Koufax

This is exactly my thoughts and worries. Gore got one good one and seven bad ones. Didn't get the Playcalling after the first half...something that had been a weakspot much of the season, moreso than our positional talent.

But why did they go empty backfield in overtime when Singletary got so many positive plays after contact, and same for the back to back regulation sacks...

I agree with other points, and that this year was easy, but nobody really knows what next year looks like this far ahead. Too much change I. The NFL. Nobody had the Ravens and Niners as the top teams a year ago. January Power Ranking and September actual teams are always way way different, so we will see which actual teams our 13 opponents field and play those.

1) Exciting talented QB did some awesome things, but played some plays like a rookie. 2) Gore had nothing except that one run, while Singletary had positive plays over and over. No idea why we were empty backfield in overtime. Their defense should have been more tired. Singletary runs and play action to Beasley. 3) In field goal range two sacks instead of runs was bad Playcalling and horrible execution. 4) Felt of game on the third down...is there a one second buffer because all I saw was double zeros before they converted. 5) Nice to be relevant again, but this game should obviously been closed out and we should have been playing next week. The ones who screwed up that chance are also the ones who made the success possible, so I want to play better and smarter, rather than clean house.

I prefer the Shadow version when there is one receiver way better than the others, but Sherman in Seattle also did half the field and it allowed the rest of the defense to play predictably and consistently and not let the opposing OC manipulate with formation and motion. I love Tre, but I love our secondary as a whole and think we are more than a shutdown corner. But also what has been stated or implied and what will happen should not be related.

I take issue with the following: Offensive Playcalling, deep touch passes were not going to work, shifting to the short stuff helped but we left plays on the field over the middle 10-15. Allen failed to step up on edge pressure a few times, and rolled into it. Bad tendency that I hope goes away. Led to some negative plays, but also missed opportunity to get out of bad plays and complete a few over the middle and run a few up the middle. Can you challenge PI on the final play or is it not allowed inside a.minute? If you can challenge, why not do it even if only a 1% chance? Can't use the timeout on Monday. One fumble and one blown coverage with good pressure turned the game, and the defense played great. Nice to have our own kicker back. Let's not hang out heads...that is a good team and now we need to find a way to get to 10-4 next week in what is a much bigger matchup than it felt like a month ago...

Whitner over Ngata is the one that matters. I mean trading out of Watson and Mahomes I mean... we will have to see how it plays out, but I think getting a great QB who has us at 9-3 can have us focus on the future for a bit, and not the second guessing club. Patriots passed on Brady six times, they were lucky not smart. But LJ is definitely a reminder over and over again, that drafting QBs is in imperfect art at best, and total crap shoot at worst. I'm glad we aren't in the market for a QB for a while and can focus on winning our 10th game in a season for the first time since 1999.

I was just in the ESPN playoff machine for the same reasons, but the key is 10-3. Just beat Baltimore and hope we still have this dream alive next Sunday night. Home game and long week to prepare helps balance out facing the hottest team in football right now.

All things being equal a higher draft pick is better. I'm rooting for other teams to win to improve our draft status wherever we end up. But the big part people pretend doesn't exist sometimes is that all things are NOT equal, and Josh Allen and the Bills beating the Lions as part of their development into a successful quarterback and a winning team respectively has real value, and I would strongly argue that in the vast majority of situations has more value than the improved draft position. So I hope that we win our next two games and finish 7-9, because that has a real value, and dropping from 10 to 16 or whatever in the process is fine with me, and I think worth LESS than those two wins would be.

That is awesome news! While it is my personal goal to see the Bills draft at #32 in the next few years, I am really happy we moved up four spots and would now draft #10. I think if we play our cards right we can move up a little further at and least pick in the mid teens. No sarcasm here. For those of you who think losing is the best path to winning, that is only maybe true when you are trying to draft a QB and it is a Luck/Manning kind of draft and you manage not to pick RG3/Leaf (so pretty much if you are the Colts), you probably want to look at the draft history. Come draft night, having a higher pick is better than a lower pick as you have more choices and more value to trade in either direction as well. But it is a much smaller importance than drafting smart/lucky. What I really hope is that we get a great player at #15 and #45 and #75 or whatever. I'm happily rooting for other teams bunched around us to win games and give us a slightly better pick where it doesn't impact us, but I'm still dreaming of 7-9 and not hoping for 5-11. Who we pick needs to be the best player available each time (position weighted of course, based on the degree a position impacts the game). Drafting for need only ensures that you will have new needs and less talent over the next five years.

Every draft has imperfections, some by bad decisions (Whitner over Ngata, Maybin over Orakpo both of which all of us at TSW called ahead of time), some just by players outperforming what could have reasonably be expected from them on draft day. I'm pleased with the Allen and Edmund picks and excited to watch them develop into stars over the next few years. There is no draft where there aren't things to change with hindsight, and even without dipping onto Brady (who the PATRIOTS passed on six times!). Getting good players as often as you can, accepting a bust when it happens, and getting lucky once in a while is what you hope for. These both seem like good players. Tough to look back at passing on Mahomes right now, but the draft is an inexact science, I think somewhat because it can never be that accurate, but also because it is an informational inefficiency that teams do not execute very well and a smarter team can do better (but never perfect). I'm hoping we select a star player at #17 next June because wins are more valuable than draft slots unless you are trying to get your franchise QB.

I'm not on board in ever rooting for a loss or trying to get a loss. While I can handle some of the inevitable losses we will suffer in our remaining 7 games, and see the silver lining of improved draft position, this organization after its shocking playoff appearance last year will be better served by a 5-11 season than a 2-14 season, as crazy as that sounds. As for Josh Allen, I would prefer to see him sit through the bye week, and want the decision to play him based on his development, and not 2018 season goals. I don't think there is any clear NFL roadmap as to watching the first year vs playing the first year, so McD can decide based on some of the little personal things along with health, and I'm fine either way. But we aren't going to be drafting a franchise QB this year, where the difference between #1 and #2 and #5 really matters, and position player drafts in the top ten are a crap shoot, so I am not rooting for a loss any game all season, and that strategy I think we should start all referring to as the Losers Fallacy. Top non-QBs in last five drafts that we have a little time to evaluate 2011: Von Miller 2, Dareus 3, AJGreen 4, Peterson 5, Julio Jones 6 (JJ Watt 11)...doesn't seem like losing an extra game made a difference, and I would love to pick Watt 2012: Richardson 3, Kalil 4, Blackmon 5, Claiborne 6, Barron 7, Kuechly 8, Gillmore 9...I'm happy picking 8 or 9 in that draft too. 2013: Fisher 1, Joekel 2, Jordon 3, Johnson 4, Ansah 5, Mingo 6...top tackles are nice... 2014: Clowney 1, Robinson 2, Watkins 4, Mack 5, Matthews 6, Evans 7, Gilbert 8, Barr 9, Ebron 10, Lewan 11, Beckham 12....if you were going to trade up to #4, I wanted to pick Mack on draft day, and if you are picking 5, 7, 12 in this draft you are fine too. 2015: FOwler 3, Cooper 4, Scherff 5...Gurley 10...I don't mind picking smart at 10 in this draft... A higher pick is always a great thing to have, and I'm rooting for the Giants, Raiders, Niners, Cardinals, Browns, Jets to help us out with some meaningless wins in the next few weeks, but not picking a QB, improving draft stock by tanking and being a joke of a team doesn't really add up to a winning future.

I know both of the guys on the show personally, and neither knows anything about the Bills in any way shape or form, and with the Chargers leaving San Diego they have been spending a lot less attention on following football. So they will have no idea that our defense is actually pretty good, and while we can't expect much out of our offense, we are not a horrible laughing stock team. We are QB weak and not hitting on all cylinders, but our defense is good, our offense will be forced to run the ball and eat the clock some, and the game should be closer than people think.

I agree. I like the current football player Josh Rosen much better than the current football player Josh Allen. But we aren't getting the current football player, we are trying to get the next ten years. Rosen is such a smart kid and from a smart well off family, that I could see him walking away after his first NFL concussion, and as a stationary pocket passer in the NFL, I unfortunately know that could come at any time. Also, again coping here, Rosen would seem to be who he is, and I'm not quite sure that is more Matt Ryan than Ryan Mallett, and only time will tell. But Allen has some exciting room to become something really special, so we have to dream the upside and see how soon we can make McCarron a backup, but patiently wait for the right time.

My worries on Josh Allen are limited to if he will be able to make quick good decisions at NFL speed and accurately deliver the ball. Those two Drew Brees/Tom Brady/Joe Montana skills come before everything else. I have him behind Mayfield, Rosen, and Darnold on my big four list because of my doubts/concerns about those two things. I have little substantial reason to think he will fall short on these things, but the other three have all shown more promising signs on these two aspects. I don't have any real personality concerns about any of the four, I don't think there is a Leaf or Manziel red flag in this group. The long term success of these four will be determined by the two Joe Montana skills. Completion Percentage is a big focus college stat to try to sum up these two skills, but it isn't that precise, and there is a difference in situations that leads to some guarded optimism for Allen. But until he is our pick and I start rooting for him, I'm hoping he isn't our pick, because the unknowns are too great.

Nelson over Mayfield and Rosen either implies that those two will likely fail to be good NFL QBs (I disagree) or undervalues the positional importance and weights. The difference between a decent OG and hall of fame OG on a football team's success is less than the difference between a good and a very good QB. Every time I see a guard or running back too high because of their "grade" I think that the NFL still hasn't made the adjustment on positional weights, and how easy it is to find a decent replacement guard on day two or free agency vs how easy it is to fine a decent replacement qb on day two or free agency. Fortunately I hope that is a market inefficiency that our own team can exploit and allow us to be smarter than other teams.

There is no chance that there are six good QBs from this draft five years from now. That doesn't mean that the top four are the four best necessarily or that Jackson and Rudolph are doomed. But when the dust settles there will be a bust and a so-so/backup in this group of six. The secret is in evaluating them properly, and developing and utilizing the guy you get. Allen scares me a lot for his accuracy and decision making (jury out), which can never be secondary to the "big hands, all the throws" crap. But he still has a path to stardom. Mayfield (my choice) could be more Manziel than Brees and not overcome his small size and medium arm strength. Darnold could get stuck at "pretty good" by continuing to turn the ball over, but has a very high floor. Rosen could be more Ryan Mallet than Matt Ryan, and with his lack of mobility he will have to have timing, quick release, and decision making all go in his favor. Jackson I think has a very good chance to be better than projected and end up one of the four best, and I think people get confused on his performance in designed runs vs scrambling. He was so good running that he wasn't always a pocket passer, but his pocket passing has a chance to develop, and there are some things I like about rolling dice on his incredible athletic ability more than Allen, but there is definite risk. Rudolph is an interesting wild card. I see more solid backup than playoff game winner in him. I just see the NFL game moving a little too fast for his talents.

I don't like that so much of his value has been running, but it is important to note that a lot of that was on designed runs, and on designed passes his rate of deciding to scramble is actually fairly low. I'm not so sure what to make of him, but I did want to point out this, and not have his running ability lead people to assume he is a scramble first guy who won't stay in the pocket. But the number of times Louisville decided to design a run for him makes it harder and more limited to evaluate how he is as a pocket passer, and how he would perform as a Buffalo Bill.

Yep. Those are the two BIGGEST qualities in a successful NFL quarterback, and I have no good reason to think Allen will become awesome at either. He is very scary, because while his ceiling is very high if he improves those two things, his floor is way too low if he doesn't (compared to Rosen and Mayfield who are very likely to be pretty good at worst, and Darnold who isn't a sure thing and has work to do, but is further along).

I like this. Playing the Jags on the road or even getting Norwood a shot from 47 isn't the goal. Winning a Super Bowl is what all macro decisions should be built on, especially regarding the QB position. Free agent line backers and guards and third round picks can all he based on depth chart and winning right now, but everything big should be about identifying which of these guys gives us the best shot at winning a Super Bowl, and doing what it takes to get him, even if we don't have a pick left to take a Maybin or Troupe or Hardy of Whitner...those kind of blue chips who all but guarantee a Lombardi...

There are great QBs not taken in the top 10 picks, and there are QBs who perform better than others selected in front of them. But I'm not aware of any time recently where the 5th best QB to come out of a draft was any good. So which are the top 3 or 4 and when the top 3 or 4 will be picked, and if anybody will make a mistake and pick a bad QB ahead of a good one is all up to debate. But I don't see any way that 5 good QBs come out of this draft, and I have some pretty big doubts that 4 will. Aaron Rodgers was the 2nd QB picked, and with all due respect to Jason Campbell and Charlie Frye, there were two useful QBs in that draft. There were two good QBs in the Brees draft. Manning, Rivers, Ben were quite a top three, but there wasn't a fourth in that draft. The Brady draft had Pennington, Marc Bulger, and Brady and no fourth QB. The error was evaluating and picking the top QB, not the reality that the fifth or sixth best QB was any good. Luck, RGIII, Tennehill, Cousins, Foles were all in the same draft so that is close. So it is fine to like Allen or Rudolph or Jackson MORE than Rosen or Mayfield or Darnold, but out of those six you have to try to order them so you don't accidentally pick one of the two or three that will be forgotten about in a few years. My thoughts on the six are (not as QB expert, but putting down things), that Darnold is overrated and will take some time (a year behind Tyrod), but will be pretty good. Rosen will rub a lot of people the wrong way and be easy to root against, but will make a Pro Bowl. Mayfield will be more Wilson/Brees than Manziel/Sanchez, and could be the best in the draft. Jackson and Rudolph will be irrelevant backups. Allen is the hardest for me to read, and likely the hardest for the NFL evaluators. He has such a high ceiling with his talent, but also a low floor. I hate the low completion percentage, but playing at Wyoming there is more of a reason to give some credence as to the supporting cast and not his ability to throw the ball where it should be. But I need to be impressed with the projections of the two most important qualities of an NFL QB before I would be interested, accuracy and decision making, and I haven't been convinced yet on either (but also not seen strong reasons he will come up short). I just don't see the examples of college QBs posting back to back 56% completion percentages and then being successful in the NFL. So right now I would pass on Allen, but am very aware that if smart guys really see him becoming an accurate passer and a good decision maker, he could be amazing. I just want to stop hearing about athleticism and arm strength like they remotely matter without the other two things.

If your player personnel team shies away from someone because they get the voicemail in March a couple times, they probably aren't good at their jobs. If your player personnel team dives deeper and correlates this with a disinterest or flaw in the actual player that they don't think your head coach can overcome, then kudos to have that adjust placement on your big board. We will have to see, but the mom/meeting stuff right now doesn't raise much red flags for me, it just makes it a little harder to have complete information, and means that the team that is persistent and competent enough to get complete information will probably do better in the draft.

There are almost certainly not four QBs in this draft. But the QBs also very likely will not go in order of their future value, so we don't have to be in the top three to get a top three QB. We have to evaluate better or get lucky. I am not sure what order I have the four QBs ranked, and I think it is very likely the Jets and Bills do not have the same order. Does Darnold or Allen climb now that they do not have to start day 1? I had preferred Mayfield or Rosen most likely all things equal, but know that that evaluation could be as wrong as Smith over Rodgers or Leaf vs Peyton. Fingers crossed that our brain trust can pick right in the top two, outside the top two, or even at 12.

Darnold can't play right away, and I don't think Allen can either. Both of them with big upside need developing. Rosen and Mayfield are each much more ready to play day 1 or close after. Obviously we add another QB to the roster from the veteran heap, with a pretty likely situation that he is the #1 as we approach the season to be derailed only by actual training camp performance, and not master plans on paper. But we aren't counting on that veteran to be a long term or even full season solution, so a temporary game manager like McCarron or McCown is a viable solution. Foles would be more costly, and would be a different strategy, and likely planned on being a multiple year starter if we traded for him.

Absolutely. And unless we make some major vault into the top three picks, we will need to have some baggage or perceived flaw or missed evaluation by other teams in order to get a top QB. My larger point is that there are just about never four good QBs in a draft, so if you pick the fourth or fifth QB, it should be on the assumption that the other teams got it wrong, or as later round filler/backup. Right now I would rather have Mayfield's perceived flaws of height and trouble making than Allen's inaccuracy in a superb athletic package. I think Rosen could be special and has flickers of Matt Ryan/Tom Brady in his game, but I don't think he leaves the top three. Darnold I'm not bullish on right now as he has to grow a lot, but I have seen few enough games of him that I'm happy if I am wrong and we steal him.