dave mcbride

They're actually in the playoffs if the season ends today. My hopes are not up, but I am conscious of how bad the AFC is right now.

It's not really wishful thinking. It's recognition of how bad the middle of the pack in the AFC is. Miami lost 40-0 to Baltimore the last time they played! They are a bad team, although I am certainly not chalking up the Bills game in Miami as a win. The Chargers find new ways to lose every week; they are bad. Indy is bad. The Bills have shots in all four of those games despite being not very good. Aside from the Ravens, who has a realistic shot to go 9-7 besides the Bills? The Ravens will not end up better than 9-7 either. A 9-7 team will get in.

In the midst of all this dismal play, let's not forget two things: the Bills have a very reasonable shot to go to 6-4 on Sunday, and they have a decent shot to make the playoffs with a 9-7 record. The loss to the Saints was embarrassing, but it *was* to an NFC team. Going into Sunday's game, that's the game that was least harmful in terms of picking up a loss. Beat LA, Miami twice, and Indy, and they're duking it out with Baltimore for the final playoff spot. There really is no one else if that happens. The Jets are out of it, Miami will be out of it if the Bills beat Miami twice, Indy and Houston are out of it, Cincy and Cleveland are out of it, the Broncos are out of it, Chargers will be out of it the Bills beat them (they'll have seven losses and lose the head to head), and the Raiders will be out of it because they will lose to NE and KC in KC. The Bills have the head to head against Oakland. Basically, if the Bills take care of business against three teams that are really no better than them (but not much worse, if at all), they will make the playoffs if the Ravens lose to Detroit and GB. That is a huge if, of course. Below is the Ravens schedule the rest of the way. It is unfortunately very easy. If they beat GB and lose to Detroit (or vice versa) and the rest of my predictions hold, they'll go in because they'll have a better conference record (8-4) than the Bills (7-5). You hope against hope that the Browns at home will put up a battle against them, but I wouldn't count on it. They should beat GB, but it is in GB and it's not as if the Ravens are a great team. That said, they're coming off a bye and facing a team starting Brett Hundley. At Green Bay (50/50) At home against Houston (win) At home against Detroit (50/50) At the Steelers (loss) At the Browns (win) At home against Indy (win) At home against Cincy (win)

Saying people that you're engaging with know nothing about football is not a wise way to debate. Regarding Dareus' pass rush ability, it is the case that through 2014, he was one of the best interior pass rushers in the league. He was misused by Ryan, and moreover he has not played up to his immense ability since the beginning of the 2015 season. But the talent is presumably still there - a coach simply needs to get through to him. Maybe Marrone does. We'll find out soon.

This is flat out false. Interior pass rush is what has made good d-lines great in recent years. It's how you beat Brady. Just look at Denver last night - they lost their interior pass rush from a couple of years ago and they were destroyed. The Giants destroyed Brady in 2 Super Bowls via interior DTs who could collapse the pocket. Watch what Seattle does with Michael Bennett on a weekly basis or Leonard Williams with the Jets now.

Re year 4: if they're not good by year 3, i expect they'll be gone. Given them a year 4 after three bad ones would be similar to the Gus Bradley situation. That tends not to work out.

That's why the team should be willing to trade up. Staying put and adding a DT or LB or whatever is not going to change the team's trajectory in the slightest.

I think you're probably right. Gregg Williams got 3, Mularkey 2 (although he quit), Jauron 3.5, Gailey 3, Jauron 2, and Ryan 2. Three is the median.

Great post. Thanks.

Hard to say - so much of it depends on the talent and how other teams regard the qbs. An elite QB is worth everything, and teams at the high end of the draft order generally have bad qbs. Trading the farm for a genuinely elite QB is not a dumb thing to do. The teams to look at are Chicago, SF, Indy, Cincy, and Houston. All have their qbs, and all could be drafting in the top 10. The Browns will take a qb #1 overall (that's not even debatable). Other bad teams who need a qb include the Giants, the Chargers (Rivers is declining), the Ravens, the Jets, and AZ. Beating SD will hurt the Bills chances, but since they still have a legit shot at getting to 9-7 and making the playoffs, they shouldn't start sucking for a qb yet. Indy, the 2 miami games, and the Chargers games are all winnable, although I'm not confident about Miami on the road. They will get destroyed by the Pats twice and by KC. The big wild card in all of this is Kirk Cousins. He's a legit franchise QB, and Washington can't franchise him again.

The picks they traded for in rounds 1-3 will all be very late. Every single one.

Ha! It's classic Bills luck for their extra first rounder to be KC's pick, their extra second rounder to be LA's pick, and their third rounder to be Philly's pick. They traded their own 3rd rounder for Benjamin.

Tell that to Philly and LA.

I think his issue is arrogance rather than partying. He's from a very well-educated family and I think he brings a noticeable degree of arrogance with him. Manziel seems like the wrong negative comparison. I'd say the better comparison is Jay Cutler/Aaron Rodgers. UCLA is a 2-9 team with a regular qb, and they'll get to .500 with him. PS - with regard to Rosen, something tells me that he's not a McDermott/Beane type of guy. If that's true, I think that's a shame because he is very good and you have to be able to put up with some difficult players if you're going to maximize talent on the team.

I'm pretty skeptical of Walter Football, and I can find any number of articles from more reputable sources saying differently: http://www.ocregister.com/2017/08/28/ucla-qb-josh-rosen-is-chosen-for-a-good-reason-5/ . Is he arrogant? Probably. Is that disqualifying? No. Like you, I think he has Rodgers potential. We shall see!

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/10/17/2018-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-qb-rankings-sam-darnold-josh-rosen-lamar-jackson-josh-allen

Talk about exaggeration! Link?

Jerry Jones makes Goodell look like a paragon of virtue.

If history is guide, then trading a fleet of picks, a la both Philly and LA in 2016, is definitely tihe right way to go.

Bingo -- 'You don't want to start creating bad habits or start doubting yourself, and that's what happens when games like this kind of go back to back and you start seeing a routine of things happening," linebacker Lorenzo Alexander said. You can't help but wonder whether Alexander and other senior defenders have reached a point where they simply don't physically have what it takes to do anything more than just wear a uniform. But that's far from the only issue. The younger guys look lost and confused. And McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier appear helpless as they watch from the sideline, offering nothing in the way of schematic answers to put people where they need to be to make stops.' From a good piece by vic carucci: http://buffalonews.com/2017/11/12/plain-and-simple-bills-defense-is-a-full-blown-disaster/

Good take.

I think he was saying no excuses for taylor at least for today, and he's right.

Taylor was horrible today. No doubt about that.

The D gets zero pressure because the talent level on the d-line is abysmal. Hughes is the best of the bunch by far, and he's not even really average for a pass rushing specialist DE.

Kirby is one of the best and most informed posters on this site. Childish insults are a weak way to debate.