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Not with that attitude. You make a good point about young QB's without much tape on them taking the league by storm and never being able to duplicate that season again. I'd also add the league has shifted since Mahomes, Allen, and Jackson's breakout years though as the cover 2 shell is now in vogue.

many, many factors that will be hard to duplicate. The bolded, like the pandemic, is basically impossible to duplicate. We see players all the time now have career years early in their careers and then never reach those same heights again. Mahomes in 2018 Jackson in 2019 Allen in 2020 They all have in common in that they were breakout seasons in their second or third year and to this date they are their best statical seasons by a wide margin.

This should be the goal. It was also the year we pry surrounded Josh with the best combination of pass protection and weapons. Diggs, Beasley, and Brown were still at the peak of their careers. Davis was a great WR4. Defenses still trying to figure out how to play Josh Allen and no fans in the crowd also helped so if you want to see Josh at his best again we need another world pandemic.

I think the answer is yes, we want Allen running much more than the 4.6 attempts per game he was getting in the 10 games with Dorsey last year. The team was 5-5 and not playing winning football with that strategy. As I pointed out in another thread, Allen's "heavy" usage as a runner in the final seven games of the season after Brady took over was not out of the ordinary for the Bills and Allen. The low 4.8 ypc was the anomaly and that new game plan the Bills tried clearly failed as they were 5-5 and looking down the hole of missing the playoffs entirely. I do think the Bills will once again try and employ an early season game plan of less carriers for Allen. So far that has not proven to be a successful game plan outside of the 2020 season which I'm not sure we can successfully try and copy due to the unique circumstances of that year. Not just covid, but the Bills taking the league by surprise with the addition of Diggs and the emergence of Allen. Also don't think teams had totally grasped how to defend QB's like Allen and Mahomes yet in 2020. Also, in 2020, Allen ran more early in the season (first 10 games 7.2 attempts per game) and then closed the season running less (final 6 games 5.0 attempts per game). Complete opposite of what we have been seeing the last three seasons where Allen increases his carry load later in the season. Bills win/loss record in ( ) 2019- first 10 games 7.4 attempts per game (6-4) 2019- final 6 games 5.8 attempts per game (4-2) 2020- first 10 games 7.2 attempts per game (7-3) 2020- final 6 games 5.0 attempts per game (6-0) 2021- first 10 games 6.1 attempts per game (6-4) 2021- final 7 games 8.7 attempts per game (5-2) 2022- first 10 games 7.1 attempts per game (7-3) 2022- final 6 games 8.8 attempts per game (6-0) 2023- first 10 games 4.8 attempts per game (5-5) 2023- final 7 games 9.0 attempts per game (6-1) The trend the last three seasons under three different offensive coordinators has been Allen attempting 9 rushes per game to close out the final stretch of the season. For that to be the case under three different OC's is pretty telling. Only twice Allen has averaged 5.0 or less attempts per game and they yielded drastically different results for the W/L column. Last year was the only year Allen averaged less than 6 attempts per game over the first 10 games of the season. Only twice has he even been under 7 attempts per game in the first 10 games, over the last five seasons. The other was 6.1 attempts in 2021 and lead to a 6-4 record, not as good as the 7-3 records when Allen had over 7 attempts per game.

Below is the 2023 season. Yards per pass attempt Dorsey: 7.2 Brady: 6.5 Yards per rush attempt Dorsey: 4.6 Brady: 4.4 Percentage of offensive plays which were passing plays Dorsey: 58% Brady: 48% Diggs was a much worse player late season, than he'd been in September and October. That's going to drag down Brady's numbers, through no fault of his own. One good thing about Brady: the offense turned the ball over about half as often under him, as it had under Dorsey. The Brady number that's of biggest concern to me is 6.5 yards per pass attempt. Trent Edwards' career average is 6.5 yards per pass attempt. For Losman it's 6.6. Josh Allen is the best QB in Bills' history. We need him to produce at a higher level than Edwards or Losman. Obviously. Also: when you have a QB like Allen, you need to pass the ball more than 48% of the time. A running game which averages 4.4 yards per carry is reasonable. But, if a coach sees 4.4, it's not as though he should become all googly eyed and star struck, to the point where he says, "Wow! We really need to be doing this with more than half of our offensive snaps!"

It’s okay to have reservations on this one, only because it hasn’t happened yet. It’s just fact that Allen’s superstar years are with Diggs lined up.

The Bills drafted a receiving target with their 1st pick each of the last two years. That's SERIOUS investment (better late than never). Kincaid should be their WR1 this season, with a variety of targets behind him hopefully offering solutions to whatever DCs devise throughout 2024. People are sleeping on Kincaid imho. Not yet, no doubt. But was Kelce a game changer in his rookie season? (He appeared in only one game and recorded no stats.) Next two years were solid, but not great. So why can't an even better prospect (without the benefit of hindsight and Andy Reid), playing with Josh Allen, not also ascend?

Oh, believe me, I didn't think that you were making it up. But those are stats that come difficult to find in a sortable manner. Football Outsiders used to have a great stats section with all kinds of stuff that couldn't be found elsewhere, but games, by three-game stretches, the season, etc. It was great. They've been gone for a while. No, I was genuinely interested in your source. As to the stuff above, and presumably you read my last reply otherwise, which also addresses that somewhat, those numbers are fine, but the problems occur when you consider efficiency, not merely totals. For example, Allen's carries doubled from just under 5 (as I recall) to nearly 10, almost double. Is that really what we want our generationally talented QB with a cannon arm to be focusing on? And then why the diminishment in compl. % "all other things being equal"? How many of those rushing yards is Allen responsible for? Cook? Did you look to see how Cook's YPC average plummeted to 3.6 over what, I think the last five games of the season? If we look at the body of Dorsey's 10 games contrasted with Brady's 7 games, the distributions offensively are essentially the same. Two of our top three and 3 of our top-5 rushing games were under Dorsey. Brady and "his offense" have gotten credit for taking us to 6-1. Is that realistic? His offense produced 14 points v. Miami and we only won due to the unlikeliest of PR-TDs. We put up a tremendously average 24 points against a banged up poor Charger D. Against NE same thing, we put up 21 in very average fashion. Much worse offensive teams put up more points than us against those teams many times. Our offense averaged 19.3 PPG in those three to "win" them. Allow me to ask, suppose we add another FG to that, 22.3, and that's what we would average under Brady, what would you say that our record would be this season? ... So why was it the reason we won those games then? Those numbers are nice, in isolation I suppose, but what I'm trying to get you to do is to break it down more. Tell us about Cook's performance? Sure, "we ran more," and he tore it up against a depleted Dallas team in an emotionally high game for us, but otherwise over 6 games under Brady he went 92 carries for 328 yards, and 0 TDs. Is that good? It's an average of 15 for 55 yards, no scores, and a YPC average of a bottom-dwelling 3.7. Is that good? Is that what's going to propel us to yet another division win and some success in the playoffs? The question is, again, who is driving that? Is it really Brady that truly believes that's the best way to get the offense to be all that it can be? Is that what you think? Do you think that our ticket to winning, any season, not merely this one since our offensive strategy seems to change every season as it has, is to have Allen run more, force cook or some 4th round RB to run the ball, but never on 3rd-downs, and limit Allen's passing game to the extent that he posts 60% completions and a pace of 24 passing TDs/season, which would have been good for 11th last season tied with Stafford and Jackson. IDK, maybe you do. Some people obviously do since they parrot McDefense's "complimentary football" unoriginal and ill-suited to this team's offensive talent, largely Allen. I don't think it is when you have a generational talent at QB with arguably the strongest arm that the league has ever seen and athleticism that would make any coach drool with anticipation at getting their hands on him with some creativity. But call me crazy. Apparently the answer is to put him in a short-medium passing game box, have him run the ball more while opening himself up to not only more hits and tackles running, but also more QB Hits and QB Hurries as the stats indicate under Brady. We will see to be sure. If I had to guess a theme heading into this season, it might very well be be careful what you wish for, you may get it. Either way, and hopefully I'm dead wrong, but what do you think? What are your answers to those questions? ------ Edit: BTW, I just clicked on that Niagara Gazette link hoping to find the source, unless I missed it it wasn't included. What I did notice was the discussion about how Allen largely picked Brady. Obviously the forum applauds that and people give credence to that. But Allen was also the reason in the same exact manner as to why Dorsey was picked. He also loved Daboll who had his flaws. Maybe someone knowledgeable should decide who's best to get the most from this offense, someone that can see the forest for the trees, i.e. not Allen. And coaches and players develop personal relationships and tight friendships amongst themselves, which would obviously bring bias into the mix. The question is who, who has that offensive wherewithal to make such a choice and decision. HINT: it's not McD. And think about it, even if it were, if we were to bring in an OC that caused our offense to explode, and yet we went to the playoffs with the D failing as it has, what do you think that the outcry would be? ... maybe that's why McD hasn't gotten anyone else but from within or those that he knows personally. Just sayin'. Once again, let's ask ourselves, had Allen arrived here before McD, would anyone have chosen McD to be the Bills' coach? Would you have? ... you have Allen, now you need a coach. Would you have had McD on your short list? It's largely a chicken-egg thing. Keep in mind, McD was the only one in the world that wanted Peterman, and he had to have media and fan pressure change his mind. What does that in and of itself say? More food for thought.

I think adding a top tier WR changes the whole evaluation of the off-season offensive moves for the better. It takes the offensive talent to a different level. I believe the moves made allow for a WR and it would not be all in. They have the room for this WR for several years. There is an incredibly young core of offensive playmakers. Lets not forget that cap management is part of Beane's job. If he really opts to do this radical of a rebuild in Josh's prime, he should face the music.

I don't know that it is a common idea among those disappointed with the WR room that Josh is not being helped. One has to hope that Knox plays up to his ceiling. Last year, for a variety of reasons, was not his best. Kincaid is a rising star. I like the RB room. So, great. I actually think there appears to be depth and promise on the Oline. If that turns into a dominant unit, that will exponentially help Josh Allen. I think one can criticize the WR room and still like the rest of the offense, and hope that Brady will come up with a strategy that can be unpredictable for defenses and put up a lot of points. It would help if some of those scratch offs at the bottom of the WR room turn out capable of explosive plays downfield.

We can win a Super Bowl if Josh Allen gets hurt week 11 and another failed QB plays great like Nick Foles did 2017. That doesn’t make it a good plan. It doesn’t make it likely.

Not with this roster of Jags. This is a drought era roster without Josh Allen, 0 elite playmaker outside of Allen, 0. Ask any of your friends that is not a Bills fan to name 1. A lot of outside opinions I have saw this year have the Bills finishing 3rd in division, yet on TBD we ate guaranteed the division and playoffs with a garbage roster outside of Allen 🤣

Wonder what Matt Araiza is up to… oh wait Andy Reid took him 😂. Now we get to hear about Josh starting inside the 10 because of the punt god.

"Keon Coleman makes cath from Josh Allen on a slant in shorts" The Bills are winning the SB 🤣

And the roster of Jags outside of Allen continues

We can win a Super Bowl without a great WR unit. That’s all that really matters. If we had poor WRs and a mix of sub par to average TE, RB and OL units, I would think we’d have a discussion for doing things wrong. Instead, we have above average to good, maybe very good units along with an elite QB. So many saying that we’re not helping 17 by not investing more into WR. I agree that I’d have liked to invest more in WR, but I don’t agree that we aren’t helping him. I think our run game will be improved and that will open up play action and Josh’s ability to move around and create time out of the pocket. I think Josh has the ability to transform Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, knox, Cook, Hollins and MVS from unproven unit to a quality unit. Kincaid, Coleman and Samuel are top 40 picks. They’re talented- Coleman and Samuel haven’t had the benefit of playing with 17 yet. 17 can help level them up as he will continue to do with Shakir. Hollins has never played with a good QB. MVS has won back to back being WR3-4. I get it. You guys want better WRs. So do I. Let’s just not act like we’re ruining 17’s career by not having an elite WR. We had one and he was a no show more often than not on the biggest stage

You specifically have asked in this thread why Josh's completion % fell under Brady and why our receivers weren't scoring under Brady. I have given you explanations on both and therefore neither is out of context. One, Diggs and Davis sucked after week 6 ands got worse as the season progress thus leading to Diggs having a 58% catch % and Davis in the 40% area under Brady. Second, as I previously pointed out, Brady diversified the offense and the ball went to Cook and Allen near the end zone thereby limiting the TD catches to the receivers. As to Singletary and Moss, who cares. They have never played here under Brady so why are they relevant to this discussion? The Bills drafted Davis to be this team's version of Kenneth Davis, a tough running and good catching, 3rd down back for this offense. Not an offense run by Daboll or Dorsey. How those guys utilized a 3rd down back is meaningless. As to their 3 RB's pedigree, I'll disagree there as well. Davis has the fastest 40 time (4.52 vs 4.66 & 4.65). He outgained Singletary from scrimmage in their final year and Davis earned his numbers in the SEC vs Singletary at Flordia Atlantic. Moss put up the best counting stats, but again he did it in the D challenged Pac 12. Just because some was drafted in the 4th rd vs the 3rd round is not proof that they have a better pedigree. It's more likely proof of a weaker RB group in the draft when Moss & Singletary were drafted or a stronger over all class in Davis' year. These are the 3 key stats. The Bills rushed more, turned the ball over less, and won 7of 9.

I'm so sick of you comparing Josh to Tannehill!

Yes, this team is a different team in the playoffs. So was Allen. We've gone over that. That's out of context with the discussion. Gee, bit step up there. LOL But Davis isn't > Singletary or Moss. Both of them had greater credentials coming into the NFL than Davis has. This is a wash/rinse/repeat thing by McBeane. None of our RBs ever get significant 3rd-down carries, but you knew that, right? This will all come clear in the fall in every likelihood. Then everyone will be saying the same things then that they said, or similar anyway, while avoiding the core issue, that they said about Dorsey.

Coleman is going to be used in ways that Davis never could master. He will be running a lot of shorter routes. I see some folks have set their hair on fire because all they see is short routes and that isn't Josh's game. Some are thinking that we have an excellent RB room and are thinking that they will be used to set up the pass and while that's true to an extent, I think that many of us are over simplifying what the plan may actually be. I'm looking at some of the WRs that have speed and thinking there are quite a few of them. What is the plan for them? It's my belief that guys like Coleman, the TEs and the RBs will all be used to set up a deep passing game. If your RBs are rushing and getting lots of short area work in the passing game, your TE's are getting short passes, Coleman is getting short passes, what is going to happen with that second safety? He's certainly going to creep closer to the LOS. That's when we're going to see one of those speedy smurfs streaking downfield deep. Perhaps Kincaid will get in on some of those deep balls. Josh has to be able to reliably hit those short passes. Doing so opens up the deep pass. Brady likes to get all of the skill position players involved and that is not a bad thing. The offense is going to be mixing things up better. Gabe Davis couldn't catch a short pass to save his life and the safties on defense never had a good reason to creep closer to the LOS as a result. Coleman is going to change that with his sure hands and short routes. He's also got some run after the catch ability. I honestly think that defenses are going to be set up for the kill shot going deep. I think that's what the offense wanted to do last year but couldn't entice a safety closer. That's about to change. I also think there is work being done to improve run after the catch. The offense is going to be much less predictable this year with Diggs and Davis gone and an everybody eats philosophy. In summary there is much more to the offense's skill position players than many believe. The skills are there to give a defense fits. All Brady has to do is keep mixing things up and spreading the ball around. Josh is going to have some fun this year elevating the team around him giving everyone their opportunity.

K. I looked for a way to share a "gift article" and didn't see so I'll try (it's The Athletic, btw, which can be trialed with or without NYT). Article is by Randy Mueller, former pro personnel director for the Seahawks and GM of the Saints (2000-2001) and Dolphins (2005-2007). After that he had a 10 year run as "Senior executive for football operations" for the Chargers then moved on to the XFL. I give this as context, because while he legit knows some football, it's also notable that the NFL stopped paying him for his NFL talent evaluation ability back in 2007. He starts off noting that Trevor Lawrence was a consensus top pick with everything to like about him, coming out of Clemson - "Size, arm, athletic ability, accuracy..intangibles". He says that at the time of the draft, his take was "He’s going to need to be reprogrammed from Clemson’s RPO-heavy, simplistic passing game and be taught an NFL passing game from the ground up, conceptually.", but of course, that's true of a lot of QBs. But Lawrence hasn't really hit yet, so what's the problem? He writes off Lawrence rookie year with Urban Meyer and focuses on 2023 He says it's not the scheme: He thinks Lawrence lacks patience in the pocket: The same was noted of Pat Mahomes early in his career and the same could be said of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, all among the top passers of today. So to some extent, I think this reflects a league change from the classic pocket passer (like Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers etc) to a more athletic "extend the play, create something" type QB. From that lens, the problem wouldn't be Lawrence bailing from the pocket, but the lack of secondary route concepts/scramble drills in the offense, and/or inability to either exploit them or create with his feet. He concludes

Besides the 2 TDs Shakir had in the playoffs? Josh is a dual threat QB. Showing only throwing stats doesn’t give the full picture. You asked why the receivers weren’t scoring TDs under Brady, well Josh had 11 rushing TDs under Brady (7 under Dorsey) and Cook had 4 TDs rushing and receiving under Brady (2 under Dorsey). Maybe the ball simply went elsewhere when we needed a score? By the way Diggs and Davis were already failing prior to Brady taking over. There is a clear line in their drop-off from week 6 to week 7 and beyond. Diggs’ catch % went from 74% in the first 6 weeks to 61% the rest of the season. Davis was 70% in weeks 1-6 and fell to 47% weeks 7-17. (Dorsey vs Brady - Diggs catch % 71.6 under Dorsey and 58.7% under Brady; Davis 60% under Dorsey; 46.2 under Brady. It also be noted that Diggs went from 74% in weeks 1-6 to 66.7% in weeks 7-10 under Dorsey). If you ask me, Josh drop in completion % has more to do with diminishing play from Diggs and Davis than from anything else. The team 5-5 under Dorsey and 7-2 under Brady. All this is moot anyway. Davis, Diggs, Harty, Sherfield and Murray are gone. They are being replaced by Coleman, Samuel, Hollins, MVS (or Claypool) and Ray Davis. These are much different weapons and probably better weapons for Brady to utilize. If I was mapping weapon for weapon: Diggs > Shakir, but closer than you think as Shakir out played him significantly after week 6 on only 1/3 the targets Coleman > Davis - Don’t be surprised when Coleman gives us better number as a rookie then Davis in his 4th year especially completion %. Samuel - is likely replacing Shakir in the slot MVS/Claypool > Harty- either is better than Harty Hollins > Sherfield Davis > Murray - Davis is an upgrade over the aging Murray and will likely take some short yardage carries from Josh as well.

It sounds like Brady's offense is going to be significantly different than last year's. This is what Josh said: “I think it remains to be seen, we’re putting in a lot of new stuff, a lot of different concepts that we typically haven’t ran since I’ve been here, which is very exciting for me. I’m learning a whole new offense, and guys are excited. I think what coach Brady is doing right now is some really good stuff, and our guys are going out there and executing really well, and we’re just trying to learn, grow, and be the best that we can be.” www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/learning-whole-new-offense-has-bills-josh-allen-excited-for-season-ahead/ar-BB1nqeev?ocid=BingNewsSerp

Exactly what I was thinking. We just need one of the best 2 TEs ever in the league, or a HOF caliber WR. Or one of the most athletic gifted TEs ever. But don’t worry, we don’t need an elite talent catching balls from Josh Allen. lol

I still believe there's too much talk about the soldiers and not enough about the generals. This O has Josh and enough other weapons that it could potentially score a bunch of points. Whether or does or not depends on the offense that Brady is able to scheme up and how well he trains the players to execute it. When asked about this year's offense, Allen said this, “I think it remains to be seen, we’re putting in a lot of new stuff, a lot of different concepts that we typically haven’t ran since I’ve been here, which is very exciting for me. I’m learning a whole new offense, and guys are excited. I think what coach Brady is doing right now is some really good stuff, and our guys are going out there and executing really well, and we’re just trying to learn, grow, and be the best that we can be.” Josh tends to be an optimist who supports his coaches so I'm not sure I trust his evaluation when he says this is "some really good stuff." I think the better quote is, "it remains to be seen." I'm hopeful because I'm a Bills fan. I'm not down on this O nor especially excited. But I am very curious.