dave mcbride

Pretty interesting. As you gradually increase the importance of the “garbage time filter” for the Bills offense, it gets significantly worse (and Allen declines too). The defense doesn’t do so well either, although weirdly if you max out the GT filter it goes from being bottom-half-of-the-league-defense with the filter at 2/3 to a top D. The other thing is that if you choose, say, the last 7-8 weeks with the garbage time filter maxed out, it has the Bills ranked 27th in offense. https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/ I can’t say I understand it all, but it feels reasonably accurate given the Bills’ struggles in close games.

Agree, but I’d add that Marv was very good at a skill that is very under-rated—capably managing the personalities that comprise an entire NFL squad, many of who are borderline psychos.

Nope re: Williams. His cap hit next season is $8.9 million if he’s on the roster and $3.6 million if they dump him. That’s $5.3 million in savings. A team-friendly deal, basically. He is not going to get any better, and I’d get rid of him. The only reason to keep him is to have him as a viable backup at RT, but isn’t that why they drafted the guy from Miami? https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2022/ Belichick certainly has, but he is also someone no one should ever be compared to. He is sui generis.

Totally disagree. This team was by everyone’s estimation a SB contender. They have gone 3-4 in their last seven games and in the process have lost to their archrival because they were outcoached, got blown out at home by a team they beat in the playoffs last year, and lost to the worst franchise in the league over the last decade because their vaunted offense couldn’t score a TD.

Re funbles in practice, they’re not hitting much, particularly at this time of the season, so I would be surprised if players are fumbling much there.

Well, the common thread with breida and mackenzie is immediate trips to the doghouse after fumbling, which is really short-sighted.

Football Outsiders eviscerates the Bills: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/walkthrough/2021/buffalo-bills-vs-chumpzilla @BADOLBILZ, check it out, especially the comment about McKenzie. ”And if you (understandably) hate silly metaphors and crotchety columnist wisdom: the Bills rank 28th in late-and-close DVOA on offense and 26th on defense.” ”She's punishing the Bills for their lack of creativity, precision, and ferocity. If there's any such thing as an "it factor," some combination of intangibles that converts into an extra dozen yards or so in a close game, the Bills lack it. That deficiency keeps roaring to life and making the Bills' DVOA and reputation look like a cardboard skyscraper.”

I felt that they thought they could treat it as a “mask tendencies” game because the plan was a very generic josh allen-spread-pass scheme and they didn’t seem to alter it all throughout the game. I got the sense watching that game that the bills always felt that they were going to pull it out using their base plays.

That was the one game where i felt the offensive staff mailed it in. My hunch is that they didn’t want to give away any plays they really liked to upcoming opponents and assumed that they’d overwhelm a terrible Jax team on talent differential alone. They bizarrely kept the same approach all game even though it wasn’t working and the game was within a fg throughout.

He benched robinson for a fumble and lawrence apparently confronted him mid-game about it: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/12/11/report-urban-meyer-had-heated-argument-with-marvin-jones-called-his-assistant-coaches-losers/ I of course thought of McDermott, who seems to think fumbles should never, ever happen (news flash: they do) and if they do the back has to go to the doghouse. I know a lot of coaches do this, but it’s pretty reactionary assuming the player isn’t a problem fumbler.

What an ass.

Jacobs is actually averaging 3.8 ypc this season.

I get that.

Cassel was HORRIBLE the season before Daboll arrived in KC, and Smith was NOT the other QB the year Daboll was there. Brady Quinn was, and he started 8 games. Smith arrived after Daboll left. Cassel was never any good and whatever success he had was a result of him playing on a couple of very talented units (including a Pats team coming off a 16-0 season) that masked how weak he was. The year KC had a winning record with him (2010; he was terrible in 2009), Jamaal Charles rushed for an ungodly 6.4 ypc and they had the best pass defense in the league, holding opponents to a 78.1 rating. When they faced a good opponent in the playoffs (the Ravens) that year, they were utterly steamrolled, generating only 53 yards(!) of passing offense. He was statue with an arm that was decidedly less than average. I watched that guy for years, and the reason he kept getting gigs was because he was able to run on the fumes of that Pats 2008 season. If Brady hadn't been hurt that year, they would have gone 14-2.

I think they basically assign the same weight to a second and six play from the Bills own 29 yard line in the second quarter with the Bills leading 13-0 as to a 3rd and 8 play from the opponent's 37 yard line with 3:40 to go in the game with the Bills down by 6. On the first, he holds his block. On the second, he matadors a pass rusing DT into Allen's lap. Those two situations are not the same and should not be treated as such. But that's what they appear to do.

Oh man. Williams has been awful. What are they analyzing??

I am not sure that's it. Williams got paid his last big guaranteed money and Dawkins had a very bad case of covid that has probably affected him (although he played reasonably well vs NE). Those are the two real downgrades this season. Morse is basically the same player as before, and the rest of the poor interior line play is a product of a lot of injuries and reshuffling. Not sure it has anything to do with coaching.

I'm not justifying the pick. I do think he's better than average, at least in terms of skill set because he's an excellent receiver.

I think Harris is fine; the line is really bad. Similar situation to the Bills, although it was known before this season that they were bad (unlike the Bills’ line).

You should not make this argument about Daboll without at least mentioning that until Allen came along, he had OC’d the worst batch of qbs this century: Brady Quinn (on two different teams!), a rookie Colt McCoy, Seneca Lewis, Derek Anderson (again twice), Chad Henne, a decrepit Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore, the corpse of Matt Cassel, and Nathan Peterman. When Moore is your star of the bunch, you ain’t gonna produce.

He was a terrible choice as a first round pick. He is average — 4.2 ypc over the course of his 3-year career.

Don't disagree with any of that, although if there's a true blue chip interior lineman who you think could help your quarter-of-a-billion-dollar QB, I'm not opposed to that at all. That said, I truly have no idea what the talent out there is like. I'm not advocating drafting a guy for need; just looking for a stud at guard center that you can build the interior of the line around. Maybe there aren't any. I mean, Luck was getting KILLED because of terrible o-line play, and Indy got Nelson and Kelly. Luck decided to retire of course, but they would have helped him immensely if he stayed. As it turns out, they helped Rivers a ton last year and have made Wentz look like a decent qb again after a terrible year in Philly.

I will fully admit that I don't know about the draftee talent level of the various positions I've highlighted. But I have had it with scrap heap FA pickups for interior o-line. It simply has to get better. It will kill the Bills over time, just like what has happened to Pittsburgh's line in the last couple of years has defanged their offense. Also, yes, Ford sucks, but HE WAS DRAFTED AS A TACKLE. If he was a really good tackle, he would have gone higher. There were real doubts about his game before that draft, and the Bills unfortunately were not one of the doubters. If a Quentin Nelson is available, you take him. I'm not saying there is a guy like that available (he's unique), of course. But the middle-of-the-o-line issue has to end. If a Ryan Kelly or a Travis Frederick or a Zack Martin is there in the 20s? Personally, I'd take him. Again, though, I have no idea how good any of these guys coming out are, and I'm certainly not advocating overdrafting low ceiling players. I just don't know the talent pool.

I get that, but if there is that guy in the low to mid-50s -- e.g., a Jonathan Stewart type -- they should take him. Bear in mind that I have us drafting a lot of interior linemen here, including in round 1. Having said this, I have no idea what the RB talent is in college right now.

I think there's very little chance Daboll gets hired as a HC anywhere. He's still a Belichick guy, identity-wise (none of whom have succeeded in the past), and this season combined with all of the bad statistical seasons prior to Allen are going to make it impossible to sell him to a fan base.