Carolina Panthers to Take Luck?

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I don't know if Andrew Luck will declare for the 2011 draft.

 

And if he does, I don't think the Bills will have a shot at him.

 

But I agree with some of your takes and disagree with others.

 

There is no question in my mind that the Panthers will take Luck if he declares for the draft, and it does not mean they feel that Clausen will fail. When you have the opportunity to draft a great qb, you do it. Yes there is risk, but Luck seems to have it all. Clausen will sit on the bench, and if he plays well when given the opportunity, he will be traded.

+1

+2

 

People are making this more complicated than it is.

 

Whether Clausen is franchise qb material or not would not stop the Panthers' from drafting Luck because he is the better franchise qb prospect.

 

If the Bills had an opportunity to draft Luck and didn't because the organization felt that Harvard Fitz was their designated franchise qb then they would be laughed out of the league.

Agreed.

 

And Carolina would certainly know what constitutes a "franchise QB". The organization that kept Delhomme for 2 seasons too long (as their "franchise QB")? ANd replaced him with Matt Moore? And just a few years ago pulled Vinny Testaverde off his couch to start for them??

 

Yet they can tell that Clausen, after 5 starts, isn't "franchise material"?

 

Well how about that...

Plus these people making these decisions could very well be gone after this season.

Weo, drafting Luck if he's available is considered a virtual no-brainer. Teams will go over him again with a fine-toothed comb because they'll be throwing a Bradford-like contract at him (6 years, $78 million). But the consensus on his abilities and rank as the number one player in this draft is virtually unquestioned.

 

But you contend that the inept Panthers (because they can't evaluate QBs) wouldn't recognize what the other 31 teams in the league would recognize…that Luck is the number one player in the draft and that further, the fact that Clausen is still in the embryonic stages of his career (and because the Panthers can't evaluate QBs?) would cause the Panthers to pass on Luck. To the first point, the Rams were inept…did that stop them from recognizing that Bradford was as close to a can't-miss prospect as there was? Secondly, Clausen is not that highly rated a prospect, nor has he shown enough yet to cause Carolina to pass over Luck, IMO. When there was doubt over Drew Brees after two up and down but sometimes promising seasons as San Diego's starter, the Chargers ended up acquiring Phillip Rivers. If there's any question, you don't pass up a player like Luck.

 

And Levi, you took Weo's "inept argument" and raised it that Carolina might clean house before the draft anyways. That means what? In all likelihood, Carolina's current football people have Luck as the best player in the draft and if they clean house, the people who replace them will likely come up with that same conclusion.

 

from what i've heard down here they think clausen is the qb of the future. remember, richardson is a defense first guy and he took peppers when harrington was on the board. i know they took kerry collins real high back in the day but they will draft a def lineman with that top pick. the past couple season the panthers have just been plagued by injuries with their nt tearing achilles last year, thomas davis torn acl last two years, stewart and williams both being banged up the last two years, jordan gross, jeff otah as well.

The defense-first argument is really the only viable argument to those saying Carolina wouldn't take Luck if given the chance. I don't agree because I've read articles stating that they would take Luck and I have my own convictions, but at least this is a coherent argument.

 

I analyzed the teams who might be in a position to draft Andrew Luck. Again he has not yet declared for the draft. He has until mid-January to do so. My assumption is that Luck is viewed as such an outstanding, can't miss prospect by NFL teams that even teams with good or adequate QBing will strongly consider drafting him, or drafting and then trading him, or trading the pick to a team lower in the draft.

 

The 2-win teams are Cincinnati, Carolina, Detroit, and Buffalo.

 

The 3-win teams are Arizona, Dallas, and Denver.

 

The 4-win teams are Minnesota, San Francisco and Cleveland.

 

In Cinci, it's been speculated that Carson Palmer is done. He'll be 31 next month and his injuries have increased as his effectiveness has decreased. I have no doubt that Cinci would draft Luck if he was available.

 

I also have no doubt that in Carolina, Jimmy Clausen does not represent a strong enough reason not to draft Luck. Clausen was chosen 48th overall and has not played well this year (in fairness he's a rookie on a bad team).

 

I don't know if the Bills would draft Luck if they had the opportunity. I love Fitzy but I'd draft Luck. Regardless, I don't think the Bills get the opportunity.

 

Detroit is, I think, the only team two-win team that would not draft Luck. They drafted Matthew Stafford first overall and when healthy, he has played well. No one in the NFL doubts that if he stays healthy that he will become a franchise quarterback.

 

Of the 3-win teams, Arizona would draft Luck in a heartbeat. Their quarterbacking is horrible.

 

On the other hand, Dallas has Tony Romo and Denver has Kyle Orton. Both those players are borderline Pro Bowl-quality QBs so I think either of those teams is 50-50 to draft Luck but I wouldn't be surprised if either team did draft him if he was available.

 

The 4-win teams are Minnesota, San Francisco and Cleveland.

 

Cleveland regards Colt McCoy very highly. There's a league-wide consensus that McCoy might be a special player and that if the 2010 draft was held today, that McCoy would be drafted before Tebow and Clausen...somewhere around the mid to upper first round. San Francisco has had mediocre quarterbacking this year. Minnesota, is trying to get a new stadium, has a geriatric Favre, and would undoubtedly draft Luck.

 

So here's the breakdown:

 

Carolina (2 wins) The co-leader in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Cincinnati (2 wins) The co-leader in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Detroit (2 wins) Have Matthew Stafford...will probably not draft Luck. Might trade the pick.

Buffalo (2 wins) Have Fitzy. Not sure if they would draft Luck...but I would. You simply don't pass up an opportunity like this.

Arizona (3 wins) Will draft Luck if they have a chance.

Denver (3 wins) Have Kyle Orton. Not sure if they would draft Luck. Probably but not definitely.

Dallas (3 wins) Have Tony Romo. Plus, since firing Phillips, the Cowboys are 2-1 and barely lost to the Saints.

Minnesota (4 wins) Need a QB of the future but are 1-0 since firing Childress. Probably will finish out of the running.

San Francisco (4 wins) Will draft Luck if they have a chance.

Cleveland (4 wins) Have Colt McCoy. Not sure they would draft Luck. Will have a hard time finishing "ahead" of the other 9 teams.

Edited December 3, 2010 by San Jose Bills Fan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I love them as much as the crowd that believes with certainty that a QB on a 2-9 is the next coming of Drew Brees and/or Tom Brady.

 

Brees had a 2-9 season in San Diego (2003)

Which may have something to do with the fact that 'Diego acquired Rivers to become their "Franchise Guy" in '04 and traded Brees

-- straight into becoming the First Coming of Drew Brees and marching the Saints into the SB.

 

If Buffalo makes a similar decision to keep Fitz around to "groom" the "Franchise Guy", I hope Fitz has similar success as Brees, elsewhere.

Use 'em or lose 'em.

[aristocrat]

Brees had a 2-9 season in San Diego (2003)

Which may have something to do with the fact that 'Diego acquired Rivers to become their "Franchise Guy" in '04 and traded Brees

-- straight into becoming the First Coming of Drew Brees and marching the Saints into the SB.

 

If Buffalo makes a similar decision to keep Fitz around to "groom" the "Franchise Guy", I hope Fitz has similar success as Brees, elsewhere.

Use 'em or lose 'em.

 

if fitz turns out to be drew brees then i hope we do better and trade him like the pats did cassel and get a real nice pick in the draft

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Excerpt from the ESPN Insider piece:

 

Adam Schefter: "If Luck comes out, it's game over. He will go No. 1, you can put it down in pencil. To Carolina. To Buffalo. To Cincinnati. To a team that wants to trade up. To whoever. End of discussion. And if my team had the No. 1 pick, and it had the chance to take a potential franchise quarterback, it would be insane to pass it up."

[Buffalo Billy]

Depending on what happens with the labor situation, he'd be dumb not too. Nothing is guaranteed in football and he can always get his degree. Look at what happen to Locker this year. He got hurt and had a bad year. Now, he's a borderline 1st rounder and would have easily be a top 5 pick last year. Same with Leinart.

 

And if Harbaugh doesn't leave, he would have zero reason to go back to school.

I believe it is called the Brohm Syndrome.

[LabattBlue]

So here's the breakdown:

 

Carolina (2 wins) The co-leader in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Cincinnati (2 wins) The co-leader in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Detroit (2 wins) Have Matthew Stafford...will probably not draft Luck. Might trade the pick.

Buffalo (2 wins) Have Fitzy. Not sure if they would draft Luck...but I would. You simply don't pass up an opportunity like this.

Arizona (3 wins) Will draft Luck if they have a chance.

Denver (3 wins) Have Kyle Orton. Not sure if they would draft Luck. Probably but not definitely.

Dallas (3 wins) Have Tony Romo. Plus, since firing Phillips, the Cowboys are 2-1 and barely lost to the Saints.

Minnesota (4 wins) Need a QB of the future but are 1-0 since firing Childress. Probably will finish out of the running.

San Francisco (4 wins) Will draft Luck if they have a chance.

Cleveland (4 wins) Have Colt McCoy. Not sure they would draft Luck. Will have a hard time finishing "ahead" of the other 9 teams.

Carolina only has 1 win.

[Peace]

 

The 2-win teams are Cincinnati, Carolina, Detroit, and Buffalo.

 

The 3-win teams are Arizona, Dallas, and Denver.

 

The 4-win teams are Minnesota, San Francisco and Cleveland.

 

 

 

Cleveland regards Colt McCoy very highly. There's a league-wide consensus that McCoy might be a special player and that if the 2010 draft was held today, that McCoy would be drafted before Tebow and Clausen...somewhere around the mid to upper first round. San Francisco has had mediocre quarterbacking this year. Minnesota, is trying to get a new stadium, has a geriatric Favre, and would undoubtedly draft Luck.

 

So here's the breakdown:

 

Carolina (2 wins) The co-leader in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Cincinnati (2 wins) The co-leader in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Detroit (2 wins) Have Matthew Stafford...will probably not draft Luck. Might trade the pick.

Buffalo (2 wins) Have Fitzy. Not sure if they would draft Luck...but I would. You simply don't pass up an opportunity like this.

Arizona (3 wins) Will draft Luck if they have a chance.

Denver (3 wins) Have Kyle Orton. Not sure if they would draft Luck. Probably but not definitely.

Dallas (3 wins) Have Tony Romo. Plus, since firing Phillips, the Cowboys are 2-1 and barely lost to the Saints.

Minnesota (4 wins) Need a QB of the future but are 1-0 since firing Childress. Probably will finish out of the running.

San Francisco (4 wins) Will draft Luck if they have a chance.

Cleveland (4 wins) Have Colt McCoy. Not sure they would draft Luck. Will have a hard time finishing "ahead" of the other 9 teams.

 

First, Carolina is NOT a 2 win team. They have won one game. They are the leader in the Luck sweepstakes and I'd be shocked if they gave it up.

 

Second, as far as the Bills go, this conversation is moot. They won't be picking number 1 or 2. I'm guessing the Bills will pick after Detroit, Cinci, Carolina, and maybe even one other team (AZ would be my guess). I wouldn't even be surprised if the Bills picked 7 with 4 wins on the season.

Edited December 3, 2010 by Peace

[KOKBILLS]

I didn't read the article, but the prevailing thought here in Charlotte seems to be that if Luck declares, and he's there, it's a no-brainer. They seem to have already decided that Clausen isn't franchise material.

 

I'm down here in Charlotte as well and I fully agree...

 

No way they pass on Luck if he comes out and they have the #1...In fact right now the Top 5 Picks would go to Carolina, Detroit, Cincy, Buffalo, and Arizona...I think only Detroit would pass on Luck if they got #1 Overall, but they would likely just Trade out to a Team that's going to take Luck anyway...

[Red]

 

Too bad we don't play them this year. They'd call it the 'Good Luck, laydown Bowl'.

 

'Here, you take it'

No, no, you!

'I insist! Take it!

Wouldn't think of it. Please, help your yourself to that fumble..

 

Oh, c'mon!

 

Have you even seen the game against the Ravens? Bears? Chiefs? Lions? Bengals? Steelers?

 

"Laydown Bowl"?!?!?

 

Man, get off of the dope smoking, and wake up.

 

Since the bye week, these Bills are much improved. They are finally entertaining to watch. They don't shoot themselves in the foot anymore with ill-timed penalties, turnovers, etc. Heck, last week we got to see Jonathan Scott screw over the Steelers with several penalties in 1 game. Good riddance to him! Now he's Pittsburgh's problem.

 

These Bills could have easily laid down after the loss to Green Bay, or the one against the Jets. They were 0-5 going into the bye, with no evidence of anything to get excited about.

 

But they have turned it around. They are in every game. They have become competitive again. The Ravens were supposed to clean the field with them. Didn't happen. So were the Steelers. We beat them in OT, had Johnson held onto that perfect pass.

 

Laydown Bowl.

 

Please....

[bizell]

And Carolina would certainly know what constitutes a "franchise QB". The organization that kept Delhomme for 2 seasons too long (as their "franchise QB")? ANd replaced him with Matt Moore? And just a few years ago pulled Vinny Testaverde off his couch to start for them??

 

Yet they can tell that Clausen, after 5 starts, isn't "franchise material"?

 

Well how about that...

agreed

 

to say that clausen isn't going to be a good nfl QB after 5 games is downright retarded.

[nucci]

I don't have insider. Anyone care to summarize? Is it just worthless speculation?

It's only December. It can only be worthless speculation.

[GOBILLS78]

agreed

 

to say that clausen isn't going to be a good nfl QB after 5 games is downright retarded.

 

They don't think he isn't going to be good. It's more about Luck than it is about Clausen. Teams won't pass up Luck, especially if their quarterback situation is in doubt.

[KOKBILLS]

Kinda funny, like if people had believed the QB on a 1-15 Dallas team would go on to win three Super Bowls with them. That's crazy talk!

 

Oh boy here we go again!

 

I'll start off by saying I really have nothing against Fitz...Though I think The Bills better have a solid Plan B behind him...Anyway...I'm AOK with trying to build around Fitz for now...

 

But comparing 1st Ballot HOF QB's to Fitz, in any way at this point, is a bit ridiculous...Plus even with Aikman it took 2 Trades that could never happen again in a million NFL years to build those Championship Cowboys Teams...I think a much better comparison could be the Ravens and Trent Dilfer...Though Fitz may very well have a bigger upside than Dilfer did...Still, The Bills are going to have to build one hell of a good Defense to win a Championship with Fitz at QB...

 

The truth is if they had a QB in House that was the caliber of Troy Aikman the re-building process (in order to get to a Championship level) would be easier...I'm not sure how much easier...But easier nonetheless...Cause Fitz is no Aikman, Kelly, Young, Montana, or the like...And these comparisons have to stop before my head explodes...

[San Jose Bills Fan]

 

Second, as far as the Bills go, this conversation is moot. They won't be picking number 1 or 2. I'm guessing the Bills will pick after Detroit, Cinci, Carolina and maybe even one other team (AZ would be my guess). I wouldn't even be surprised if the Bills picked 7 with 4 wins on the season.

Your post was a reply to mine, which started:

 

I don't know if Andrew Luck will declare for the 2011 draft.

 

And if he does, I don't think the Bills will have a shot at him.

Edited December 3, 2010 by San Jose Bills Fan

[Doc]

agreed

 

to say that clausen isn't going to be a good nfl QB after 5 games is downright retarded.

The problem is that no one knows how good, if at all, Clausen will be. Do you pass up a chance at Luck in the hope that he looks (infinitely) better than he does now?

 

Conversely, do the Bills take Luck when Fitz has proven more than capable, they would probably need to trade next year's 1st rounder to move up and get him, he'll have a monster contract, and he's unproven?

[JohnC]

 

I don't know if Andrew Luck will declare for the 2011 draft.

 

And if he does, I don't think the Bills will have a shot at him.

 

But I agree with some of your takes and disagree with others.

 

Well done multiple responses. You had a number of balls juggled in the air at the same time without letting any hit the ground. Excellent focused commentary.

 

If you are fatigued just take a break and give your nimble fingers a rest. Two thumbs up for double effort.

Edited December 3, 2010 by JohnC

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Well done multiple responses. You had a number of balls juggled in the air at the same time without letting any hit the ground. Excellent focused commentary.

 

If you are fatigued just take a break and give your nimble fingers a rest. Two thumbs up for double effort.

Thanks John. I'm pretty sure you're being sincere…and I appreciate it.

[JohnC]

Thanks John. I'm pretty sure you're being sincere…and I appreciate it.

 

I am being sincere. Your responses were laser sharp.

[TC in St. Louis]

Brian Regan says Take Luck.

[Mr_Blizzard]

I love them as much as the crowd that believes with certainty that a QB on a 2-9 is the next coming of Drew Brees and/or Tom Brady.

 

Maybe Ryan Fitzpatrick is the next Tom Brady . . .

 

I don't have insider. Anyone care to summarize? Is it just worthless speculation?

 

It looks like it's a given that Carolina will have the #1 pick. Even if they are extremely fortunate, I don't see them winning any more than 2 games the rest of the year. More likely scenerio is that they lose out. They are going to have to go offense with their pick; they are averaging less than 14 points-scored per game.