Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

When you trade draft picks a year out they are figured to be worth one round lower. So to "balance the equation" you need to take the value of the Bills 9th pick in the first round plus the value of the ninth pick in the 2nd and the 5th round, since it's next years first and fourth Add them up, then compare to the value of the 4th overall in the first round, that shoud roughly balance it. Obvliosly neither team know where the Bill's we be picking next year, but since there are 32 total picks and they chose 9th this year, the odds are in favor of those being alower pick next year, just because more room to improve vs regress. For two reasons you take one round lower in value, the unknowns of where the pick will be, and because it's a year out devalues the picks

So have to ask, do guys like Kiper and McShae really understand what NFL teams want and see in players? Or are they too busy watching college games and can't see how that translates to the NFL. Therefore whom they think should be high or low draft picks doesn't agree with what the GM's actually do. In many cases they agree, but when they differ then the draft guru's write columns ripping the teams.

And I'm always surprised that people continually speculate that there is no agreement when they know nothing about it themselves, only what's been stated in the papers for the past ten years or so. So unless you have access the the trust and all of his estate documents, you don't know anything more than the people that have all this wishful thinking. I'm not sure whether to laugh or beat my head against the wall from reading your post. The only difference between all the wishful thinkers and you is apparently you know whats going on but they don't at least according to you. I guess laughing wins out due to the pure hypocrisy of this post. Maybe that's too strong of a word here, but is amazing how you can condemn others for doing exactly what you're doing, speculating!

New ownership aside unlikely they'd be fired after two seasons. Could mean Marrone dumps the ST or OC but likely he'll be back for a 3rd year. New owners come in, all bets are off, they could make the playoffs and still be gone. Depends alot on who the owner is. If it were a football guy, all of sudden Dan Marino is part of a new ownership group, then they could be gone regardless of record. If a guy like Jacobs, or even Trump, then more likely coaches remain particularly Whaley and Brandon, though Russ may be in a different role if the new owner has their own president in waiting.

If EJ has a real poor year, more than likely they'll blame it on coaching (and could be correct) fire the OC and bring in another one and give EJ at least one more year. You don't give up on a #1 draft pick after two years. He would have to have and absolutely horrible season to do that.

I wouldn't be surprised ot see Unga the starter in game #1 and maybe even the rookie too by Sept.

Not that he's a huge name but either Urbik or Legursky. I think the four guards next year are the rookie Cryil, the FA they signed Williams, JJ Unga, and whichever of the two isn't cut. I recall reading late last year how Marrone liked Unga and also a late season signing tackle, can't recall his name

Read many comments that this was a bad deal because if EJ has a terrible year, they don't have a 1st round pick next year to go get another QB. More than likely unless he were to suffer a career ending injury or his play is absolutely horrific, he'll be back for a 3rd year no matter what. Likely what will happen is they'll bring in another Offense Coord who supposedly will have the answers. Another bad year could then see replacing him in 2016 draft, but unlikely they get rid of him after two years no matter what.

If the biggest problem we have offensively is tight end, we'll be in great shape. Between Chandler, Moeski, Gragg, plus Smith and the other guy we re-signed for blocking , we're in pretty decent shape.

Per your brainstorm, it would take seven years to acquire these four superstars (and have no pick again in year 8) In eight years of gettign these superstars, as was pointed out, you would hope to have seen improvement by year 3 or 4 which means lower picks and hence the need to give up much more to move up. So that's the first problem. Second problem as also mentioned salary cap as by year eight, many of these guys will be on their second contract. Another problem once these guys are on second contract would be keeping them all. If you're improving whole that superstar can make a big difference and get you over the top, you also need young cheap talent for depth too which the draft provides.

Conversely talent makes a QB like Brees look better, so could se ea similar thing here with EJ. Not saying we have the talent here of the Seahawks, but don't think it's much of a stretch to let Wilson type production from EJ. WE likely would need a little better than that though to make up for being weaker in other areas, but the gap is narrowed.

I recall at the end of last season Marrone talking about how good these two late season pickups were doing., Think One was Unga. Was the other Mcclain? I think both of them may be around, possibly even starting at RG

If EJ sucks, do you honestly think whomever you're bringing it wit ha late round pick is going to look better than either Tuel or our #2 backup, can't even think of his name. Either of them, with a year experience under their belt in the system would be better than some late round pickup.

Did the QB from Georgia get picked up? Sorry after three hours working in the yard in 8 heat too lazy to look it up myself.

So why is that? What are the rules as to when you do or don't get picks?? From what I can figure the rules seem to be if the player left Buffalo, there are no picks period!

OP is assuming the Stevie pick becomes a third, then the B Brown pick becomes a 2016 pick as we no longer have a 4th rounder to send to the Eagles, so then would have three 3rd round picks in 15. If it is SF' 4th rounder likely would be a rather low pick, not that high or low matters much in 4th round

At the end of the season Marrone was talking up those two late season signings JJ Unga and someone else, so he may be the starting guard, and this kid takes over in a year or two

Quote to my better half: "Next year we can go out on the first night of the draft. I don't need to stay home and watch!"

What kind of amazes me about the whole thing is the amount of intel going on from team to team, talking with Jax knowing who they likely were going to pick. Guess this stuff isn't as secretive as you'd think.

I beleive the sarcasm is directed towards all the people, both on this board, and the national draft experts who last year were stating that this years QB class was going to be so great. Bridgewater was going number 1, may as well start up a suck for Luck Bridgewater campain. A year later, seemed QB's were the least valued overall position i nthe 1st round, certainly at the top. Bortles went high, but many are questioning it too. Same as all the people on this site claiming the Watkins trade was bad as if EJ fails, next years QB class is going to be great and now we have no 1st round pick. Well just as a year ago this years class was going to be great, we know as little about next years too.

So then you take a QB the following year. At worst it sets you back one additional year. On top of that, EJ would have to look extremely horrendous to give up on him after two years. Most likely you'd still give him a 3rd year regardless.

LOL!

From what I've always read on the value chart picks a year out are worth one round lower, so it's basically the 9th, and a 2nd and 5th.

A 1st and 4th a year out, pretty good move

If I'm the new owner of the Bills: I'm going to get me one of those 29 YO girlfriends like Donald Sterling has, just make sure she's one that doesn't own a smart phone.