BillsVet

They spend months evaluating their season, identifying areas of improvement and personnel priorities, strategizing, and setting up their board. To conclude from one carefully edited video anything concrete is unrealistic. That board is built after all that off-season self-analysis is complete. Tendencies have merged from several drafts and UFA signings now. Sometimes, what they say offers insight into their overall strategy, like McD saying they want to run the ball better ever since the 2020 season ended. Those tendencies are out in the open now...like not taking WR/TE in 2021-22 and being forced to by 2023-24. Or seeing Brady get them in the second half of the 2023 season back to evening out the run to pass ratio. I'd argue the overall vision is pretty consistent pre-Josh becoming a franchise guy compared to now. This isn't about a RD4 RB or a RD5 C either. It's about their vision, which on offense doesn't come off as innovative. It's safe, and that's a characteristic McD has been since Day 1.

On X, Sharp followed up that this stat was since 2020, not 2000. That said, the strategy to just have Josh elevate everyone around him...I think he's done that about as much as you can ask a NFL QB to do. It's a risky strategy just expecting him to do that each and every year. If that's gonna be the case this season, he cannot be hurt or they go into the tank fast.

What is Anquan Boldin doing these days?

The issue is philosophical now and has been for a few years. This latest draft put it out in the open, but it's actually been a common theme McBeane's whole 7 years. First thing McD was saying after the 2020 Bills scored 500 points and made the AFC CG was he thought the offense needed to run it better. In the ensuing 2 drafts they used 0 picks in RD1-3 on WR or TE as Brown and Beasley declined. And they did run the ball decent later, but the offense was overall worse because their passing game declined. Compare their scoring from 2020 to 2021 to 2022 to last season. I'd expect a team to revisit their philosophy every off-season and ask whether it's working. This team though has a habit of running things back because innovating isn't their strong suit. 3 straight divisional round losses point to it not being. I think @Kirby Jackson had it right that anyone could get this team to 10-11 wins and perhaps 1 playoff win with Josh. Besides, the people who lazily compare this result to the drought years are just spewing sophistry into the discussion. It's not an either or of the drought performance or this. It's about getting beyond where they've been 3 years running and winning the SB. If you're content with increasingly worse divisional round losses, then go for it. Most fans with Josh aren't anymore.

Khalil Shakir is becoming the Bills equivalent of Bill Brasky. Every time the TBD'ers mention his name it's on some level of magnitude greater than the last time. It's funny, but so TBD. By the time camp rolls around I'm sure someone will project him as an All-Pro. "To Khalil Shakir!"

What is the impact of a Diggs-less, offense? That is the key question almost no one is considering. He was their best and most versatile receiver that defenses keyed on. Sure, down the stretch he wasn't the biggest factor, but now that he's gone, it's not just replacing his production. I laugh at people who assume that minus Diggs' targets, they'll just be equally spread among those remaining without any drop in production. Every one of their receivers AND Josh now doesn't have the benefit of Diggs drawing the opponents best corner. C I'm not on this board to massage fan feelings about the team. This years' offense given their current skill types will be slower, closer to the LOS, and more predictable. They were trending that way at the end of last season trying to balance the run with the pass. Josh only threw for more than 300 yards 2x out of the 9 games Brady was OC and one of those was the OT loss to Philadelphia. And when they don't have the solid pass offense, it'll bleed over into the run eventually.

I'm not your wife/GF, so I don't need to hear you out. The Bills do not seem interested in featuring a high-cost WR anymore for cap reasons. Because they won't have enough room to pay Josh, a non-rookie contract WR1, and providing all the pieces to McD's defense. I said around 2021 here that something would have to give eventually with their UFA spending, getting the pieces to the defense McD expects, and paying Josh. We're at that point now. You and many others are rationalizing what they've done and manufactured into why it's right. We're going to find out, but there is no proven deep threat on the roster and having watched this team, the more questions you have entering the season, the slimmer your margin for error is. Even with a franchise QB. It is a question how a flex TE who averaged 9 yards per catch last year suddenly becomes their deep threat. And none of Samuel, Shakir, or Hollins are that guy really. They don't offer the versatility, they don't separate, and their limited to being short to intermediate guys against Everyone expects these WR's will get production and people will move up to the next position on the depth chart seamlessly. Big ask for guys who've never been covered by the opponent's top DB's.

Yeah, you've framed the debate around winning when Mahomes has 3 of the last 5. Making the SB, there's Hurts with AJ Brown and D. Smith. Cincinnati with Burrow having Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Goff in 2019 with R. Woods, Cooks, and Kupp. If you're talking about making a CG, there's Purdy having McCaffrey, D. Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle. Even Buffalo did that with Diggs, J. Brown, and Beasley in 2020. It's pretty common to put receiving options, UFA or drafted, around a younger QB to accelerate the development and increase chance of offensive success. Buffalo made sure Josh had better targets in 2019-20, but stopped adding in 2021-22.

If the last 9 games under Brady are any indication, at a minimum they'll be more balanced. In those games, they ran it 331 times versus 311 passes (including sacks taken). Maybe some wiggle room with Josh taking off on a pass play, but that's a 51.5-48.5% run to pass ratio. By comparison with Dorsey, it was 254 runs to 363 passes from games 1-10, or a 41-59% run to pass ratio. Whether or not that will be as successful with their personnel group is another question entirely.

Ironic that their defense has been well-defined since Day 1 of this regime schematically and in personnel. Offense, not so much. I think McD has always wanted a strong(er) running game, because he prioritizes the offense along what he fears most on defense. And his defense can be susceptible to a strong running game. Still, that's maybe not ideal given league-wide trends that favor passing and who he has at QB. Problem is, the OC's he hired all saw they had Josh Allen and weren't going to avoid using him like Brady seems willing to given the priorities and lack of complete passing options. Issue with this offense...it's safe and predictable. Running the ball complemented with a short to intermediate passing game and personnel to match. The quick-strike ability doesn't fit with reducing the defense's time on field. Then again, that's the HC. He plays it safe on draft day with Beane. Safe offense. A defense that is structured, but the scheme hasn't changed much in years. Safe gets you perhaps into the playoffs, but not much further as demonstrated by the past few years.

The defense is a part of the discussion because it doesn't have built-in durability. From 2017-23, they relied on veterans who had the experience, but had/have a lot of mileage on them and would get banged up. And then there's the LB's who, while good in coverage, don't hold up with both missing key games. I'm really not surprised they put another body at S, LB, and CB given the rampant injuries there. And that naturally spills over into how they scheme the offense, which when the defense is banged up, has the brakes put on it. Only now, the skilled receiving talent hinges on improvement from 2nd and 3rd year guys, a WR who might be a big slot type, and a having a strong running game. Difference this season is, I don't see anyone who can threaten deep. And, I'm not expecting their OL to be as healthy as they were last year. For Buffalo to win using this method against top teams, everything has to go right. The offense needs to get leads allowing the defense to play downhill and force teams to throw into that zone. When it works, it's great...but when it doesn't, things get ugly. You end up with Josh lugging it as Brady and his two predecessors needed.

Yeah, to run as fast after multiple IR stints, off-season surgeries, and the wear and tear of a 16-17 game schedules. Even WR's who aren't making contact every play, you still have a guy like Curtis Samuel with more than 4,000 snaps taken in his career.

This was the "take your medicine" draft for McD and Beane after years of predominantly mediocre UFA decisions and meh drafts. Taking Josh in 2018 and fitting a lot of UFAs around him accelerated their rebuild. Job accomplished. But what McBeane have demonstrated is they could not maintain that because they relied so heavily on higher priced UFAs/trades, notably at DL, OL, and WR. They kicked the can down the road often through frequent re-structuring. I'd argue it's harder to maintain a top team than it is to rebuild, but that task is made harder when you're trying to be solid across on both sides. Point is, you can't build out a complete team in this era and gotta prioritize. And you must draft well or else it leads to UFA spending that eventually catches up with you. That happened this season. Everyone here who follows the league understands the Bills are swimming against the current balancing the team between defense and offense. Hoping to break the mold at WR featuring a bunch of small and big slot types who will operate closer to the LOS. Expecting the defense to remain healthy into the playoffs and as effective there as they typically are in the regular season. It might be a "transition" season, but it was coming. This isn't a discussion about individual players. It's whether or not, once again, their plan is appropriate. We're going to see.

It will be interesting how teams prepare defensively for Buffalo with all these short to intermediate options. They might not need to play much 2 deep because there's no threat deep and can afford to cheat up even on PA. At least not one who's done it, despite having the QB with the strongest arm in the league. Also puts the running game at a deficit being so predictable throwing it.

And when they don't meet expectations, he offers a weak excuse like not being able to draft a JaMarr Chase-type WR because their QB was healthy. A fan can live with that if there's improvement the following season, but that didn't happen in 2023. It was same old, same old. I've always wondered when Beane would come to the realization that being tied at the hip of McDermott was an anchor on his career. Because as much as McD got him this job, it's McD whose plan largely drives personnel decisions. And, that plan does not seem to consider that Josh could want out because his career is physically and competitively being hampered by McBeane.