BillsVet

At this point, Buffalo could probably receive 8th round picks for both. In 2025.

Take a top 5 QB from the starting roster and the skill positions look a whole lot different. Are you honestly comparing a LB, S, C, OT, and WR with someone like Andrew Luck or Cam Newton? That somehow those positions have the value one of those QBs has to their team? I know you're looking for any excuse to show that 2019 is surely different, but we don't know yet. It's okay to wait and see before declaring the team on the glide path to the playoffs. For the record, here's Buffalo's results from the last 5 pre-seasons: 2018 2-2 83 PF 88 PA (final season record 6-10) 2017 1-3 62 PF 67 PA (final record 9-7) 2016 1-3 55 PF 71 PA (final record 7-9) 2015 2-2 88 PF 71 PA (final record 8-8) 2014 1-4 63 PF 104 PA (final record 9-7)

They had a major need at center, knew about Morse's concussion history, and still went forward with the contract. (Cue someone to say Beane didn't know he'd get another concussion). People here talk about Beane's management of the cap and how he maneuvered the team into a solid position after Whaley. Yet, he's the guy who signed players like Star to a bloated contract, gave a thrice concussed Morse a big contract, and traded for Benjamin who flamed out fast. He may not be as bad as Dugout Doug 2013-2016, but he's showing signs his command of personnel and dollars isn't as great as advertised. For McBeane's sake, they'd better be a 10 or more win team this year. Because not doing so is going to shine a bigger spotlight onto the whiffs in free agency.

Nah, he'd get the starting gig the following season.

Ever consider that teams ran the ball on Buffalo because they didn't need to throw it? The home LA Chargers game last year by halftime it was 28-6 and LAC were simply running out the clock. Same thing happened in 2010 during the ill-fated first year trying to run a 30 front under Nix and Gailey. Buffalo was dead last in rushing yards allowed, but miraculously 3rd in pass defense yards allowed. Funny how that works.

The top 10 defenses in yards allowed managed to win all of 2 playoff games last year (4 made the post-season). The top 10 defenses in points allowed won 6 playoff games (7 made the post-season). Half of those were from NE. A stellar defense combined with a pedestrian offense does not move a team deep into the playoffs. While people get excited about defense, it's not as important as being able to consistently put up points. The question is, does building a balanced team that emphasizes defense work in an offensive driven league. And how much does investing in defense impact the ability to feature a high scoring offense. Defense is over-rated and yet, Buffalo seems to think it's as important if not more to success. Because that's how McBeane are building this roster.

That's what happens when you let Jerruh run the organization. They haven't won the SB in almost 25 years. I'd tell Dak to just sign up for more Chunky Soup commercials. It did wonders for Donovan McNabb's career. Or, I'd make the offer for 25M per with the qualification that this means they can't sign Elliott. Or, he can go for 16M per and they keep his RB, who makes him look much better than he really is.

Buffalo didn't shell out big dollars on Morse, Brown, and Beasley to go along with Spain, Feliciano, and Long on shorter deals to have a "balanced" offense. Expectations for this team are once again all about making the playoffs and this lowering of the standard is a means of hedging bets in the event the season unravels into mediocrity or worse. They didn't do a complete tear down of the roster over 3 seasons to be middling. Once again, I'm going to point to objective evidence in my critique of McCoach. He's 15-17 career and has had a huge influence, perhaps more than any other Bills HC, on the roster. Yet, his offensive decision making is extremely suspect, highlighted by who they've played at QB, the devaluing of offense in years 1 and 2 to pursue defense, and the results bear this out. Bottom line is, McD is underestimated because he's 15-17 and was blown out 6 times last season (at BAL, SD, at GB, at IND, NE, CHI) against two decisive wins (at MIN, at NYJ). You'll notice that 3 of those losses were home and none of their big wins were. Now you're telling us that because McD is defensive minded that somehow equates to knowing offense? Based on what? It sure looks like anything but the opposite. Still, this is based on evidence, not what one wants to think. Frankly, I don't understand how people can know so much that isn't so.

And yet, some fans think this spending spree and a big armed young QB somehow will lead to a high-flying aerial offense. I'll believe it when I see it. I thought it was noteworthy that McD came out at the combine after weeks of radio silence and talked about needing to score at least 21 points per. No doubt he understood he's criticized for being a defensive based HC and wanted to pre-emptively blunt any talk of what he really is. I predict McCoach will fall back on what he's comfortable with, the offense will be run based and feature 20-25 mostly safe throws with a reliance on the defense to keep teams to ~20 points per. Not a whole lot different than his predecessors.

Have never understood why McBeane equally prioritize receiving and blocking skills. That mindset eliminates prospects who may offer something in the receiving game and can improve on blocking technique. To that point, Knox sounds like he is an adept blocker, but struggles with injuries and of course that occurred in TC. At this point, I'd say the best TE in franchise history was Ernie Warlick and we're going back 50+ years. Not surprisingly, they didn't take a TE in the 3rd or higher since 2006 until this year as several teams valued finding a top receiver type.

Collective Bills' fan anxiety increases every year. Now, it's spread to what happens if the backup QB gets hurt...with a healthy Josh Allen. LOL In keeping with that topic, what happens if the holder gets hurt? What happens if Daboll goes back to Alabama? What if Terry Pegula's head melts off his head? This is the appropriate time to say, "Don't worry, be happy"

Amateur and Pro offensive personnel decisions under McBeane were mediocre in 2017-18. I put much of that on McD's decision to rebuild the defense first, which left fewer UFA dollars for offense. It's why the offense was historically inept last season. It's not just letting Watkins and Woods go. It's not just starting Peterman to begin 2018. It's not just the 2017 and 18 UFA groups. It's that they thought they could get by offensively without really investing in upgrades on that side of the ball the first 2 off-seasons of this rebuild. The 2019 offensive UFAs better be a home run to make up for the previous 2 years. Kroft and Morse being hurt this early is another red flag on this leadership group. I get that people want to trust these guys until it's abundantly clear they failed. They talk a good game, but a fan can start hedging their bets on McBeane three off-seasons into their tenure.

Think Beane invested 11M per and hedged that bet with two guys on effectively 1 year deals? The Trent Williams train derailed before you posted that thread the other day. It has nothing to do with their situation at center. They're not adding that salary for a veteran player with an injury history on a team that's invested high picks in Dawkins, Ford, and UFA dollars for Nsekhe.

No QB? Two QBs were on the board at 10 in 2017 when McD elected to trade down. Say no one knew those 2 would be very good to outstanding. Or, that we needed a CB (after letting Gilmore walk). Say whatever you want. The HC abdicated on a decision to find a QB to put behind TT in 2017 so that he could draft a defensive player. You don't delay drafting a QB. You get aggressive because it's the major difference between mediocrity and success. Their rebuild has failed if they go 8-8 in 2019. By comparison, their predecessors first 3 years (2013-15 Whaley/Marrone/Rex) had the same record (23-25) and we know how that story ended. If you're not improving, then it's regression. And after clearing all the dead cap unwanted players, drafting their franchise QB, investing significantly in the defense, and buying much of their offense I'd say 8-8 is failure for that reason. As for continuity, a lot of you don't understand how the corporate world works. If you don't get results quickly, you're toast. It's why senior executives have a limited shelf life if their departments aren't meeting objectives and the NFL is not much different. Three years is an eternity to get results, as evidenced by the multiple teams who've succeeded without following the McBeane self-imposed tear-down script.

Ownership sees the same things fans do. And I doubt the former would ignore the latter if results truly matter.

"Short timeframe?" Two off-seasons and 32 games into McBeane's tenure is not what I consider short, particularly when you're 15-17. It's almost necessary for most franchises to rebuild quickly because their fan base will not tolerate a 6-10 with little on offense in the second year. For comparisons sake, here's 7 teams in recent years who far exceeded Buffalo's 15-17 start: KC: 2-14 in 2012, goes 31-17 from 2013-15 with 2 playoff appearances HOU: 2-14 in 2013, goes 27-21 from 2014-16 with 2 playoff appearances LAC: 5-11 in 2016, goes 21-11 in 2017-18 with 1 playoff appearance that saw them advance to AFC Championship PHI: 7-9 in 2015, goes 29-19 in 2016-18 with 2 playoff appearances including a SB win MIN: 5-10-1 in 2013, goes 26-22 first 3 seasons with 1 playoff appearances LAR: 4-12 in 2016, goes 24-8 first 2 seasons with 2 playoff appearances with a SB appearance SEA: 5-11 in 2009, goes 25-23 first 3 seasons with 2 playoff appearances and a SB in year 5 None of those teams decided to spend 2 seasons on a complete tear down. McBeane don't get credit for slow-walking a rebuild, but I can tell you their seat is warming if this team doesn't get off to a good start after that off-season and having so much trust from ownership.

So many reasons not to trade for Williams. First, is you invested a 2nd round pick in Dawkins to be, apparently, your LT. Pushing your drafted players down the (edit: depth) chart on team-friendly contracts in favor of a 10th year veteran getting paid big dollars is not a solid idea. And then there's compensation. People throw 3rd round picks around here like they're nothing. All for a guy who has a lot of mileage on him. Sometimes I think fans here think NFL teams are built like their fantasy roster. With random and out of left-field strategy.

Tre must be using this as a negotiating tactic in advance of contract extension talks after his season. Not sure how this works in his favor, but maybe Beane can highlight this when talks open up.

Talent trumps chemistry every time, although with a HC who is a strong leader and understands his people assembling multiple big talent players with egos can work. Let's wait and see if Freddie Kitchens has the ability to manage these egos before predicting they'll crash and burn. Ultimately, I think criticism of teams like Cleveland (at this point) is a sort of Bills fan inferiority complex. It's so predictable here over the years for some fans to try and drag down other teams because the Bills aren't exceptionally talented. They do have players with potential, but no All-Pro caliber and few Pro Bowl players yet. People hope young players like Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, and Tre will become that, but they're not proven. We're going to find out this year whether McBeane's roster (and it's theirs now) has the talent to win 10+ games and get to the playoffs. Because having lesser talented players who buy-in to the HC's culture isn't enough to do that.

The late 80s/early 90s Bills managed pretty well with several egos.

Let's be clear. In 2017, McDermott drafted: 1. A good zone CB after trading out of 10 with a major issue at QB and 2 on the board. Nice player for sure, but isn't better than the guy he replaced in Gilmore. 2. A WR who collects his stats when games are out of control and will compete with a UDFA to play behind two 2019 UFAs. Not better than Robert Woods and that's not changing. 3. A LT who took a step back in his second season. 4. A talented Will that has ended his first 2 seasons on the IR. It's not the foundational draft that some here talked about it being. Still, drafts can artificially look good when you've got 1-2 more high round picks. This reminds me of 2006 when people championed that draft early, but saw the careers of Whitner, McCargo, Youboty, and Ko Simpson either flat line or plateau into average. Long term, only Kyle Williams was an impact player. The 2017 class isn't a home run - at least not yet. If McCoach's seat starts getting warmer, the refusal to take a QB in '17 will take on a lot more focus.

We're going to find out this season whether the McBeane strategy to invest big draft resources in their defensive players will pan out. This is year 3 of McD and him building his defense and he can't afford guys like Edmunds not playing at anything less than a Pro Bowl level. Lotta hype and hope this time of year.

I guess that means the kids are taking over for the adults.

The lengths you'll go to excuse players who've not proven themselves is amazing. Writing off 2 off-seasons for Zay? If you're doing that, may as well do it for every player who undergoes off-season surgery. Morse, Beasley, and others have had procedures done that have impacted their prep for 2019. Can we apply the same perspective to them? Frankly, I don't care what ZJ did at Coastal Carolina. As a noted poster refers to him here, "Drop-Zone" Jones has a looooong way to go before securing even a supporting role on this team. A quick review of his 2018 output reveals ZJ accumulated much of his stats when games were out of hand. His 2 biggest games took place in blowout wins at NYJ and versus MIA. And worse, when Allen started to show some signs of his potential late in the season, Zay wasn't exactly his guy and that remained the case in the final 6 games of the season. Over those contests, ZJ was targeted 43 times by Allen and managed 19 receptions for 260 yards. For a guy late into his 2nd season that's not exactly what you look for in a 2nd round pick they traded up for. And, this season those short yardage catches ZJ's been making are going to start heading Beasley's way. The question is, where does ZJ fit in with Brown, Beasley, and Foster on this roster? I'm guessing if he doesn't show some significant improvement in camp he'll be finding himself 4th or 5th on the depth chart, particularly if Foster continues to excel.

Except no one in the NFL does a complete tear-down when it's not required. This reminds me of a Bum Phillips quote about Bear Bryant: "Bryant can take his'n and beat your'n, aand then he can turn around and take your'n and beat his'n." Yet, in Buffalo McD couldn't win long term without eliminating all the difficult personalities from OBD. Most fans don't get that taking 2 years to get ready to compete is a waste as evidenced by the fact that solid organizations simply don't do it. They take what they've got and make the most of it, using roster tweaks and changing the roster over time. No one blows it up and then sells the fan base on how necessary it was to shed so much salary so quickly. Let us "complainers" know when you're going to have a decent take. 43k+ posts and I can't remember the last good one.