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Why I don't think we will go Defensive Front 7 with our 1st pick


Virgil

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Gailey and Nix want "their" guys and I believe they have them, unless we are planning on going back to a 4-3 next year, and even still, I'm concerned.

 

This is our front current front 7:

 

LE - Stroud/Carringon (3rd round pick last year)

DT - Williams/Troup (2nd round pick last year)

RE - Edwards/Kelsay (Signed last offseason and just signed extension)

 

LOLB - Moats (picked up strong in second half

MLB - Poz, Davis (Could absolutely use help, but no one worthy of our first pick)

ROLB -?????

 

Now, please tell me if I'm wrong, but the only hole to fill, is OLB. And, from what I understand, Bowers is not built for that position. He is a 4-3 DE who is too small to play that position in a 3-4 and would be Kelsay/Maybin like in coverage. I do hear that he is a freak talent, so maybe that's what we try, but I have to really wonder.

 

I agree that our run D is pathetic, but I don't know who Gailey would get rid of. These are all his guys and I don't see him giving up on the new FA's or rookies after one season.

 

Just call it a bad feeling for those who want Bowers or Fairly

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Gailey and Nix want "their" guys and I believe they have them, unless we are planning on going back to a 4-3 next year, and even still, I'm concerned.

 

This is our front current front 7:

 

LE - Stroud/Carringon (3rd round pick last year)

DT - Williams/Troup (2nd round pick last year)

RE - Edwards/Kelsay (Signed last offseason and just signed extension)

 

LOLB - Moats (picked up strong in second half

MLB - Poz, Davis (Could absolutely use help, but no one worthy of our first pick)

ROLB -?????

 

Now, please tell me if I'm wrong, but the only hole to fill, is OLB. And, from what I understand, Bowers is not built for that position. He is a 4-3 DE who is too small to play that position in a 3-4 and would be Kelsay/Maybin like in coverage. I do hear that he is a freak talent, so maybe that's what we try, but I have to really wonder.

 

I agree that our run D is pathetic, but I don't know who Gailey would get rid of. These are all his guys and I don't see him giving up on the new FA's or rookies after one season.

 

Just call it a bad feeling for those who want Bowers or Fairly

I really don't see your point. Stroud is a goner for sure, and why would they have to get rid of one of our rookies by drafting front seven at pick #3?

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Let's see. The team that was 32nd in the league against the run and routinely gave up 200 yards in a game and we can't figure out who to get rid of??? I can't figure out who to keep.

 

Stroud, Johnson, Edwards, Ayodele, Davis, Ellison, and Kelsay should ALL be gone. OVERHAUL!!!

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No, not at all. But I don't think Nix is going to go after the front 7 when he has guys who he brought in to address that after only one year.

 

Again, I think that the OLB would be a no-brainer, but I don't think there is a top 3 pick guy worthy of that honor

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Gailey and Nix want "their" guys and I believe they have them, unless we are planning on going back to a 4-3 next year, and even still, I'm concerned.

 

This is our front current front 7:

 

LE - Stroud/Carringon (3rd round pick last year)

DT - Williams/Troup (2nd round pick last year)

RE - Edwards/Kelsay (Signed last offseason and just signed extension)

 

LOLB - Moats (picked up strong in second half

MLB - Poz, Davis (Could absolutely use help, but no one worthy of our first pick)

ROLB -?????

 

Now, please tell me if I'm wrong, but the only hole to fill, is OLB. And, from what I understand, Bowers is not built for that position. He is a 4-3 DE who is too small to play that position in a 3-4 and would be Kelsay/Maybin like in coverage. I do hear that he is a freak talent, so maybe that's what we try, but I have to really wonder.

 

I agree that our run D is pathetic, but I don't know who Gailey would get rid of. These are all his guys and I don't see him giving up on the new FA's or rookies after one season.

 

Just call it a bad feeling for those who want Bowers or Fairly

 

No love for the Merriman signing?

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Now, please tell me if I'm wrong, but the only hole to fill, is OLB.

 

You're wrong. The front 7 is abysmal and any one of those guys except for Williams could use a significant upgrade. Moats might turn into something down the road and Poz and Kelsey are serviceable - but not guys you build your team around. If you have a chance to grab a special player you take him, the only guy in the front 7 who has earned his spot for next year is Williams as far as I'm concerned.

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I disagree. I think the front seven gets the epic overhaul this year. First round, third round picks, one top FA signing, at minimum.

 

While I like Bowers, I get he's for a 4-3 scheme. How about Dareus?

 

A new DC would be great too.

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We've seen other teams rush for more than 200 yards against us in half of all the games this year. Half. I think it's happened so many times that we've become numb to it.

 

But the fact of the matter is that nobody should ever rush for more than 200 yards against your team. You've done well if you keep a team under 100 yards rushing; you've done average if you keep them under 120 yards rushing. Over 150 yards is not good. Over 200 yards should never, ever happen. Even once in a season is bad. And it happened in half of all of our games this year.

 

I cannot stress how jaw-droppingly awful that statistic is. This is a historically bad defense. One player, even two, are not going to turn that crap around.

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Again, I watched the same team that you all did this year and agree with everything that you are saying.

 

But I just don't think that Nix is going to throw in the towel on any of the guys who he has only had for one year.

 

I admit I forgot about Merriman btw, but I'm not going to count on him until I see him run 2 yards without breaking a nail

 

As for my reverse psychology approach. Yes, i'm all for them drafting Luck. But that isn't going to happen and there isn't another qb i'd take first overall.

Edited by Derek in Va
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If there is a pass rusher available at OLB I can't see how we don't grab him. If there is a big time run stuffing DE I think we take him. It wouldn't surprise me if we don't go front 7 but If there is a sure fire front 7 prospect worth taking I would be shocked it they pass up on that guy.

 

It honestly depends who is available for the Bills. Theoretically I would like to draft OLB round 1, RT round 2, and trade back into round 2 to take a MLB. Then go into the mid rounds and pick up a tightend and some front 7 depth.

 

But its all about who is available. If there aren't any impact front 7 players worthy of taking it changes your philosophy.

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The problem with the DL isn't so much a lack of talent as it is an identity crisis. Troup and Williams would make a great 4-3 DT combo and Edwards and Carrington (assuming Carrington continues to develop) make good 3-4 DEs. Kelsay is a solid role player as a 4-3 DE, but certainly not one to plan your defensive scheme around, and he's not cut out for OLB. And who knows what Batten will offer. I don't think there's any question the LBs need a significant upgrade. If we're going 3-4 as of now I think we go with the following:

 

RE - K. Williams/Carrington

NT - Troup

LE - Edwards/Carrington

 

ROLB - Moats

RILB - A. Davis*

LILB - Poz

LOLB - ?Merriman?*

 

or for 4-3

 

RE - ???*

DT - K Williams

DT - Troup

LE - Kelsay

 

ROLB - Moats/Ellis*

MLB - Poz

LOLB - ???*

 

* Indicates key area to upgrade

 

I can't say I'm crazy about either scenario, but with a better DC and a few good personnel moves...

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You convinced me with your arguement I am now convinced we will definately go front 7 defense with that pick

 

Now starts the time of year when posters who want a QB start making reverse arguements about how they wont go defense......

 

We were DEAD LAST against the run in the NFL this year.....dead last

 

I believe Nix's hope is that Merriman will be able to go decently in 2011, thus adding a solid ( if not very good) OLB. This would make a DE (Dareus?) a solid pick with our first. That is unless The Bills brass is in awe of the performances of Duan Edwards and Marcus (I'm getting real long in the tooth") Stroud this year. Carrington make work out well, but he surely didn't show enough to rest the future on him alone.

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Again, I watched the same team that you all did this year and agree with everything that you are saying.

 

But I just don't think that Nix is going to throw in the towel on any of the guys who he has only had for one year.

 

I admit I forgot about Merriman btw, but I'm not going to count on him until I see him run 2 yards without breaking a nail

 

As for my reverse psychology approach. Yes, i'm all for them drafting Luck. But that isn't going to happen and there isn't another qb i'd take first overall.

 

 

It isnt about giving up on players he just drafted.....keep in mind that some players have to go in order for some players to come along....

 

Lets take the DE position for example.....If I was a betting man i would say Stroud is done....cant set the edge....cant get to the QB.....gets blocked by one player

 

OK so they drafted Carrington (who in my opinion has shown more then Stroud each and every time he has been in the game) but while Carrington to me looks like a rock against the run.....his pass rush was considered a real project and while he could push the pocket he hasnt really shown us that. So what do you do? If we want our secondary to start coming up with turnovers we have to start getting pressure from our down linemen without blitzing our linebackers and safeties on every down.....and we have to be able to hold down the run.

 

So you see....regardless of whether we drafted players last year for the defense....we still didnt have everything we needed. To me that is what makes Darius (hopefully in a trade down?) the right pick.....

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It isnt about giving up on players he just drafted.....keep in mind that some players have to go in order for some players to come along....

 

Lets take the DE position for example.....If I was a betting man i would say Stroud is done....cant set the edge....cant get to the QB.....gets blocked by one player

 

OK so they drafted Carrington (who in my opinion has shown more then Stroud each and every time he has been in the game) but while Carrington to me looks like a rock against the run.....his pass rush was considered a real project and while he could push the pocket he hasnt really shown us that. So what do you do? If we want our secondary to start coming up with turnovers we have to start getting pressure from our down linemen without blitzing our linebackers and safeties on every down.....and we have to be able to hold down the run.

 

So you see....regardless of whether we drafted players last year for the defense....we still didnt have everything we needed. To me that is what makes Darius (hopefully in a trade down?) the right pick.....

 

Nice, I find agreement here....:thumbsup:

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Gailey and Nix want "their" guys and I believe they have them, unless we are planning on going back to a 4-3 next year, and even still, I'm concerned.

 

This is our front current front 7:

 

LE - Stroud/Carringon (3rd round pick last year)

DT - Williams/Troup (2nd round pick last year)

RE - Edwards/Kelsay (Signed last offseason and just signed extension)

 

LOLB - Moats (picked up strong in second half

MLB - Poz, Davis (Could absolutely use help, but no one worthy of our first pick)

ROLB -?????

 

Now, please tell me if I'm wrong, but the only hole to fill, is OLB. And, from what I understand, Bowers is not built for that position. He is a 4-3 DE who is too small to play that position in a 3-4 and would be Kelsay/Maybin like in coverage. I do hear that he is a freak talent, so maybe that's what we try, but I have to really wonder.

 

I agree that our run D is pathetic, but I don't know who Gailey would get rid of. These are all his guys and I don't see him giving up on the new FA's or rookies after one season.

 

Just call it a bad feeling for those who want Bowers or Fairly

 

I'm thinking the same thing. Ralph wants a QB, we NEED a QB, none of the DLs are great (I mean Suh-great). So long as newton or Mallett impress in their bowl games and at the combine, we will get one of them and the Ralph will be full next season or whenever football is played again. Bet on it. You don't gamble on a questionable defensive lineman with the third pick, but you DO take a questionable QB. Check your NFL history.

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Again, I watched the same team that you all did this year and agree with everything that you are saying.

 

But I just don't think that Nix is going to throw in the towel on any of the guys who he has only had for one year.

 

I admit I forgot about Merriman btw, but I'm not going to count on him until I see him run 2 yards without breaking a nail

 

As for my reverse psychology approach. Yes, i'm all for them drafting Luck. But that isn't going to happen and there isn't another qb i'd take first overall.

I see the problem here. Your perception of upgrading the team is skewed. Our front 7 is the weakest group on the team, and you believe that trying to upgrade that group in the draft is "throwing in the towel". Even if the players we drafted for our front 7 turn out to be good starters, where is the depth then? Injuries and suspensions are a constant in the NFL and you never have enough talent at any position. Unless of course 4-12 is your goal. When the Jets lost Jenkins at NT they seemed to have a guy that could readily step in there and do the job. Jenkins' backup would start ahead of any of our NTs, and that is the opposite of what we always seem to have on this team. Everyone was crying that we had 3 RBs to start the season, and guess what, those same d*******s today forget that 2 of them were injured to start the season.

 

People are going to look really foolish once Danny Batten is starting for us at ILB next season. Or did everyone forget about this guy?

What's to remember is the real question.

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