Financial future of the NFL

[Mr. WEO]

Not to worry. The NFL foresaw the economic meltdown. The CBA and their "war chest" will solve all their problems.

Doc, looks like you were the only one who awoke some morning that September surprised to read about the economic collapse in the newspaper.

 

There is no CBA, by the way.

[PromoTheRobot]

It wasn't supply-side economics that killed manufacturing. It was labor costs and environmental regulations handicapping our products versus those produced in completely unregulated economies.

Other countries' businesses deal with regulation and do okay. Just take a look at Canada. We, on the other hand, tell business to take the money and run. I think that had more to do with losing our manufacturing base.

 

PTR

[ExiledInIllinois]

The Bills are one of, if not THE best team in the NFL to handle a market collapse of the NFL. They are very financially conservative, have zero debt, and are able to (presumably) be in the black. If they can survive the immediate future (from now till ownership changes, which will happen in the next 10 years or less) and get another sweetheart lease for the stadium, I think that there will be zero chance of the team moving. At the end of the day, the big $$ teams like cowboys, pats, etc. make a lot more money, but pay a lot more back into debt. If something happens with the financial stability of the NFL, you'll see the big boys fail first and the small guys like Buffalo and Green Bay survive and thrive.

 

Summary: I'm not worried in the least, and I'm actually looking forward to a correction.

 

Thanks Ralph!

[ExiledInIllinois]

It wasn't supply-side economics that killed manufacturing. It was labor costs and environmental regulations handicapping our products versus those produced in completely unregulated economies.

 

 

So why didn't business and our gov't have the moral fiber to say "no" against the unregulated economies? Tragedy?

[nucci]

They predict the world economy to collapse and a global depression and their biggest concern is the NFL?

[Lurker]

The premise of that article is completely bogus since Elliott Wave International is a fuggn' joke. May as well cite the 2012 End of Days as a reason for the NFL's collapse, since the odds of that happening are higher than the Dow hitting 1,000.

 

It never ceases to amaze what lows writers (or investment gurus) will stoop to to attract eyeballs amid all the white noise...

[Doc]

Doc, looks like you were the only one who awoke some morning that September surprised to read about the economic collapse in the newspaper.

 

There is no CBA, by the way.

September? You were talking May of that year. Funny that your idol Jerruh Jones didn't change plans for Jerruhworld, given the impending economic meltdown. I guess "the situation changed" there as well.

 

And yes doc, there IS no CBA.

[Lurker]

Sorry for going on so long.

Me too, since your premise is so bupkis. Average annual population growth for the United States:

 

Since 1929--1.2%

Since 1970--1.0%

Since 2000--0.9%

Census Bureau Projection 2009-2040--0.9% (source)

 

To say the U.S. is going to hell in a handbasket because population growth is going to fall one-tenth of a percentage point below the 1970-2009 average is just too Tea Party to be true...

[silvermike]

The premise of that article is completely bogus since Elliott Wave International is a fuggn' joke. May as well cite the 2012 End of Days as a reason for the NFL's collapse, since the odds of that happening are higher than the Dow hitting 1,000.

 

It never ceases to amaze what lows writers (or investment gurus) will stoop to to attract eyeballs amid all the white noise...

 

I saw that movie. So after that tidal wave crashed an aircraft carrier into the White House, I imagine it'll be tough to get anyone to come to Redskins games, but the sinking of California will benefit the NFL, since they're relatively uninvested in Los Angeles. And then the move to Tibet will definitely be good for the Bills, since we'll have record numbers of fans in China because of Ed Wang.

[SDS]

Me too, since your premise is so bupkis. Average annual population growth for the United States:

 

Since 1929--1.2%

Since 1970--1.0%

Since 2000--0.9%

Census Bureau Projection 2009-2040--0.9% (source)

 

To say the U.S. is going to hell in a handbasket because population growth is going to fall one-tenth of a percentage point below the 1970-2009 average is just too Tea Party to be true...

 

Was this necessary?

[CodeMonkey]

Summary: I'm not worried in the least, and I'm actually looking forward to a correction.

I'm looking forward to an implosion.

I don't believe the NFL can sustain their own greed for much longer. The sooner it collapses on itself and gets a strong dose of reality the better.

[dollars 2 donuts]

I'm glad I came in here because, well, this is Mr. Happy Fun Thread.

 

 

With a little relaxation and the satisfaction of a great submarine sandwich maybe you won't read about me tomorrow climbing to the top of Campus building, picking of co-eds in the quad while screaming, "What's the frequency Kenneth!", while waiting for the oncoming Rapture.

 

 

Serenity now...Serenity now.

[Lurker]

Was this necessary?

Why perpetuate false and misleading info?

 

Oh, that right...it's the new normal.

[Mr. WEO]

September? You were talking May of that year. Funny that your idol Jerruh Jones didn't change plans for Jerruhworld, given the impending economic meltdown. I guess "the situation changed" there as well.

 

And yes doc, there IS no CBA.

My "idol"? Come on, doc. That is so weak. This is all you've got now.

 

 

Yes, they dumped the CBA in May. You seem to think the economic collapse began 4 months later. That's September, doc.

 

Jones voted to end the CBA. He was never a fan of it anyway---mainly because the thought of sharing what he felt was his money with guys like Ralph made him angry. Anyway, he was hellbent on building his monument to himself, to the tune of $650 mil of his money.

[SDS]

Why perpetuate false and misleading info?

 

Oh, that right...it's the new normal.

 

So, you couldn't have provided contrary evidence in a friendlier way?

[GG]

You don't need a doomsday machine to predict the NFL's gravy train to come to a stop some day. The really big deal will be at the next TV contract redo to see if the networks hold the line. The sport is still popular, but people are starting to rebel at the high costs of going to games.

[Doc]

My "idol"? Come on, doc. That is so weak. This is all you've got now.

 

 

Yes, they dumped the CBA in May. You seem to think the economic collapse began 4 months later. That's September, doc.

 

Jones voted to end the CBA. He was never a fan of it anyway---mainly because the thought of sharing what he felt was his money with guys like Ralph made him angry. Anyway, he was hellbent on building his monument to himself, to the tune of $650 mil of his money.

Oh, I "seem to think the economic collapse began 4 months later?" You've hit a new low.

 

Again doc, they were talking about opting-out just a year after voting-it-in. And the earliest they could contractually opt-out was 2 years from the time they signed it. IOW, they didn't opt-out of it because "the situation changed." And again, had Jerruh known that the economy was going to collapse, he would have waited to build his shrine.

[Lurker]

So, you couldn't have provided contrary evidence in a friendlier way?

Point taken.

[Malazan]

The Bills are one of, if not THE best team in the NFL to handle a market collapse of the NFL. They are very financially conservative, have zero debt, and are able to (presumably) be in the black. If they can survive the immediate future (from now till ownership changes, which will happen in the next 10 years or less) and get another sweetheart lease for the stadium, I think that there will be zero chance of the team moving. At the end of the day, the big $$ teams like cowboys, pats, etc. make a lot more money, but pay a lot more back into debt. If something happens with the financial stability of the NFL, you'll see the big boys fail first and the small guys like Buffalo and Green Bay survive and thrive.

 

Summary: I'm not worried in the least, and I'm actually looking forward to a correction.

 

You realize when the ownership changes hands, the Bills will have debt? A lot of it. That is why there is a belief that keeping them in WNY is not viable because the profit margin would be incredibly thin with the interest from a loan to buy the team.

 

However, I disagree with a lot in that article.

[Orton's Arm]

Other countries' businesses deal with regulation and do okay. Just take a look at Canada. We, on the other hand, tell business to take the money and run. I think that had more to do with losing our manufacturing base.

 

PTR

I'd argue that the manufacturing base was driven away by several factors:

• A cost of capital that is far too high
  
• China's manipulation of exchange rates (also a dollar that is too strong)
  
• Labor unions
  
• Problematic corporate management
  
• Unfavorable tax and regulatory environments
  

Cost of Capital

A corporation's cost of capital is driven by two factors: 1) the interest rate it must pay on its corporate debt, and 2) the rate of return demanded by the owners of its stock. If a company has a 70/30 debt-to-equity ratio, for example, its cost of capital is (0.7 * corporate interest rate) + (0.3 * rate of return on its stock). Several factors affect corporations' cost of capital:

1) The federal deficit. There is only so much investment capital available. When the government runs at a deficit, it must sell government bonds to cover the difference. Investors who might otherwise have purchased corporate debt instead buy up government bonds. The government's actions drive up demand for investment capital; which in turn lowers the amount available for corporations, while increasing the price. This is especially important for manufacturing firms, because they typically must make large investments in expensive machinery to stay competitive.

 

2) Federal tax policy. The Japanese economic boom of the '80s was fueled largely by tax-free savings accounts. The U.S. government lacks analogous incentives for people to save, except for paperwork-intensive, highly restrictive and regulated accounts such as IRAs and retirement plans. The IRS's desire to eat the seed corn--that is, the investment capital--is one of several factors responsible for the very low net savings rate.

 

3) "You are what you consume" cultural messages. A large portion of the population has been encouraged to live beyond its means, and to engage in conspicuous consumption. The fact that so much of the population has not engaged in net savings has deprived American manufacturers of the capital needed to buy expensive machinery.

 

The strong dollar

Over the last several decades, the goal of American policymakers was to keep the dollar strong. A strong dollar rewards foreign companies who seek to import into the U.S., while punishing American firms who seek to export their goods to other nations. A strong dollar also makes Americans "feel" wealthier, and allows them to buy more imported goods. (Which is one of the reasons why it was pursued.) If the American dollar was far too strong for too long, China's currency was exactly the opposite. China's policymakers deliberately kept their currency weak in order to aid Chinese manufacturers. The head of an American furniture manufacturer noted that this currency manipulation was the single strongest factor in China's edge over American furniture manufacturing; and was twice as important as the difference in labor costs.

 

Labor Unions

It is very difficult for a unionized firm to compete with a non-union analog. Toyota, for example, does much of its manufacturing in the U.S., and its factories are non-union. In competing against Toyota and other such firms, the Detroit automakers found their hourly wage rates increased beyond what they could reasonably afford. Even more importantly, the unions imposed lavish pension plans on the automakers. The unions also made it difficult to fire under-performing workers, or to promote anyone except on the basis of seniority. They also imposed unreasonable restrictions, such as forbidding anyone except an electrician from changing a light bulb. Labor unions are also often associated with measures that drive down productivity, such as (in some cases) restrictions on the amount each worker could produce each day.

 

As bad as private sector unions are, public sector unions are far worse. They are strongly associated with increasing the size and burden of government; thereby driving up the aforementioned government deficits.

 

Problematic Corporate Management

The management at the Detroit automakers and places like Bethlehem Steel was (typically) very bad. In a perfect world, these badly-managed companies would have gradually been replaced by other American auto and steel manufacturers. To a degree that has happened with steel. But in the automotive sector, the vacuum created by the failure of American auto firms has been filled by foreign substitutes, not by other American firms. Partly this is due to the aforementioned high cost of capital and other factors which make the manufacturing environment unfavorable in the U.S. But it is also due to the sheer difficulty of creating an automotive manufacturing firm from scratch.

 

Unfavorable tax and regulatory environments

In a perfect world, the American federal, state, and local governments would be sensitive about adding to the paperwork burdens of individuals and businesses. In the world in which we live, however, it is routine for government bureaucracies to create lengthy, complex, burdensome regulations that are onerous to comply with. When the unreasonable/paperwork burden is added to the reasonable burden of imposing favorable environmental and workplace safety standards, the costs of regulatory compliance become very high. It is also worth noting that the United States has signed trade agreements which specifically forbid it from imposing tariffs on imports based on working conditions in the countries of manufacture. Industrial production in China, for example, can be associated with a massive amount of pollution, but we can't impose a tariff on that portion of the production we import into the U.S.

 

It is also worth noting that the federal tax code strongly penalizes long-term capital investments. Instead of being able to deduct business expenses as they are incurred, American manufacturers must "depreciate" their expenses over the course of many years. This flaw in the tax code creates a completely artificial incentive to invest in items expected to "depreciate" quickly, while avoiding those which depreciate slowly. One reason for the existence of office cubicles, for example, is that cubicles are considered office furniture (depreciates over seven years) as opposed to improvements in the building (depreciates over 40 years). The tax code also hurts the tree farming industry. Each year, tree farmers are expected to pay taxes on the "value increase" of their trees, years before any lumber is harvested or any cash from tree farming is received. While the portion of tax law which relates to tree farming may not seem directly relevant to American manufacturing, it directly illustrates the IRS's short-sightedness, greed, and consequent eagerness to eat the seed corn.

 

Every bolded item in the above list represents a burden that has been added to American manufacturers. (Though in fairness, some burdens--such as bad management--are self-imposed.) The sum total of these burdens became too great for them to bear; which is why they have either gone under (American electronics manufacturers) are going under (American car makers), or have moved overseas. Getting businesses to grow in your country is a lot like getting plants to grow in your garden. In both cases, success results from making conditions as favorable as possible for growth. But in the U.S. we have all too often followed the opposite approach: we have made things progressively worse for businesses in general and manufacturers in particular; and then have wondered why they have gone belly up.