dave mcbride

I think the Bills lose this one but I also don't think it's crippling.

Not "at best" - just "average, plain and simple". His team is 20-17 with him at the helm, and his passer rating are consistently in the band between 10 and 18. Not sure why people feel the need to add the negative qualifier "at best" given that we know have 2.5 seasons of work to judge him on.

Taylor is 12th in passer rating and 18th in total QBR - basically, smack dab in the middle of the league. This is pretty much what we expected based upon past performance. It could be a lot worse.

Yep - Saints is a free swing, although given past history for both the Bills and McDermott vs. the Saints, the free swing is against Clayton Kershaw.

Yup. Go Stafford!

Jax's remaining schedule: Chargers at home at Browns at Cardinals (who don't have a qb!) Colts at home Seahawks at home (I can see them losing this one, but it's a tossup) Texans at home at SF at TN

They've faced Brees-led teams twice and have been destroyed. McDermott's defenses have mostly been destroyed too (29 ppg), although the Panthers did win a couple of 41-38 games. The Bills offense isn't capable of racking up 35+ points, and in any event the Saints D is much improved.

If the Bills are 8-7 going in, it won't be meaningless because a 9-7 team should get in. The AFC is very lopsided this year. The top is good, but the rest of it is quite poor. If Miami is out of it (and I expect they will be in week 17), that's obviously good for the Bills.

In my opinion, it'll come down to Buffalo, TN, and the Ravens. Miami is a bad team and I'm discounting them. Jax is likely to win either 11 or 12 games based upon their remaining cream puff schedule. I think TN wins 9 or 10; their final game against Jax may be meaningless to Jax because they'll have clinched yet still not have a chance at a bye. As I said in another thread, the Baltimore game against Detroit is huge. If Baltimore wins, I see them getting to 9-7, and if they lose, I see them at 8-8. One and possibly two 9-7 teams should get in.

The Bills have struggled mightily in Miami of late. Re the Pats DVOA, we both know that it'll be higher at the end of the season. They're likely to win 13 games -- and they still might not get a bye! If they lose to Pitt (the only game I see them losing the rest of the way), they're going to lose out to a 13-3 Chiefs team (who has a RIDICULOUSLY easy schedule the rest of the way) and Pitt based on head to head.

The Saints are a flat-out better team with a better coach (not that McDermott is bad!), and in 11 games against McDermott defenses, the Saints have averaged 29 points. The Bills are 0-4 against NO this century and were destroyed the last two times they played them (with Brees carving them up with ease). I expect a loss, but of course on any given Sunday ... The Chargers game will be huge.

The Bills have four probable losses coming up (NO, NE twice, and KC), two probable victories (Miami and Indy at home), and two tossups. I think 9-7 gets in this season, but I also think that there will be 3 contenders for two 9-7 slots. We really need Detroit to beat Baltimore in Baltimore, but that game is a real tossup. If Baltimore wins, I think they get to 9-7 based upon a pretty easy schedule. I think TN ends up either 10-6 or 9-7; it may be the case that Jax, which I think will win 11 or 12 games, may rest everyone in week 17 against TN given that they'll have the division clinched with 11 wins (they have a ridiculously easy schedule going forward). I also think that NE, Pitt, and KC all win 13 games. Anyway, it may come down to conference records for Baltimore and Buffalo. I have the Bills going 7-5 in conference assuming they beat the Chargers and Miami on the road. If the Ravens beat Detroit, they'll go 7-5 according to my predictions. Not sure what the next tiebreaker is ...

I don't know if it was merited; lots of elite talents complain about lack of touches, and he wasn't that bad about it. Frankly, I don't care that much either. I think it's a manufactured controversy, truth be told. That stuff doesn't matter to me much.

You're asking me to make a value judgment, which I'm not going to to do. I'm merely responding to posted stats that don't factor in game contexts that skew the numbers. If you're going to post numbers like that, add context.

After yesterday's performance, it's looking like the Bills will be getting a 5th rounder ...

I am not talking about his comments; I'm talking about measurable facts.

I don't disagree with your assessment of his play, but it's not true that scouts were high on him because of his pass rushing ability. They liked him for other reasons, but I think those reasons amounted to "second-third round reasons." The Bills overdrafted him, just like Denver overdrafted Ayers. If you're going to draft a DE in round one, they should be have the physical talent to present a real pass rushing threat.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. In 2016, Watkins either didn't finish a number of games, or was on a pitch count because of the foot. Hence his target numbers were necessarily down on a per game average. Same goes for 2015, when he left 2 games early (Miami and Cincinnati).

That wasn't his perceived strength. Virtually every scouting report highlights his run d and says he might struggle as a pass rusher. EDIT: Start here -- http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/shaq-lawson?id=2555252

He was drafted for Ryan's 3-4 scheme in which DEs set the edge. He was essentially the anti-Mario - a player whose game was run D and setting the edge; his stoutness would also allow the pass rushers behind him to get to the QB. He is miscast in this new scheme and is basically a black hole on pass rushing plays. He's not horrible, but he plays like a mid-third rounder. I strongly suspect that Ryan was the force behind this pick given the Clemson connection. If there is one comparison, I'd say it's Robert Ayers. Ayers was drafted 18th overall and people raved about his ability to play the run coming out of Tennessee. They also projected that he'd evolve into a good pass rusher, which never really happened. He's decent, but not great. I suspect that Lawson's career will end up like his. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AyerRo99.htm

I'll stand by what I said earlier: the Bills had to win last night if they were to make the playoffs. I know that sounds extreme, and no one would be happier than me if I turn out to be wrong, but I look at their upcoming schedule and think, "ugh." Payton has coached against the Bills twice and absolutely destroyed them. He also played against McDermott defenses in Carolina 10 times, and averaged 27 points per game against them. Carolina won 6 out of those ten, but basically couldn't stop Brees except on two occasions. EDIT: As DC in Philly, McDermott faced Payton's Saints once, and the Philly D gave up 48 points. So in 11 faceoffs against Payton, McDermott's defenses have given up an average of 29 points.

His rating was at 109.8 before garbage time. He went down by a point after that.

DE G LB with pass rush ability DT QB speed WR Third CB TE

they were down by 3 at halftime because of a pretty inexcusable fumble by Matthews. It should have been 10-10.

Yup, although I do think that the way this team is currently built, they're going to outperform their talent level when playing at home. The rah-rah stuff actually does seem to be an asset in Orchard Park. On the road, though, it's useless, and can't cover up the talent deficit. Let's not forget that they were gifted a defensive TD on an absolutely terrible call in Atlanta.