Beck Water

Oh, Dear. How many TE (first round or not) normally line up as X or Y receivers and find success there?

I'm not sure "signed a second contract with the team that drafted them" is a good criterion to decide if a player is a "hit" or a "miss". Take, for example, Edmunds. Did he sign a 2nd contract with the team that drafted him? No. Was it because he was a "miss"? No, he started 5 years for the Bills and didn't sign a 2nd contract only because he made himself a very high priced FA, and we prioritized re-up'ing our 1st round QB (drafted that same year) and 1st round DT. And (for example) 2019 QB Daniel Jones counts as a "hit" because he was offered a 2nd countract - but do Giants fans count him as a hit? Do we?

I'm going to pick on two of my favorite posters here: On 4/26/2018 at 8:40 PM, HappyDays said: God I actually think we'll start Peterman this year Obviously, both of these gentlemen were proven correct. We DID start Peterman that year, including for the Season Opener (for half a game) and It was a Clown Show

I think we agree far more than we disagree - we certainly agree playing the boundary receiver especially against press man is not Samuel's best "jam". In fact if you look at the charts on Nextgen Stats, looks to me like relatively few from the LOS and ? None? on the boundary? From what I've seen though, calling him a "rich man's McKenzie" is either giving McKenzie too much credit or selling Samuel way too short as the player he's been in the NFL, or both. I think he's a far better route runner than McKenzie evolved into his last 2 years with the Bills (and he did evolve), tracks the ball better, and has far better YAC skills. McKenzie was a glorified gadget guy who flubbed his opportunity to show out as a slot; Samuel is (or has become) a legit slot receiver who has (or had, in Carolina) quickness enough to run gadget stuff. But then, I thought Harty might be an upgrade on McKenzie for route running AND gadget plays and how did that work out, just to put my opinions in context, I can and have been off And again, we agree boundary or x receiver is just not Samuel's jam.

Don't forget this move also cost the Chiefs their 2018 #1. Otherwise good analysis and I agree with you. Imma say if Ben Allbright is reporting it confidently, there's a good chance Beane has been talking to Denver about Pick #12.

I thought (I could be wrong) that NFL.com used the official data from the combine. They typically lack data from players who didn't participate in drills at the combine, for example, even if data from their college pro days is out there. Of course a typo is possible anywhere, I guess. I'm not paying so much attention to his height and weight, as to his scouting report because Zierlein usually says stuff I nod about if I come back to it in a couple years. I "get it" that there's an argument to be made for BPA, but taken to its extreme obviously you could wind up with a team full of DE and no DT or something. So "need" has to crawl into there somehow. Like many here, my perception of the Bills current best receivers (Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir) is that all of them do their best work with a free release, and none of them are at their best trying to win a release against press man on the boundary. Samuel can do it, but I think I read his most recent years have been ~75% of his snaps from the slot. Shakir can play on the boundary but at best "he has to demonstrate" against press man and his short arms handicap him there. IMO, we really have lacked someone with the tools to win against "sticky" physical coverage even with Diggs on the team the last couple of years and it's cost us in playoffs. It certainly cost us in 2019 when our top receivers were 5'10 John Brown and 5'8" Cole Beasley, and Allen wound up directing critical throws to Duke Williams and Pat DiMarco in the playoffs 'cuz Brown and Beasley were being erased. So when I read stuff like " lacks play strength and release quickness to defeat a quality NFL press" and "lacks the physical tools to catch when contested and needs to prove he can hold up to a more physical brand of football" as well as "needs to improve efficiency and quickness getting off the ball. Lack of hand strength gets him bullied on contested catches......Takes reps off when he’s not expecting the throw to come his way......Fails to adjust his speed to ball placement consistently enough." I have a hard time seeing him as the right match of "need-adjusted BPA" or whatever it is being called now. Of course, as Beane has pointed out, there are different ways to fill needs, so if he falls to us and we've rated him as BPA because they have enthusiasm for his potential, So Be It but I'm going to have uncomfortable CJ Spiller flashbacks if the Bills trade up for the guy. I honestly can't pretend to know enough about college football to have a meaningful personal opinion about who we should draft, but I do have views about where the Bills current roster has shown itself lacking the previous season and likely to lack after new-league-year roster moves.

I don't know what is meant by "alpha" - that's usually a term used to reflect dominance, and a rookie really better have a more modest approach and, no matter how good he is, recognize the NFL equivalent of "that's nice sonny, but this here's the fleet" I personally hope the Bills draft someone who will be ready to step in play a majority of the snaps as the X receiver, if that's what you mean, because that's clearly where the gap in the Bills WR game is right now. I think I've queried you before regarding whether you're referring to Curtis Samuel as "a gadget guy that is good with the ball in his hands". If so, I continue to think you're seriously mispresenting a receiver who, except for the season he was on IR, has been playing >60% of the snaps and contributing >60 receptions and >600 yds 4 of his last 5 seasons (the 5th season being, IR). I agree he's not a boundary receiver, but he's way more than "a gadget guy", gadget guys don't take that many snaps or produce that much. WR, no. Receiver, yes. I don't know if you've noticed, but "#1 receiver" seems to be a bit like the term "franchise QB" we used to bruit around all the time when we didn't have one. It means different things to different people and folks argue about it without clarifying what it means to them or the chap they're talking with.

Gentle reminder that the 6th WR off the board is not necessarily the 6th best WR in the draft

Not according to nfl.com draft profiles https://www.nfl.com/prospects/xavier-worthy/3200574f-5274-1496-c9ca-5c4709faa05b Same point though

2) Great, just what we need, another smurf-y Z receiver that lacks the strength and the release to beat press man coverage at the X or Y position, to go with our stable of receivers who are best used playing off the LOS plus Mack "Savage" Hollins. Bills should 100% take their draft advice from Ty Dunne

Friendly reminder that we all wanted Beane to do his "due diligence" on trading in both directions.

Thought this was interesting - a scorecard for who has been the most and least accurate with the rumors https://walterfootball.com/draft2023rumorsresults.php Spoiler: that Charlie Campbell guy is pretty good

Another assessment of Beane's trade-up habits, this one from TBN by Ryan O'Halloran https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-nfl-draft/article_db2bf4ac-fe54-11ee-b5ab-47c3d31b4ca2.html The most interesting thing to me is that he rates Elam as a "push" resulting from a trade up. Anyway, it's an assessment based soley on the result (whether or not we got a great or a good player) and not on the opportunity cost (whether a great or good player might have been available at our original pick, and with the pick we used in the trade) Take it FWIW.

It depends a lot upon the context in which I meet them. If I'm just encountering them in passing, I wouldn't try to have a conversation. They have their schedule, I have mine. On the other hand, if we're near each other in the course of things for an extended time, I'll chat. Several years back we had a reserved camping spot next to a man who looked like he'd transplanted his entire Bills tailgating setup to a small state park on the Western shores of Lake Ontario - big Bills-themed canopy floored with Bills rugs, I forget what all else he had except a wife and several young kids who wanted to pet our Very Cheerful and Fluffy Dog. So of course after petting formalities were completed, we struck up a convo about the Bills and I asked if he ever hung out on Bills fan boards and mentioned TBD (he didn't). I've had a couple convos at airport gates and in line to buy fish From A Guy in the Virgin Islands, I don't recall if I mentioned TBD though. She's not a Keeper. Unless she makes REALLY GOOD wings that is.

I thought about starting a new thread, but it's appropriate here. Joe B starts his annual series on the draft https://theathletic.com/5430707/2024/04/22/buffalo-bills-2024-nfl-draft-files/ Some key points He compares and contrasts what Beane said in this presser vs 2022, when we traded up to draft Kaiir Elam: Joe points out the analogy to 2022, when top CB Tre White was injured and likely unavailable for the next season, #2 CB had left in FA, and we had a capable backup CB in Dane Jackson who had stepped up when asked (he makes the analogy to Diggs traded, #2 WR Davis left in FA, and Shakir as that capable 3rd WR: The result in 2022 was that the Bills not only drafted a CB, but they traded up to draft a CB. Joe B goes on to lay out Beane's track record as far as trading up: I will say that with the exception of Josh Allen where Beane steadily built draft capital prior to the draft and even worked a trade to move up 9 spots using a player, Beane's trade-ups are usually "use a 4th round pick to move up a few spots", not "Big Splash Trade Ups". Joe justifiably concludes that despite what he says, Beane is most likely to trade up based on past behavior. Joe does point out that the Bills are in a bit of a different spot this off-season. In the past several off seasons, most of the starting roster spots have pretty much been "locked down" prior to the draft, but this year, only 33 of 53 players returned. So IMO, there may be more chances for a 4th round pick to make the roster and contribute, making that pick more valuable to Beane and Beane less likely to trade it. Anyway, thought it was an interesting read, especially the analogy to 2022 and what Beane said before the draft about CB (praised the players we still had, pointed out his philosophy of build from the lines out) vs. his draft day actions (trading up for a CB) Edit: one of the things I like about Joe B even when I disagree with him, is that he's methodical and backs up his takes. In this case, he includes draft trade value info and assesses which teams would be plausible trade targets. I think the Athletic has some kind of cheap trial deal, or can be packaged with a Times subscription if one rolls that way.

I checked "coach" but I want to be the offensive/defensive assistant or QC assistant who self-scouts the team for trends, and scouts the upcoming opponents Not saying I'd be good enough, but all day with all the data would be my jam.

The problem with this "if Brady could just design plays that get him off the line unmolested" thing, is that we already have 3 guys on the roster who are great, if Brady could just design plays that get him off the line unmolested.

Shakir has high athleticism and a "standard"-ish height and weight for a WR. Skills like wicked breaks and jukes can be polished, and apparently Shakir spends his off season with Moulds polishing him. The main questionmark for him is that in the modern passing day since these measurables became publicly available, there's never been a boundary receiver with 29" arms. It's not "eyelashes" or "toes", it's a matter of the vocabulary of physical moves available to the guy when there's a DL with 31" arms grabbing him at the LOS or handfighting down the field.

Jesu, when you put it like that.....we need some receivers who can actually catch.

In the lab https://www.buffalobills.com/photos/in-the-lab-phase-one-of-2024-buffalo-bills-offseason-workouts#47cddda7-f3bf-49b7-b1fb-dbde801bb0aa Photo #22 Cam Lewis with no wrap and NO BRACE - whatever someone feels about Cam as a fan, ya feel good to see that Von Miller is participating

TIL the abbreviation emlos LOL Yeah, I was kind of conflating two different skills in my post A bit tired from gardening - @#$! Japanese anemones, those Greedy Guts. And I swear they put roots down like they're trying to go back to Japan, through the earth. One question is, can a guy learn not to be held up or jarred off his routes by physical play. We hope Kincaid can train for and work on that. We know he was a top basketball player in HS (National Champion AAU squad), which ought to help with that mindset. The other is, can a guy release off the LOS against press man playing outside. One of the skills Kincaid was said to have, and I see no lies, was "sweet feet" and the ability to burst into routes. That's one thing, the ability to do those things lined up outside, is something else. I do agree the Bills need someone who can do that (I think Mack Hollis can) and play WR with a higher degree of skill than, say, Sherfield who had his hands on that ball, dammit! (don't know that Mack Hollis can). Fundamentally, it seems as though on the Bills right now, all the receivers play best from the slot.

You know I agree with you on the Bills needing a boundry WR who can hold his own. But what makes that? Surely, Kincaid has the physical tools to be that type at 6'4" 246 lb with 32 5/8" arms? It's not unheard of - one of the things that makes TE like Kelce and previously, Gronkowski so dangerous was their ability to be physical back and actually push off in the guise of putting a hand out or hand fighting. It did show on his Draft Profile as a weakness - "Jarred off of his base by average contact" "Physical defenders are able to slow his routes." along with "Has enough speed to threaten vertically and across the field." Are the former, skills that can be learned, trained for, and coached up?

Oh, FFS. You said "I'm not sure what the point is". So I tried to explain. The false dichotomy between issuing an apology that isn't based on understanding the point, vs. "internalize and be eternally remorseful", is a bit much, don't you think? Ciao.

I'm looping back here because I watched it again, and this struck me, I want to know if it struck anyone else. Several times when asked about Diggs in an interview, Allen has said "I love him like a brother". Diggs has said the same about Josh, at least twice I think? Once on Up and Adams for sure. In this video, the videographer says "What's Up Brother?" Dawkins ("Seventeen for Life. I Mean That."): "Bro, what did you just say to me?" Shakir (Allen's hoped-for next fave target): "Don't Ever say that to me Again." Videographer to Dawkins: "Goodbye, Brother" (videographer screams as Dawkins turns back to go after him) Maybe they're riffing on Allen calling Diggs "Brother" and vice versa - "don't do ME like that!"

I mean, yes and no? In the plays we're talking about, Shakir is open BECAUSE the safety is glued to Diggs and Sherfield was open BECAUSE Diggs had 3 guys (I think) looking at him and the 2nd safety shaded to Shakir. Either Shakir steps up and becomes the guy they focus on and frees someone else, or we need a boundary guy the defense fears enough to blanket and leave Shakir open. The way I see it anyway. They don't have to be genius players, just guys who catch the football well enough and run routes well enough that DC's are "we better cover that guy or we're gonna look very stupid watching him WHUP WHUP WHUP into the EZ. Could they fear Hollins and Kincaid enough? One thing that struck me was how very physical the Chiefs DBs were being. They knocked the stuffing out of Cook a couple times and threw him yards off his route. Ditto Diggs, he was getting knocked around. Can Shakir handle that and provide enough of a threat? Can Kincaid?