dave mcbride

I don’t you’re factoring in how big of a loss Von Miller was — maybe because it’s been so long since the Bills had an elite pass rusher. Bill Walsh always talked about 4th quarter pressure and how it decided tons of games. Miller is still that guy, and he was doing it this year. He pressured Mahomes into throwing that pick, and vs Cleveland he pressured Jacoby Brissett on virtually every play in the fourth quarter. He is also a guy who almost literally won Denver an AFC championship game in 2015 by himself by relentlessly getting after Brady, sacking him, and picking him off for a td. As I said, Miller is that guy who can win his matchups late in games. He is not nearly as gifted as Elam, and Dane Jackson was one of the lone bright spots vs Cincy. They don’t have a strong safety - a required position - and he has experience at it. 4.55 for a CB is too slow but it’s ok for a safety.

DEs have historically produced far deeper into their careers - into their mid 30s - than players at other positions outside of QBs and some o-line positions. Bruce Smith’s best years were 1995-1998, and he had knee injuries too. Moreover, it sounds from what I’ve read that this was a pretty clean acl tear with little surrounding damage. I actually expect him to be 100 percent by October at the latest.

Let's not forget this playoff game either: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202101090buf.htm. 472 yards given up, no turnovers, no sacks (against a statue), 27 first downs surrendered, and 6.2 yards per play. No team in NFL history with at least 450 yards and 0 turnovers had lost a playoff game before: https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2021/01/10/indianapolis-colts-buffalo-bills-history-made-wild-card-playoffs/. It is retrospectively shocking that the Bills won that game. It was all Josh Allen plus Reich going for it at least once when he should have kicked a FG.

Good point; I meant among people who were available. I will say that for me, Williams vs Burns represents a toss-up. Burns is REALLY good; it's just that he's on a subpar team that is also very boring. Who watches Carolina games beyond their fans? But yeah, Williams is excellent.

Even bigger whiff: not grabbing Brian Burns. He's the best d-lineman out of that draft.

Frazier's scheme has eyes always looking back at the QB and hence the Bills D tends to do REALLY well versus running QBs (e.g., Justin Fields). Plus they have fast LBs who can run and chase down QBs well. The other thing about the Raves game is that it was a high-wind game (lots of missed field goals) that totally undercut the passing games for both teams.

Yeah, and I think SF is probably the best team in the NFL right now. I don't know what to make of the Eagles, but we'll find out on Sunday.

The Bengals could have scored 41 in that game if they needed to.

His pectoral injury really affected late in the season. He was not healthy. I hear you about the numbers, but then I read @GunnerBill arguing that Oliver was hands down the Bills' best d-lineman in 2021 and really good in the first three quarters of this season. I just think that he has talent and will be playing for his fortune next season. I think he'll give us more than any fourth rounder we get. Next year is still a SB window for the Bills, after all. No one is going to give up a third rounder for him. Also, it seems to me that the crazy trades seem to happen in-season, when borderline teams with high expectations become a little desperate. I know that wasn't the Bears, but I also felt like they believed they needed to show their fanbase that their highly drafted QB could look like an NFL qb once he had a cast of real receivers.

This whole thing got me thinking. With regard to 13 seconds, there was a very simple solution that I'm pretty sure would have worked, and the Bills did the opposite of it. Rush 3, match up 4 DBs at the line vs. the KC receivers in press, have 4 behind them to clean up if anyone breaks through, and HOLD, HOLD, HOLD in the most obvious ways against every receiver for 2 plays. That eats up 10 seconds and forces a hail mary from their own 35. Given that I'm thinking of this makes me really wonder about the Bills' coaching in situations like that.

Trading him for a fourth just isn't worth it - he's at least as good as a late second/early 3rd round vet DT who met draft expectations. He is a disappointment, but he will at least give at least 3-4 high impact games a year when healthy. The Tim Settles of the world aren't going to give you that. Plus he does have the ability to beat his man in mano y mano situations given his quicks. They made their bed and need to lie in it, hoping he plays for that big contract that secures his retirement years next season.

It is worth looking at the numbers. CBs don't do so well with regard to returning from ACL injuries. You have to go to the chart at the bottom because the top-line numbers conflate all DBs (CBs and safeties). 2 years after an acl tear, 29 percent are still in the league, and 3 years it's 28 percent. Not saying he can't come back to full strength, but the numbers are the numbers: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/23259671221079637 Here is a screen shot of the chart.

Mostly agree, but Devonta Smith is fricking good. And he only ran a 4.48. Agreed. At 27, you're not going to get a fully clean player, so I'd bet on a guy with the highest upside.

Unrelated point, but I noticed that the Cincy corners were pounding Bills receivers at the line and in a way that could have been called a penalty (hands to face, etc.). KC did it to the Bills in 2020, and then TB did it KC in the SB. The holds and PIs get called in the playoffs, albeit at a lower rate, but the stuff that happens at the line seems to never get called once the playoffs roll around. Playing zone off coverage like the Bills always do -- giving free releases to the likes of Tyreek Hill, Waddle (who if he had a better QB and better hands should have had over 150 yards receiving), and Chase -- seems to me a bad strategy for the postseason. Either that or they have no faith that their CBs can keep up. Point is, their scheme is dubious in the postseason vs. good QBs. It works against running qbs in wind games (Lamar Jackson), but that's never going to be the norm. I mean, Philip Rivers, who couldn't throw the ball 40 yards in the air by that point, absolutely carved them up in the postseason. And the Pats simply had terrible receivers last year with a weak-armed QB. Versus Burrow and Mahomes, forget about it. I think they'd also struggle in the postseason vs. Herbert and Lawrence if they insist on predominantly playing off.

This should include the penalties too. It also doesn't include the Cincy game, where he was being lit up like an Xmas tree. I know the game didn't count, but his performance was not good. The reason they were below their average was because they got off to such a big lead and realized they could matriculate down the field at a more leisurely pace on almost every possession. That game was the opposite of a shootout. It was a curb-stomping in which the situation dictated ball control/long drives to simply end the game. Plus the Bills' defense had no answers.

The Dolphins put up 15 points (they were gifted 16 by the Bills offense and ST) and averaged less than 4 yards per play! The QB had a rating of 31.

Good post, but Edmunds was great against Miami. He had four pass breakups. He also had 12 tackles vs Cincy.

Honestly, I think Daboll reined him in a bit and had the force of personality to make him play with more discipline. Allen actually said this in his season-ending press conference: “I got to be better for him, and especially when he gives me some shot plays,” Allen said. “I turned the ball over too many times this year. Didn't really bite us all that much, only losing three games in the regular season. But there's opportunities where it could have. And just taking a deep dive into that and understanding defenses as well as I can and just trying to make the right play moving forward and allow this offense to continue being out in the field.” Think about that. Allen had tons of shot plays this year and did pretty well in that area. Yet that’s what he’s talking about, not the slants and screens that failed too often. It’s the other stuff that’s the problem.

I thought you were suggesting he wasn’t getting interviews because he is old. My bad.

DK Metcalf, Davonte Adams, Terry McLaurin, … lots of good guys have been taken on day 2.

He is old. His scheme is very old hat and not innovative (not necessarily a bad thing but also not a thing that “sells” you). He wasn’t particularly successful in Minnesota (21-32-1). And 11 of the past 12 championship game coaches and 8 of the last 8 SB coaches will have been offensive ones. Owners look at the numbers and want offensive guys. Why? He is not that old. He has also overseen only one legit defense in his years as a DC: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/AnarLo0.htm

He didn’t! Lamb was drafted at 17.

The numbers show that Josh was pretty substandard vs the blitz this year, which shouldn’t be happening to an elite talent getting more experienced every year.

I can’t see Johnston falling out of the top 12 (at worst).

There are no rules against it, but bear in mind that any team which does something like that is going to have to give him an even BETTER deal to get to a new deal. The thing is, the $11 million is fully guaranteed, and his agent isn’t going to take anything that isn’t as good as that on a per year basis. If the deal offered is worse on a per annum basis, the agent will rightfully tell the player to play the season out and bet on himself. He has been truly elite in some games over the past two years, and I believe that the pectoral injury he suffered really hampered his game down the stretch this year. When he was healthy, he was blowing up a lot of plays. The Bills don’t beat Detroit without him. Given that the money is guaranteed, you’re willing to have the Tim Settles and Mike Loves of the world over Oliver? Because that’s what it boils down too. You’re paying Oliver regardless.