Koufax

A three time zone road game against a playoff contending opponent? I am happy to point to any of our seven losses in the event we come up short on Sunday, but the Chargers game is not the one at the top of my list, despite the Peterman debacle. Three games you really want back are: @Jets: As their 2-8 stretch to drop to 5-10 has shown, the Jets are beatable, and that's our worst loss of the season Bengals: On the road, but that team is 6-9, and that's the kind of game you have to win. @Chargers: a team that is better than it seemed like at the time, obviously there is the Peterman issue, but this was a tough game to win by a lot more than what Peterman counted for. And the four losses that I can live with and would have been the four in a 12-4 awesome season: Panthers: Tough road game against a team otherwise 11-4. Winnable because of the things that went right, but that is a really good team and av ery tough place to play, so as many individual plays you can say what if in our favor, there are as many you could say what if against us. Saints: 11-4 team on a huge roll at the time. Painful score, but that is a loss I can live with. Patriots: Ugly loss at home, but we aren't at the Patriot's level yet, so any victory against them is a big upset @Patriots: Replay debacle and still tied in the third quarter, but in a 15-1 wild imaginary dream season this is our one loss.

You are kidding and trolling right? No 8-7 team with a playoff chance should try to get to 8-8 to pick at 13 instead of 17. News flash for people, despite all the positives that we showed that we could play against the toughest enemy on the road, and the plays that went against us turned around, yet were in the second half with a chance to make some plays and win. Now we can play meaningful football down to the final snap of the season and have two plausible paths to the playoffs in Kyle Williams' last chance, and you are hoping to lose and get a higher pick? If we had a 14-2 season, this game would have likely been one of the two. Not stopping Dion Lewis was my big frustration in this game (along with a bunch of little things). Tanking is such an overrated thing by casual fans. The Astros actually didn't really do it well in MLB, and didn't rely on top picks in the draft (including taking Mark Appel ahead of Kris Bryant with one of their famous #1s?). So keep thinking that Brown - ing your way to competitiveness is better than building a winning culture and drafting and signing smartly in the off season. Let's play for 9-7 and let the chips fall where they may. Go Bills.

So things are really settling in, it is fun to be in the playoff hunt again in the final two weeks, and not needing a miracle for it to happen. Winning in Miami is obviously the key, and until a stunning upset is actually final, I think we should count a loss to the Patriots as well, so all planning is around 9-7. EITHER Any loss by the Chargers (@Jets, Oak) or Ravens (Ind, Cin) in those four remaining games almost ensures we win a 9-7 tie breaker. (we need 1 of 4 to go our way) OR If all four of those results go against us we would need KC to lose two (Mia, @Den) or the Titans to beat Rams and lose to Jax. (we would need 4 of 4 to go our way) 538 has us around 60% chance of making it at 9-7, with Indy beating Baltimore (very unlikely) the only game that has a huge benefit to us, with all the others helping one scenario but potentially hurting another so limiting their impact. Also, correct me if I am wrong, but there are ZERO scenarios that could eliminate us this weekend before we head to Miami right? And with the Chargers as a late game that final weekend, there is ZERO chance we can be eliminated by scoreboard watching while we are playing to victory over Miami? But it would take Jets over Chargers or Indy over Ravens THIS weekend for us to have a win and in scenario without scoreboard watching next weekend? And while some people might not BILLieve right now, I'm all in on the kool aid and pixie dust to get Kyle Williams to the playoffs.

It is a fun novelty that it is possible with only five involved games left, and even funnier that it could still be a possibility on Christmas eve with only three outcomes necessary for it to happen and eight days left in the season. But pipe dreams aside, if the Patriots lose back to back home games to the Bills and Jets to drop to 10-6, lose the division, and end the season on a four game losing streak, is is like the ninth sign of the apocalypse and none of us will be around to enjoy it. We might as well beat the Dolphins anyway and then root for the Steelers, since that's what we want to do on Sunday anyway...

Doh! Someone still in on the draft position myth! Winning football games is good. Having a bad year has its hidden benefits, but I would much rather draft like the Ravens or Bengals than draft like the Browns. My ultimate goal is to draft like the Patriots/Seahawks/Steelers. Winning nine games is GREAT and great for this team and its short term future. "trust the process" through 76ers like garbage seasons is harder than "we are actually a decent football team on the cusp". Anybody who thinks the 17 year drought is because we didn't get bad enough first doesn't understand the modern NFL. The 17 year drought is because we didn't get good enough and never managed to build off an upswing. Looking to next year, coming off a 9-7 season that is a couple Ravens losses (Steelers and Bengals?) away from being good enough for the playoffs, having tons of draft picks, and entering the second year of a regime that has built trust and excitement in the locker room and schemes more familiar, is the best place to be. 4-12 would have been the disaster for the next three years, and while we could live with it and survive it, 9 wins is just better.

Cautiously optimistic. This Chiefs team is 1-4 over their last four, including losing to the GIANTs when coming off of their bye week. Tyrod is back, but Dareus is still in Jacksonville. Arrowhead is always a tough place to play, and adding Revis today certainly won't hurt their defense. Our last three game performance is as irrelevant as our first seven, and same for the Chiefs. We are the weaker of the two teams and they are playing at home, but it is close enough that a decent performance from the defense, a solid Tyrod, and a big Shady and we have a great chance. I don't think McD's defense gets shredded for the fourth straight game, and I think KC's run defense bodes well for Shady.

Dareus gone has crushed us clearly more than many thought. DT is a tough position to casually evaluate, and clearly he was doing better than we realized. Taking a rookie and getting him back on his heels with a off the hands pick 6 is tough. The second INT had a deeper receiver open, he just couldn't get enough on it under that pressure. I thought he was in worse shape on the live play, but he actually had room to step right up in the pocket, which would have been a much better decision than thinking he has enough arm on his back foot to make that work. Not talking Tyrod elusive, but can't you see Brady or Ryan feeling the pressure and taking that one step forward before unleashing a deep ball? I'm not saying that third pro drive getting an Ingram/Bosa sandwich is an easy place to make snap decisions. But knowing he lacks the big star back foot arm or escabability, these types of decisions will be key to his success as a pocket passer, and this was more of a decision making/feel failure than I think many people have labeled it. His receiver had a step on a wide open middle of the field, and maybe at the time he started his release, he felt he had enough time for a clean release it would have taken to get the ball six or seven yards deeper, but edge pressure from both sides like that is something he has probably never had a single snap of experience, and the game moved a little too fast for him.

If you can get a QB worth getting, you get him. If you can't, you get the best overall talent with the picks you have and improve the team around Tyrod on the hopes you can get a QB worth getting the following draft.

Do you think it was dangerously inaccurate throws where the throw was the correct decision at the time he threw it? Or bad decisions by a gunslinger without an accurate gun? My top two QB attributes are decision making and accuracy (Brees, Brady, Montana, Manning). Everything else is tied for seventh. My cautiously optimistic about Peterman on both of these things, and thought his completion percentage on balls that were thrown 15+ yards stat was a potentially interesting and useful one (he was highest in power five conference for that). I think Tyrod's accuracy looked a little better than it actually was because of his "I'm not a gunslinger" mentality where he wouldn't attempt the medium range tight window throws. Check downs to wide open, scramble, or the only my receiver can catch it bombs. His legs were undoubtedly a good tool, but most of his value was his running threat, and short passes to open receivers without turning the ball over. I think that is a tough combo to build a winner around, and while I have enjoyed our five wins this year, none of his nine starts has lead me to believe he is something different from when I thought we should replace him with Watson at #10. If Peterman can show decision making and accuracy, he can be successful, and more successful than Tyrod. If he can't, we have a clearer sense of what we have, and who should be the interim QB if we draft our future QB without him being ready to play.

Garbage time in a 40-3 and 47-3 game is probably similar to 3rd quarter pre-season and less useful than good practice as an environment, but three things will show up and should be evaluated in any of those three situations: 1) Reading coverages and decision making 2) Delivering the ball on time 3) Delivering the ball accurately Nothing in the pre-season or in yesterday's game shows any important flaws in any of those three things for Peterman, which is a positive, whether he rips the ball from Tyrod right away, is a future starter at another point dictated by injury or circumstance, or whether he is a competent career backup. I don't think anything has been shown that would make you want to start Peterman over the next three tough weeks, but I would happy to see him get some snaps if any of those games are out of reach and Tyrod isn't playing well. But if you wake up on December 4th and things aren't where you thought they should be, options should be weighed on who starts against the Colts. Losing to the Saints isn't a disaster even in a 10-6 playoff season, but how we lost to the Jets and HOW we lost to the Saints is a pretty good indication that we aren't as far ahead of schedule as it felt at 5-2, and every decision has to be made thoughtfully in both the short and long term interests of the club.

People are going in circles on this. Remember two things: 1) None of the other 31 teams thought this player with this contract was worth a fifth rounder or they would have offered and we would have accepted. Some cap considerations, but really no team thinks he is worth a fifth, so you get why maybe they aren't just all undervaluing him, but maybe those 31 GMs know something and he isn't as good as we wish he were. 2) Our D-focused HC seems to know the game, and while there has been some aggressive house cleaning, I don't see a McCoy for Kiko lopsided deal just for the sake of cleaning house. He thinks that while Marcel isn't bad enough to deactivate or cut, he isn't going to change the outcome of a game this year.

I am very disappointed, but not as much in the trade but that Dareus has turned into a player of this little value. Just so everyone is clear, we did NOT trade the number three overall pick for a 6th rounder. We traded a disappointing and underachieving and overpaid player who we mistakenly thought six years ago was better than Julio Jones, Patrick Peterson, AJ Green and JJ Watt. We are trading the current player and remaining contract, and the fact that we didn't get our draft value six and a half years ago shouldn't impact our judgment here. Like the Watkins trade, we have to evaluate the actual player now and the impact of their departure on the big picture in addition to what we get back. I'm more confident in out current decision makers than I have been in a while, so I will trust the process. If there was a better trade they would have taken it, so when no team will offer a fourth for him, the mistake is in the past and all 32 teams think he is worth less than a fourth as a player with his contract. Oh well. Let's win. Sunday and see what 5-2 feels like without Marcel.

I was on the Don't Pass on Watson team ahead of the draft, and am definitely feeling the I Told You So bug at the moment. But still, it isn't Tyrod for Watson. It is Tyrod and the Chief's 2018 #1 and Tre'Davious White for Watson. But when you don't have a QB, you need to be aggressive on getting a QB whatever the cost. If at the time of the draft you aren't convinced Watson is the guy and convinced Tyrod isn't, then you can roll the dice or pass.

That ball should be thrown a foot lower. That ball should be caught when it hits you in the hands. Neither routine, neither expected, but if you want to be a franchise QB that isn't a good enough throw, and if you are the NCAA career receptions all time leader and want to become an elite NFL player, you have to win a game when the ball hits you in the hands. If you can't do those things you are going to join Kap and RGIII as an athletic QB who doesn't have a starting role anywhere, and you are going to be a #2 receiver who doesn't get the ball with the game on the line. Disappointing, but great defense, and a good future for this team. Ticky tack push off call changed the game, and rookie HC showed some poor clock management on obvious situations.

I have to think that our Panthers connection is more valuable to us than it is to them (knowing our HC's tendencies is still a familiarity positive), but that it is unlikely to play as big a role as the Lawyer Milloy 31-0 win, because we are talking about last year and not last week. But that said, I think we do have something here that our coach will be able to use to our advantage in the chess match and planning beyond the 53 man overall talent we come up short with. I think this is the most likely road stunner (compared to KC,NE,ATL ) for the season, but one where we should obviously be a sizable dog to start. And I think that Carolina isn't quite as good as people think. That said, 1-1 is much more likely than 2-0, and if we win, lose competitively, or are blown out this week could show a lot more about our chances for the season than our mostly unimpressive win over the Jets did.

I'm rooting against the Chiefs 16 times this year, so Tom Terrific can have this one.

It is important to remember that today Beane did not turn a second into a fourth. He turned Reggie Ragland into a fourth. Whaley turned a second into Reggie Ragland, which clearly seems to be the place we lost value. If Ragland is/will be a decent and valuable player then today's trade is bad. If he is not/will not then today's trade is good. I'm disappointed the McDermott ended up thinking Ragland was that useless to our team, but better to pull the trigger and get something than to cut him or have him buried on the depth chart and not contributing. We know Ragland was not playing better than Brown in McDermott's eyes, so the question is what is more valuable, a 2019 4th (that can also be used to trade up in teh 2018 draft) or how much better Ragland is than Hodges as our backup MLB. But definitely a big indictment of the Ragland pick today.

So if they would trade him for a 2019 4th it means he likely didn't fit any meaningful role on the 2017 club. That isn't a big asset back. It may be an indictment of the original selection or a change in scheme, but what it likely is not is getting rid of a player who had meaningful value to us this year. My issue with it is that a 2019 4th is a very small amount of draft capital, and my concern on Ragland being valuable to KC since every win by them hurts our draft capital as well. I'm hopeful that this is part of the calculus and the Bills don't think that Ragland will impact the 2017 Chiefs by an actual entire victory anywhere, so won't change the value of their 2018 1st that we are getting, but in our dream scenario of them imploding, the less talent and depth they have the more likely that things go just wrong and we get the 12th pick and not the 26th pick. I'm all for a clean start as painful as it can feel, and hoping our coach and GM stick around long enough for it to not repeat in a few years as we have been doing for a while.

Play to win the game...Until at least week 17, you play to win football games, and if it weren't for the injury clause in his contract, Tyrod would have started that game too. The over-hyped draft is lots of entertainment fun, but it is not where championships are won, and for every Luck/Manning/Newton at the top, there are five Jamarcus Russell's. Brady in the sixth, Brees in the second, Russell Willson in the third, Rodgers at the bottom of round 1, but we will all die if you don't get to draft the franchise guy at #1 or #2. I look forward to the Bills winning their first game of the season as early as possible, preferably September 10th, so we can get to the business of winning our second game, and try really hard to put 10 or 11 bricks in that wall.

I like the pick at 27. Not glamorous, but the rest of the draft showed the emphasis on DBs, and I think we got a good one. White plus another first is better for the Bills than Lattimore, and we can root against the Chiefs all season to get a higher pick. But I still want to be on record that I like Watson and have some regret. I still have doubts about what Taylor has shown us and see a little more Cam Newton and less Vince Young in Watson (among national champion QBs) and think a few years from now we could regret passing on him. But I assume the coaching staff knows better than I do and they like Tyrod plus a CB plus a 2018 first more than Watson, so my fingers are crossed. We will find out soon because the Texans don't have a log jam ahead of him.

I like the name. I think it was featured in a Key & Peele episode once.

If your goal isn't to pick 32nd every draft, you shouldn't be in charge of any of those things. Tanking is an NBA thing, and the NFL structure shows again and again that when building a 53 man roster, picking smart players and trying to teach the 53 you have to play winning football is better than the occasional Andrew Luck moment. There are so many star players picked out of the top 15 and so many busts in the top 15, that come draft day I love the highest picks I can have, but factoring that into any decision to try to compete with the 53 you have many months earlier is dumb...and it is dumb over and over. Not picking Blaine Gabbert over JJ Watt. Tell me which of the 15 players taken ahead of EJ Manuel is really the guy who turns your team around? If we get the #1 pick some time, I hope we pick a really good football player, but in the meantime I just want us to pick the best we can at #10 or #15 or eventually #32, and take those best players we pick and try to win one game each Sunday until it is time to repeat that process again.

Huge, slightly inaccurate generalization: If you have Arm Strength, Decision Making, and Accuracy, you are a top five pick. If you have Arm Strength, and decent hope for the other two, you are a first round pick and usually are worth less than your draft pick. If you have arm strength and doubts about the other two you are a later round pick. If you have the other two but questionable arm strength you are Drew Brees/Tom Brady, you exceed your draft slot. EJ definitely paid the price for a lot of the turmoil and stuff, and didn't quite get a fair shake, but at the time of his draft, he was a question mark on accuracy, and a question mark on decision making, which makes him not really a first round pick. He proved those doubters (and most NFL team rankings of him) right, but never improving those two qualities enough to be an NFL QB. I'm not sure what Oakland is hoping for, but clipboard and keeping your starting QB healthy, and EJ seems like a good dude.

Why tank? Averaging 7 wins a season over the last 17 years hasn't worked because we have not found a franchise QB, and because we have had a lot of coaching turnover (and play in Brady's division...let's be honest about that part). I'm not sure how moving from #11 to a top three pick makes us better in the draft enough to offset the sucking and missing the chance of building winners and sneaking in to the playoffs with a one or two game improvement. There are plenty of top three QB busts, and plenty of franchise QBs found outside the top 3. If you really need a guy at the top of the 2018 draft, win anyway (even if 8-8 as you are trying to get to 10-6), and trade up. You give up less value to get there than you do by breeding suckitude. And don't ever make the fallacy of past performance being predictor of future in sports. Remember when the Patriots and Broncos were just super bowl losers without any rings? And I think the Cubs, Red Sox, and White Sox all also had "it will never happen" streaks a lot longer than ours. We need our ownership, front office, and coaching staff to commit to winning and doing the things to build a winning franchise, and a 2003 loss to the Steelers backups or a Scott Norwood kick don't have anything to do with that. Taylor was one play from beating the Seahawks in Seattle. Our team needs to try to get better, not worse.

I have no trouble picking someone at #10 who could be a franchise QB. Certainties are gone before #10. There are exactly two considerations that would keep me from selecting Watson #1 overall, the Brady tools: Decision Making, Accuracy. I don't question his makeup, intelligence, drive, arm strength, hand size, or athletic ability. So if you know he will have excellent accuracy and decision making he is a no doubter at #1. If you feel pretty confident that these two things will evolve into NFL Good or better, he is easy to pick at #10 or even trade up. If you think these will not develop and are pretty doubtful, then he isn't going to be better than Tyrod, and isn't worth your pick. I don't think the combine does anything to help you with his decision making, but I could be wrong and they picked up some things in the interview. If the throwing portion showed something that they didn't already know from game tape in terms of accuracy, then you could work on that. But for the most part, I think your evaluation of Watson's current and projected Decision Making and Accuracy would not be impacted in any direction by the combine, so you leave the combine with the exact same evaluation you had coming in. My gut feeling right now on projecting these two qualities and the QB he will become is that he is definitely worth a pick at #10, and probably worth a trade up to 4 to 9, but still a little too uncertain to consider a trade up to 1 or 2 or 3 (guessing on what those trades would cost...meaning I wouldn't RGIII to make it happen, but would give up something beyond #10).