dave mcbride

Yeah, agreed about the Central. Here's what I feel confident about with regard to teams in that division: Cincy: Excellent team with an elite qb, but since every team in that division is pretty good (at least), I can see a 10-7/11-6 season. Pitt: History pretty much shows that they will win at least 9 games. They'll be better than last season, so let's give them 10-7. Baltimore: They will win at least 10 games. I could easily see them winning the division too. Cleveland: If Watson steps up his game, they could win the division and go 11-6. It's certainly in the realm of the plausible. They have a really good roster overall and just need the QB to come through. I won't be surprised if he plays pretty well either. Last year, four of their first 5 losses were by a total of 9 points (all of them agonizing losses and with Brissett at QB), and then at 2-5 I just think the wheels came off. Incidentally, Amari Cooper looked to me like he was playing the best football of his career last season. They brought in Jim Schwartz to coordinate the D too, and he's obviously good.

Yep. The Searchers by far is his best performance and it is a truly amazing movie. Her performance in the remake of True Grit — which I think is a LOT better than the original — was mesmerizing.

No, they did not.

They were never teammates. Lawson’s first year at clemson was 2013 and hopkins’ final year there was 2012.

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/bill-obrien-deandre-hopkins-relationship-timeline-patriots-trade

They actually lost their only playoff game in 2017, 10-3.

Also, in 15 post season games, he had 69 catches for 1,062 yards and 7 TDs. Those were great single-season numbers for a receiver in that era.

Terrell Davis played in 8 postseason games and had 1,140 yards, 5.6 ypc, and 12 touchdowns -- all vs the toughest competition. Extrapolated to a full 16 game season, it becomes 2,280 yards and 24 touchdowns -- which would be the greatest rushing season ever. And he won a SB MVP. The NFL rightly rewards postseason greatness because it's all about winning championships, after all. It's better than the MLB system, which downplays postseason numbers.

If I had to pick one play that lost the Bills that game, it's at the 0:45 mark here. Allen did nothing wrong; Saffold was beaten like a drum and forced JA into an off target throw that should have been a huge gain. Before you know it, it was 14-0 and it was clear that the Bills' D had no answers. Don't blame Allen for that loss even though he didn't have a great game. .

The other thing I'd say about all of this is that there's the height that's listed and the height that's inclusive of reach. Hakeem Olajuwon was 6'10" but was effectively taller than a number of 7-foot centers because his arms were so goddamn long. Wingspan/reach is key when thinking about a player's true playing height.

Good post. As for gambling on guys with that upside but modest stats, I give you https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/dk-metcalf-1.html.

Stevie Johnson and TJ Houshmandzedah (sp?) were both 6'2" -- not giants, of course, but still reasonably tall. They were very productive for decent stretches. Both were 7th rounders. TO was a big, big guy and was drafted late in the 3rd. It's not the fifth, but he way overperformed his draft slot. Also, Brandon Marshall - 6'4" and drafted in the 4th round. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MarsBr00.htm

Recap: it sucks.

Yes, very easy to search. 36th among ALL defensive players is great. However, the player who gave up the highest rating in the entire league? Yikes - Damar Hamlin. 142.3 rating against him. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/defense_advanced.htm (for others who are interested, sort by the rating tab). Yeah, sometimes we just say things.

Edit: the rating against Wallace was actually 73.0 and the completion rate against him was 53.2 percent. That is a good season by any standard. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WallLe00.htm

74.6 is actually great. An 80 passer rating is the new Mendoza line and the very best defenses generally have overall team defense passer ratings in the mid-70s. The collective passer rating against SF's defense last year was 82.7.

He also dropped a pass in the Vikings game on the Bills' final drive but the refs didn't review the call due to the Bills hustling to get the next play off (it was ruled a catch on the field even though it wasn't). And on the pick Allen threw in his own end in the first Jets game, I'd bet a lot of money that Davis ran the wrong route. Allen threw it in the opposite direction from which he turned. The next time they ran that play a game or two after that, he ran to the opposite spot of where he ran in the Jets game.

OJ's biggest weakness was fumbling -- he was a fumbling machine. He had 62 fumbles on 2,607 touches. By way of comparison, Frank Gore had 46 fumbles on 4,219 touches. Emmit Smith had 61 fumbles on 4,924 touches. Marshall Faulk had 36 fumbles on 3,503 touches. As you may know, McDermott is highly allergic to fumblers.

As I've said elsewhere, I expect Miller to be basically fine, health-wise.

You think Epenesa can take the next step? He was sneakily not that bad last season (5 passes defensed and 6.5 sacks while playing 38 percent of snaps). Not saying he'll ever be great, but with more playing time he could be an 8.5-sack guy. That's not elite, but it's certainly decent production from your third best pass rusher.

I also think that what gets baked into these numbers is the not-infinitesimal chance that a key player can go down for any team. The Niners were expected to win probably 12 games in 2020 but won only 4 because of injuries. That can happen to any team. Allen could go down, for instance, and if he does, the Bills will be f**ked.

They are a brutally boring team. I personally thought that giving judge all that money was crazy given that he's likely entering his decline phase given his age (e.g., Stanton and Pujols). I'm not opposed to spending all that money, but I would have spent it on a few upper tier players in their 20s rather than on just one massive-frame player who just turned 31. And how predictable was Stanton going down with another muscle-related injury?

He's really good at getting down when all hope for further gain is lost and thereby avoiding the big hits. Diggs is phenomenal in that respect too.

I guess I never realized how productive of a career Graham had - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GrahJi00.htm. He always seemed vaguely disappointing to me, but I had forgotten those monster seasons he had in NO. I just don't think Russell Wilson was the right QB for him. Wilson at his best was a guy who would let the play break down and then effectively play street ball, and for a number of years he was the best at it in the league. Mobility for that style of play is required, though. Anyway, TEs tend to not get as much love as downfield receivers in street ball.

Murray went to Onondaga Central High School (south of Syracuse and on the edge of the Finger Lakes). He's had a pretty solid career as a second tier RB: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MurrLa00.htm. Perhaps most importantly, he's had 10 fumbles on 1,703 touches in his career, which is a very low rate. And he's only fumbled three times in his last 1,075 touches, going back to the beginning of the 2017 season (by way of comparison, Devin Singletary has fumbled 13 times on 817 total touches). That is extraordinarily low, and people should never underestimate the value of the avoiding-fumbles skill for NFL coaches. The running game is supposed to be safe. Turnovers are OK in the passing game because the rewards are so much higher, but not in the running game where you're assuming a little over 4 yards per play on average.