Cash

Good response here. Let me just add my two cents: not all luck has to be bad luck. In the long run, about half of the breaks should go for you, and about half against you. We Bills fans are used to most of the breaks, or at least the really impactful ones, going against us. But that doesn’t mean we need to apologize or feel guilty, or in any way feel diminished, when a couple breaks go our way.

Spot on. With the benefit of hindsight, the Giants game looks like the true red flag. And maybe if we’d lost that game, McDermott would’ve pulled the trigger sooner. But as you point out, we were 4-2 after the win, and the Dolphins game wasn’t too far in the rear view mirror at the time. (And to Dorsey’s credit, our offense legit looked great in that Dolphins game.) It would’ve looked crazy to fire our OC at that point.

I wouldn’t have fired Dorsey this past offseason either. With that said, I definitely had my doubts coming into the season. Dorsey/coaching was my only real concern on offense in preseason. I think I was pretty spot-on. I also think we could’ve benefitted from ditching Dorsey earlier. Some of that is just dumb luck, I think. The Giants game was probably the right time as you say. But rightly or wrongly, firing a coordinator after a win is Simply Not Done, and would present as major organizational dysfunction. And lastly: agreed on the bad hire ultimately going against the HC. Good process can lead to bad results, but that doesn’t mean that negative results can be ignored. Bottom line is that it was an unsuccessful hire, and that responsibility falls on the head coach.

That game has such a weird reputation around it. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Steelers leave their starting O-line in for the entire game? As you pointed out, them playing their 3rd string RB was actually a massive upgrade for them, and Fast Willie Parker capitalized on that game to have a role in the playoffs that year, then went on to be their starting RB for years afterward. Likewise James Harrison - playing "the Steelers backups" was in some ways harder than playing their starters! Obviously not Tommy Maddox so much, but still. I also think that Bills team was somewhat overrated by their winning streak of blowouts against terrible teams that had given up on the season. I'm not saying they sucked, but those blowouts made us look elite in DVOA and other analytics, and I never felt like we were elite that year. Really just a marginal playoff team with good talent and subpar coaching. I'm with you on thinking Fournette will be elevated. You get 3 for the regular season and unlimited in the playoffs, right? With Ty Johnson banged up, it would make a ton of sense to have Fournette active, even if it's just insurance in case Johnson aggravates the injury in game. DaQuan getting activated and taking Phillips' roster spot makes a ton of sense and would be awesome. For some reason, my gut says that DaQuan doesn't play for at least another week, but fingers crossed.

I was one of the many people calling for Dorsey's firing this year, and I'm glad he was fired - the results are clear as day on the field. But some of these people pretending the hire was out of left field or nepotism or whatever? That's weird. Either terrible memories, or just being blinded by pre-existing notions about McDermott. At the time of Daboll's departure, Dorsey was the QB coach who worked with Allen during Allen's meteoric rise. Whoever filled that QB coach spot from 2019-2021 was guaranteed to be a hot name for OC jobs, even without prior OC or playcalling experience. I believe it was widely reported that Daboll offered Dorsey the OC job with the Giants. On top of that, it's typical for a team who loses a coordinator to a HC job to look to promote someone in-house for continuity purposes. Dorsey was the natural and obvious in-house candidate, and had the public endorsement of our star QB. Now, was it a good hire? No, obviously not. Was it in any way controversial at the time? No. Is it possible to guarantee success with any hire? Also no. In hindsight, maybe the Bills should've interviewed some outside candidates, but I don't think it would've made any difference - Dorsey likely would've had the strongest resume regardless of who interviewed. Especially when considering the choice was between "promote Dorsey and backfill QB coach" or "outside hire OC and still backfill QB coach, b/c Dorsey's OC for the Giants." Where I think the Bills/McDermott really went wrong was in bringing back Dorsey for 2023. Behind the scenes, there must have been warning signs in 2022 that Dorsey wasn't going to be the guy. But I also think it's pretty unfair to criticize McDermott for not firing Dorsey after 1 season on the job. If he had, it would've been very controversial and drawn a ton of negative press. Probably would've been the right move in hindsight, but I don't recall seeing a single opinion either in media or on this board calling for Dorsey's dismissal this offseason.

I agree with this. But with that said, one of my takeaways from last year was that our line just wasn't good enough. There's a critical mass of bad OL play, where the QB is hurried on almost every throw. To have a chance at winning in the playoffs, any OL needs to stay above that critical mass, and we didn't last year. I remember at the end of the Bengals playoff loss, telling people that my #1 wish for the offseason was "just an above average line. Doesn't need to be great; I just want it to not suck again." At the current state of the league, I'm a big believer in having a "good enough" line. Meaning good players on reasonable contracts, and any Great players are either on rookie deals, or maybe you've got 1 Great team captain who makes the big bucks. (If the latter, that guy should ideally also be the LT, so that everyone else on the line makes less money.) As great as Quinton Nelson is, I'm skeptical that the Colts can ever build a serious contender while allocating that kind of money to a guard. My philosophy goes double for the Bills, who have an all-world QB who's also one of the most elusive QBs in history. Any 1 defender getting through the line is usually not a problem. If that defender is getting through 80% of the time, it's a problem for sure. But if it's more like 5-6 plays a game, I'll live with that all day. Because usually the results will be something like 1 sack, 2-3 throwaways, and several positive plays either running or passing.

I'm aware, thanks. The point is that Miller is playing a certain % of snaps right now, and Houston isn’t going to get those snaps unless Miller gets a new injury (or is placed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List).

As several posters have mentioned, Baltimore makes a ton of sense, since he used to play there. Didn't he also play for KC not too long ago? I could swear he was with them the year they lost to NE on Dee Ford's Offside penalty, and probably the year after as well. If he wanted to sign with the Bills, I'd have no objection as long as he's got something left in the tank. I think the above 2 are way more likely though, unless maybe either Floyd or Miller got hurt.

Agreed. I was mad when watching it live, but on re-watching the game last night, it was a clear helmet-to-helment hit, and would be called again >90% of the time. You could argue that it's unfortunate for Dodson, because Dak started his slide so late that he basically put his face in the path of Dodson's helmet. But it's the responsibility of the defender not to lower his helmet in the first place. Once he does, he's liable for the consequences of whatever it hits. Speaking of hits, Prescott took a BEATING yesterday. Even outside of the 2 flags. All of our sacks were pretty hard (legal) hits, and the Dodson & Phillips ones were especially hard. Plus he took a couple more shots on scrambles and pressures. His body can't be feeling great yesterday or today.

Because they’re trolling

It seems like you think “the play” was a throw to Davis, and that we should’ve called a play to someone else. That’s not how it works, man. The play will usually have 1st/2nd/3rd reads, but it’s the players on the field - both offense and defense - who ultimately decide where the ball goes, or even if the ball goes anywhere.

Harty: I watcha lot of Saints games, and I liked (not loved) the signing at the time. But Harty looks slower this year, and seems to have no synch with Allen. He’s been pretty good on punt returns, but pretty much a dud at WR. As ineffective as McKenzie was last year, it’s disappointing that Harty hasn’t been an upgrade. Sherfield: I never understood the hype either. With that said, I think it was a significant upgrade over Kumerow in the “backup WR/core special teamer” spot. Which is nice, but doesn’t particularly move the needle on offense.

Phenomenal post, and it really articulates a point that was too often missing from the Dorsey discourse. It drove me nuts hearing people say variations of, “Don’t blame Dorsey; it’s on the players for not executing.” For some things, that’s completely true - Gabe’s dropped pass INT a couple weeks ago for example. But in this case, the problem was that two players weren’t on the same page. Pretty much by definition, that means the offense wasn’t coordinated. And that’s primarily the responsibility of - you guessed it - the offensive coordinator.

FML

This is poor methodology. (Leaving aside for the moment that you can't actually "take away Shakir's big play", because that's not how statistical analysis works.) For an apples to apples comparison, you would need to also take away the biggest offensive play from each other Jets opponent. Since Shakir's TD was the longest passing TD in the league this year, that exercise would presumably still drop us relative to everyone else. But intentionally handicapping 1 team's results while leaving all other team's untouched is disingenuous. Yeah, if you remove the positives from the analysis, what's left will be neutral or negative. No duh, but it doesn't tell us anything.

Agreed. I have zero problem with going shotgun on third or fourth and 3, or even 2. There’s still a threat to run, whether that’s a handoff or a QB run. It’s specifically 1 yard and in where I think it’s criminal to not be under center. We don’t have to sneak it every time, but I want the defense to have to defend the sneak every time. Case in point: The recent game where we had a third or fourth and goal from about the half yard line, right as the quarter ended. They interviewed the opposing coach during the commercial break, and asked him what he thought we were going to do. His response: “I think the quarterback is going to run the ball.” Then we came out in shotgun and eliminated all threat of a sneak. Dumb.

Fair point! My counterpoint: Everyone has seen by now that there’s some heat on McD. Strong chance that the next OC hire is also first in line for the interim HC job if McD gets fired.

Thanks for your response! I appreciate the legwork you did here. I notice that everyone you listed as a peer has won a Super Bowl - not sure if that was intentional or not. And yeah, he doesn’t stack up to those guys at this point. Fully agree with that. The bad news: Out of 3 OC hires, McDermott has made a bad hire twice. The good news for us fans: In both cases, McD recognized his mistake relatively early. The good news for potential OC candidates: This will be the first time the job is open to external candidates AND there’s a franchise QB in place. It’s a much more appealing job than it was in 2017 or 2018. Plus, any serious candidate would likely be an option for interim HC if McDermott was ultimately fired. (Side note: I think the # for Belichick looks off. I’m guessing because they like to not officially name an OC some years? I can think of Weis, McDaniels (who should count as 2, a la Grover Cleveland), BOB, and Patricia off the top of my head, and I feel like I must be missing at least 1-2 more?)

How does that compare to his peers? It doesn’t seem crazy high to me.

Bills 24 Jets 13 I think we see signs of life from the offense, which makes the defense’s job easier. Their D is legitimately great, so I won’t be surprised if we still have a few drives fizzle and don’t hit 30.

Whose job is it to work with Allen on correcting his mistakes? Whose job is it to give Allen feedback on what went wrong and how he can do better next time? Whose in charge of establishing the first read on a given play? Yes, Allen needs to play better. It’s the job of the coaches to facilitate that. Since you know this stuff definitively, I’ll ask you: how was Dorsey working with Allen to correct those mistakes? Was Dorsey just yelling at Allen to do better, or was he giving actionable feedback in a way that clicked for Allen? Also, how did you manage to sneak into the room for all these meetings without being caught?

It’s weird that the two military veterans were both comparing McD’s “accountability” to military structures, when we’re really talking about public statements in press conferences. Maybe I’m way off, but I don’t think the top brass does much in the way of explaining F-ups to the public when they happen. I was under the impression that that sort of accountability was mostly handled away from the public eye. We fans ARE the public eye. I forgot to add my two cents about McDermott in my last post, so I’ll do it here. Number one thing for me: I don’t see how firing McD this week gets us into the playoffs this year. If/when we’re mathematically eliminated? Go for it. But as long as there’s a chance of us making a run, we need to maximize that chance. (With the caveat that if he’s lost the team a la Josh McDaniels and the Raiders, he has to go right away. None of us can know that from out here, though.) I wasn’t a McDermott fan from the start, but he generally won me over. @Shaw66 made some great arguments around McD’s leadership and ability to establish a winning culture. And I saw for myself an ability to learn from his mistakes. That’s extremely important to me, because everyone will make mistakes whether you like it or not. As much as I HATED it when he benched Tyrod for Peterman, I ultimately gained some respect for McD in the aftermath. Why? Because he admitted he made a mistake and apologized to the team, and course-corrected afterwards. There are other examples, but this post is long enough already. With all that said, I think the blunder on Monday night hits the level of a fireable offense pretty much on its own. And to some extent, I think @GunnerBill is right that McD might have too much on his gameday plate. I wouldn’t mind it if he handed off defensive play calling to one of his assistants to let him be just a head coach during the game.

Great post @Shaw66 - you set a high bar and this one easily cleared it. Also some great counter-arguments in this thread as well with some valid points. My two cents: Firing Dorsey, in hindsight, was overdue. I would’ve been fine canning him after the Bengals game, or at least stripping him off play calling duties, but McD is more conservative than I am, so Dorsey got an extra week. I wish Dorsey the best, but he had to go. Will it help? We’ll find out soon enough. I think it’ll help at least somewhat, but I don’t think it’ll be a panacea. The defense and special teams are bad. The defense somehow manages to hold up for long stretches every week, but they don’t have the talent to get stops when we need them. We need an offense that can get 30 most weeks in spite of bad field position, and put us up 2 scores or more when the opposing team gets the ball for the last time.

I voted No, but that’s meant as a snapshot of right now. There’s still time for McD to change my mind. The 12 man penalty costing us that game is a fireable offense IMO. But with no clear replacement on staff, there’s no point in firing him now - that won’t get us into the playoffs. If we stay on roughly this trajectory, McD should be fired as soon as we’re mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. If we turn it around, I’m open to bringing him back, depending on the specifics of the turnaround.

McD for sure. Look at his immediate postgame comments from the last few game - especially last week. Contrast those with the ones from earlier in the year. He’s been unhappy with the offense for a while, getting unhappier every week, and it showed after the game last week. McD usually goes out of his way to never criticize anyone publicly. IMO McD hasn’t been shy about telling Dorsey this stuff in private, and Dorsey knew the Broncos game was his last chance. McD remains overly loyal, and probably gave Dorsey one chance too many. But I’m glad he pulled the trigger now instead of waiting for the bye. The offense has no excuse for being this disjointed every game.