this post. The original table was pretty worrisome in a lot of categories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Only thing worrying me thumbing through those stats on the posters site.... Fitz is not even in the top 20 in second half qb rating, 1 int away from leading the league in second half picks (despite less starts)... Is 13th in the AFC for 4th quarter qb rating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Lightning Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It's called being an American. An American on TSW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreReed83 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 And what's their winning percentage compared to Fitz? You really comparing Fitz to these guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The leap that Fitzpatrick made this year was extraordinary. It amazes me that fans still can't see what me and the other intelligent posters here saw in 2010. He improved his QB rating by 12 points. The guy came off the bench to throw 23 TDs in 13 games. That's real good. Stevie Johnson had 10 TDs (should have been 11)! Give this very smart dude another year in the same system, a complimentary running game and a TE, the sky's the limit for him and this offense. There's no way that he doesn't improve that percentage number in 2011. Yeppers I kinda look at FitzBeard as the QB figurative equivalent of a mixed-breed puppy with large feet. You can tell he's not done growing, and you're not quite sure where he'll stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCBongo Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I like Fitz and look forward to him being "the man". I hope he will spend the off-season studying tape and working out. I'd like Jimbo to help him as I see them as similar but Fitz lacks Jim's overall talent. Next year will be another non playoff team (so it look as of today) so there is no harm in having Fitz, and if he does the necessary he could be THE QB we have been looking for. I wish him nothing but success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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