Koufax

We do not trade up to get the 5th best QB. We trade up when we think one of the five QBs who has fallen to a spot is better than fifth best. A minor but important distinction. I can't remember any draft where the fifth best QB was any good, but I can remember some where the fifth QB chosen was really good. Obvious example is 1983 where Elway went #1, but then Blackledge was picked at #7 before Kelly went #14, then Eason and O'Brien before Marino went #27. So that is a draft where there were hall of famers available in the teens and the twenties, but getting the 5th best QB wasn't a good idea, but being better in your ranking and projections of the top three QBs you like than other teams were was the secret. I don't even remotely consider trading up if we aren't getting someone we think is one of the top three QBs in this draft, but we also hope other teams make mistakes and our #4 and #5 rated QBs get picked earlier than someone in our top 3. But there is just about never a case where there end up being more than three good QBs in a draft, so unless you think you are getting one of YOUR top three, I don't see any reason to draft a QB in the first. In 2004 we picked the 4th best QB in a three QB draft. We can read the tea leaves better and smarter than other teams and laugh when they pick Blackledge and we get Kelly, but while the 5th best WR or LB or RB can often be a very useful player, I'm not aware of any time where the 5th best QB was a useful player.

I think we need a tall wide receiver like James Hardy and probably a DT for our scheme like Torell Troup. If you draft for need, you end up with inferior football players and other needs. Just keep getting the best players you can and fill needs with free agency. The one place this is different is if you need a QB and you see one you can get. That is different and if McD and company see any of these guys as a franchise QB they should try to get them if the likelihood and cost match up.

I definitely don't like Rosen or Darnold enough to Kings Ransom to the top two spots. I think Mayfield will be better than either of them in the NFL and has more Brees than Manziel in his future, but he could end up going too high to get (but if the coaches agree with me on him, they should definitely try to move up for him). And while I like Alex Smith or Kirk Cousins on our team next year, neither is the long term answer. If either is a realistic possibility they can certainly be a stop gap that allows us to not do any crazy mortgage-the-future trades for non-slam-dunk QB prospects, but we really need to draft someone we think can be an Elite NFL QB in the next couple drafts either way, and if we identify someone in this draft that fits that, starting early and doing it with a lot of draft capital is better than waiting for the next draft or the one after that.

This. The stuff you don't like is what happens around the current rule. If you knew the worst you could get was 15, defensive players would be way more deliberately aggressive and deep passes would go down a TON. Not what the NFL wants or the fans want.

Have to identify where we value each of these imperfect players relative to the NFL and see how that fits together. Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, Jackson, Rudolph all could be a consideration to be the top guy from this draft when all is said and done, and someone in that group will go in the top couple picks and someone in that group will still be available at #21. In addition to that group is the Alex Smith Kirk Cousins option which is a stopgap, but prevents a giant reach/gamble if the chips don't play out right. I don't know that any of those guys really feel like the guy to trade in to the top three slots and pay the draft capital to do so. Right now I'm most interested in Mayfield especially with his chances of falling out of the top ten, although I think as time presses on he will likely see his stock rise and cost more to go up and get. But to the prices to pay, if there is a guy we want to move up, I think that a franchise QB is worth a lot more than when we moved to pick Watkins over Odell, and I don't mind if we pay a price for the right guy. I'm just not sure I see that big move to move up guy, and point to what Washington gave up to move up to #2 for RGIII with tons of picks to do so, only to also take Cousins at #102 and we saw how that played out in the big picture.

I love Peterman as a serviceable backup, and maybe his future can be brighter than that as some backups end up being, but he is not ready to be handed the keys. Excited to have him on the roster, but more Frank Reich than Jim Kelly.

I love Tyrod, and he is a class guy and gives his all. We can't all be elite NFL QBs no matter how hard we try, But he protected the ball, gave up his body, and exceeded both his draft slot and free agency cost, and got us to the playoffs however much of the credit he deserves or doesn't. We were still alive with one minute left in a playoff game, and only eight teams. By the way of the eight teams left that did better than we did this year, four have first round QBs, two have HOF QBs, plus Keenum and Foles who are playing because of injuries and haven't won a playoff game yet. Thanks Tyrod, and we hope you are okay after that final play, and if that was your last snap as a Bill, we wish you well the rest of your career.

Well, two good things for the Bills came out of last night: 1) Some missed plays in the second half might have people doubt Mayfield more than if he kept rolling like the first half. 2) He doesn't get to play in the championship game and do something else to increase his draft stock. Now, did he get any better or worse in this game? No. He is the same player he was last week, and still someone I would love to have and really hope we draft. Leadership, Decision Making, Accuracy are all clearly there, and I actually like him more than Watson who I really wished we had taken at #10 at the time. So if the Bills leadership agrees on how good the player was three days ago, the fact that he didn't write any legend stuff yesterday to increase his stock is fine with me. I can see him available at our first pick happens without trading up, but I would also be fine trading up if necessary.

I am a huge fan the more I see. Much more Wilson or Brees than he is Manziel. I like him more than Darnold definitely and I think he will be better than Rosen (who will be good). Hoping like Brees and Wilson he falls out of the top of the draft, but I would happily go up for him. Maybe not the ransom to get to the top three but he is the player we want. Hoping his perceived flaws let him fall despite his big spotlight success like Watson last year. The top three attributes for a quarterback are decision making, accuracy, and leadership. You can do just fine without a Ryan Leaf arm or Jamarcus Russell hands or Brock Osweiler height Let's do it..

Raiders block a field goal attempt and get the ball at the Chargers 30 after it bounces around!

A three time zone road game against a playoff contending opponent? I am happy to point to any of our seven losses in the event we come up short on Sunday, but the Chargers game is not the one at the top of my list, despite the Peterman debacle. Three games you really want back are: @Jets: As their 2-8 stretch to drop to 5-10 has shown, the Jets are beatable, and that's our worst loss of the season Bengals: On the road, but that team is 6-9, and that's the kind of game you have to win. @Chargers: a team that is better than it seemed like at the time, obviously there is the Peterman issue, but this was a tough game to win by a lot more than what Peterman counted for. And the four losses that I can live with and would have been the four in a 12-4 awesome season: Panthers: Tough road game against a team otherwise 11-4. Winnable because of the things that went right, but that is a really good team and av ery tough place to play, so as many individual plays you can say what if in our favor, there are as many you could say what if against us. Saints: 11-4 team on a huge roll at the time. Painful score, but that is a loss I can live with. Patriots: Ugly loss at home, but we aren't at the Patriot's level yet, so any victory against them is a big upset @Patriots: Replay debacle and still tied in the third quarter, but in a 15-1 wild imaginary dream season this is our one loss.

You are kidding and trolling right? No 8-7 team with a playoff chance should try to get to 8-8 to pick at 13 instead of 17. News flash for people, despite all the positives that we showed that we could play against the toughest enemy on the road, and the plays that went against us turned around, yet were in the second half with a chance to make some plays and win. Now we can play meaningful football down to the final snap of the season and have two plausible paths to the playoffs in Kyle Williams' last chance, and you are hoping to lose and get a higher pick? If we had a 14-2 season, this game would have likely been one of the two. Not stopping Dion Lewis was my big frustration in this game (along with a bunch of little things). Tanking is such an overrated thing by casual fans. The Astros actually didn't really do it well in MLB, and didn't rely on top picks in the draft (including taking Mark Appel ahead of Kris Bryant with one of their famous #1s?). So keep thinking that Brown - ing your way to competitiveness is better than building a winning culture and drafting and signing smartly in the off season. Let's play for 9-7 and let the chips fall where they may. Go Bills.

So things are really settling in, it is fun to be in the playoff hunt again in the final two weeks, and not needing a miracle for it to happen. Winning in Miami is obviously the key, and until a stunning upset is actually final, I think we should count a loss to the Patriots as well, so all planning is around 9-7. EITHER Any loss by the Chargers (@Jets, Oak) or Ravens (Ind, Cin) in those four remaining games almost ensures we win a 9-7 tie breaker. (we need 1 of 4 to go our way) OR If all four of those results go against us we would need KC to lose two (Mia, @Den) or the Titans to beat Rams and lose to Jax. (we would need 4 of 4 to go our way) 538 has us around 60% chance of making it at 9-7, with Indy beating Baltimore (very unlikely) the only game that has a huge benefit to us, with all the others helping one scenario but potentially hurting another so limiting their impact. Also, correct me if I am wrong, but there are ZERO scenarios that could eliminate us this weekend before we head to Miami right? And with the Chargers as a late game that final weekend, there is ZERO chance we can be eliminated by scoreboard watching while we are playing to victory over Miami? But it would take Jets over Chargers or Indy over Ravens THIS weekend for us to have a win and in scenario without scoreboard watching next weekend? And while some people might not BILLieve right now, I'm all in on the kool aid and pixie dust to get Kyle Williams to the playoffs.

It is a fun novelty that it is possible with only five involved games left, and even funnier that it could still be a possibility on Christmas eve with only three outcomes necessary for it to happen and eight days left in the season. But pipe dreams aside, if the Patriots lose back to back home games to the Bills and Jets to drop to 10-6, lose the division, and end the season on a four game losing streak, is is like the ninth sign of the apocalypse and none of us will be around to enjoy it. We might as well beat the Dolphins anyway and then root for the Steelers, since that's what we want to do on Sunday anyway...

Doh! Someone still in on the draft position myth! Winning football games is good. Having a bad year has its hidden benefits, but I would much rather draft like the Ravens or Bengals than draft like the Browns. My ultimate goal is to draft like the Patriots/Seahawks/Steelers. Winning nine games is GREAT and great for this team and its short term future. "trust the process" through 76ers like garbage seasons is harder than "we are actually a decent football team on the cusp". Anybody who thinks the 17 year drought is because we didn't get bad enough first doesn't understand the modern NFL. The 17 year drought is because we didn't get good enough and never managed to build off an upswing. Looking to next year, coming off a 9-7 season that is a couple Ravens losses (Steelers and Bengals?) away from being good enough for the playoffs, having tons of draft picks, and entering the second year of a regime that has built trust and excitement in the locker room and schemes more familiar, is the best place to be. 4-12 would have been the disaster for the next three years, and while we could live with it and survive it, 9 wins is just better.

Cautiously optimistic. This Chiefs team is 1-4 over their last four, including losing to the GIANTs when coming off of their bye week. Tyrod is back, but Dareus is still in Jacksonville. Arrowhead is always a tough place to play, and adding Revis today certainly won't hurt their defense. Our last three game performance is as irrelevant as our first seven, and same for the Chiefs. We are the weaker of the two teams and they are playing at home, but it is close enough that a decent performance from the defense, a solid Tyrod, and a big Shady and we have a great chance. I don't think McD's defense gets shredded for the fourth straight game, and I think KC's run defense bodes well for Shady.

Dareus gone has crushed us clearly more than many thought. DT is a tough position to casually evaluate, and clearly he was doing better than we realized. Taking a rookie and getting him back on his heels with a off the hands pick 6 is tough. The second INT had a deeper receiver open, he just couldn't get enough on it under that pressure. I thought he was in worse shape on the live play, but he actually had room to step right up in the pocket, which would have been a much better decision than thinking he has enough arm on his back foot to make that work. Not talking Tyrod elusive, but can't you see Brady or Ryan feeling the pressure and taking that one step forward before unleashing a deep ball? I'm not saying that third pro drive getting an Ingram/Bosa sandwich is an easy place to make snap decisions. But knowing he lacks the big star back foot arm or escabability, these types of decisions will be key to his success as a pocket passer, and this was more of a decision making/feel failure than I think many people have labeled it. His receiver had a step on a wide open middle of the field, and maybe at the time he started his release, he felt he had enough time for a clean release it would have taken to get the ball six or seven yards deeper, but edge pressure from both sides like that is something he has probably never had a single snap of experience, and the game moved a little too fast for him.

If you can get a QB worth getting, you get him. If you can't, you get the best overall talent with the picks you have and improve the team around Tyrod on the hopes you can get a QB worth getting the following draft.

Do you think it was dangerously inaccurate throws where the throw was the correct decision at the time he threw it? Or bad decisions by a gunslinger without an accurate gun? My top two QB attributes are decision making and accuracy (Brees, Brady, Montana, Manning). Everything else is tied for seventh. My cautiously optimistic about Peterman on both of these things, and thought his completion percentage on balls that were thrown 15+ yards stat was a potentially interesting and useful one (he was highest in power five conference for that). I think Tyrod's accuracy looked a little better than it actually was because of his "I'm not a gunslinger" mentality where he wouldn't attempt the medium range tight window throws. Check downs to wide open, scramble, or the only my receiver can catch it bombs. His legs were undoubtedly a good tool, but most of his value was his running threat, and short passes to open receivers without turning the ball over. I think that is a tough combo to build a winner around, and while I have enjoyed our five wins this year, none of his nine starts has lead me to believe he is something different from when I thought we should replace him with Watson at #10. If Peterman can show decision making and accuracy, he can be successful, and more successful than Tyrod. If he can't, we have a clearer sense of what we have, and who should be the interim QB if we draft our future QB without him being ready to play.

Garbage time in a 40-3 and 47-3 game is probably similar to 3rd quarter pre-season and less useful than good practice as an environment, but three things will show up and should be evaluated in any of those three situations: 1) Reading coverages and decision making 2) Delivering the ball on time 3) Delivering the ball accurately Nothing in the pre-season or in yesterday's game shows any important flaws in any of those three things for Peterman, which is a positive, whether he rips the ball from Tyrod right away, is a future starter at another point dictated by injury or circumstance, or whether he is a competent career backup. I don't think anything has been shown that would make you want to start Peterman over the next three tough weeks, but I would happy to see him get some snaps if any of those games are out of reach and Tyrod isn't playing well. But if you wake up on December 4th and things aren't where you thought they should be, options should be weighed on who starts against the Colts. Losing to the Saints isn't a disaster even in a 10-6 playoff season, but how we lost to the Jets and HOW we lost to the Saints is a pretty good indication that we aren't as far ahead of schedule as it felt at 5-2, and every decision has to be made thoughtfully in both the short and long term interests of the club.

People are going in circles on this. Remember two things: 1) None of the other 31 teams thought this player with this contract was worth a fifth rounder or they would have offered and we would have accepted. Some cap considerations, but really no team thinks he is worth a fifth, so you get why maybe they aren't just all undervaluing him, but maybe those 31 GMs know something and he isn't as good as we wish he were. 2) Our D-focused HC seems to know the game, and while there has been some aggressive house cleaning, I don't see a McCoy for Kiko lopsided deal just for the sake of cleaning house. He thinks that while Marcel isn't bad enough to deactivate or cut, he isn't going to change the outcome of a game this year.

I am very disappointed, but not as much in the trade but that Dareus has turned into a player of this little value. Just so everyone is clear, we did NOT trade the number three overall pick for a 6th rounder. We traded a disappointing and underachieving and overpaid player who we mistakenly thought six years ago was better than Julio Jones, Patrick Peterson, AJ Green and JJ Watt. We are trading the current player and remaining contract, and the fact that we didn't get our draft value six and a half years ago shouldn't impact our judgment here. Like the Watkins trade, we have to evaluate the actual player now and the impact of their departure on the big picture in addition to what we get back. I'm more confident in out current decision makers than I have been in a while, so I will trust the process. If there was a better trade they would have taken it, so when no team will offer a fourth for him, the mistake is in the past and all 32 teams think he is worth less than a fourth as a player with his contract. Oh well. Let's win. Sunday and see what 5-2 feels like without Marcel.

I was on the Don't Pass on Watson team ahead of the draft, and am definitely feeling the I Told You So bug at the moment. But still, it isn't Tyrod for Watson. It is Tyrod and the Chief's 2018 #1 and Tre'Davious White for Watson. But when you don't have a QB, you need to be aggressive on getting a QB whatever the cost. If at the time of the draft you aren't convinced Watson is the guy and convinced Tyrod isn't, then you can roll the dice or pass.

That ball should be thrown a foot lower. That ball should be caught when it hits you in the hands. Neither routine, neither expected, but if you want to be a franchise QB that isn't a good enough throw, and if you are the NCAA career receptions all time leader and want to become an elite NFL player, you have to win a game when the ball hits you in the hands. If you can't do those things you are going to join Kap and RGIII as an athletic QB who doesn't have a starting role anywhere, and you are going to be a #2 receiver who doesn't get the ball with the game on the line. Disappointing, but great defense, and a good future for this team. Ticky tack push off call changed the game, and rookie HC showed some poor clock management on obvious situations.

I have to think that our Panthers connection is more valuable to us than it is to them (knowing our HC's tendencies is still a familiarity positive), but that it is unlikely to play as big a role as the Lawyer Milloy 31-0 win, because we are talking about last year and not last week. But that said, I think we do have something here that our coach will be able to use to our advantage in the chess match and planning beyond the 53 man overall talent we come up short with. I think this is the most likely road stunner (compared to KC,NE,ATL ) for the season, but one where we should obviously be a sizable dog to start. And I think that Carolina isn't quite as good as people think. That said, 1-1 is much more likely than 2-0, and if we win, lose competitively, or are blown out this week could show a lot more about our chances for the season than our mostly unimpressive win over the Jets did.